2015 Wimbledon Final: Djokovic v. Federer II

[lindseywagners]

Did anybody else hear the espn commenters saying Roger is playing the best tennis of his career? He is playing best tennis since 2012, but really, of his career? An inspired Novak would have beaten Fed today. Andy played way too passive.

What is the basis of your (or anyone else on these boards, for that matter) argument that he is not close to playing the best he's ever played? I don't consider age or being "past his prime" (you didn't say this specifically, but those are two common things people mention when discussing this subject, but age and being "past his prime" don't mean a whole lot substance-wise) to be of relevance here. It's interesting because Roger said it was one of his best matches, Andy said he played very well himself, and the commentators all think he played the best he ever has.

When, specifically what matches, were some of his best, according to you? I think you could site the one against Roddick in Australia (think it was 2007) when he destroyed him, probably the '05 one against Safin also in Australia, maybe the Roddick night match at the US Open the one year (think it was 2007). There were plenty others though when the opponent gave "peak Roger" trouble. Heck, a 35-year old Agassi took a set off "prime Fed" in the US Open final in 2005 and even had him in a tie-break in the 3rd.

My overall point is this: I think people inflate Roger "in his prime" to something that wasn't much higher than the way he played yesterday.

Interested to hear comments.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As far as serving, I think this match is as good as his "prime matches'. As far as overall play, I don't think this match can compare to "his prime".

For example, in the second set, he had a break point against Andy which he (Fed) played well and finally he got the ball where he wanted and botched a DTL backhand which would have sealed the deal much early in the second set. Here is one basic difference. Prime Fed had a break point conversion rate of about 75% or higher. Modern Fed has this ranging from 25% to 60% at most. In the match against Andy, it was just 30%.

 

[shawnbm]

If you've watched federer a long time, he was very good yesterday--serving wise it was vintage. I don't think he moves as well to his forehand side as he did a few years ago, but he still has great court intelligence like in his dominant years. If he is playing well with confidence, he will likely beat just about anyone. That being said, I expect a letdown tomorrow and Novak to win in four close sets. I simply can't imagine Roger could serve that well or better in back to back matches.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you've watched federer a long time, he was very good yesterday--serving wise it was vintage. I don't think he moves as well to his forehand side as he did a few years ago, but he still has great court intelligence like in his dominant years. If he is playing well with confidence, he will likely beat just about anyone. That being said, I expect a letdown tomorrow and Novak to win in four close sets. I simply can't imagine Roger could serve that well or better in back to back matches.

Roger's serving in the match vs. Andy was not one off. He has been serving well since the first match in Halle. He has been broken only once since then. So, I don't see a reason why he can not maintain that.

 

[lindseywagners]

As far as serving, I think this match is as good as his "prime matches'. As far as overall play, I don't think this match can compare to "his prime".

For example, in the second set, he had a break point against Andy which he (Fed) played well and finally he got the ball where he wanted and botched a DTL backhand which would have sealed the deal much early in the second set. Here is one basic difference. Prime Fed had a break point conversion rate of about 75% or higher. Modern Fed has this ranging from 25% to 60% at most. In the match against Andy, it was just 30%.

Thanks for that break point stat. That's exactly what I was looking for.

 

[lindseywagners]

If you've watched federer a long time, he was very good yesterday--serving wise it was vintage. I don't think he moves as well to his forehand side as he did a few years ago, but he still has great court intelligence like in his dominant years. If he is playing well with confidence, he will likely beat just about anyone. That being said, I expect a letdown tomorrow and Novak to win in four close sets. I simply can't imagine Roger could serve that well or better in back to back matches.

"As he did a few years ago" - that would be like 2010, 2011 and those years were already past his "prime years" (this is when he started losing in quarters). So you're saying there was a step down from his prime (aka before May 2010), and then now another step down in the past few years?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Checked the odds again.

Novak --- 11/12 and Fed --- 11/10

Works out to Novak 52% and Fed 48%.

They have narrowed since opening at 55/45.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Uhm, kinda weird that my seeding sidenote would lead someone to claim that he's a guaranteed #2 (hehe, number two...)
Again: with that mass of grass points, Fed could well be helped in the seeding next year. if that makes the difference between #3 and #2 or being unseeded and #25? That depends on what he does from Monday on.


That said, one could actually probably calculate a guaranteed (or at least highly likely) seeding range (for Novak as well), because the points could well be enough to get a seeded position, even if they don't enter a tournament for a year after monday.

The formula is just used to adjust the seeded players. So if someone is not among the Top 32 entered for the event when the draw is made, he has no chance to get a seeding regardless of grass points. This year for example Kohlschreiber would have been seeded instead of I think Thiem if the formula was used for everyone.

You are correct. However, points earned in Wimbledon this year will come down only after the end of Wimbledon next year. So, even if Fed stops playing completely after this Wimbledon, he will have a ranking points of 1200 in his account when they determine the seedings. That 1200 is typically good enough to ensure that you are in top 32 of rankings charts and so he will be eligible for seeding boost by addition.

 

[BalaryKar]

I am being blurred by my love for both of these legends. One heart wants Fed, and another Nole. But looking at Fed's career, his window of a slam diminishing even than before and that Nole still has plenty, rooting for Fed to win it. If Fed brings the game as on Friday, expect him in 4.

 

[Kirijax]

So far the poll has 13 for Djokovic and 13 for Federer. Right down the middle!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

not voted yet, I'm going to though. still annoyed I didn't vote for fed in 3 in sf just because I didn't want to vote against a home player at Wimbledon.

 

[Federberg]

not voted yet, I'm going to though. still annoyed I didn't vote for fed in 3 in sf just because I didn't want to vote against a home player at Wimbledon.

Lol! I thought the semi would be either 3 or 4 in Roger's favour, but I didn't dare vote for fear of jinxing it. I'm not inclined to jinx the final either!

 

[Federberg]

Wow! They just showed the 2012 final again, with Andy's speech afterwards. I was actually tearing up :cry I really warmed to him after that. I was so happy when he won the next year. Good the Beeb channelled some TMF before the big event!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

went fedster in 3..if djokovic is having probs with kevin n gasquet then a red hot Federer could blow him away.

 

[tented]

Hello! Welcome to the Live Chat for the 2015 Wimbledon Mens final!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

hello..time for a final.

 

[tented]

Please join us in the Live Chat to discuss the match. Click on the green plus sign in the bottom left corner of your browser, and a separate window will open. Thanks!

 

[Tennisfan]

Yessss!!! The match i was waiting most for whole year after last wim final

 

[tented]

Who are you rooting for TF?

 

[Front242]

Not sure about the people voting Fed in 5. Have they seen his record in 5 set finals?!