crystalfire said:
britbox said:
I'm of the thinking that Wimbledon 2014 and 2015 are Roger's last chances for another major.
yea same.
It's quite difficult for me to agree about "last chances". Now please forgive me if I go off topic a bit while I explain that. I've seen and studied the cycles of tennis for quite a while. A lot depends on the dominating players' rates of decline. Federer has had a very gradual decline in terms of his place in the top rankings. His prime years (not peak) have lasted quite long. He even got back to #1 for a few months less than 2 years ago. By the way, I define prime years for the very top players (multiple major winners) as approximately the time between their first and last majors, in Federer's case between 2003 and 2012, so far. I define peak years as when they dominated the rest, or even if not dominating, got their bulk of majors, in Federer's case 2004-2007.
Now that Federer's chief competitors are getting up there, past 27, marriages and kids here or there, more injuries, absences, etc., we will see what's going on, and how much they decline. There is a possibility that players like Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic will decline at a faster rate, either physically, mentally, or both, relative to Federer and give Federer another window of opportunity to win an additional few majors before young stars rise, similar to what happened in the early part of the Open Era with Rosewall, Laver, etc. before Connors and Borg began to dominate, and to what happened in the early 2000's after Sampras, Becker, Kuerten, Rafter declined, leaving Agassi to get a few more, before Federer and Nadal rose to dominate. We do not have a situation like in the 80's and early 90's where the next generation's depth following dominant players was quite strong. The current crop of youngsters is quite weak, relatively speaking.
I can see at least one player of the "big four" taking advantage. I'm not sure who it could be, but Federer seems to fit the profile of longevity. Loves the game, has been relatively injury free, game is not too taxing on the body, and has been a dominant player, and still competitive at an older age. 2013 was a sharp drop off for him, but seeing how he has recovered in 2014, we might put that down to his intermittent back problems. The challenge for him as he goes on will be to continue keeping those problems at bay and ability to recover from taxing matches and tournaments, with smart scheduling.
Of the others, I would give the nod to Djokovic to take advantage. He's had the fewest physical problems recently, bar the wrist, or arm, or whatever it may be. But even though he has reached finals in slams, he seems to be having trouble winning them lately. It's also possible some changes might happen after marriage and child, so who knows?
I would be quite surprised to see Rafa's prime last more than 1 or 2 more years more, unless he takes another extended absence and rejuvenates himself, but, I don't feel that will happen again. I could be wrong, but I think he would be more likely to hang it up, than do that again.
Andy Murray hasn't won a title or beaten a top 10 player since Djokovic last Wimbledon with his success there and subsequent back surgery and recovery process. We'll see what he can do this Wimbledon and beyond, but I have a feeling that he will not last that long at the top. He's accomplished his biggest dream of winning Wimbledon, and combined with physical problems, I think it may be enough for him. Of course, I could be wrong about that and the rest, but that's how I see it.
Respectfully,
masterclass
