And Nadal comes through! He wins in straight sets, 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-3.
Congratulation to Mr. Nadal, his team, and his fans.
Condolences to Mr. Federer, his staff, and his supporters.
It was a very tight first set, but one had a sense that it was slightly easier for Rafa to hold his serve, and that the tiebreaker might go his way.
Federer attempted to play aggressively coming to the net when he could and had some success there, but I think backed off it too soon, and began not to use the best judgement on his approach shots. His aggressive game almost totally disappeared in the final two sets, only making his way to the net when Rafa drew him in with a short ball, and even then Federer's net play was weak, missing many easy shots. He made a couple of good drop shots, but those were too few and far between.
Rafa was successful at passing Federer a few times, and this inhibited Federer. It really shouldn't happen. He needed to improve his approaches and judgement and continue to come in. Instead he retreated and began playing the game of attrition, which is always going to be in Rafa's favor. Federer was only broken once in the second set, but that was all that was required, because Federer could make no headway on Rafa's service games. Rafa served smartly, mixing it up, and backed it up with his ground game. He made more errors in the first set, but settled down nicely in the second and third set and let Roger make all the errors, which he did frequently (I think around 50 UE's for the 3 sets). Federer simply played more poorly as the match went on and he was obviously discouraged that not much of his strategy was working.
The key to me early in the match was Rafa's backhand crosscourt. It was working very well, and was getting to the empty space Federer was leaving when running around his backhand. This forced Roger to have to run hard to his forehand side and forced errors off Federer's forehand. Then when Rafa's forehand finally kicked in during the second set, it was too much for Federer to handle. Rafa's serve turned out to not be much of a factor either way. He only needed to get it in the court for the most part on his first serve. Roger was aggressive on some of Rafa's second serves, but not enough. And Federer simply wasn't consistent enough today, playing more poorly than either against Tsonga or Murray. For some of that, one has to give credit to Nadal for making Federer go for more, and some of that is probably due to Federer having enough of an off night to drop his confidence level.
Federer's serve, both first and second, was very good in the first set, but Rafa was getting a good read by the end of the set and getting into Roger's service game a bit more each time. Roger's serve began to be a bit more inconsistent as the game wore on, not making as many first serves, and Rafa was returning better. But it was really Roger's ineffectiveness in his ground game, which was inconsistent, both on the backhand and forehand side, and his approach/volleying was not quite on tonight that caused his demise.
Rafa played quite consistently and better after he took the first set. The forehand improved and his passing shots were on target for the most part. I don't think the turning point was winning the 1st set tiebreaker. It was the break of serve in the second set that did Federer in, as up to that time, I think Federer still believed he could level the match. And the key point in that break was definitely the unbelievable passing shot Rafa practically from behind himself, off an excellent deep low approach to Rafa's forehand side. Nothing wrong with Roger's shot, Nadal's shot was simply unbelievable. I think Roger pretty much gave up on the aggressive game after that. After getting broken, it got much more difficult for him. It was disappointing that Federer essentially gave up on his aggressive volleying game so soon. One has to be very patient with this game, even if a few passing shots get by you, you must have the mindset to continue going forward and make sure the approach shots are more sound, which in Federer's case they were not on the whole, especially in the second and third sets.
Again well done to Rafa. Good luck to him against the new Swiss #1 - Spartan Stan Wawrinka in the final on Sunday. Rafa's 12-0 against Stan and has never dropped a set, so it looks like it could be easy pickings for Nadal, but Ironman Stan has great confidence coming into his first ever major final. We will see if that matters at all. I think if Nadal plays well, even a good Stan doesn't have much chance. I think he'll have to hope Rafa is off just a bit, so good luck to Stan as well.
Respectfully,
masterclass
