2014 Aussie Open SF: Fedal Volume 33

[fedfan]

I honestly couldn't care less about the h2h at this stage given how many were on clay as there's no shame losing to him on clay given practically everyone else does too. What annoys me is the poor matches he plays to bend over and give Nadal another slam. He should have more pride and try harder as he's clearly a proud man. There was a ton at stake today and he played well below par even by recent slam matches against Nadal. Not even winning a set was the icing on the out of date stale cake.

They've now played 33 matches. 15 (nearly half) have been on a hard court, and Rafa has won 9 -- nearly 2/3.

Also, since they have played 15 times on a hard court, and 3 times on grass, that means they've played 15 times on clay -- the same number of times on hards.

It's high time some Fed fans quit acting like 99% of their matches have been played on clay. Less than half, actually, and Rafa has a 9-6 lead on hard courts.

Sobering facts.

No argument here.

Tented it's painful to admit, but it is what it is.

 

[DarthFed]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

wut?

Darth, you're an outstanding poster, but this notion is ridiculous. Granted Fed is arguably most the talented player to yield a racket, but his current slam record speaks for itself regardless of what Nadal ends up with.

The rest is gravy and has been that way since #15 IMO.

Personally, I'm tired of worrying about being eclipsed but have learned to appreciate witnessing the two best that's played the game in the same era.

We are blessed.

We will agree to disagree. In the end Roger had a lot of chances vs. Rafa and others to really put the record out of reach for this generation. No one has ever been greater at putting himself in position time and time again. He had 2 big problems: Rafa and the poor play in tight moments regardless of his opponent. You get him to a 5th set or do anything to bust momentum and he did a poor job at fighting back. 17 slams will be easily topped by Rafa and MANY in the not so distant future (say 20-30 years), it's the way of today's game and sports in general.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

wut?

Darth, you're an outstanding poster, but this notion is ridiculous. Granted Fed is arguably most the talented player to yield a racket, but his current slam record speaks for itself regardless of what Nadal ends up with.

The rest is gravy and has been that way since #15 IMO.

Personally, I'm tired of worrying about being eclipsed but have learned to appreciate witnessing the two best that's played the game in the same era.

We are blessed.

We will agree to disagree. In the end Roger had a lot of chances vs. Rafa a;nd others to really put the record out of reach for this generation. No one has ever been greater at putting himself in position time and time again. He had 2 big problems: Rafa and the poor play in tight moments regardless of his opponent. You get him to a 5th set or do anything to bust momentum and he did a poor job at fighting back. 17 slams will be easily topped by Rafa and MANY in the not so distant future (say 20-30 years), it's the way of today's game and sports in general.

From Fed's pressor: This clearly shows that Rafa is apparently in Fed's head

“It's totally different playing Rafa over anybody else. Playing Murray or Rafa is day and night,” Federer said after falling for the ninth time in 11 major meetings to Nadal. “It's not because of the level necessarily, but it's just every point is played in a completely different fashion and I have to totally change my game.”

 

[Front242]

Naturally 'cos the majority on tour are right handed. Lefties don't give him trouble per se, it's simply down to Nadal's spin. Every tennis fan out there could tell you Nadal is in Fed's head. Nothing new there. It's the reason his game goes to pieces.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Naturally 'cos the majority on tour are right handed. Lefties don't give him trouble per se, it's simply down to Nadal's spin. Every tennis fan out there could tell you Nadal is in Fed's head. Nothing new there. It's the reason his game goes to pieces.

It's ONE of the reasons. His game has been "going to pieces" against Nadal before Nadal became in his head. Yeah, there's a mental factor. For instance, had Roger dropped the first set to Murray, he probably still would have believed he can -- or even will -- win. When he dropped the first set to Nadal, it was over. But there's a lot more to that match-up than Nadal being in his head, and it's lazy to strictly look at it that way.

 

[Front242]

Well, the mental aspect of it definitely rears its ugly head when you see Roger serving poorly most of the match save for a few clutch break points that he saved, routinely netting easy forehands (I'm not talking on the run as they're harder at his age - just straightforward open court easy put aways finding the middle of the net or going miles wide) and of course the large amount of pretty straightforward volleys that weren't even close to going over the net. He turns into a challenger circuit rookie and it's embarrassing to watch. Sets up some points brilliantly and then nets the forehand or volley or hits both miles wide. That's mental, coupled with poor execution. Nothing about having to go for more on volleys that causes him to miss, just terrible execution.

 

[huntingyou]

Naturally 'cos the majority on tour are right handed. Lefties don't give him trouble per se, it's simply down to Nadal's spin. Every tennis fan out there could tell you Nadal is in Fed's head. Nothing new there. It's the reason his game goes to pieces.

Spin?

Does spin allows Rafa to track Roger's best shots and redirected them to the opposite side of the court?

When are we going to admit the truth here?

 

[Front242]

There were many, many shots, both volleys and forehands yesterday where Rafa was nowhere close to running them down and they were simply poorly executed. When are we going to watch the match and see the missed easy shots? We just see things differently.

 

[huntingyou]

Yes, Roger it's just a nice lad that gift Rafa make-able shots. I'm going to cry here, so much generosity when everything it's on the line. Mother Federer from Switzerland!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well, the mental aspect of it definitely rears its ugly head when you see Roger serving poorly most of the match save for a few clutch break points that he saved, routinely netting easy forehands (I'm not talking on the run as they're harder at his age - just straightforward open court easy put aways finding the middle of the net or going miles wide) and of course the large amount of pretty straightforward volleys that weren't even close to going over the net.

These things were happening in their earlier meetings too, I assure you. Obviously, perhaps to a smaller extent since Federer was younger and a flat out better player then, but missing volleys and makeable forehands has been a feature in Fedal matches since day 1.

 

[Front242]

Well, the mental aspect of it definitely rears its ugly head when you see Roger serving poorly most of the match save for a few clutch break points that he saved, routinely netting easy forehands (I'm not talking on the run as they're harder at his age - just straightforward open court easy put aways finding the middle of the net or going miles wide) and of course the large amount of pretty straightforward volleys that weren't even close to going over the net.

These things were happening in their earlier meetings too, I assure you. Obviously, perhaps to a smaller extent since Federer was younger and a flat out better player then, but missing volleys and makeable forehands has been a feature in Fedal matches since day 1.

I realize that. Just look at Monte Carlo 2008 final, RG 2011 set 1. The list is endless. But it's way worse these days. At least he had the pride and execution to actually win sets then.

 

[fedfan]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

wut?

Darth, you're an outstanding poster, but this notion is ridiculous. Granted Fed is arguably most the talented player to yield a racket, but his current slam record speaks for itself regardless of what Nadal ends up with.

The rest is gravy and has been that way since #15 IMO.

Personally, I'm tired of worrying about being eclipsed but have learned to appreciate witnessing the two best that's played the game in the same era.

We are blessed.

We will agree to disagree. In the end Roger had a lot of chances vs. Rafa and others to really put the record out of reach for this generation. No one has ever been greater at putting himself in position time and time again. He had 2 big problems: Rafa and the poor play in tight moments regardless of his opponent. You get him to a 5th set or do anything to bust momentum and he did a poor job at fighting back. 17 slams will be easily topped by Rafa and MANY in the not so distant future (say 20-30 years), it's the way of today's game and sports in general.

I don't have Fed's 5th set records in front of me, but IMO he runs out of gas and it's exposed against the great players. Although Delpo never was or will be considered elite/great he was the semis and finals of the '09 USO. I had a bad feeling if he got Rog into a 5th, Fed wouldn't have much left in the tank. I was actually in attendance at that one and you could just sense it as he went quietly in the last stanza. Same with Nadal at the 09 AO, even though Rafa was pushed to the brink on one day's rest in the semis. Many say Fed choked, lets be objective here and just admit Rafa is and has been in much shape than Fed and it showed. Granted Fed beat Rafa in Miami in five, but Rafa was a mere child, vastly inexperienced and Fed was at his physical peak to boot.

Obviously the match-up issues are a huge factor, but it's not about fighting back, it's about being out-conditioned by the best conditioned player to likely ever play despite Fed's well documented rigorous training in Dubai.

 

[Front242]

Definitely conditioning makes a huge difference for 5 set matches alright and Nadal is supremely fit, though he used to be even fitter.

 

[Kieran]

I watched this match on Friday, and leaving aside Nadal, I thought Roger began more tensely than I'd expected. I thought he'd come out charging and get away to a flying start, with Rafa on the back foot. He also looked gassed in the second set. I put all this down to the effects of aging: it gets harder to recover from 25 shot rallies, obviously, as you get older. It'll happen to Nadal, too.

Tennis matches are about imposing your strengths on the opponent and playing them on your terms. Roger has very rarely been able to do this to Rafa, and not at a slam for almost 7 years now. It's hard. He plays all the aesthetic stuff, but pretty soon Rafa has had enough of that and is passing him at will. Then he forces Roger into the backhand corner and psychologically tortures him. They play all their big matches on Rafa's terms, and I must admit that this is something that through his whole career Roger hasn't solved, despite how often he says he's got a new plan (which always looks a lot like the old plan, in fairness)...

 

[atttomole]

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

wut?

Darth, you're an outstanding poster, but this notion is ridiculous. Granted Fed is arguably most the talented player to yield a racket, but his current slam record speaks for itself regardless of what Nadal ends up with.

The rest is gravy and has been that way since #15 IMO.

Personally, I'm tired of worrying about being eclipsed but have learned to appreciate witnessing the two best that's played the game in the same era.

We are blessed.

We will agree to disagree. In the end Roger had a lot of chances vs. Rafa and others to really put the record out of reach for this generation. No one has ever been greater at putting himself in position time and time again. He had 2 big problems: Rafa and the poor play in tight moments regardless of his opponent. You get him to a 5th set or do anything to bust momentum and he did a poor job at fighting back. 17 slams will be easily topped by Rafa and MANY in the not so distant future (say 20-30 years), it's the way of today's game and sports in general.

I don't have Fed's 5th set records in front of me, but IMO he runs out of gas and it's exposed against the great players. Although Delpo never was or will be considered elite/great he was the semis and finals of the '09 USO. I had a bad feeling if he got Rog into a 5th, Fed wouldn't have much left in the tank. I was actually in attendance at that one and you could just sense it as he went quietly in the last stanza. Same with Nadal at the 09 AO, even though Rafa was pushed to the brink on one day's rest in the semis. Many say Fed choked, lets be objective here and just admit Rafa is and has been in much shape than Fed and it showed. Granted Fed beat Rafa in Miami in five, but Rafa was a mere child, vastly inexperienced and Fed was at his physical peak to boot.

Obviously the match-up issues are a huge factor, but it's not about fighting back, it's about being out-conditioned by the best conditioned player to likely ever play despite Fed's well documented rigorous training in Dubai.

I agree with this post. I always felt that Federer is drained in long matches, and by the 5th set he is no longer able to play the way he normally does. Often people look at the mental side, ignoring the physical side. Djokovic is another example, who after solving his allergy issues can now hang in against the fittest players on tour. It is also true that there have been matches where Federer seemed to collapse inexplicably, like in the 5 set loss to Tsonga in 2011 at Wimbledon.

 

[Front242]

That collapse to Tsonga at Wimbledon was down to 2 things imo. Well 3 actually. Firstly, Roger played a great 2 opening sets but seemed to take the foot off the gas and went a bit passive as he all too often does when ahead. That allowed Tsonga back into the match in set 3.

Secondly, Fed's return has been a load of crap on grass especially for years now and as far as I recall he started every one of those remaining 3 sets losing his opening service game. Not good. And the final reason for that loss was Tsonga's serving was absolutely incredible that day from set 3 until the end so those early breaks in each of the final 3 sets was enough to get the win. Federer really had no answer for Tsonga's service games and to stand a chance at this stage of his career he really has to improve his return of serve. Agassi's ROS was still monstrous at Fed's age so it's still possible to get some of the old magic back if he tries hard enough.