Wimbledon Preview Talk

Kieran

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GameSetAndMath said:
Kieran said:
GameSetAndMath said:
No, there is no love here. May be you misunderstood my favorite comment. He is certainly not my favorite. I would rather have him lose. I meant he is the favorite to win the tourney.

There is some love because he would be easier for Fed to beat than Novak, in the finals.

Oh I know what you meant, and Darth also installed Andy as his favourite to win it, and while I can see some logic in it, I can't see much. I certainly don't know what you're basing it on...

The logic is fairly simple. Murray had his back op in fall 2013, he needed time to recover and produce results again. Until the end of USO of last year, he sucked. But, he started producing results after USO of last year since his month long camp in China in the fall. He had been quite consistent in Slams over the last three years. He reached QF or better of every slam he played for the last 3 years. After getting married, he seems more content and have added titles on Clay as well. His main problem is fading away when playing with Novak. Even in that area he has shown improvement as evidenced by his 5 set affair at RG. Finally, even though Novak has 2 Wimby titles and Andy has only one, I think Andy is a better grass court player than Novak (based on what I have seen from both of them over the years). Finally, there will not be too much pressure on Andy as Perry's Ghost has already been slain.

Rafa has not done well for about 4/5 years there now. Fed has not won a GS for almost 3 years now. Raonic would be too angry or not at all angry to win. I actually think Cilic would have a good showing here. Stan's lack of athleticism/movement would be exposed in the lawns. Grigor is not ready for big stage yet. So, who do we have left.

ANDY MURRAY.

I would agree with almost all of that but my conclusion from the same information is that Novak is the clear favourite...
 

GameSetAndMath

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Kieran said:
GameSetAndMath said:
Kieran said:
Oh I know what you meant, and Darth also installed Andy as his favourite to win it, and while I can see some logic in it, I can't see much. I certainly don't know what you're basing it on...

The logic is fairly simple. Murray had his back op in fall 2013, he needed time to recover and produce results again. Until the end of USO of last year, he sucked. But, he started producing results after USO of last year since his month long camp in China in the fall. He had been quite consistent in Slams over the last three years. He reached QF or better of every slam he played for the last 3 years. After getting married, he seems more content and have added titles on Clay as well. His main problem is fading away when playing with Novak. Even in that area he has shown improvement as evidenced by his 5 set affair at RG. Finally, even though Novak has 2 Wimby titles and Andy has only one, I think Andy is a better grass court player than Novak (based on what I have seen from both of them over the years). Finally, there will not be too much pressure on Andy as Perry's Ghost has already been slain.

Rafa has not done well for about 4/5 years there now. Fed has not won a GS for almost 3 years now. Raonic would be too angry or not at all angry to win. I actually think Cilic would have a good showing here. Stan's lack of athleticism/movement would be exposed in the lawns. Grigor is not ready for big stage yet. So, who do we have left.

ANDY MURRAY.

I would agree with almost all of that but my conclusion from the same information is that Novak is the clear favourite...

I forgot to mention the main reason why Novak is not the favorite. Now that the Coupe des Mousquetaires was so near and yet so far, that is bound to affect him psychologically. Some might say, last year also he lost, but regrouped himself and won the Wimby. But, there is a significance difference between last year and this year and I don't think I need to state the obvious.

However, I expect Novak to come back and win USO this year.
 

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Novak was never as good on grass as Murray imo despite having 2 titles at Wimbledon to 1 for Murray. Some may not see the logic there but Murray will win more cheap points on grass than Novak and eventhough their h2h is getting mighty ugly now (much like Federer v Roddick) if they meet at Wimbledon and I was betting, my money would be on Murray to finally win one against him. His game is just more naturally suited to grass than Novak's. And again, I'm no fan of Murray, simply stating I think he's in with the best shot at Wimbledon this year.
 

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For my money Djokovic is still quite ahead of the others. He is the only guy you would be surprised if he lost before the semis. Than comes Murray and Federer, and then the rest, with the big random question mark over Wawrinka.
 

Front242

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Granted Novak was a bit drained mentally and physically but mostly mentally against Murray when they played there and he was also up in every set but managed to lose his lead each time but I still think Murray would win there if they played again. I'd give Novak the edge anywhere else though till proven otherwise and Murray hasn't proven he can beat him now for 8 straight matches.
 

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Front242 said:
Granted Novak was a bit drained mentally and physically but mostly mentally against Murray when they played there and he was also up in every set but managed to lose his lead each time but I still think Murray would win there if they played again. I'd give Novak the edge anywhere else though till proven otherwise and Murray hasn't proven he can beat him now for 8 straight matches.

Where are people getting the idea that Novak was drained against Murray? What's that based upon? This is a bloke who played a match against Murray that lasted 5 hours or whatever in oz, then came back and played 6 hours against Rafa.

I can't believe folks are peddling the old okey-doke on this one...

EDIT: the colloquial term for what happened in the 2013 Wimbledon final against Murray is, "Nole dropped a calf..."
 

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Kieran said:
Front242 said:
Granted Novak was a bit drained mentally and physically but mostly mentally against Murray when they played there and he was also up in every set but managed to lose his lead each time but I still think Murray would win there if they played again. I'd give Novak the edge anywhere else though till proven otherwise and Murray hasn't proven he can beat him now for 8 straight matches.

Where are people getting the idea that Novak was drained against Murray? What's that based upon? This is a bloke who played a match against Murray that lasted 5 hours or whatever in oz, then came back and played 6 hours against Rafa.

I can't believe folks are peddling the old okey-doke on this one...

EDIT: the colloquial term for what happened in the 2013 Wimbledon final against Murray is, "Nole dropped a calf..."

That's why I said mentally mostly.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Kieran said:
EDIT: the colloquial term for what happened in the 2013 Wimbledon final against Murray is, "Nole dropped a calf..."

Novak should keep away from the Buddhist temples that teach compassion during Wimbledon. :lolz:
 

Kieran

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Front242 said:
Kieran said:
Front242 said:
Granted Novak was a bit drained mentally and physically but mostly mentally against Murray when they played there and he was also up in every set but managed to lose his lead each time but I still think Murray would win there if they played again. I'd give Novak the edge anywhere else though till proven otherwise and Murray hasn't proven he can beat him now for 8 straight matches.

Where are people getting the idea that Novak was drained against Murray? What's that based upon? This is a bloke who played a match against Murray that lasted 5 hours or whatever in oz, then came back and played 6 hours against Rafa.

I can't believe folks are peddling the old okey-doke on this one...

EDIT: the colloquial term for what happened in the 2013 Wimbledon final against Murray is, "Nole dropped a calf..."

That's why I said mentally mostly.

I think his problem was mental alright, but not fatigue.

But I agree with you, his recent wins over Murray give him the edge if they meet at Wimbledon. Muzza will get the swell-tide of warm support, and that'll help him, but his habit of fading...I keep going back to it but it's almost chronic at this stage. At the same time, Novak knows this and his game expands. Until proven otherwise - as you put it - I'd give the edge to Novak...
 

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Well I give Novak the edge everywhere but Wimbledon. I think the overwhelming crowd support which actually gets on Novak's nerves, coupled with him being a bit down after RG naturally and Murray generally being better on grass would lean towards a Murray victory at Wimbledon but I'd pick Novak in a heartbeat anywhere else.
 

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Kieran said:
Front242 said:
Kieran said:
Where are people getting the idea that Novak was drained against Murray? What's that based upon? This is a bloke who played a match against Murray that lasted 5 hours or whatever in oz, then came back and played 6 hours against Rafa.

I can't believe folks are peddling the old okey-doke on this one...

EDIT: the colloquial term for what happened in the 2013 Wimbledon final against Murray is, "Nole dropped a calf..."

That's why I said mentally mostly.

I think his problem was mental alright, but not fatigue.

But I agree with you, his recent wins over Murray give him the edge if they meet at Wimbledon. Muzza will get the swell-tide of warm support, and that'll help him, but his habit of fading...I keep going back to it but it's almost chronic at this stage. At the same time, Novak knows this and his game expands. Until proven otherwise - as you put it - I'd give the edge to Novak...

What are you agreeing with? Front said (as well as me and DF) that we think Murray will win if they meet at WImby this year. See Fron'ts post at 5:08 p.m.
 

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GameSetAndMath said:
Kieran said:
Front242 said:
That's why I said mentally mostly.

I think his problem was mental alright, but not fatigue.

But I agree with you, his recent wins over Murray give him the edge if they meet at Wimbledon. Muzza will get the swell-tide of warm support, and that'll help him, but his habit of fading...I keep going back to it but it's almost chronic at this stage. At the same time, Novak knows this and his game expands. Until proven otherwise - as you put it - I'd give the edge to Novak...

What are you agreeing with? Front said (as well as me and DF) that we think Murray will win if they meet at WImby this year. See Fron'ts post at 5:08 p.m.

You're right! I read it wrong, because I saw Front say "until proven otherwise"...then I saw "and Murray hasn't proven he can beat him now for 8 straight matches." All of which I took to be in Nole's favour, but it wasn't. Front! Where the hell are ya! :mad: :snicker

Obviously then, I disagree! Thanks for the correction... :)
 

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Carol35 said:
nehmeth said:
DarthFed said:
One of Roger's last legit chances, no question about that. I think he will be fine on grass, hoping he doesn't have to go through both Murray and Djokovic. As it stands now I'd have Murray as the slight favorite for this title with Nole and Fed just behind. The bookies will undoubtedly have Nole well ahead of the rest but I don't see it that way.

I actually agree with you. Optimal for Novak would be Roger to take out Murray in a tough semi.

And at his level presently, unless the gods bestow an elixir from heaven, Rafa does not make it past the first week again.

Dimitrov is having a poor year... I'd like to see how he does in the lead up to Wimbledon. Maybe he can find his game on the greens.

Rafa doesn't need any elixir to pass the first week, he just need to recovery his strong mind, game and and focus and I hope he will, it's about time, the good tennis followers need him

Let's consider:

- On his best surface, he was unable to win a Masters level tournament and was comprehensively thumped in three sets on his home court at Roland Garros.

- His forehand has not been a real weapon for him, except in spurts. His serve is nowhere like it was in 2013. He'll need both on grass.

- Other players are successfully employing Novak's strategy against him.

Like Dimitrov, he will need to find some success leading up to Wimbledon or he could be an early exit again.
 

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nehmeth said:
Let's consider:

- On his best surface, he was unable to win a Masters level tournament and was comprehensively thumped in three sets on his home court at Roland Garros.

- His forehand has not been a real weapon for him, except in spurts. His serve is nowhere like it was in 2013. He'll need both on grass.

- Other players are successfully employing Novak's strategy against him.

Like Dimitrov, he will need to find some success leading up to Wimbledon or he could be an early exit again.

If you're gonna hammer Rafa, get it right, brother: he was unable to win a 500 point tourney on clay as well... :snicker
 

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Front242 said:
Well I give Novak the edge everywhere but Wimbledon. I think the overwhelming crowd support which actually gets on Novak's nerves, coupled with him being a bit down after RG naturally and Murray generally being better on grass would lean towards a Murray victory at Wimbledon but I'd pick Novak in a heartbeat anywhere else.

Andy got the one Wimby under his belt. He played Novak way tougher at RG than I expected. He should be feeling pretty comfortable out there on his "home" court (even if he did vote "yes" for an independent Scotland :snicker)

One might think the pressure's off Nole now, but it remains to be seen how he'll regroup after the RG final. Hopefully well.
 

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Front242 said:
Well I give Novak the edge everywhere but Wimbledon. I think the overwhelming crowd support which actually gets on Novak's nerves, coupled with him being a bit down after RG naturally and Murray generally being better on grass would lean towards a Murray victory at Wimbledon but I'd pick Novak in a heartbeat anywhere else.

I also think that Murray is, on paper, better than Djokovic on grass. But Novak will go in as the favorite, and should. He's proven he can come back from RG losses and win. Is he playing a tune-up? He sometimes doesn't.
 

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Moxie629 said:
Front242 said:
Well I give Novak the edge everywhere but Wimbledon. I think the overwhelming crowd support which actually gets on Novak's nerves, coupled with him being a bit down after RG naturally and Murray generally being better on grass would lean towards a Murray victory at Wimbledon but I'd pick Novak in a heartbeat anywhere else.

I also think that Murray is, on paper, better than Djokovic on grass. But Novak will go in as the favorite, and should. He's proven he can come back from RG losses and win. Is he playing a tune-up? He sometimes doesn't.

I think they don't play tennis on paper, only on clay, grass or hard. ;)

Novak has not signed up for any warm-up tourney. He plays in some kind of exhibition cum warm-p tourney in the week before Wimby.
 

Kieran

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I thought Novak was going to ask for a wild card to Queens? It's a long break between RG and Wimbo this year...
 

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Kieran said:
I thought Novak was going to ask for a wild card to Queens? It's a long break between RG and Wimbo this year...

He has not signed up as a regular entry guy for any warm-ups. I don't know whether he plans to ask. It would make sense to ask though. Maybe Nole fans can confirm this.
 

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I think picking Murray as favorite here would make less sense than having Rafa favorite at the French. He's not the defending champ and has lost 8 consecutive times to Djokovic (the most of any "Big 4" match up). The only thing going for him is that he had his best clay court season ever. But the thing is, Djokovic (arguably) did too. And while it's true that his loss in Paris could be mentally damaging, he handles that type of loss much better than he did in the past.