Will Novak pass Rafa?

[Bonaca]

He was injured this very tournament... what's saying he'll pick up another?

What are we talking about?

Everyone starting healthy and motivated into the tournament, who else than Novak is the highest favorite?
Who can realistically challenge him on grass? On HC there are a few but on grass?
My point is, an upset on grass is the most unlikely.
That is what i talk about. And you?

 

[Sabratha]

What are we talking about?

Everyone starting healthy and motivated into the tournament, who else than Novak is the highest favorite?
Who can realistically challenge him on grass? On HC there are a few but on grass?
My point is, an upset on grass is the most unlikely.
That is what i talk about. And you?

We are discussing the possibility Novak could get injured again during this season (which is probable given his form this Australian Open which has been patchy at best for his standards).

On grass a big hitter/big server in the early rounds could pose problems as we saw with Querrey and even Anderson in 2015. He's also not as young as he was in those days making it easier for him to get upset.

 

[Bonaca]

We are discussing the possibility Novak could get injured again during this season (which is probable given his form this Australian Open which has been patchy at best for his standards).

On grass a big hitter/big server in the early rounds could pose problems as we saw with Querrey and even Anderson in 2015. He's also not as young as he was in those days making it easier for him to get upset.

Ah ok , but he also could break his leg today, we should take that too into account.
Everything can happen every time , my primarily thoughts were about what we currently know about high level grasscourt tennis, and beside Novak and Roger there is nothing. I doubt Roger can put himself again in a situation where he holds 2 MP in a slam F against anybody.
By the way I was talking about his best chances to catch more slam titles, and where it could happen most likely, not injuries.
Whatsoever, we will see.
Let’s enjoy first the F on Sunday. Step by step .


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[Sabratha]

Ah ok , but he also could break his leg today, we should take that too into account.
Everything can happen every time , my primarily thoughts were about what we currently know about high level grasscourt tennis, and beside Novak and Roger there is nothing. I doubt Roger can put himself again in a situation where he holds 2 MP in a slam F against anybody.
By the way I was talking about his best chances to catch more slam titles, and where it could happen most likely, not injuries.
Whatsoever, we will see.
Let’s enjoy first the F on Sunday. Step by step .


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It's not wise to write off any player, let alone Roger, but his time in the limelight is probably drawing to a close. I think that about all the Big 3, however.

 

[Bonaca]

It's not wise to write off any player, let alone Roger, but his time in the limelight is probably drawing to a close. I think that about all the Big 3, however.

Of course wonders happen, but they just confirm the rule.
Following your logic, why should a 34y old Nadal and a 33y old Novak be in the same career-near-end phase as 39y old Roger?

 

[Sabratha]

Of course wonders happen, but they just confirm the rule.
Following your logic, why should a 34y old Nadal and a 33y old Novak be in the same career-near-end phase as 39y old Roger?

The same reason Murray faded after he turned 30? Not everyone shares the same longevity. Sampras was finished when he was younger than both Nadal and Djokovic are now and Agassi wasn't much older.

 

[Front242]

^ They both rely on their physicality more than Federer whose shot making skills are superior. I don't think Djokovic or Nadal are near the end just yet at all but they're definitely more reliant on their athleticism than Federer is.

 

[Bonaca]

The same reason Murray faded after he turned 30? Not everyone shares the same longevity. Sampras was finished when he was younger than both Nadal and Djokovic are now and Agassi wasn't much older.

Yeah but you don’t really want to compare these great players with Nadal and Djokovic? They already showed and still show they are above them all looking at physical abilities and level of play after they turned 30, 31, 32, 33, ......
There is no second Nadal or Djokovic. Of course also no second maestro.


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[Jelenafan]

^ They both rely on their physicality more than Federer whose shot making skills are superior. I don't think Djokovic or Nadal are near the end just yet at all but they're definitely more reliant on their athleticism than Federer is.

This is always such a tricky issue, because everyone, including Federer relies on their athleticism. Other players have great hands, and are great shotmakers in a vacuum, but Federer had the speed and agility and the ENDURANCE to have had something like 16 years of consecutive play without missing a single Major. That is an aspect of athleticism, so I just don't buy it's all this binary world of skills versus athleticism, with all the great champs it has always been a combination of both. There are different facets to athleticism just like there are facets to tennis skills. Novak's eye to hand reflex on return of serves, how is that NOT a tennis skill of the highest level? Or Nadal being able to tweak his serve even at this late date in his career to make it more of a weapon, again minimizing their skills as if all some vague "athleticism" compared to Federer's "skills" is an old dated trope.

 

[Front242]

^ Never said a single thing about tennis skills relating to serve or return of serve, just shotmaking and I don't disagree at all, Novak's ROS is unreal and Nadal's serve has definitely improved. But, it's a fact that Federer is better at first strike tennis than both Nadal and Djokovic and there's no way a 39 year old could be so good without top notch shot making skills. His game is definitely centered more on shot making than theirs. Of course Federer is highly athletic too, goes without saying, but he's nowhere near as content to rally till the cows come home (and rightly so) as they are.

 

[Sabratha]

Yeah but you don’t really want to compare these great players with Nadal and Djokovic? They already showed and still show they are above them all looking at physical abilities and level of play after they turned 30, 31, 32, 33, ......
There is no second Nadal or Djokovic. Of course also no second maestro.


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Agassi won most of his majors between the ages of 29 and 33.

 

[Fiero425]

Agassi won most of his majors between the ages of 29 and 33.

8 MAJORS used to be a lot in the Pro ranks! Without Agassi's "media coined" moniker of CGS winner, he would be little known but for footnotes IMO after what's taken place this last decade with Fedalovic! They have outclassed them all by way of time, improvements in fitness, technology w/ the rackets, & of course the homogenization of tennis courts! Borg's still the GOLD standard for that era B4 these greats took over the scene!

 

[Sabratha]

8 MAJORS used to be a lot in the Pro ranks! Without Agassi's "media coined" moniker of CGS winner, he would be little known but for footnotes IMO after what's taken place this last decade with Fedalovic! They have outclassed them all by way of time, improvements in fitness, technology w/ the rackets, & of course the homogenization of tennis courts! Borg's still the GOLD standard for that era B4 these greats took over the scene!

I think what Agassi achieved at that age is more remarkable when you factor in the fact he was devoid of all the advantages Nadal, Djokovic and even Federer were awarded.

 

[Moxie]

Of course wonders happen, but they just confirm the rule.
Following your logic, why should a 34y old Nadal and a 33y old Novak be in the same career-near-end phase as 39y old Roger?

I think what you're also discounting is a certain rise in a (small) group of talented younger players who have more belief in beating The Big 3/Old Guard than certainly the Lost Gen had. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are certainly more talented than a whole generation+ of players, and that could have a hand in why their careers and Slam-winning ways have extended farther into their 30s than is usual. It is yet to be seen how much longer this dominance lasts. But there are a few factors that I see happening, even now: 1) That as opportunities dwindle, even very elite players get tight in big moments; 2) As the younger players see this, they have less fear and feel more opportunity and confidence that they can pull off the upset; 3) Injuries do creep in more as the player ages, which is unpredictable; and 4) Which I have said before: even if a Next Gen player doesn't win the tournament, they have gone some way into spoiling the tournament for the Big 3. Tsitsipas alone spoiled Roger's defense of the AO a couple of years ago, and Rafa's bid this year, and he has yet to make a Major final. And Novak has the worst record of the 3 against Next Gen. The road to winning a Major for The Big 3 does narrow, and, as I see it, in several ways.

 

[nehmeth]

Medvedev just called them (Djokovic, Fed, Nadal) the Cyborgs of tennis. This generation will continue to find chinks in the armor and eventually begin winning on the biggest stages of the game. Maybe we’ll see it this year. For now the big three still occupy acreage in the youngsters’ minds.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/medvedev-reaction-australian-open-2021-final

 

[Fiero425]

Medvedev just called them (Djokovic, Fed, Nadal) the Cyborgs of tennis. This generation will continue to find chinks in the armor and eventually begin winning on the biggest stages of the game. Maybe we’ll see it this year. For now the big three still occupy acreage in the youngsters’ minds.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/medvedev-reaction-australian-open-2021-final

What's it they say about competitors? If you think they're better, how can you defeat them? We all know the BIG 3 are in the collective heads of the tour! Daniil's not telling us anything new!

 

[Jelenafan]

Should Tom Brady be discounted because he’s a 43 year old winning QB ?

Or Lebron still dominating basketball games at age 36?

Are they peak, past peak or past prime, etc, etc.???

What matters is that they are still relevant, as are the Big 3 until, well, they are not. Other thanDominic Theim, they are 10+ years older than the other contenders. In any sport you have a whole gamut of ages playing at the same time, so I just don’t get the “ weighted average” of prime versus post prime. If you’re out there competing, their fans shouldn’t be bitching that they are at a disadvantage, they CHOOSE to continue competing. If it’s so unfair, retire already!

Federer I grant you looks more near the end at 39 ,especially with his long rehab this year is crucial for him, but both Novak and Nadal could hit the wall and stop winning Majors at any time. So enjoy them while we can.

 

[El Dude]

I think this year's Roland Garros will go a long way to answering this question.

If Rafa wins he'll be at 21, Novak at 18. Hard to imagine Novak winning 4 more than him.

If Novak wins he's at 19, Rafa at 20. I think Novak will pass him.

If neither wins, it will still be debatable. Novak winning 3 more will be tough, and neither winning could imply that both are slipping.

 

[Moxie]

I think this year's Roland Garros will go a long way to answering this question.

If Rafa wins he'll be at 21, Novak at 18. Hard to imagine Novak winning 4 more than him.

If Novak wins he's at 19, Rafa at 20. I think Novak will pass him.

If neither wins, it will still be debatable. Novak winning 3 more will be tough, and neither winning could imply that both are slipping.

Overall reasonable assessment. As GSM posted in his Early RG thread, Rafa is a big favorite to win RG again this year. IF they play it in the scheduled slot, that would only be 7 months since the last one, and given how Nadal won it, with all of the supposed obstacles, he'd have to have fallen a lot since last October. Say he does win it. There's a chance he has even one more in him before he retires. So, yeah, 4 or 5 more Majors would be a lot for Novak to pull off. If Novak wins RG, then yes, much more likely he passes Rafa. If neither wins RG, one has to think it would be Thiem to take it. I'm having a hard time picturing the field catching up from where they were at the AO...i.e., chances to spoil, but, for the most part, not winning. Look at what had to fall into place for Dominic to win the USO. If the field keeps failing to catch real fire, this gives the Big 3 longevity. And yes, depending on how Roger comes back, he has a shot at another Wimbledon. As I say, the youngsters don't seem ready to win the biggest titles, but they've begun to spoil. Say they knock out Novak and Rafa there...it could happen. That would make things interesting.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Bump!