Will Novak pass Rafa?

[don_fabio]

Nadal definitely had his tight moments, which is natural at his age, but he was able to brush it off those tight moments soon after…

That's the thing. Everyone gets tight at some point of the match, but Rafa overcomes that by not letting it get to him and that's the beauty of it.

 

[Kieran]

That's the thing. Everyone gets tight at some point of the match, but Rafa overcomes that by not letting it get to him and that's the beauty of it.

Yeah, that’s true, and compare that with Rafa’s tiebreak jitters late-2020 and early 21, where he couldn’t win one in a big match, and yet now he’s locked in on tiebreaks, winning all the big ones bar the second set against Danii. He’s definitely handling the pressure better when he has to. He seems like a man on fire, playing with a mission, leaving it all out there, all the cliches. But it’s definitely a thing that’s changed for him, and it’s very welcome..

 

[the AntiPusher]

Will Novak pass Rafa?​

Does the bear shit in the woods?

I guess he defecates at the closest outhouse or waiting station.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak needs to keep away from Hollywood, Bollywood, Trolleywood etc. Then, he can do it.

Apparently you forgot to mention that he needs to stay away from counties where his visa requirements are predicated on his refusal to get the vaccine vaccination shot.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, that’s true, and compare that with Rafa’s tiebreak jitters late-2020 and early 21, where he couldn’t win one in a big match, and yet now he’s locked in on tiebreaks, winning all the big ones bar the second set against Danii. He’s definitely handling the pressure better when he has to. He seems like a man on fire, playing with a mission, leaving it all out there, all the cliches. But it’s definitely a thing that’s changed for him, and it’s very welcome..

I honestly think that it's worth believing Rafa when he says he's so amazed and pleased to be back, given the foot issue, that he does play with a bit more freedom and calm. In a way, he may feel like he's playing with house money. And I do believe him when he says that, while, as a competitive person, he'd love to have the most Majors at the end, it won't change his happiness not to, "not 1%." Contrast that with Novak, who has full-on said that he wants all the toys at the end of the day. I'll say again that it may have been the difference in their QF last week, though Rafa being the better at RG is not to be discounted. They both knew that the one who came out of that match still in the draw was likely to be either tied in the Majors race, or two up.

It also brings to mind how Roger declared, long ago, that the singles Olympic Gold was a personal goal. And in 2012, after successfully defending his AO, Novak declared his two remaining goals for the year were RG, and the OG. Well, it took him 5 tries to finally get RG, and he's still waiting for that Olympic Gold medal. Rafa never said anything, and he's got two. There's something to be said against putting the pressure on yourself, publicly.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I honestly think that it's worth believing Rafa when he says he's so amazed and pleased to be back, given the foot issue, that he does play with a bit more freedom and calm. In a way, he may feel like he's playing with house money. And I do believe him when he says that, while, as a competitive person, he'd love to have the most Majors at the end, it won't change his happiness not to, "not 1%." Contrast that with Novak, who has full-on said that he wants all the toys at the end of the day. I'll say again that it may have been the difference in their QF last week, though Rafa being the better at RG is not to be discounted. They both knew that the one who came out of that match still in the draw was likely to be either tied in the Majors race, or two up.

It also brings to mind how Roger declared, long ago, that the singles Olympic Gold was a personal goal. And in 2012, after successfully defending his AO, Novak declared his two remaining goals for the year were RG, and the OG. Well, it took him 5 tries to finally get RG, and he's still waiting for that Olympic Gold medal. Rafa never said anything, and he's got two. There's something to be said against putting the pressure on yourself, publicly.

I love this Moxie!

For the time in a while that I can truly enjoy the Grass/Summer hard court and Hardcourt season for early 2023. The reason I can say this is because like you say, Nadal feels like he is playing with house money, as long he is relatively healthy for the tournaments he participates in.

Just think of this way too: He won two slams in which his preparations were not ideal. Now, in the next three slams (Wimbledon, US Open, 2023 AO), he is in the ideal position because in the next three slams he is not the "favorite" to win those slams, therefore, he will not feel major pressure to win slams (ala Djokovic) as long he is healthy of course.

Like AP has said a lot times before: Rafa Nadal can finally play free and just unleash ferocious forehands and backhands!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I love this Moxie!

For the time in a while that I can truly enjoy the Grass/Summer hard court and Hardcourt season for early 2023. The reason I can say this is because like you say, Nadal feels like he is playing with house money, as long he is relatively healthy for the tournaments he participates in.

Just think of this way too: He won two slams in which his preparations were not ideal. Now, in the next three slams (Wimbledon, US Open, 2023 AO), he is in the ideal position because in the next three slams he is not the "favorite" to win those slams, therefore, he will not feel major pressure to win slams (ala Djokovic) as long he is healthy of course.

Like AP has said a lot times before: Rafa Nadal can finally play free and just unleash ferocious forehands and backhands!

I would not write off Rafa at the USO, to me he is more favored there than Wimbledon. of course depends on his foot situation

 

[rafanoy1992]

I would not write off Rafa at the USO, to me he is more favored there than Wimbledon. of course depends on his foot situation

I am not writing off Rafa in any slams. I am just saying he will play "free" knowing that the "pressure" is different this time around.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I am not writing off Rafa in any slams. I am just saying he will play "free" knowing that the "pressure" is different this time around.

I understood what you were saying, personally speaking Rafa has done better at the USO

 

[Moxie]

I understood what you were saying, personally speaking Rafa has done better at the USO

He absolutely has. It's a good place for him. If he wins this year, and one can hope, he ties Roger with 5 at the USO. I'm sure he's going to try to peak for the USO.

 

[Jelenafan]

I love this Moxie!

For the time in a while that I can truly enjoy the Grass/Summer hard court and Hardcourt season for early 2023. The reason I can say this is because like you say, Nadal feels like he is playing with house money, as long he is relatively healthy for the tournaments he participates in.

Just think of this way too: He won two slams in which his preparations were not ideal. Now, in the next three slams (Wimbledon, US Open, 2023 AO), he is in the ideal position because in the next three slams he is not the "favorite" to win those slams, therefore, he will not feel major pressure to win slams (ala Djokovic) as long he is healthy of course.

Like AP has said a lot times before: Rafa Nadal can finally play free and just unleash ferocious forehands and backhands!

Pressure is self imposed and if any player could solve being pressure free in important matches , especially Majors, hey, sell me the formula! Rafa isn't inmume to pressure, he's had bad batches in stages of his last titanic 4 and 5 set matches, but unique to him, he shrugs it off and battles on. These COVID years were surreal because nobody is going to say training/conditioning were ideal for anyone and yet here we have him impressively besting opponents 10 years and younger in 5 set matches in this year’s Majors.

I don't give a rat's ass who he plays.and how his draw plays out. It's his form and health that is paramount to me.

That is why I relish, win or lose, his playing Novak on HC or grass in the Majors. IMO One of the misleading perceptions that came out of the 2019 AO was that Novak would have a slam dunk easy time besting Nadal on HC AT A MAJOR. Everyone points out that he hasn't beaten Novak in HC since 2013, but the only Major on HC they played since then was that 2019 AO. Meanwhile he’s won 3 HC majors during that stretch. I do think that at his point in his career the Slams are a different animal with Rafa, he has recovery time and as others point out he peaks for them.

He absolutely has. It's a good place for him. If he wins this year, and one can hope, he ties Roger with 5 at the USO. I'm sure he's going to try to peak for the USO.

Now THAT is going to be self imposed pressure.

 

[Moxie]

Pressure is self imposed and if any player could solve being pressure free in important matches , especially Majors, hey, sell me the formula! Rafa isn't inmume to pressure, he's had bad batches in stages of his last titanic 4 and 5 set matches, but unique to him, he shrugs it off and battles on. These COVID years were surreal because nobody is going to say training/conditioning were ideal for anyone and yet here we have him impressively besting opponents 10 years and younger in 5 set matches in this year’s Majors.

I don't give a rat's ass who he plays.and how his draw plays out. It's his form and health that is paramount to me.

That is why I relish, win or lose, his playing Novak on HC or grass in the Majors. IMO One of the misleading perceptions that came out of the 2019 AO was that Novak would have a slam dunk easy time besting Nadal on HC AT A MAJOR. Everyone points out that he hasn't beaten Novak in HC since 2013, but the only Major on HC they played since then was that 2019 AO. Meanwhile he’s won 3 HC majors during that stretch. I do think that at his point in his career the Slams are a different animal with Rafa, he has recovery time and as others point out he peaks for them.

I like your attitude about Rafa v. Novak on the HCs!

Now THAT is going to be self imposed pressure.

No, that is only fan-imposed pressure.

 

[Kieran]

He absolutely has. It's a good place for him. If he wins this year, and one can hope, he ties Roger with 5 at the USO. I'm sure he's going to try to peak for the USO.

I think so too. He’ll play Wimbledon if possible of course, and he has a chance, but he’s won 4 of the last 8 US Opens he’s played. He’s a king there. And even more exciting than tying Roger, he’ll also join Pete and Jimmy Connors, they’ll all share the record, which would be neat. Jimmy of course gets a special mention, having won it across 3 surfaces, but if they still played it on clay, Jimmy would already be in the rear view mirror, with Rafa on double digits. Luckily, they only have one slam on clay today, so Rafa’s allowed others to keep up with him…

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Novak will keep Nadal from reaching Fed and Nadal will do the same to Novak unfortunately. I think he can catch Nadal but it will be really tough. He needs a couple of really good slams.

One flaw in your prediction is that you ignored the fact that Nadal is the GOAT. It's 22-20-20 and 11-7 & 10-4 today and most people who have knowledge about tennis (such as me) knew that Nadal was the GOAT a long time ago. Anyways this pointless thread should be closed at this point. Have a nice day everyone.

 

[shawnbm]

He absolutely has. It's a good place for him. If he wins this year, and one can hope, he ties Roger with 5 at the USO. I'm sure he's going to try to peak for the USO.

That is one glaring thing in Fed's career, as great as he has been on hard courts throughout his career--no more US Opens after winning five in a row! The loss to Nole in 2011 set Novak on his upward trajectory and I think messed up Roger for years to come (only SW19) in 2012 and then nothing for five years. Roger has been too naturally adept on hards for so long that is must irk him to have not won more in New York.

 

[shawnbm]

Turning to the original post for a moment, will Novak pass Rafa? Getting harder to confidently predict in light of various political and virus issues. Would Novak have been the favorite Down Under? Yes, without question I think. He likely will be next year unless he does not come through at least once this year in the majors. Is the favorite anyone but him in London this next fortnight? No, he likely is still it but it is clouded by lack of play and his tough loss to Rafa in Paris. If he wins in London or New York (and Nadal wins neither), then there is good chance he can slide ahead next year, but it is not as certain as some may have thought a couple years ago.

 

[Moxie]

That is one glaring thing in Fed's career, as great as he has been on hard courts throughout his career--no more US Opens after winning five in a row! The loss to Nole in 2011 set Novak on his upward trajectory and I think messed up Roger for years to come (only SW19) in 2012 and then nothing for five years. Roger has been too naturally adept on hards for so long that is must irk him to have not won more in New York.

You mean the loss in 2010 to Novak. Though there was the deja vu version of it in 2011, but by that time Novak was already 2.0.

Aside from that, I'm not sure what is so "glaring" about his not having won any subsequent USO's. Which one(s) would you take away from someone else and award to him?

Turning to the original post for a moment, will Novak pass Rafa? Getting harder to confidently predict in light of various political and virus issues. Would Novak have been the favorite Down Under? Yes, without question I think. He likely will be next year unless he does not come through at least once this year in the majors. Is the favorite anyone but him in London this next fortnight? No, he likely is still it but it is clouded by lack of play and his tough loss to Rafa in Paris. If he wins in London or New York (and Nadal wins neither), then there is good chance he can slide ahead next year, but it is not as certain as some may have thought a couple years ago.

You have to take on board what is the reality on the ground. Yes, Novak is the big favorite at Wimbledon. However, chances are not good that he'll be able to play the USO, due to lack of vaccination, and he may not be able to play the Oz open next year, due to being under a 3-year ban from Australia. So, even if, say, he wins this Wimbledon, he may not even plan another Major until RG next year.

 

[shawnbm]

^ well taken Moxie. You are right about 2010--that was the one with the forehand on match point. Devastating loss for the Swiss. I am not saying to take anything away from anyone, but he was so good for so long on hards it seemed odd he was never able to capture another one. He really was in the driver's seat against a favorite of mine (Delpo) but I was very happy for the Argentine. Even then i thought it was a mere blip for Federer in New York and he would likely win at least one more, but no. As for Novak, I did not realize he is out for three years Down Under. As for New York this year, I have to think the restrictions will be less by late summer and considerably less than last year unless a new strain pops up and ruins it for everyone.

 

[Moxie]

^ well taken Moxie. You are right about 2010--that was the one with the forehand on match point. Devastating loss for the Swiss. I am not saying to take anything away from anyone, but he was so good for so long on hards it seemed odd he was never able to capture another one. He really was in the driver's seat against a favorite of mine (Delpo) but I was very happy for the Argentine. Even then i thought it was a mere blip for Federer in New York and he would likely win at least one more, but no. As for Novak, I did not realize he is out for three years Down Under. As for New York this year, I have to think the restrictions will be less by late summer and considerably less than last year unless a new strain pops up and ruins it for everyone.

I know there is a lot of rancor over the loss to Delpotro in 2009 around here, and you do say that you were happy for him, and rightly so, especially in retrospect, given his unfortunately curtailed career. Sure, Roger served for the 2nd set, after having won the first, but Juan Martin got over his nerves with some great shots, and some loose errors from Roger, too, but I don't believe that Fed losing that day was all on his racquet. I understand that you feel that, in theory, Federer seemed like there was a least one more USO in him, it just doesn't play out in practice. Cilic to me was the anomaly in there, and "all Roger had to do" was get past Marin, but the Croat really took the match out of Roger's hands that day, with his serving. Oh, well.

When Novak got deported from Oz, they gave him a 3-year ban. It's hard to say if it will hold up for the full 3 years, but even with a new government, it's hard to think that anyone will want to look like they're capitulating to star-status as soon as 2023. Maybe our Aussie friends can tell us better. In terms of NY this year, I honestly don't see the vaccine mandate getting lifted that soon. They only instituted it in January. And they did lift the test requirement in favor of the vaccine. (I don't wholly agree with that, but I will say it's a reason that I think the vaccine mandate for non-resident aliens will stay in place, at least through the end of the year. That's my opinion.) We'll see what happens, in terms of both of those Majors for Novak, in terms of even playing them. But it does complicate his campaign to end with the most Majors. It was within his power to make that different, but he has chosen another path.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

You have to take on board what is the reality on the ground. Yes, Novak is the big favorite at Wimbledon. However, chances are not good that he'll be able to play the USO, due to lack of vaccination, and he may not be able to play the Oz open next year, due to being under a 3-year ban from Australia. So, even if, say, he wins this Wimbledon, he may not even plan another Major until RG next year.

This year's Wimbledon is literally a must-win for Djokovic. If he doesn't win it then the slam race is over. IMO he won't win as the pressure will be too much. I expect to see many broken rackets and psycho angry screams from him. It won't be pretty.