Will Novak pass Federer?

[10isfan]

Djoke's comment comes as a surprise. Champions that start thinking like this are likely to decline. If his personal problems were indeed marital, he is making it known to her that she and their son mean more than tennis. Judging from her weight loss in recent months, the rumor of infidelity may be true. She looks thin and unhappy.

 

[Front242]

^ Found this about Shallow Hal aka Novak and his infidelity. Jelena shouldn't get thin and unhappy. Watch this to see how he really likes them. :snicker

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lma8Dj-RRTw[/video]

 

[Busted]

The basic game of Novak is baseline play. It may not be just counterpunching. It may be aggressive baseline play. He may be able to turn defense into offense. But, it surely cannot be called a fundamentally attacking style. Such a style will be taking its toll over a period. It cannot lost forever.
That is the primary logic behind my vote, not to mention the sound analysis mentioned in the OP of "Will Rafa pass Fed?" thread.

Novak needs 5 sets to put Simon to bed, He needs 36 shots to win a point against Andy. This kind of stuff will not be sustainable in the long run.

:clap I think you're starting to see this now with Nole in Shanghai talking about needing to find joy in being on the court again and have some personal issues distract him on the court. I've said for a long time that Nole has the same long-term problem Nadal has - his grinding game will take a much harder toll on him physically and mentally than Federer's game has had on him. To reach the age of 35 without a major injury and 0 retirements from matches while amassing the 3rd highest number of career wins and the 3rd highest number of career matches (for all eras not just the open era)? That's a crazy statistic with the power tennis played these days. Now Nole's in Shanghai complaining about his elbow. At the US Open it was his shoulder. Makes you wonder if he's having a pre-2011 flashback and Andy Roddick's going to make another SARS joke.

Bottom line - Unless Nole changes his style and starts coming forward more or is more aggressive from the baseline going for outright winners, then I think Nole ties or passes Nadal and gets to 15 but won't tie or pass Federer.

 

[Busted]

Novak says that grand slam trophies and no. 1 ranking are no longer his priorities . I wonder what are his priorities; Bollywood? uzzled

:laydownlaughing I think whatever funk Nole was in at Wimbledon continues to dog him and nagging injuries aren't helping matters. But, saying that #1 and Slams are no longer his priority? I'm not buying that - or else he wouldn't have shown up in Shanghai to defend and taken an extra few weeks to heal his elbow.

 

[El Dude]

While I agree in theory that Novak's style of play is closer to Rafa's than Roger's, and thus would imply a shorter shelf life, when we look at their actual past history, Novak has been extremely healthy, more akin to Roger than Rafa's walking wounded path of debris. I also think that Novak's overall skill set will weather aging better than Rafa's.

What remains to be seen is whether Novak's last few months is an adjustment to a 30-something slow decline in which injuries become more and more relevant, or if it is merely a glitch in the matrix...or where between the two poles. I'd like to see how he finishes out the year and, even more so, how he looks in January at the Australian Open. It is a weird thing to say, but he really needs to win the WTF and/or the AO if he wants to re-establish himself as the top dog. Right now there's a growing perception that he's mortal, which may translate to results on the court.

 

[Busted]

While I agree in theory that Novak's style of play is closer to Rafa's than Roger's, and thus would imply a shorter shelf life, when we look at their actual past history, Novak has been extremely healthy, more akin to Roger than Rafa's walking wounded path of debris. I also think that Novak's overall skill set will weather aging better than Rafa's.

What remains to be seen is whether Novak's last few months is an adjustment to a 30-something slow decline in which injuries become more and more relevant, or if it is merely a glitch in the matrix...or where between the two poles. I'd like to see how he finishes out the year and, even more so, how he looks in January at the Australian Open. It is a weird thing to say, but he really needs to win the WTF and/or the AO if he wants to re-establish himself as the top dog. Right now there's a growing perception that he's mortal, which may translate to results on the court.

I don't disagree with you about Nole's skill set aging better than Nadal's, but the fact remains - he plays and has played an awful lot of 4-6 hour matches in Slams. And he was very fragile early in his career with injuries and illnesses. Please don't make me post the Andy Roddick "SARS" video. IIRC he had 11 retirements before he started the gluten-free diet - and this year retired in Dubai with an eye problem or something like that. So it's not like he doesn't have a history of retiring. I'm not saying he was a hypochondriac...but...

As far as the rest of the year? I think Nole would be smart to skip Paris and save himself for the Tour finals. How many years has it been since someone other than he or Roger won it? Davydenko in 2009? If he wins he ties Roger at 6 - although 1 was a walkover win because Roger had a back problem and couldn't play - but...it still counts. He may not get to 17 Slams - but you'd think he'd want to tie that Tour Finals record. Given Murray's ineptness in the Tour Finals to date...I'm gonna say Nole wins the Tour Finals even if he plays Paris.

 

[Front242]

^ Side effects of hyperbaric chambers include:

"Changes in vision, causing nearsightedness, or myopia"

It's no secret Novak is often seen squinting like he's high as a kite. Sure, he wears contacts but, going by these side effects, he could be damaging his eyesight with that CVAC crap.

http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/healthlibrary/conditions/physical_medicine_and_rehabilitation/complications_of_hyperbaric_oxygen_treatment_134,148/

http://bjo.bmj.com/content/68/2/113.full.pdf

 

[masterclass]

We have a thread titled "Will Rafa Pass Federer"? Since that question seems to be settled, the burning question now appears to be will Novak surpass Federer? Of course, before passing Federer, he must pass Rafa; but, let us not labor the obvious.

I posted my thoughts about this here . But, nehemeth pointed out that it may be a wrong thread for it. So, I created this thread. The floor is yours, ladies and gentlemen.

In retrospect, it looks like it would have been better to first labor "the obvious" before going for the ultimate.

I think it will be quite an achievement for Novak to pass Sampras/Nadal much less Federer.
Novak has played a lot. He appears to be wearying. It looks like Becker will soon be gone.

The Aussie Open is his best major surface by far. My best guess is if he is able to get over this funk he is in now, he can win 2 more there in the next 3 years. But he must win one more somewhere else.

If he doesn't get over this funk we may have seen his last major win. It may be difficult to believe, but it's not unknown for a player to suddenly stop winning major championships. The game moves on.

One feels that the younger players won't be stopped much longer and a big win or two by one or more of them will be enough to get them on a roll and cause the older guard to quickly fade away. When that happens, it could be very fast.

Remember that tour's bottom line needs to have exciting big rivalries to earn the revenue from spectators and sponsors. So those need to develop rapidly to replace the biggest ones of yesteryear.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Novak says that grand slam trophies and no. 1 ranking are no longer his priorities . I wonder what are his priorities; Bollywood? uzzled

People did not take him seriously when he made these remarks. At least now, people should believe him. Tiger won 14 majors before getting caught and 0 after that. Go figure.

 

[shawnbm]

Ivan the Terrible took Borg to 5 sets in the 1981 final, buddy. I think Borg was tired of competition and although dispatched young Mats easily before the 1982 FO, it's different under the heat of pressure and expectation - both things which I believe was seriously stressed over, and wished to avoid. But even still, I think he'd have been prohibitive favourite to win the FO in 1982, because at that stage it still had to be proven he could be beaten there, again.

I held out hopes back then that he'd return in 1982, and Navratilova finally winning the US Open that year showed me that a player could beat "the jinx" and succeed through sheer stubborn perseverance, but Borg's whole career had been stubborn perseverance and I think his tank was empty once he knew how hard he'd have to work to get back to the top.

That's my feeling, anyway. Here's some YouTube vids of Borg v Mac in 1982, which are interesting shots into what might have been...

I really , really, really enjoyed watching the Angelic Assassin rip all of those vintage passing shots past McEnroe. Boy the Swede could play, eh?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

We have a thread titled "Will Rafa Pass Federer"? Since that question seems to be settled, the burning question now appears to be will Novak surpass Federer? Of course, before passing Federer, he must pass Rafa; but, let us not labor the obvious.

I posted my thoughts about this here . But, nehemeth pointed out that it may be a wrong thread for it. So, I created this thread. The floor is yours, ladies and gentlemen.

In retrospect, it looks like it would have been better to first labor "the obvious" before going for the ultimate.

I think it will be quite an achievement for Novak to pass Sampras/Nadal much less Federer.
Novak has played a lot. He appears to be wearying. It looks like Becker will soon be gone.

The Aussie Open is his best major surface by far. My best guess is if he is able to get over this funk he is in now, he can win 2 more there in the next 3 years. But he must win one more somewhere else.

If he doesn't get over this funk we may have seen his last major win. It may be difficult to believe, but it's not unknown for a player to suddenly stop winning major championships. The game moves on.

One feels that the younger players won't be stopped much longer and a big win or two by one or more of them will be enough to get them on a roll and cause the older guard to quickly fade away. When that happens, it could be very fast.

Remember that tour's bottom line needs to have exciting big rivalries to earn the revenue from spectators and sponsors. So those need to develop rapidly to replace the biggest ones of yesteryear.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Yes, there is a small chance that Novak would not win any more. If Novak does not win a slam in 2017, We can certainly start a thread titled "Will Novak Pass Rafa?". Until then, I still think he will do so, even though it is not obvious by any means now.

Also, things become trickier if Murray wins AO in 2017 and Rafa follows it up by winning RG 2017. Then, it clearly would become extremely difficult for Novak to pass Rafa, as he would need to win four more. In that case, we should start the thread immediately after RG'17.

 

[rafanoy1992]

In my opinion, as long as Nadal does not win another slam, then Djokovic will surpass Nadal in the slam count unless Djokovic only wins one more slam which is highly unlikely.

I just think Djokovic is too consistent and too great of a player not to win at least 3 more slams even though he is 29.5 years old. Also, I think he will conserve more of his energy towards the slams especially how he ended his 2016 season.

I do agree with GSM with his last point: If Nadal does win one more slam (it can be any slam), then it will be really tricky for Djokovic to surpass Nadal in the slam count.

As for the OP question, I always believed that Djokovic will not surpass Federer in the slam count. And after seeing Djokovic played in the second half of 2016, then my prediction has gotten stronger.

 

[El Dude]

My over/under for the final career Slam count of the Big Four:

Roger 17.3
Rafa 14.4
Novak 14.7
Andy 4.7

A decimal would roughly mean a percentage, Roger's 17.3 means I think he has roughly a 30% chance of winning #18.

A whole number above the current total just means "probably." So for instance, I think Novak will probably win at least two more, with a good chance of a third.

Now if and when another Slam is played, I'd adjust accordingly. For instance, if Novak wins the AO I'd push him to 15.5+. If Rafa wins AO I'd probably give him a 16+. If Andy wins it, he's at 5.5+, and if Roger won he'd go up to something like 18.5.

 

[rafanoy1992]

My over/under for the final career Slam count of the Big Four:

Roger 17.3
Rafa 14.4
Novak 14.7
Andy 4.7

A decimal would roughly mean a percentage, Roger's 17.3 means I think he has roughly a 30% chance of winning #18.

A whole number above the current total just means "probably." So for instance, I think Novak will probably win at least two more, with a good chance of a third.

Now if and when another Slam is played, I'd adjust accordingly. For instance, if Novak wins the AO I'd push him to 15.5+. If Rafa wins AO I'd probably give him a 16+. If Andy wins it, he's at 5.5+, and if Roger won he'd go up to something like 18.5.

In your honest opinion Dude, who will have more slams: Djokovic or Nadal? As a Nadal fan, I pick Djokovic just because he is still capable of winning 3 more slams. I will be happy to be wrong though...

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I would put money on Novak over Rafa - thus the higher number. But the gap has narrowed over the last half year. If you had asked me after Roland Garros, I would have given him a solid chance of at least catching Roger.

Now if Rafa wins AO it will mean he's back in a big way. I'd think he'd at least have another RG in him. But of course the chances of Rafa winning AO are quite unlikely...but we shall see!

 

[mrzz]

and if Roger won he'd go up to something like 18.5.

and half this board would go up to something like the moon!

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

It'd be good to see Rafa in the second week of Australian open (not at the cost of Roger though) going deep like until a few years ago. He only needs a rhythm. But I don't see that appearing before the clay season is well underway.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Is Becker being fired by Jalena for being a bad influence on Novak? uzzled

 

[Fiero425]

Is Becker being fired by Jalena for being a bad influence on Novak? uzzled

Boris is a bit of a sleaze! His history is riddled with stories tabloid ready! Tiriac was bad influence on Becker! :nono :dodgy:

 

[10isfan]

Is Becker leaving Djoke?