Will Novak pass Federer?

[Backhand_DTL]

What's interesting about Djokovic this year in Slams is that he really only played 3 great matches: QF against Nishikori in Australia, SF against Federer in Australia, and SF against Thiem in Paris.

I'm not saying he did not played well in other matches but those three matches are the only ones that you could say that he was at his peak throughout the match.

It is why I don't foresee him winning at least 4-5 more majors because it will get tougher for him physically and mentally in every slam match. However, the one thing that bodes well for him in the future is that there is nobody in the tour (younger than him) that could trouble him in the early rounds. So if he could go through th eearly rounds without spending too much energy, then I think he will be fine.

In my opinion the scoreline in the QF in Australia was more about Nishikori playing bad than Novak playing great but I would add the French Open final as a great performance (at least after the first set) and I think even the QF against Berdych was a clearly better match than the one in Australia.

At the moment catching or even passing Roger seems a lot further away than it did three months ago. To me the most important question is if Novak now really entered a state of somewhat sharp decline where he can't consistently keep up the physical level that's a foundation of his greatness anymore which might lead to significantly less consistency and more frequent injuries and continues to be vulnerable mentally or if he can basically resume the dominance he had from October 2014 to June 2016 once his recent physical and mental issues are fully behind him and his fitness level reaches 100% again.

The Australian Open 2017 might be a crucial tournament for his legacy. If he wins he would at least equal Roger as the greatest hard court player of the Open Era (same number of Slams, 4 titles at the Australian Open and 5 at the US Open might look nicer than a ratio of 7:2 but Novak has the bigger number of HC slam finals and Masters titles going for him) and should be well positioned to win at least two majors next year again and maybe another 2-3 in the years after. But if he doesn't it might truly signal the end of his time as the dominant player, probably put his No. 1 ranking under threat and increase the pressure for Roland Garros and Wimbledon with two slam wins in 2017 probably being the minimum requirement to still have a chance to reach Roger's total.

 

[isabelle]

He has to tie with Rafa and Sampras first. I really don't think road to slam final can be any easier than the past USO.

he was lucky in first rounds but maybe all those W/O and ret weren't an advantage ? he wasn't tested before meeting Stanimal

 

[delPoFearhand]

The new generation is (finally) on the rise as well- I bet we have at least 1 if not 2 first time slam winners next year between Thiem, Kyrgios, Pouille, or Zverev, not to mention Nishikori/Raonic.

My prediction: between father time and new talent rising, Djoko ends up plus or minus one with Rafa- so 13-15 total.

 

[El Dude]

I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which Novak wins only one more.

As for the young guys, I think Zverev is at least another year plus away--2018 at the earliest. But Thiem is a serious contender at the French Open at least, and Pouille is now in the mix, although maybe not quite Slam-worthy. Kyrgios? Who knows.

 

[Fiero425]

The new generation is (finally) on the rise as well- I bet we have at least 1 if not 2 first time slam winners next year between Thiem, Kyrgios, Pouille, or Zverev, not to mention Nishikori/Raonic.

My prediction: between father time and new talent rising, Djoko ends up plus or minus one with Rafa- so 13-15 total.

OMG, I hope so! Nole should get at least 1, prob. 2 though! - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html - - :angel:

 

[Riotbeard]

Yeah, I think 17 is a stretch. I also think this summer puts some serious questions in Novak's stock. I would say the USO, he had so many passes, that it's hard to count making the final a huge success, but in general this year, he has looked vulnerable. Hopefully he can get back together by next season.

 

[El Dude]

I would guess this is the new norm for Novak, Riot. Consider that he isn't getting younger and turns 30 in May, the young players on tour--Thiem, Pouille, Kyrgios, Zverev, etc--will continue to get better, the not-so-young players--Raonic, Kei in particular--will get hungrier. It is hard to imagine Novak re-asserting a level of dominance similar to 2015 to mid-2016.

That said, 1-2 Slams is very possible. I'd be very surprised if he didn't win at least won, and can see 2 being do-able. Three? Very unlikely, in my opinion.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak will pass Roger because there is no one who can stop him in a grand slam consistently but Stan and his own body. Novak has NEVER had any major surgery, his conditioning is still only probably surpassed by Murray. Murray is still a mental mess, Rafa hasn't made the proper counters to Novak's game(as a matter a fact, Novak is worried about Rafa as much as an elephant is worried about a fly on his butt!). No rising stars and Federer cannot defeat him in a best of 5 format. Its really depends on Novak's health. I would expect him to be the most dominant player on the tour for at least another 2-3 years.. that gives him a legitimate 12 more slams to get 6 slams.

 

[Kieran]

I dunno brother, I think Novak may suffer from motivation issues, and the usual wear and tear that afflicts players of his age...

 

[the AntiPusher]

I dunno brother, I think Novak may suffer from motivation issues, and the usual wear and tear that afflicts players of his age...

I have more confidence in Novak 's team then the other big 3 teams..not including Stan and magus Norman

 

[Fiero425]

I dunno brother, I think Novak may suffer from motivation issues, and the usual wear and tear that afflicts players of his age...

I have more confidence in Novak 's team then the other big 3 teams..not including Stan and magus Norman

I have to assume Nole's just worn down making final after final for the last several years, he hasn't had the breaks of Roger and Rafa who took off months at a time over their careers! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kieran]

I dunno brother, I think Novak may suffer from motivation issues, and the usual wear and tear that afflicts players of his age...

I have more confidence in Novak 's team then the other big 3 teams..not including Stan and magus Norman

I have to assume Nole's just worn down making final after final for the last several years, he hasn't had the breaks of Roger and Rafa who took off months at a time over their careers! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

I don't think Rafa actually wanted those breaks, you know? They were kinda sad and hampered his career. But when did Roger take months off? I musta missed it!

 

[Fiero425]

I have more confidence in Novak 's team then the other big 3 teams..not including Stan and magus Norman

I have to assume Nole's just worn down making final after final for the last several years, he hasn't had the breaks of Roger and Rafa who took off months at a time over their careers! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

I don't think Rafa actually wanted those breaks, you know? They were kinda sad and hampered his career. But when did Roger take months off? I musta missed it!

Well there is this year; thank you very much! He also had MONO several years ago to go along with tennis elbow IIRC! He definitely hasn't taken off like Rafa due to so called injuries! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :cover

 

[Kieran]

I have to assume Nole's just worn down making final after final for the last several years, he hasn't had the breaks of Roger and Rafa who took off months at a time over their careers! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

I don't think Rafa actually wanted those breaks, you know? They were kinda sad and hampered his career. But when did Roger take months off? I musta missed it!

Well there is this year; thank you very much! He also had MONO several years ago to go along with tennis elbow IIRC! He definitely hasn't taken off like Rafa due to so called injuries! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :cover

Ah okay, so you were wrong. Thanks!

 

[El Dude]

He needs six Slams to pass Roger, and he's only got one more chance before his 30th birthday. So he needs at least five after turning 30. Slams won after turning 30 in the Open Era:

4: Laver, Rosewall
2: Connors, Agassi, Wawrinka
1: Gimeno, Newcombe, Ashe, Gomez, Korda, Sampras, Federer

None (6+ winners): Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Wilander, Edberg, Becker, Nadal

Don't think I missed any. This is not to say that it can't be done, but it is a very tall order. We can imagine that if Novak and Rafa hadn't been around, Roger would have won many more...or it could be that chasing them kept him younger and hungrier than he would have been. You just never know. Novak doesn't have a younger pair to chase, and while this may seem like a benefit it could also hurt, to some degree.

In the end, we'll just have to see how it plays out. I suspect he'll get his next two relatively quickly, but 15 and 16 will be harder and slower, and then 17 and 18...well, we shall see.

 

[Fiero425]

I don't think Rafa actually wanted those breaks, you know? They were kinda sad and hampered his career. But when did Roger take months off? I musta missed it!

Well there is this year; thank you very much! He also had MONO several years ago to go along with tennis elbow IIRC! He definitely hasn't taken off like Rafa due to so called injuries! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :cover

Ah okay, so you were wrong. Thanks!

If that makes you feel better; FINE! :cover uzzled :nono :ras: :deadhorse :violins:

 

[Carol]

6 more GS? not even close unless the others player would become lame or one-armed :nono

 

[Fiero425]

He needs six Slams to pass Roger, and he's only got one more chance before his 30th birthday. So he needs at least five after turning 30. Slams won after turning 30 in the Open Era:

4: Laver, Rosewall
2: Connors, Agassi, Wawrinka
1: Gimeno, Newcombe, Ashe, Gomez, Korda, Sampras, Federer

None (6+ winners): Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Wilander, Edberg, Becker, Nadal

Don't think I missed any. This is not to say that it can't be done, but it is a very tall order. We can imagine that if Novak and Rafa hadn't been around, Roger would have won many more...or it could be that chasing them kept him younger and hungrier than he would have been. You just never know. Novak doesn't have a younger pair to chase, and while this may seem like a benefit it could also hurt, to some degree.

In the end, we'll just have to see how it plays out. I suspect he'll get his next two relatively quickly, but 15 and 16 will be harder and slower, and then 17 and 18...well, we shall see.

I wouldn't have added Borg to that obscure list since he retired well before 30 at 26 y.o.! He owned the French like Nadal does today! He would have won a lot more if the ATP had just given him a break back in early '82! He could have come back by French Open and still won with his usual pigeons still haunting the place like Vilas! I hardly think his countryman Wilander would have had the guts to beat Bjorn in all his glory! No doubt he would have been the one all were trying to surpass instead of Sampras 2 decades later! :angel: :dodgy:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

6 more GS? not even close unless the others player would become lame or one-armed :nono

I thought you belong to "no speculation" and "anything can happen" category or does it only selectively apply?

 

[El Dude]

I wouldn't have added Borg to that obscure list since he retired well before 30 at 26 y.o.! He owned the French like Nadal does today! He would have won a lot more if the ATP had just given him a break back in early '82! He could have come back by French Open and still won with his usual pigeons still haunting the place like Vilas! I hardly think his countryman Wilander would have had the guts to beat Bjorn in all his glory! No doubt he would have been the one all were trying to surpass instead of Sampras 2 decades later! :angel: :dodgy:

Except that Borg had lost his drive by 25 and even if he hadn't retired and kept on playing, unless he miraculously found his mojo again, he wouldn't have won any Slams past 27 or 28.

Part of what keeps people winning Slams into their 30s is drive. Bjorn lost his at 25. He probably would have won another Slam or two, maybe three or four, but I don't think any in his 30s.