Will Novak pass Federer?

[Sundaymorningguy]

What are you talking about clay has 3 Masters tournaments Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome.

 

[Riotbeard]

I support more grass tournaments! In this context though, it's hard to say Federer is a victim of certain types of courts, when he has been as successful on hard courts as an player in history.

I would never say Roger is a victim , no way. Just mentioning a very simple fact and wishing it was different. I mean , look at Roger's grass court resume. His winning percentage. Would he benefit from a grass masters or not? That is the question. Sure it is a hypothetical , but most would say yes.

same for Nadal ? if Masters was played on clay, he would have won a lot ??? he's unlucky because Masters is played on hardcourt ??? all players are "unlucky", some surfaces suit them better or not but I don't think there's one guy luckier than another

I actually agree with Isabelle. If this were a thread about wanting more grass tournaments, I would be in total agreement with Murat, but since it's in the context of comparing Fed and Novak it feels like sour-grapesish (and I know Murat that's not you overall!). I think big 3 player most disadvantaged by court surfaces. Federer is roughly as good on hard courts as grass, so the majority of masters were to his advantage. Rafa only had 3 masters a year on a surface where he was better than everyone, compared to Novak and Federer having 6. They also both have two slams that are on one of their best surfaces.

 

[herios]

This thread started as a debate about if Novak can pass Roger in the count of slams, now it eveolved into a debate about imaginary grass masters?uzzled
Irrelevant.

 

[Fiero425]

This thread started as a debate about if Novak can pass Roger in the count of slams, now it eveolved into a debate about imaginary grass masters?uzzled
Irrelevant.

True enough! Funny this same topic of a grass Masters was beat to death on another board I frequent! Pros are already complaining about the season being too long and the other Masters aren't going to graciously change or fall by the wayside so the topic is MOOT for the time being in my lifetime! :angel: :dodgy:

 

[herios]

I think in order to have a chance to even tie Roger Novak needs to win 2 more before turning 30.
That would mean 2 out of the next 3.
If he can do that, I think he has a good shot, because how he took care of his body and he managed to stay injury free.

 

[Fiero425]

I think in order to have a chance to even tie Roger Novak needs to win 2 more before turning 30.
That would mean 2 out of the next 3.
If he can do that, I think he has a good shot, because how he took care of his body and he managed to stay injury free.

I keep asking, who's supposed to stop him? No one takes care of himself better and he's managed his schedule well and isn't overplaying like he did back a few years ago! He'll never be my all time fave, but he doesn't offend me like some of these other characters that think they're the best and accomplishing little to nothing! :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Carol]

According to many posters here the players over 30 start the decline but it seems that for some of them Novak is the exception because in one more year he will be 30 and he needs 6 more GS to pass Roger and the others players maybe just one or two? hmmmm, it sounds unreal

 

[lob]

Yes Novak is an exception in the sense that among all times greats, he happens to be, by far, the best suited to and the best adapted to his contemporary conditions/field.

On a tangent: To me the player that parallels Novak the most in open era history is Lendl. IMO Lendl's GS final record, partly due to the insanely varied conditions on the tour then, and a ridiculously strong, specialized, field, leads us to unconscionably underestimate his greatness. Endurance wasn't anywhere near as decisive an advantage back then. He didn't go around the tour with a corporation dedicated to his performance. The ATP peak age was a good 5 years lower. He had to contend with Borg, Connors, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Wilander, Courier, even a bit of Sampras/Agassi. He was not just unloved but actively reviled by most fans. The guy competed with the best pure wooden racket players and the best pure synthetic racket players. It is only after 3 decades of tennis evolution that even avid ATP followers can truly appreciate his greatness.

If numbers can lie they surely do in his case. No wonder he loves dogs more than humans!

 

[El Dude]

According to many posters here the players over 30 start the decline but it seems that for some of them Novak is the exception because in one more year he will be 30 and he needs 6 more GS to pass Roger and the others players maybe just one or two? hmmmm, it sounds unreal

There's a historical tendency for players to decline somewhere in the age 27-33 range, with almost every player declining somewhat around age 30. Even old man Roger started to slip around age 27 (2008), although this was accentuated by mono and the rise of Rafa. But even when he resurged in 2009 at age 27-28, he wasn't quite the same player he had been at his very best in 2006 (24-25).

Or look at Rafa. His three best years were 2008 (21-22), 2010 (23-24), and 2013 (26-27). The last is now looking like his last blast of peak form before declining in 2014.

Novak has a unique trajectory in that he jumped to his peak in 2011 (age 23-24) but then plateaued for a few years before rising again in 2015-16 (age 27-29). Some have pointed out that this has been inflated by weak competition. I suspect that we'll see a bit of a drop next year, in 2017 (29-30), which will be cushioned by further weak competition, and so it won't be until 2018 (30-31) that decline becomes obvious, if probably slow.

This is why I think Novak can win about 4 more between 2016-17 (six Slams), and then 1-3 more after that. That is based upon his current form and likely decline trajectory, and upcoming field.

That said, the pessimistic possibility is that he gets upset in Wimbledon and the US Open, which breaks his confidence, and then he only manages another 1-3 Slams and finishes with 13-15.

Either way, I think it is probable that he equals or surpasses Rafa, and about 50-50 that he equals or surpasses Roger.

Yes Novak is an exception in the sense that among all times greats, he happens to be, by far, the best suited to and the best adapted to his contemporary conditions/field.

Very important point, although not entirely true if we consider that Roger was equally well adapted to the conditions/field of 2004-07.

On a tangent: To me the player that parallels Novak the most in open era history is Lendl. IMO Lendl's GS final record, partly due to the insanely varied conditions on the tour then, and a ridiculously strong, specialized, field, leads us to unconscionably underestimate his greatness. Endurance wasn't anywhere near as decisive an advantage back then. He didn't go around the tour with a corporation dedicated to his performance. The ATP peak age was a good 5 years lower. He had to contend with Borg, Connors, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Wilander, Courier, even a bit of Sampras/Agassi. He was not just unloved but actively reviled by most fans. The guy competed with the best pure wooden racket players and the best pure synthetic racket players. It is only after 3 decades of tennis evolution that even avid ATP followers can truly appreciate his greatness.

If numbers can lie they surely do in his case. No wonder he loves dogs more than humans!

I fully agree with you here. Lendl is a bit underrated. The weird thing about his record is that he became a powerhouse at non-Slam events in the early 80s but just couldn't get over the hump and win a Slam until the ripe old age of 24. His Slam record largely reflects the fact that he was the latest blooming all-time Great in the Open Era, at least in terms of Slams. If he has won half of the four Slam finals he lost before winning one, his record would be 10-9, which would is a bit closer to his "real talent level," in my opinion.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I had to bump this thread. :snicker

 

[rafanoy1992]

Since the 2016 Slam season has just ended, I want to bump this thread again.

Djokovic is sitting at 12 slams right now and he is almost 29 years old and 4 months. My question is that do you guys still think Djokovic will surpass Federer's slam count?

I still think he will get close like 15 or 16 slams but I don't think he will tie or surpass Federer's count. Looking at this year's US Open, you could tell he is not as invincible anymore like last year. Now, he is still by far the best player in the tour. But once he gets closer to 16-17 slams and once he turns 30 years old, it will be difficult for him to win slams at consistent rate.

Also, as much pain that I have to say this but I do think he will surpass Nadal in the slam count. I just think Nadal in the past couple of years have showed nothing to win at least 1 more major. I mean if Nadal could squeeze out 1 more major, then I could see him edging out Djokovic in the slam count but as of right now, I see Djokovic winning more slams than Nadal.

 

[El Dude]

Since the 2016 Slam season has just ended, I want to bump this thread again.

Djokovic is sitting at 12 slams right now and he is almost 29 years old and 4 months. My question is that do you guys still think Djokovic will surpass Federer's slam count?

I still think he will get close like 15 or 16 slams but I don't think he will tie or surpass Federer's count. Looking at this year's US Open, you could tell he is not as invincible anymore like last year. Now, he is still by far the best player in the tour. But once he gets closer to 16-17 slams and once he turns 30 years old, it will be difficult for him to win slams at consistent rate.

Also, as much pain that I have to say this but I do think he will surpass Nadal in the slam count. I just think Nadal in the past couple of years have showed nothing to win at least 1 more major. I mean if Nadal could squeeze out 1 more major, then I could see him edging out Djokovic in the slam count but as of right now, I see Djokovic winning more slams than Nadal.

I think you are right on. He really needed another Slam this year. Even if he wins the AO, he would still need to win 4 Slams after his 30th birthday, which is a tall order. I think 15-16, with Rafa at 14-15 and Roger stuck at 17.

 

[Carol]

I don't think it's a good idea to count the chickens before they are hatched
Nobody knows who will tie or surpass Federer in GS, just pure speculations because many things could happen and things sometimes changes in one day, or a week or in a month and we know that the worst is the injuries. Many Federer's fans were expecting for almost 4 years that he would get the !8 but his age and the knee injury didn't allow him to get it and I don't think he will but you never know
And about Rafa and Novak we'll see, they had just one year apart and it's clear that nobody can win all the time as we have seen many times. Novak has had very good luck being injury free but that can change too. Rafa has gone through very hard times physically and therefore mentally too. Wawrinka at his 29 years old won his first GS and at 31 his third and having not very good year until the USO
Muzz also still has 3 GS and having a much better year than Stan he couldn't do too much in the USO
So I'd like to wait and to see what is going on in these next years before "to count the chickens"

 

[Fiero425]

Since the 2016 Slam season has just ended, I want to bump this thread again.

Djokovic is sitting at 12 slams right now and he is almost 29 years old and 4 months. My question is that do you guys still think Djokovic will surpass Federer's slam count?

I still think he will get close like 15 or 16 slams but I don't think he will tie or surpass Federer's count. Looking at this year's US Open, you could tell he is not as invincible anymore like last year. Now, he is still by far the best player in the tour. But once he gets closer to 16-17 slams and once he turns 30 years old, it will be difficult for him to win slams at consistent rate.

Also, as much pain that I have to say this but I do think he will surpass Nadal in the slam count. I just think Nadal in the past couple of years have showed nothing to win at least 1 more major. I mean if Nadal could squeeze out 1 more major, then I could see him edging out Djokovic in the slam count but as of right now, I see Djokovic winning more slams than Nadal.

I think you are right on. He really needed another Slam this year. Even if he wins the AO, he would still need to win 4 Slams after his 30th birthday, which is a tall order. I think 15-16, with Rafa at 14-15 and Roger stuck at 17.

I'm sticking with that range as well; 15-16! :angel: :dodgy: :cover

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think it's a good idea to count the chickens before they are hatched
Nobody knows who will tie or surpass Federer in GS, just pure speculations because many things could happen and things sometimes changes in one day, or a week or in a month and we know that the worst is the injuries. Many Federer's fans were expecting for almost 4 years that he would get the !8 but his age and the knee injury didn't allow him to get it and I don't think he will but you never know
And about Rafa and Novak we'll see, they had just one year apart and it's clear that nobody can win all the time as we have seen many times. Novak has had very good luck being injury free but that can change too. Rafa has gone through very hard times physically and therefore mentally too. Wawrinka at his 29 years old won his first GS and at 31 his third and having not very good year until the USO
Muzz also still has 3 GS and having a much better year than Stan he couldn't do too much in the USO
So I'd like to wait and to see what is going on in these next years before "to count the chickens"

Dear Carole,

Thanks for stating the obvious.

Yes, nobody knows and it is all speculation. But, the point of the thread is to speculate.

Sincerely,

GSM

 

[Carol]

I don't think it's a good idea to count the chickens before they are hatched
Nobody knows who will tie or surpass Federer in GS, just pure speculations because many things could happen and things sometimes changes in one day, or a week or in a month and we know that the worst is the injuries. Many Federer's fans were expecting for almost 4 years that he would get the !8 but his age and the knee injury didn't allow him to get it and I don't think he will but you never know
And about Rafa and Novak we'll see, they had just one year apart and it's clear that nobody can win all the time as we have seen many times. Novak has had very good luck being injury free but that can change too. Rafa has gone through very hard times physically and therefore mentally too. Wawrinka at his 29 years old won his first GS and at 31 his third and having not very good year until the USO
Muzz also still has 3 GS and having a much better year than Stan he couldn't do too much in the USO
So I'd like to wait and to see what is going on in these next years before "to count the chickens"

Dear Carole,


Thanks for stating the obvious.

Yes, nobody knows and it is all speculation. But, the point of the thread is to speculate.

Sincerely,

GSM

Dear GSM

Thanks for you clarification but I can see more comments 'ensuring' than 'speculating'

Sincerely,

Carol

 

[BIG3]

He has to tie with Rafa and Sampras first. I really don't think road to slam final can be any easier than the past USO.

 

[rafanoy1992]

What's interesting about Djokovic this year in Slams is that he really only played 3 great matches: QF against Nishikori in Australia, SF against Federer in Australia, and SF against Thiem in Paris.

I'm not saying he did not played well in other matches but those three matches are the only ones that you could say that he was at his peak throughout the match.

It is why I don't foresee him winning at least 4-5 more majors because it will get tougher for him physically and mentally in every slam match. However, the one thing that bodes well for him in the future is that there is nobody in the tour (younger than him) that could trouble him in the early rounds. So if he could go through th eearly rounds without spending too much energy, then I think he will be fine.

 

[Fiero425]

What's interesting about Djokovic this year in Slams is that he really only played 3 great matches: QF against Nishikori in Australia, SF against Federer in Australia, and SF against Thiem in Paris.

I'm not saying he did not played well in other matches but those three matches are the only ones that you could say that he was at his peak throughout the match.

It is why I don't foresee him winning at least 4-5 more majors because it will get tougher for him physically and mentally in every slam match. However, the one thing that bodes well for him in the future is that there is nobody in the tour (younger than him) that could trouble him in the early rounds. So if he could go through th eearly rounds without spending too much energy, then I think he will be fine.

I'm not ready to kick dirt on his grave, but I've been saying Nole hasn't played that well since Qatar! I think if he takes some time off, he has every chance to match his usual FALL season and take the YEC! He doesn't need it, but records all add up; esp. since he may not get to 17 after all! He needed this USO with all the breaks he got along the way! The GAWDs were looking out for him, but he GAGGED! :cover :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[El Dude]

I don't think it's a good idea to count the chickens before they are hatched
Nobody knows who will tie or surpass Federer in GS, just pure speculations because many things could happen and things sometimes changes in one day, or a week or in a month and we know that the worst is the injuries. Many Federer's fans were expecting for almost 4 years that he would get the !8 but his age and the knee injury didn't allow him to get it and I don't think he will but you never know
And about Rafa and Novak we'll see, they had just one year apart and it's clear that nobody can win all the time as we have seen many times. Novak has had very good luck being injury free but that can change too. Rafa has gone through very hard times physically and therefore mentally too. Wawrinka at his 29 years old won his first GS and at 31 his third and having not very good year until the USO
Muzz also still has 3 GS and having a much better year than Stan he couldn't do too much in the USO
So I'd like to wait and to see what is going on in these next years before "to count the chickens"

Translation: "I'm not ready to accept the strong likelihood that Rafa will win no more than maybe 1 more Slam, and possibly 0."