Will Nadal pass Federer?

[Moxie]

If you consider one set in a final vs. the greatest player who ever lived more telling than winning 4 out of 5 slams, I disagree.

You're willing to spend pages arguing over a few points. (Albeit important ones.) I don't think it's wrong to point out that Djokovic went completely wobbly for a whole set on Sunday. Which no one has managed to explain.

 

[Moxie]

I for one assumed that Mike One was engaging in a tongue-in-cheek forecast with total dominance (except for FO) by Djokovic. And speaking of hysteria, I find your critique of Mike One to be just that, along with incredibly inappropriate to impart personality characteristics to a total stranger on a tennis forum. I think it's fine to take issue with views that any poster takes, but making statements about their personality, etc. is WAY out of bounds.

I don't believe I've made any comments about Mike's personality. I have only commented on what he has actually said. As far as I can tell, Mike has no personality at all.

 

[rafanoy1992]

You're willing to spend pages arguing over a few points. (Albeit important ones.) I don't think it's wrong to point out that Djokovic went completely wobbly for a whole set on Sunday. Which no one has managed to explain.

Not only that he lost his serve right after breaking Federer's serve at 4-2 in the fifth set. In addition at 7-7 he lost his serve after he had a 30-love lead.

Finally, he almost lost his serve at 11-11 in the fifth after having 40-0 lead.

 

[rafanoy1992]

On a serious note: While I still think Djokovic will not surpass Federer (he might surpass Nadal though), I would not be surprised if he does surpass both players.

However, Sunday's final showed some signs that winning those 5 slams will not be easy for him mentally and physically going forward. Yes, he still won the big points and yes he faced probably the best male tennis player to ever lived but those walkabouts in 2nd set AND especially in the 4th set is something to look in the future. Furthermore, he looked physically spent towards the end of the match. Being 32 years old is different than being 28 years old and he totally felt that in the final. The great thing about him is that his mind was still clear and strong especially when Federer was serving for the title.

 

[brokenshoelace]

You're willing to spend pages arguing over a few points. (Albeit important ones.) I don't think it's wrong to point out that Djokovic went completely wobbly for a whole set on Sunday. Which no one has managed to explain.

It's not wrong to point out he went wobbly for a whole set. And yes, we may not be able to explain why. Mental letdown? His game deserted him? Roger too good? All of the above? Maybe.

What I don't agree with however, is your potential explanation, which is a more macro view of him showing signs of slowing down. Slowing down in a set and slowing down in general are two different things. The former CAN be an indicator, however, I think it's pretty rich to suggest that it's the case here. I mean, just a few months ago, he spanked Nadal in the AO final without breaking a sweat. We could have formed a narrative after that match that there are no signs of Novak slowing down. So what happened? He slowed down 6 months later? I don't buy that yet. I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest as much (although I don't think he's as good as he used to be in say, 2011 or 2015, but that's normal). I think it was one of those "these things happen in tennis" moments. I mean shit, he went missing for a set, Rafa went missing for a whole fucking match in the AO final. Does that mean there should have been big picture takeaways about him?

 

[MikeOne]

I for one assumed that Mike One was engaging in a tongue-in-cheek forecast with total dominance (except for FO) by Djokovic. And speaking of hysteria, I find your critique of Mike One to be just that, along with incredibly inappropriate to impart personality characteristics to a total stranger on a tennis forum. I think it's fine to take issue with views that any poster takes, but making statements about their personality, etc. is WAY out of bounds.

lol. See, some of the posters have an obsession with me, personally. Whilst i don't want to be cocky and claim i get the better of them on substance, you have to wonder why they resort to the ad hominem. I can't even claim i was a Djokovic fan back in 07-09, in their mind, i'm just a Sampras nut who hates Federer and so i can't be a fan of any other player; also, anything i say, has no merit to it. They need to start doing a better job sticking to the subject matter, ad hominem's is evidence of who is getting the better of the arguments. As for Moxie, this is a poster i largely ignore who has decided to get personal, instead of just sticking to the subject matter. I appreciate the psychiatric evaluation but i rather get that outside of the tennis forums.

 

[MikeOne]

On a serious note: While I still think Djokovic will not surpass Federer (he might surpass Nadal though), I would not be surprised if he does surpass both players.

However, Sunday's final showed some signs that winning those 5 slams will not be easy for him mentally and physically going forward. Yes, he still won the big points and yes he faced probably the best male tennis player to ever lived but those walkabouts in 2nd set AND especially in the 4th set is something to look in the future. Furthermore, he looked physically spent towards the end of the match. Being 32 years old is different than being 28 years old and he totally felt that in the final. The great thing about him is that his mind was still clear and strong especially when Federer was serving for the title.

I have made this point before - the main issue with players in mid to late 30s, is injuries, motivation, fitness and priorities. If a player in mid to late 30s can check the box on all 4, he/she can sustain a top level. The only thing that is hard to do is be as consistent as in the earlier years as one thing that does change is recovery. In 20s, a guy like Federer could recover from a 5 setter easier than he can today. This does affect consistency day in day out. This is why it is important to manage schedule better, be smarter. What is clear to me though, is that Federer today can play at the same level he did back in 04-07 for periods of time. Was his semi-final loss to Nadal at RG any worse than his defeat in 08 finals? Didn't he defeat Nadal in 5 sets at AO a few years ago but lost to Rafa in 09 AO finals? Didn't he routinely defeat Nadal in Wimbledon semis this year yet needed 5 sets in 07 and lost to Rafa in 08 wimbledon? Of course, Federer fans will claim 'it's just tactics, had Federer used same tactics back then...' but reality is that Federer, today, can truly attain a very high level, something his fans will not admit. What he struggles to do, is sustain that level throughout the year and this is where age comes into play. Federer has been smart with his schedule though.. he is not playing as much as he did in his prime and this is why he able to make these runs in last few years where he has won grand slams. Federer won 2 slams in 2017 and 1 last year... let's not forget.

as far as Djokovic is concerned, and Nadal, injury is the most important factor. Djokovic and Nadal play a more physically demanding style than Federer. If Djokovic can avoid injuries, i think he will have no issues with motivation, fitness and priorities. I can't see how he doesn't win at least 4 more slams. Injuries can come out of nowhere, Nadal has lost a couple of years due to them and Novak lost opportunities to win a few slams around 16-18 due to injuries. It is likely, Nadal and Novak will run into injuries in next few years. What i have noticed is that Rafa and Novak have dominated in spurts. Rafa - 08, 10,13,17. He disappeared due to injury in 09,around 14-15 and took some time off last year. Djokovic dominated in 11, slowed down between 12-14, dominated around 15-16, suffered injury and went MIA for a couple of years and then has dominated for about 1 year. They haven't been able to maintain this type of level for more than 1-2 years, in spurts. This means, if history repeats itself, Novak will slump next year.

 

[brokenshoelace]

lol. See, some of the posters have an obsession with me, personally.

Imagine actually believing this.

 

[MikeOne]

Imagine actually believing this.

plenty of evidence to go around.... >50% of what you guys post is not substantive, it's a deep look into my history as a fan, who i'm a fan of, discussions about Pete etc... stay on subject... no need to cop out and turn the subject from matches, players to 'Who is Mikeone'.

notice how every nadal-djoker-fed thread has become a discussion about me, how did that happen?

 

[Moxie]

It's not wrong to point out he went wobbly for a whole set. And yes, we may not be able to explain why. Mental letdown? His game deserted him? Roger too good? All of the above? Maybe.

What I don't agree with however, is your potential explanation, which is a more macro view of him showing signs of slowing down. Slowing down in a set and slowing down in general are two different things. The former CAN be an indicator, however, I think it's pretty rich to suggest that it's the case here. I mean, just a few months ago, he spanked Nadal in the AO final without breaking a sweat. We could have formed a narrative after that match that there are no signs of Novak slowing down. So what happened? He slowed down 6 months later? I don't buy that yet. I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest as much (although I don't think he's as good as he used to be in say, 2011 or 2015, but that's normal). I think it was one of those "these things happen in tennis" moments. I mean shit, he went missing for a set, Rafa went missing for a whole fucking match in the AO final. Does that mean there should have been big picture takeaways about him?

My point isn't that he's "slowing down." My point is about the mental walkabouts, which he's always been somewhat susceptible to. (Does anyone remember @nehmeth, a big Djokovic fan, talking about being on the "Nole-coaster," even all the way back to '12?) As they get older, they become a bit more inclined to mental lapses, nerves, dips in level. My reason for asking was really that he looked unwell, as Don Fabio also commented on, and was wondering if he'd given any explanation. In any case, maybe I am hoping that he's less-reliably at a top level, whether it's fitness or focus, but we've seen it happen to all of them as they get older...the off-sets and off-days do feature a bit more.

 

[nehmeth]

My point isn't that he's "slowing down." My point is about the mental walkabouts, which he's always been somewhat susceptible to. (Does anyone remember @nehmeth, a big Djokovic fan, talking about being on the "Nole-coaster," even all the way back to '12?) As they get older, they become a bit more inclined to mental lapses, nerves, dips in level. My reason for asking was really that he looked unwell, as Don Fabio also commented on, and was wondering if he'd given any explanation. In any case, maybe I am hoping that he's less-reliably at a top level, whether it's fitness or focus, but we've seen it happen to all of them as they get older...the off-sets and off-days do feature a bit more.

In golf, they called it getting the "yips". I remember as a little kid, Arnold Palmer (who was a lethal putter), suddenly missing shots he would sink with his eyes closed. That's the first time I heard the term. Fed has kept an incredibly high level for someone his age, but in those "moments" when he would put an opponent away, now he often misses or makes a poor choice. Djokovic has always had the mental lapses, more due to his emotional makeup rather than age. These next couple years will be interesting for them. Roger, Rafa and Nole all benefit from the fact that there is no one of their caliber climbing the ranks

 

[Nadalfan2013]

On a serious note: While I still think Djokovic will not surpass Federer (he might surpass Nadal though),

If you think that Djokovic won't surpass Federer, then he certainly won't surpass Nadal either since Nadal will surpass Federer.

 

[don_fabio]

Big3 all know that slams are still theirs to grab as the new guys are not on that level yet. What is missing now is the 4th wheel, someone consistent going deep in slams. I want to see title contender in SF and F of slams, not Agut, Pouille or Anderson with all due respect to them. Thiem is doing his part in RG, but not anywhere else.

Mike said injury is the biggest concern for both Rafa and Novak and I agree with that. It will be very interesting how these 2 guys age and how long they will be able to still win slams. Fed set a bar high already. Half a year ago I tought Fed will never win another slam, but now I am not so sure like before. I started to think that he will get some more chances.

When Novak dissapeared last time he underestimated Fed maybe just a bit and never tought he will win 3 slams within a year time. He don't have this luxury now and he knows it. Same could be said for Nadal. If Novak wasn't there Wimb18 an AO19 would be his.

These yips or dips or whatever the name we put, we will have to see more from Novak and Nadal. I wonder how many slams will be lost opportunities due to that when they meet hot opponents.

 

[Moxie]

In golf, they called it getting the "yips". I remember as a little kid, Arnold Palmer (who was a lethal putter), suddenly missing shots he would sink with his eyes closed. That's the first time I heard the term. Fed has kept an incredibly high level for someone his age, but in those "moments" when he would put an opponent away, now he often misses or makes a poor choice. Djokovic has always had the mental lapses, more due to his emotional makeup rather than age. These next couple years will be interesting for them. Roger, Rafa and Nole all benefit from the fact that there is no one of their caliber climbing the ranks

I remember when he had the yips on his serve. I realize Djokovic's mental lapses aren't age-related, but I do think keeping up the mentality, in particular, becomes more difficult as an athlete gets older. For sure the youngsters are not stepping up on the big stage yet. Woeful showing at Wimbledon from them.

 

[Moxie]

Big3 all know that slams are still theirs to grab as the new guys are not on that level yet. What is missing now is the 4th wheel, someone consistent going deep in slams. I want to see title contender in SF and F of slams, not Agut, Pouille or Anderson with all due respect to them. Thiem is doing his part in RG, but not anywhere else.

Mike said injury is the biggest concern for both Rafa and Novak and I agree with that. It will be very interesting how these 2 guys age and how long they will be able to still win slams. Fed set a bar high already. Half a year ago I tought Fed will never win another slam, but now I am not so sure like before. I started to think that he will get some more chances.

When Novak dissapeared last time he underestimated Fed maybe just a bit and never tought he will win 3 slams within a year time. He don't have this luxury now and he knows it. Same could be said for Nadal. If Novak wasn't there Wimb18 an AO19 would be his.

These yips or dips or whatever the name we put, we will have to see more from Novak and Nadal. I wonder how many slams will be lost opportunities due to that when they meet hot opponents.

I agree that we're missing that 4th or 5th Beatle. There was Murray, there was Stan, and for so long we thought Del Potro could be the guy, even with all the injury issues. Now, even if Murray comes back to singles, I don't think anyone believes that he'll be a major player. Stan is aging out. Del Potro can't string together enough months healthy to stage anything even vaguely resembling a comeback. Cilic, IMO, just isn't the guy. Thiem, as you point out, only seems to manage a decent charge on clay. My 3 best guesses are Tsitsipas, Khachanov and Auger Alisassime, for the next guy to step up, though FAA is still pretty young. It would be great to have a serious contender step up, but I think it's going to be more like what I bolded above from you: that the undercard will cause upsets, but isn't ready to shake up the world, yet.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My point isn't that he's "slowing down." My point is about the mental walkabouts, which he's always been somewhat susceptible to. (Does anyone remember @nehmeth, a big Djokovic fan, talking about being on the "Nole-coaster," even all the way back to '12?) As they get older, they become a bit more inclined to mental lapses, nerves, dips in level. My reason for asking was really that he looked unwell, as Don Fabio also commented on, and was wondering if he'd given any explanation. In any case, maybe I am hoping that he's less-reliably at a top level, whether it's fitness or focus, but we've seen it happen to all of them as they get older...the off-sets and off-days do feature a bit more.

Novak is not certainly dominating. The newbies beat him in Bercy and O2 last year. So, Novak is certainly more susceptible to a loss at the hands of nextgen than Fedal.

One may say that Novak is focusing on Slams mostly nowadays and so the above slips occurred. But, I don't completely buy it. The above losses also are indicators of him slowing down. He is not able to beat the youngsters with eyes closed and half mind in Bollywood. He has to focus his body and mind in order to win.

 

[Moxie]

Novak is not certainly dominating. The newbies beat him in Bercy and O2 last year. So, Novak is certainly more susceptible to a loss at the hands of nextgen than Fedal.

One may say that Novak is focusing on Slams mostly nowadays and so the above slips occurred. But, I don't completely buy it. The above losses also are indicators of him slowing down. He is not able to beat the youngsters with eyes closed and half mind in Bollywood. He has to focus his body and mind in order to win.

As to the bolded above, I'm inclined to think that could change at any time, meaning they'll all eventually lose more often to the youngsters. (PS: You really still bringing up the Bollywood thing?)

 

[britbox]

Novak is not certainly dominating. The newbies beat him in Bercy and O2 last year. So, Novak is certainly more susceptible to a loss at the hands of nextgen than Fedal.

One may say that Novak is focusing on Slams mostly nowadays and so the above slips occurred. But, I don't completely buy it. The above losses also are indicators of him slowing down. He is not able to beat the youngsters with eyes closed and half mind in Bollywood. He has to focus his body and mind in order to win.

Well, I guess it's dependent on what you call dominating. When it matters, right now, he is dominating. Aka Winning. It is what it is.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, I guess it's dependent on what you call dominating. When it matters, right now, he is dominating. Aka Winning. It is what it is.

Yes, the keyword is underlined. People project from there to easy and continued tremendous success. I think there are enough indications that it is not all going to be a walk in the park for him either, even if he manages to continue to succeed.

 

[Jelenafan]

Thiem, as you point out, only seems to manage a decent charge on clay.

Grass seems a harder row to hoe for him I would agree, but I have hope for Theim for HC, he’s already won a Masters on HC ( over Federer no less) and had two heartbreaking 5 set losses at the USO to JMDP and Nadal.