Based on how Serena played on the red clay surfaces of Madrid and Rome, she is the favorite. That said, her greatest opponent, and I quote, "is the woman in the mirror."
Who will win the French Open?
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MargaretMcAleer
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jhar26 said:
The one obstacle? If Vika is in her half of the draw I would take Vika over Maria. Maria has never defended a Grand Slam title and has never even won titles in consecutive years.
I think all the pressure will be on Maria to defend.
Obviously I think Serena will win. Serena thrives on raised expectation based on previous failures.
jhar26
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sk310 said:
When I say "the one obstacle" I don't mean that she can't lose to anyone else. I just mean that she's sure to lose to Serena (well, she probably has a 10% chance against her) while she has a fighting chance or is in fact the favorite against everyone else, including Azarenka on this surface in my opinion.
I'm not a great believer in the concept of defending titles. She doesn't defend her FO title. She is the 2012 champion, no matter what happens this time. It's a new tournament - the 2013 edition. And the fact that she's only won majors in even years is really nothing more than a coincidence.
SingleBackhand
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sk310 said:
I think sk310 has a point. It's way more then just a coincidence. Maria has been like clockwork winning her slams on even years. I actually expected her to win a slam in 2010 already but obviously she was not in shape yet that year. Also the "never defended a Grand Slam title" has a certain significance. It really would surprise me a lot if Maria can win the French Open once again this year. I however think that she can go deep. At least a QF or something higher. Of course my speculations are as good as any of the other one's and Maria has the tendency to do the unexpected. We shall have to wait and see
tented
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Calvy said:
I think the Maria fans haven't found this thread yet, so that will change. As for Stosur, I don't know about that. I guess we have a fan who doesn't post anything about her, and only votes.
Sundaymorningguy
Grand Slam Champion
Maria is fairly consistent at the French Open I believe Roland Garros is one of her steadier slams aside from Australia. She should do fairly well here. As much as everything points to Serena, I am going to take it a match at a time. It boggles my mind sometimes how dominant Serena can be and then all of a sudden falls apart especially in Paris for some reason. 2009, 2010 and 2012 being prime examples. Hell, I would even throw 2003 and 2004 in there versus Henin and Capriati, respectively. I know Serena let the crowd and that incident get to her, but no reason to be 5-2 up in the third against Henin and not be able to win one more game despite the circumstances.
Sundaymorningguy said:
I don't agree she "fell apart" in 2009 and 2010, as she did make the quarter in each respective year, and was thisclose to winning those quarterfinals, but her opponent didn't exactly lay down. 2003 and 2012 were definitely a situations where she fell apart, that I agree.
But, like you stated, one match at a time, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
tented
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jhar26 said:
So true. If you look at the names of who votes for whom, and in how many sets, this notion becomes irrefutably clear.
One stunning example I recently saw were fans of Player X voting for that player to win in straights, even though that person had never even won a single set in 10+ encounters against their opponent.
And the only reason such things happen here is because it's a free, fun-only endeavor. If those same people were actually placing monetary bets, I don't think they would still be voting for their favorites, just because they want them to win.
Sundaymorningguy
Grand Slam Champion
Calvy said:
I am not saying her opponents didn't improve in those moments in 2009 and 2010, but Serena certainly didn't buckle down in those moments either.
I totally agree with everything you wrote.tented said:
But, then that begs the question, should there be two polls? A poll for who you think WILL WIN, and a poll asking whom you HOPE WIN?
Sundaymorningguy
Grand Slam Champion
The good news for Serena is the longer she extends her streak the more confidence she has and the less her opponents have knowing she is playing tough which can be an advantage when say the first serve doesn't land in the box. However, I must say Serena has been serving a lot smarter than she has in the past on clay. She is mixing up the pace and depth of her serve especially using the kick serve rather effectively. I wish she threw in a few more body serves especially on crucial points and even on some second serves. I think at this point her having a lower first serve percentage is probably because of fatigue and making it farther in tournaments. Her patience on clay is better too. She doesn't seem to be getting frustrated or surprised her serve is being returned rather better prepared with her footwork on the return.
Sundaymorningguy
Grand Slam Champion
We will see I am quite curious to see how the draw turns out. I am wondering if Radwanska is going to play if she pulls out that could effect the draw for the better for some players ie Errani and maybe Li. I would like to see how the draw stacks for Serena,Maria and Azarenka.