When will Nadal win another tourney ?

[Riotbeard]

Hey Push:

“At the French Open he (Novak) played too tentative, he wanted Stan (Wawrinka) to miss the balls, but you are not going to win a Grand Slam final by waiting for the other guy to miss.” - Boris Becker

link - http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/wimbledon-2015-final-brain-game-djokovic-federer

Meanwhile, Stan redlined for pretty much the entire match. Had Novak gone after the ball more, Stan still might have won, but it would have been a helluva lot more interesting final.

It's really rare to see someone go after the ball if their opponent was hitting it as big, and as cleanly as Stan was. Very few players actually fight fire with fire (I can think of Blake, Gonzalez and the those type of guys that will just go after the ball no matter what, and I don't think it's a particularly good idea), but it's really hard to beat your opponent at a game he does better than you.

Novak was hitting the ball aggressively enough in the first set (nothing spectacular or anything) but he didn't suddenly just stop being aggressive for no reason. That's the thing in tennis, what happens on one side of the net directly affects what happens on the other. There's a reason in all of my years of watching tennis, when someone has a quasi career best performance in which everything clicks, they look intimidatingly unstoppable.

It's not that Novak couldn't have done anything. But what he could have done is pretty theoretical and not at all easy to do under the barrage that Stan was throwing at him. Players' natural reaction when an "inferior" opponent catches fire is often "let's see how long he can keep this up" which makes enough sense when you think about how many matches they've won by basically weathering the storm.

The surface makes a difference too, as it gives Stan more time to line up his balls and in a way negates Novak's counter-punching (the idea that counter-punching is best suited for clay in today's game is outdated), so he had a real hard time turning rallies around compared to their AO matches. As in, yes Novak has more time to get to Stan's balls, but conversely, Stan has more time to go for huge shots even from miles behind the baseline - something that he does extremely well.

The big hitters, especially the ones with at least solid backhands, seem to be somewhat difficult match-ups for Novak on clay. Them having more time for hitting aggressive shots is probably a more important advantage than Novak having more time to get balls back.

There's not only the match against Wawrinka as an evidence but also his clay-matches against Berdych, which have all been quite close or the tough match against Cilic at last year's French Open. With Tsonga it's a bit different, as his backhand is a clear weakness and he tries to finish points at the net much more, but even then Tsonga could easily have won their match at the French Open 2012.

Another element is that Wawrinka on a good day can be dangerous from basically any position on the court, whereas Novak is used to having at least one pattern where the opponent can't consistently hurt him (usually backhand crosscourt exchanges). I think that's why Wawrinka is also able to trouble Novak on rather high bouncing hard courts, while Berdych, Tsonga and Cilic are basically hopeless on any HC.

On the lower bouncing HCs in Asia or at the indoor tournaments Novak has beaten all these players mostly very easily since 2012. If I remember correctly Wawrinka stated that it is extremely difficult to attack Novak's deep, low shots especially off the backhand, on those surfaces after their match at the WTF last year. Of the big hitters only Del Potro had multiple close matches with him at that part of the year in 2012 and 2013 but couldn't get a win either.

I agree with this, but it's not a novak thing. Big hitters, when they are playing out of their mind, for obvious reasons can upset the balance of the top players and do so more often than any other type of second tier player (hint soderling vs. nadal, delpo vs. fed, delpo vs. nadal, delpo vs. novak). The thing about really big hitters is they actually bring something to the table that goes beyond the skills of the big 4 (Usually I would say 3, but for these purposes, it's worth including Andy).

The thing about a guy like Ferrer is he can't do anything the big 4 can't do better. Tsonga hits a bigger serve and pure-power forehand than any of the big 4, but has weaknesses. Same with aspects of the game of Berdych, soderling, delpo, and even a guy like Isner. If they are playing their absolute best, and every low-percentage shot is working, then they can take the racket out of a big 4 players hand in a way other lesser top 10 players can.

There is a reason why tsonga knocked out Fed in 2011 Wimbledon, Novak vs. Wawrinka this year, etc., and it's not that they handle it poorly, but if a guy is constintently hitting a massive ball with relatively low UFE's then it is really hard to beat those guys. Far more upsets for all the top players come from this, even Rosol vs. Nadal 2012.

 

[Kieran]

So can you tell me how did Stan beat the brakes off your new 'beloved" at RG 2015.

Hey Push:

“At the French Open he (Novak) played too tentative, he wanted Stan (Wawrinka) to miss the balls, but you are not going to win a Grand Slam final by waiting for the other guy to miss.” - Boris Becker

link - http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/wimbledon-2015-final-brain-game-djokovic-federer

Meanwhile, Stan redlined for pretty much the entire match. Had Novak gone after the ball more, Stan still might have won, but it would have been a helluva lot more interesting final.

Don't agree with Boris : Nadal waited for Federer to miss in 2006, 2007, 2008..and it worked !! Nadal made him derailed but it was Federer who made the mistakes, Nadal had just to cut the flower ...this Nadal is a very clever player indeed !!

WTF? :cover

 

[Front242]

Usually the player who make more mistakes is the one who lose but sometimes the mistakes are 'forced'

Ok but Nadal knows how to bother Federer on his backhand till he makes the error !! Nalby also did it

Yep, and that's is a good example about what is a 'forced' error

Except that the stats will show a ton of Federer's errors these days are not on his backhand but his forehand. Routine shots into the net, botched volleys, and not just against Nadal. And many of those are far from forced. They're just poor execution as he's a step slower getting to balls and not in position to hit them cleanly.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

I agree with this, but it's not a novak thing. Big hitters, when they are playing out of their mind, for obvious reasons can upset the balance of the top players and do so more often than any other type of second tier player (hint soderling vs. nadal, delpo vs. fed, delpo vs. nadal, delpo vs. novak). The thing about really big hitters is they actually bring something to the table that goes beyond the skills of the big 4 (Usually I would say 3, but for these purposes, it's worth including Andy).

The thing about a guy like Ferrer is he can't do anything the big 4 can't do better. Tsonga hits a bigger serve and pure-power forehand than any of the big 4, but has weaknesses. Same with aspects of the game of Berdych, soderling, delpo, and even a guy like Isner. If they are playing their absolute best, and every low-percentage shot is working, then they can take the racket out of a big 4 players hand in a way other lesser top 10 players can.

There is a reason why tsonga knocked out Fed in 2011 Wimbledon, Novak vs. Wawrinka this year, etc., and it's not that they handle it poorly, but if a guy is constintently hitting a massive ball with relatively low UFE's then it is really hard to beat those guys. Far more upsets for all the top players come from this, even Rosol vs. Nadal 2012.

The thing that stands out to me is that Novak is basically immune to defeats to the big hitting players on lower bouncing surfaces. Since 2011 he only lost to Del Potro in the Bronze Medal Match at the Olympics. All other relevant losses have been on clay (Berdych: Rome 2013; Wawrinka: French Open 2015) or rather high bouncing hard courts (Isner: Indian Wells 2012 and Cincinnati 2013, Del Potro: Indian Wells 2013, Wawrinka: Australian Open 2014). The losses against Tsonga at Toronto last year and Querrey at Paris Bercy 2012 were under special circumstances, so I wouldn't read much into those.

Apart from some matches against Del Potro I can't even think of any matches against big hitters which were reasonably close on lower bouncing surfaces, whereas you can find multiple hard fought wins on tournaments with a high bounce. That's why my impression is that apart from JMDP (who plays with more margin for error than the other ones) players with that style are basically unable to consistently hit through a somewhat well playing Novak without a high bounce allowing them more time to line up their shots.

 

[Dhilip kumar]

Talking about Novak....another one that the way he plays, the way that he twists his legs and the ankles, the way that he moves his arms when he hit the ball, do you think that he is going to last too long playing that way? I know the yoga sessions is helping giving him to get that flexibility (the rubber man as Monfils) but it's a miracle that he doesn't get more injuries
If Rafa would recovery his total confidence then he would show one more time that it's not so difficult to beat Novak like he did in 2013. Look Wawrinka, he won RG for the first time thanks to the bad conditions of the best clay player and playing against the player who had more anxiety to win than anyone else. Wimbledon? who played well? Federer? sorry but he is not even the shadow that he was three years ego, he played pretty bad.
We'll see in Montreal, Rafa has a tough draw but his result will depend of him, his opponents? 2015 has been a very odd year, since the AO I haven't seen any of them playing so well, they were too inconsistent and Rafa lost matches that he never ever had to have lost

His style of play is a lot less demanding than Rafa's. And Nole has a lot more offensive shotmaking and a better serve and therefore he usually cuts through players a lot more efficiently than Rafa ever has and it's easy to see why he aged better. He always was going to.

Rafa can return to 2013 all he wants if Nole plays like he has this year. It won't matter.

So you are saying 2008, 2010 , 2013 or any stage of Rafa's career he would not be able to beat present day Djokovic. That's is really putting your admiration for this currently number one ranked tennis player. So can you tell me how did Stan beat the brakes off your new 'beloved" at RG 2015 but at the same time he is being touted by you as the invincible one.

Don't make this a big issue people people who watch tennis reualarly does know each player has an advantage in a particular type of court. Rafa- clay, Roger - grass, Novak- Australian open. since he is at the peak of his career he has been able to win in US and Wimbledon too with his strong defence. All champions did it at their peak. And just like Nole we have seen Roger struggle to win a french open title at his period of dominance. And the same happens with Djokovic now. And regarding Rafa vs Novak. Rafa has acheived great height at a lesser age. But he was strong at his home (french). Novak looks to be in great form. All champions had their time. And time ll tell who is the Greatest of all. And am counting on Federer

 

[Busted]

I think a better question would be - when is Nadal going to win another tournament on a surface other than clay?

 

[Kirijax]

I think a better question would be - when is Nadal going to win another tournament on a surface other than clay?

Seeing how he just won Stuttgart back in June, I'm sure it'll be sooner than later. He'll start playing the 250s more now I think.

 

[Denis]

^yup he has to do the raonic/berdych thing now and start playing Mickey Mouse indoor events in order to qualify for the wtf. I smell even more embarrassing losses coming up.

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, I don't think any of his losses are "embarrassing." It's normal that a veteran starts to show their age and suffer losses. Borg retired before he reached that stage, but Pete also showed great strains of physical wear and tear as the mileage ground him down, at a similar age to Nadal. Pete suffered some losses we could say were "embarrassing" but they're not really, since he was only showing natural signs of degrading physically, and mentally. The hope with Rafa is that he can rediscover "the calm" and that his forehand starts clicking again, etc, he might serve better than Tracy Austin used to, but that wouldn't be unexpected either...

 

[brokenshoelace]

In fairness, I don't think any of his losses are "embarrassing."

Losing to Fognini on clay kinda is.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^yup he has to do the raonic/berdych thing now and start playing Mickey Mouse indoor events in order to qualify for the wtf. I smell even more embarrassing losses coming up.

We have a year's worth of body of work to suggest that isn't exactly the balsiest prediction in the world.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^yup he has to do the raonic/berdych thing now and start playing Mickey Mouse indoor events in order to qualify for the wtf. I smell even more embarrassing losses coming up.

We have a year's worth of body of work to suggest that isn't exactly the balsiest prediction in the world.

well, losses and small tourneys may come... but he's 1,600 points away from having to worry about not making it to the wtf at the moment... with isner at the chase, so not much to be concerned about.

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, I don't think any of his losses are "embarrassing."

Losing to Fognini on clay kinda is.

No, but losing to him twice might be... :cover