I think there is one thing your leaving out that is a very big issue and I think the former Pres. will really pound on, and I will be the border crisis, and that is precisely what it is. That is one area where former Pres. has a huge advantage over the current occupant of the White House as the former basically got that under control and now it is absolutely, positively beyond any shadow of the doubt completely out of control and the worst it has ever been in the history of this nation by far. 2nd, I think the abortion issue is something that Democrat party will push and Biden will try to make a with it, but it is not going to be is big an issue now is people realize that it is not an absolute bar across the nation but, rather, something that is being decided state by state in the political arena. That is what it should be. That is because it never was enshrined in the Constitution and never should have been. If he really wanted that right to be in our Constitution, the best way to do so would be a constitutional amendment. We have had plenty of those over the years, but the political will to do that is lacking, so they hoped the courts will do it for them. It will not be that they could deal and it seems to me most places that even clamped down on a portion, except for the most extreme states, will have exceptions for incest and rape. Hence, it really will have more to do with people who want to use abortion as a form of birth control. I do not think that issue will be as big, this time around, as it was before United States Supreme Court ruled on the issue.
As for the cognitive issue, the Democrat party has been scrutinizing everything the former Pres. says is a way of trying to say that no one should complain about the obvious cognitive the client and physical to climb of the current occupant of the White House when the former Pres. occasionally slips up like he did with Pelosi and Haley on one occasion. Now they are up in arms about him referring to Obama in a comment about Putin. This is probably a clever way of Trump alluding to what many far right people who support him have been saying concerning how the former former Pres. is really pulling the strings of the current Pres. because he has some sort of influence being the Pres. Obama had Pres. Biden as his VP. I think that is a cute sign from the former Pres. to his followers that he gets it that people think that Obama is really still in the White House, even though Biden is technically there. I personally believe that is a bunch of garbage but I do know some people who think and they are serious when they tell me this. I have stopped arguing with them about that.
You put a lot of emphasis on the national economy, employment and whatnot. I certainly believe the former Pres. will have his work that out for him as to how things have gone these first 3 years of the Biden presidency, but there are things he can say to call some of that into question. To begin with, it does seem that the Federal Reserve very carefully negotiated this and a bit of luck was involved as well. Then again, sometimes that is what it takes. Inflation has had the middle and lower class is a lot harder than anyone in the political realm wishes to admit. The stock market is a different animal and it is back to growing, but then it was always going to get back on that upward trajectory after it got hit during the pandemic for obvious reasons, including supplies side economics, people getting out of work, people remoting, people quitting during the great resignation, etc. certainly inflation was given a bit of the push by some policies of the Biden restriction, particularly with respect to continuing to hand out money to people and attempting to cancel student loan debt. This is great politics to win election, but it was not a good move and inflation state hired for a long time and still is, when you get right down to it, in significant part because of these policies. It is stunning the unemployment rate has been dropping, but the American entrepreneurial spirit has more to do with that than anything in my view. People have figured out how the work around these difficulties. The great resignation lead to people opting not to come back into the work force and then those numbers no longer counted because they were no longer wanting in. There on the sidelines, some of them retired, living of pensions in 401(k) funds. People's homes astronomical he increased in value since the pandemic, and many solar homes and became instant millionaires. No longer people are moving all around the country to different areas with our lower tax burdens. A lot of people make a lot of money on their homes and that in turn feeds into an increase in the need for homes and cheaper homes, which in turn needs to developers having plenty to do.
This is getting too long, but I am really do not know what is going to happen other than I think it will be a close one if it ends up being Biden v. Trump, but I stand by my belief that Trump is probably the only Republican nominee who would lose to Biden. Yet, the GOP is all in with him and there is not much anybody can do about it. Even if he were convicted of a felony in a state court, it would not matter. Even if he were convicted of a felony in a federal court, it still would not matter because he surely would appeal it and this presumption of innocence would carry through the election day and then once he were in office, I am sure he would be the first Pres. to pardon himself. He would then have another ruling from the United States Supreme Court.
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I honestly think it's not going to be close this time. The momentum in the economy is too strong. I think consumer confidence will rise through out this year, and there won't be any appreciable deterioration in employment either. Biggest risk for the economy so far as I can see is in the commercial real estate space, and that'll take time to filter through to mainstreet. Couple that with Trump being a complete nutter who hasn't expanded his base, the abortion issue, and I think that if Biden can just not confirm the age issue he'll win going away. In fact the strategy of highlighting Biden's age contains a double edged consequence for Republicans... (1) all he has to do is minimise confirmation biases and (2) if Trump shows his age, or a noticeable deterioration in his own mental acuity it'll turbo boost the Biden campaign. Once Haley is gone, the spotlight will be completely focused on Trump. The spotlight. has always been on Biden, as the President, but once we get into the meat of the election season, that same scrutiny will turn on Trump. His desire to be in the spotlight is a pathology. I can't see how he won't expose himself. By bringing the age and dementia thing into focus he may just have screwed himself. That's what I'm betting on
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