I think Trump against Biden leads to another four years of Biden--and it will be the largest turnout of voters in history by a decent margin. This has more to do with the former president than anything else. Haley would beat Biden.
The 2020 Election had the highest voter turnout in the 21st C., 66.8%, which is really high for the US. And Trump was more popular then. Personally, I suspect that turnout will be lower, given disaffection with both presumptive nominees. But the last one had more to do with Trump than anything else, and this one will, most likely, too. Every election since 2016, IMO, has been some version of a refutation/affirmation of Trumpism.
I do agree with you that if somehow Nikki Haley became the nominee, she'd beat Biden. She believes it and is beating that drum pretty hard.
exactly the point I've repeatedly made. I've come to the conclusion that it's a necessary defeat for the GOP to reset itself
I think you could be right that the GOP would finally "reset" itself after a Trump defeat this year. He won't run again, and maybe, finally, the party finds its center and soul in a Trump-less environment?