US Politics Thread

[Kieran]

You already clarified your point. The only reason I restated it was that Kieran couldn't understand how miscarriages had entered the conversation. I'm sorry I reiterated something you had already gone on to elaborate upon.

Duh. I understood it…

 

[Moxie]

On Meet The Press this morning, they discussed results of a new poll of Iowa voters done with the Des Moines register & NBC. Trump still leading by miles, but Nicki Haley has gained ground, now tied overall with De Santis in this poll, both at 16% to Trump's 43%. Their #1 issue, by a lot, was "ability to beat Biden," i.e., electability.

You can watch the analysis of the poll here. (3-minute watch)

For Iowa Republicans, the most important presidential quality is the ability to beat Biden: Poll

NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press to detail the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.

www.nbcnews.com

One thing I will never get about the religious conservatives who vote for Trump, though, is highlighted in this stat: For those who listed that the candidate be a person of faith as their extremely important issue, which was 36% of those polled. In this poll, Trump got 48%, De Santis 21%, Haley 16%, Scott (who runs on his faith) 10%, Ramaswamy 2%.

Trump as a Person of Faith? He's been married 3 times, has cheated within his marriages, and was never and is not now a regular church-goer. He's changed parties, and his views on abortion, and he left the Presbyterian faith while in office to declare himself a "non-denominational Christian." Most voters in the US find Trump's cozying up to religion, particularly the evangelicals and pentecostals to be politically motivated. See this article from Christianity Today, (deemed to be "leaning right" on the internet.)

Trump Becomes the First President Since Eisenhower to Change Faiths in Office - Christianity Today

Like many Christians switching churches, he now identifies as nondenominational

www.christianitytoday.com

Interesting quote from that article (which is short):

"Most Americans don’t think Trump has strong religious beliefs, according to the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute poll. Roughly 40 percent say the president “is mostly using religion for political purposes.” White evangelicals who vote Republican see things differently: Fifty-nine percent say Trump has strong religious beliefs."

Which I guess just proves that people will believe what they want to?

 

[Moxie]

US off-year elections yesterday once again showed that voters are not inclined to put huge restrictions on abortion. In a specific referendum in Ohio, a conservative state, voters approved adding abortion rights to their state constitution. This nullifies a more restrictive measure put forward by their legislature, which was still in the courts.

In Kentucky, also a very "red" state, while abortion wasn't obviously on the ballot, the vote went for their incumbent Democratic governor, and against the Republican challenger who was clearly anti-choice. Kentucky already rejected a ballot measure last year that would have been restrictive on abortion.

In Virginia, Governor Youngkin lost both his legislative chambers when he banked on his conservative agenda on abortion and other cultural issues. He had previously had a divided chamber. He was hoping for a majority in both. Now he has neither.

Two or three things that are not working for the Republicans: a) their position on abortion, even if now, for example, they're trying to position themselves as the "reasonable" party on the issue. Voters are not buying that. They've lost the trust. b) Trying to hang Democrats to Biden, no matter how unpopular his numbers look. It's not sticking. c) Their position on cultural issues. Not as effective as they were hoping for.

It seems that Americans are a lot more libertarian than Republicans have been counting on.

 

[Federberg]

US off-year elections yesterday once again showed that voters are not inclined to put huge restrictions on abortion. In a specific referendum in Ohio, a conservative state, voters approved adding abortion rights to their state constitution. This nullifies a more restrictive measure put forward by their legislature, which was still in the courts.

In Kentucky, also a very "red" state, while abortion wasn't obviously on the ballot, the vote went for their incumbent Democratic governor, and against the Republican challenger who was clearly anti-choice. Kentucky already rejected a ballot measure last year that would have been restrictive on abortion.

In Virginia, Governor Youngkin lost both his legislative chambers when he banked on his conservative agenda on abortion and other cultural issues. He had previously had a divided chamber. He was hoping for a majority in both. Now he has neither.

Two or three things that are not working for the Republicans: a) their position on abortion, even if now, for example, they're trying to position themselves as the "reasonable" party on the issue. Voters are not buying that. They've lost the trust. b) Trying to hang Democrats to Biden, no matter how unpopular his numbers look. It's not sticking. c) Their position on cultural issues. Not as effective as they were hoping for.

It seems that Americans are a lot more libertarian than Republicans have been counting on.

the one concern is whether these Dem successes translate to Biden. At the moment it's hard to figure out if he's Jimmy Carter (our view of his Presidency is entirely more impressive now than it was at the time), or Obama (Romney was looking pretty good at this time in the cylce before Obama won his second term). Some of the polling was a bit disturbing for Biden, in that a lot of voters who voted for Dems still expressed a disapproval of Biden. I'm holding out hope for one crucial thing (two actually), Trump isn't adding voters, this is entirely about enthusiasm for Biden. Also when we get into the heart of the election Trump will draw attention to himself as usual, that's the thing that is fatal for him against Biden - he'll draw so much attention that folks will be more concerned about him than Biden, that's probably how he loses. It's a damn shame because Biden has actually done a surprisingly good job given the cards he's been dealt. He deserves an affirmative reason for voters to give him a second term!

 

[Moxie]

the one concern is whether these Dem successes translate to Biden. At the moment it's hard to figure out if he's Jimmy Carter (our view of his Presidency is entirely more impressive now than it was at the time), or Obama (Romney was looking pretty good at this time in the cylce before Obama won his second term). Some of the polling was a bit disturbing for Biden, in that a lot of voters who voted for Dems still expressed a disapproval of Biden. I'm holding out hope for one crucial thing (two actually), Trump isn't adding voters, this is entirely about enthusiasm for Biden. Also when we get into the heart of the election Trump will draw attention to himself as usual, that's the thing that is fatal for him against Biden - he'll draw so much attention that folks will be more concerned about him than Biden, that's probably how he loses. It's a damn shame because Biden has actually done a surprisingly good job given the cards he's been dealt. He deserves an affirmative reason for voters to give him a second term!

Of course, that's the big question. Biden polls consistently low, and seems resistant to doing better despite the good he's done. There is the concern about his age, which won't change. Surprisingly, the Teflon Don doesn't worry his fans in the same way, given that he's barely younger, and arguably much less physically fit, meaning over-weight, poor eating habits.

Several things that Biden will have going for him: One, as you mentioned, is that Trump will draw attention to himself, and it seems that the MAGA core may be shrinking. Based on results this week, and the approach in the debates last night, the abortion issue is killing the Republicans, esp. with younger voters, suburban women. There could well be abortion issues on the ballot next year, which will likely continue to draw out voters on that issue, which Biden would likely benefit from. Likewise, climate change is huge with younger voters, and the Democrats do much better there, too. Last night, the Republican hopefuls were quite hawkishly pro-Israel, almost to post-9/11 levels of anti-Islamaphobic, and younger voters don't track closely that way. The Republicans are the opposite on Ukraine, and, again, I don't think that speaks to the younger voters.

The Carter/Obama comparison is an interesting thought, one-term v. two-term, but I will quibble a bit here. Carter was a palate cleanser after Nixon, but he remained a Washington outsider, which always hurt him. The gas crisis and the Iran hostage crisis gave us Reagan. Obama was always a charismatic politician, despite being polarizing. The economy did well under Obama, after he inherited a sinking ship. And Romney is a milquetoast, at best. A lot of the thinking when we got Biden was that he'd save us from Trump, and then we'd move on in 2024. Except that Trump is back, and now we're looking at a re-run. I think there's a huge swath of voters who wish we were going to have 2 different candidates, but it doesn't look like we will.

 

[Federberg]

Of course, that's the big question. Biden polls consistently low, and seems resistant to doing better despite the good he's done. There is the concern about his age, which won't change. Surprisingly, the Teflon Don doesn't worry his fans in the same way, given that he's barely younger, and arguably much less physically fit, meaning over-weight, poor eating habits.

Several things that Biden will have going for him: One, as you mentioned, is that Trump will draw attention to himself, and it seems that the MAGA core may be shrinking. Based on results this week, and the approach in the debates last night, the abortion issue is killing the Republicans, esp. with younger voters, suburban women. There could well be abortion issues on the ballot next year, which will likely continue to draw out voters on that issue, which Biden would likely benefit from. Likewise, climate change is huge with younger voters, and the Democrats do much better there, too. Last night, the Republican hopefuls were quite hawkishly pro-Israel, almost to post-9/11 levels of anti-Islamaphobic, and younger voters don't track closely that way. The Republicans are the opposite on Ukraine, and, again, I don't think that speaks to the younger voters.

The Carter/Obama comparison is an interesting thought, one-term v. two-term, but I will quibble a bit here. Carter was a palate cleanser after Nixon, but he remained a Washington outsider, which always hurt him. The gas crisis and the Iran hostage crisis gave us Reagan. Obama was always a charismatic politician, despite being polarizing. The economy did well under Obama, after he inherited a sinking ship. And Romney is a milquetoast, at best. A lot of the thinking when we got Biden was that he'd save us from Trump, and then we'd move on in 2024. Except that Trump is back, and now we're looking at a re-run. I think there's a huge swath of voters who wish we were going to have 2 different candidates, but it doesn't look like we will.

Gas crisis and Iran hostage crisis ------->>>.Gas prices, withdrawal from Afghanistan, Israel/Hamas... it's not that far away. As for the rest... being an insider is possibly just as disfavoured now as being an outsider in the past was a disadvantage. History doesn't necessarily repeat but it can rhyme....

 

[Moxie]

Gas crisis and Iran hostage crisis ------->>>.Gas prices, withdrawal from Afghanistan, Israel/Hamas... it's not that far away. As for the rest... being an insider is possibly just as disfavoured now as being an outsider in the past was a disadvantage. History doesn't necessarily repeat but it can rhyme....

Sadly, this is a song the opposition can sing, though I'm not sure how Israel/Hamas reflects on Biden right now. Even though our gas prices have been holding steady, and are laughably low compared to much of the rest of the world. But groceries have gone up, and it's what people notice, compared to general health of the economy. Also, sorry...I don't mean that people voted against Carter because he was an outsider. I meant that he didn't get the kind of help he needed within the system because he was an outsider.

The price of groceries and the perception that Biden's age is a problem are his biggest stumbling blocks, IMO. Groceries aren't going down, and he's not getting younger. I like to hope that Democrats can get out the message that Biden really has been doing a good job, overall, and we're better off for it, but the other is real hope has to be that people are still willing to vote against Trump in big numbers.

 

[Federberg]

Sadly, this is a song the opposition can sing, though I'm not sure how Israel/Hamas reflects on Biden right now. Even though our gas prices have been holding steady, and are laughably low compared to much of the rest of the world. But groceries have gone up, and it's what people notice, compared to general health of the economy. Also, sorry...I don't mean that people voted against Carter because he was an outsider. I meant that he didn't get the kind of help he needed within the system because he was an outsider.

The price of groceries and the perception that Biden's age is a problem are his biggest stumbling blocks, IMO. Groceries aren't going down, and he's not getting younger. I like to hope that Democrats can get out the message that Biden really has been doing a good job, overall, and we're better off for it, but the other is real hope has to be that people are still willing to vote against Trump in big numbers.

there's a part of me that's been ok with Biden not promoting himself to date. But now's the time to start doing it. I just think the GOP would have developed counters to his propaganda if he was doing it all the time. Now he has to try to turn that around and build a case for the people.

Gas prices may have come down a bit, but there's serious upside risk. Imagine if Iran is attacked? Furthermore, central banks are signalling that rates are going to remain higher for longer. We have a generation of young people unable to buy homes with interest rates at these levels. You might as well call that the modern day gas crisis. Note that this is a problem that happens when the economy is too strong! As for Israel/Hamas... I worry about the blue wall, particularly Michigan. His stance might alienate some of his core voters there.

Having said all of that I still think that as of right now Trump is not front and centre. If it becomes Biden vs Trump, Trump will dominate the media. That is so powerfully in Biden's favour it's hard to overestimate the positive impact for him.

 

[nehmeth]

I won’t be here much if ever, but today I was wondering how tall DeSantis was. His face is so pinched and sour and he always looks short.

So I googled his height. The response made me laugh: With or without lifts?

 

[Kieran]

I won’t be here much if ever, but today I was wondering how tall DeSantis was. His face is so pinched and sour and he always looks short.

So I googled his height. The response made me laugh: With or without lifts?

Apparently he wears 3 inch heels so that has to be subtracted…

 

[Moxie]

there's a part of me that's been ok with Biden not promoting himself to date. But now's the time to start doing it. I just think the GOP would have developed counters to his propaganda if he was doing it all the time. Now he has to try to turn that around and build a case for the people.

Gas prices may have come down a bit, but there's serious upside risk. Imagine if Iran is attacked? Furthermore, central banks are signalling that rates are going to remain higher for longer. We have a generation of young people unable to buy homes with interest rates at these levels. You might as well call that the modern day gas crisis. Note that this is a problem that happens when the economy is too strong! As for Israel/Hamas... I worry about the blue wall, particularly Michigan. His stance might alienate some of his core voters there.

Having said all of that I still think that as of right now Trump is not front and centre. If it becomes Biden vs Trump, Trump will dominate the media. That is so powerfully in Biden's favour it's hard to overestimate the positive impact for him.

I was listening to my wnyc call-in show today (Brian Lehrer,) and a lot of interesting things came out. One is that young people don't hold the old views on Israel that Biden and much of the GOP do, and the US has, historically. So you're right...it will be an issue. Another is that young voters resent having Biden shoved down their throats. This is where 3rd party candidates could be a huge problem, some for both Biden and Trump.

It's worth remembering, though, that Biden has worked on forgiving college debt. This is the main reason that young people can't buy homes...not the interest rates.

There's a lot to chew over for the next year. If the economy improves markedly, it will help Biden, but US voters can be very narrowly centered, and if they're paying too much for eggs, they'll blame it on Biden. I think the 3rd party candidates are going to make it scary, though. They are my biggest worry.

 

[shawnbm]

Forgiving college debt--what a silly and overtly political position. I will wipe out your debt if you vote for me. Wonderful, but likely unconstitutional government infringement on private property and contractual rights. Israel and Hamas is tearing through the west right now, just as Hamas was hoping by starting the whole damned thing a month ago. None of this would be happening now but for that day planned for years by Hamas.

 

[Federberg]

The forgiving college debt thing is just horrific to me. If you want to effect a change, legislatively deal with the universities that have raised fees extortionately. Wiping off debt is such a cliched left wing solution, it's sickening. Not only does it not solve the problem it creates a moral hazard that in the longer term leads to even higher debt

 

[tented]

On Meet The Press this morning, they discussed results of a new poll of Iowa voters done with the Des Moines register & NBC. Trump still leading by miles, but Nicki Haley has gained ground, now tied overall with De Santis in this poll, both at 16% to Trump's 43%. Their #1 issue, by a lot, was "ability to beat Biden," i.e., electability.

You can watch the analysis of the poll here. (3-minute watch)

For Iowa Republicans, the most important presidential quality is the ability to beat Biden: Poll

NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press to detail the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.

www.nbcnews.com

One thing I will never get about the religious conservatives who vote for Trump, though, is highlighted in this stat: For those who listed that the candidate be a person of faith as their extremely important issue, which was 36% of those polled. In this poll, Trump got 48%, De Santis 21%, Haley 16%, Scott (who runs on his faith) 10%, Ramaswamy 2%.

Trump as a Person of Faith? He's been married 3 times, has cheated within his marriages, and was never and is not now a regular church-goer. He's changed parties, and his views on abortion, and he left the Presbyterian faith while in office to declare himself a "non-denominational Christian." Most voters in the US find Trump's cozying up to religion, particularly the evangelicals and pentecostals to be politically motivated. See this article from Christianity Today, (deemed to be "leaning right" on the internet.)

Trump Becomes the First President Since Eisenhower to Change Faiths in Office - Christianity Today

Like many Christians switching churches, he now identifies as nondenominational

www.christianitytoday.com

Interesting quote from that article (which is short):

"Most Americans don’t think Trump has strong religious beliefs, according to the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute poll. Roughly 40 percent say the president “is mostly using religion for political purposes.” White evangelicals who vote Republican see things differently: Fifty-nine percent say Trump has strong religious beliefs."

Which I guess just proves that people will believe what they want to?

This is all anyone needs to see to grasp Trump’s relationship with the Bible and religion:

 

[Kieran]

This is all anyone needs to see to grasp Trump’s relationship with the Bible and religion:

I’m always amazed at how politicians have to pretend to be Christian when they’re out on the stump..

 

[shawnbm]

Jesus wept. In Saint John's gospel and reflects much about Him.

 

[britbox]

Trump wrote in one of his books about having Eital Yardeni as a Kabbalah tutor. In which case, he'd have a solid understanding of the Bible, Zohar and likely Hebrew.

 

[Moxie]

Forgiving college debt--what a silly and overtly political position. I will wipe out your debt if you vote for me. Wonderful, but likely unconstitutional government infringement on private property and contractual rights.

Indeed. And not unlike the cynical Republican tactic of always promising tax cuts, no matter the debt situation.

The forgiving college debt thing is just horrific to me. If you want to effect a change, legislatively deal with the universities that have raised fees extortionately. Wiping off debt is such a cliched left wing solution, it's sickening. Not only does it not solve the problem it creates a moral hazard that in the longer term leads to even higher debt

I'm not sure that forgiving loans creates a "moral hazard" for most, as in, that debt means nothing, but I agree 100% that unless you effect real change at the level of the cost of higher education, you do nothing to solve the problem. Do we just forgive student loans forever?

Though, honestly, I don't know how you put the genie back in the bottle of tuitions at $65K+/year. Undergraduate. I could get into how Reagan pretty much started the whole thing, but it's water under the bridge. Universities competing for "star" academics with high salaries is in there, too. But it started with states cutting funding for in-state students, and grants getting harder to get, for low-income students.

My personal solution would include: that 2-year local colleges could be made free, paid for by the state and fed. And state colleges should get more support by intrastate taxes, which is one of the things that went awry. This should also be supported by Federal funds.

Also, a required national service for all 18-year-olds, which could function like a G.I. bill. Maybe they could pick a couple of years in the military, which already happens, for those without money or options. Or, as alternatives, what about a year in National Park Service, the Forest Service, etc., or local service at food banks, homeless shelters, hospitals? They could do intern work at local bureaucracies, like social security. They could get a stipend and housing, and credit towards university studies, like the GIs did, while assuaging the costs of other government programs, thus helping it pay for itself.

And you can't buy your way out of it. Or, if you can, then it's really expensive, and that the money goes directly to fund the college educations of people that don't opt out of public service.

I don't think the idea is that crazy.

 

[Kieran]

Forgiving student debt would seem to be unfair to the rest of the population, including former students who have already paid their debt, but most especially people who haven’t gone to uni and are stuck with the bill.

I mean, the uni still has to get paid, no?

 

[Kieran]

.

My personal solution would include: that 2-year local colleges could be made free, paid for by the state and fed. And state colleges should get more support by intrastate taxes, which is one of the things that went awry. This should also be supported by Federal funds.

So I never went to uni but I’d have to pay for others to go?