US Politics Thread

[Federberg]

Heh, heh - Moxie answered my post with a case of mistaken identity... so was reciprocating!

hahaha! got you

 

[Federberg]

All of Crimea doesn't have to be happy with Putin.... just more than those who or not. Rather like most places around the world. If I was a Russian, I'd be happy with him. Russia is in a far better state now than before he took charge...

That's arguable mate. On a macro level, Russia is fundamentally sounder than it used to be. But the average man on the street is still facing extraordinary challenges. Income inequality in Russia makes the US look like Sweden now. In order to secure his position Putin has allowed a few wealthy elites to accumulate vast wealth with next to no benefit for the average person (and he's enriched himself fantastically as well). There is very little innovation outside of the military industrial complex and the energy sector, which is surprising given the incredibly well educated pool of labour. Press freedom is virtually non existent, it truly is an authoritarian state. While the average Russian definitely feels a sense of pride in seeing Russia reclaim it's place amongst the great powers, the fact that there's very little dissent, or ability to communicate anything anti-establishment says a lot. It's rather ironic that the very freedoms that enable people to be critical of western governments, but sheds no light on Putin's administration, is used by some people to talk about how strong and loved Putin is. I think that's naive in the extreme personally.

For me, I take a more nuanced approach to Russia and Putin. I most certainly think he's a despot, but at the same time I have a lot of sympathy for Russia's geopolitical situation. There is simply no way the US would tolerate the sort of neighborhood encroachment that everyone expects Putin and Russia to endure. There is a huge amount of hypocrisy in the West, and I don't think they played fair when the wall came down. I like to think "do on to others as you would have them do on to you" is a reasonable guide to how nations should act. The asymmetry in the West's relationship with Russia is so blatant. Still, things would have been a lot better for the Russians if they had actively tried to modernise their economy rather than just try to get rich off oil! They may even have been more willing to fully integrate into the West under different circumstances, now the chance is gone

 

[britbox]

I don't think it's arguable to any extent that Russia is in a better place under Putin than the chaos that ensued under Yeltsin.

You basically had a drunkard (Yeltsin) who was a laughing stock on the world stage overseeing a complete rape of Russian resources by an oligarchy for self-gain. Putin purged or came to an agreement with those oligarchs... and you saw most of the major resources such as energy and banking come back under an umbrella of Kremlin control. Of course, you still have oligarchs... but it's on more of an acceptable contract where money filters back into the central coffers. The oligarchy didn't start with Putin "allowing" it - it started with Yeltsin on much less favourable terms to the Russian people.

Inequalities is a red herring for people on the street. Remember Thatcher's great speech on inequalities?

I agree on a lot of your other points.... diversification of the economy... not enough of it... but ironically, the sanctions placed on Russia will encourage it. Press freedom... limited - agreed.

The West made a catastrophic error during the Yeltsin years and during the early Putin years of trying to render the bear permanently lame rather than embracing a new relationship. Encircling Russia, expanding NATO, demonizing Russia.... it was a giant mistake IMO... and we're seeing the fallout now. You alluded to that point and I agree with it... but now Russia has made the Asian pivot and it's heading further and further into an axis with China.

 

[Federberg]

That wasn't what I meant by arguable. In any case I think I mentioned, the Russian economy is on a more sound footing now. What I find dubious is your assertion that if you were Russian you would be happy with him. The standard of living of the average Russian has not improved appreciably. You just don't hear about it. There is under-employment on a scale to make Trump supporters thank their luck stars

 

[britbox]

That wasn't what I meant by arguable. In any case I think I mentioned, the Russian economy is on a more sound footing now. What I find dubious is your assertion that if you were Russian you would be happy with him. The standard of living of the average Russian has not improved appreciably. You just don't hear about it. There is under-employment on a scale to make Trump supporters thank their luck stars

Based on the level of support for him within Russia... it's not even an assertion - it's fact.

 

[Federberg]

^I'm sure if you look at the level of support for North Korea's Kim Jong-un it would make Michelle Obama's polling look tepid. What of it? I find it amusing that you assign so much credibility to the "support" an authoritarian leader gets

 

[britbox]

^I'm sure if you look at the level of support for North Korea's Kim Jong-un it would make Michelle Obama's polling look tepid. What of it? I find it amusing that you assign so much credibility to the "support" an authoritarian leader gets

Even independent Western polls have put Putins approval over 60% at it's absolute lowest.... Russian pollsters generally give him 75-90%. If I take the former as the more reliable then it's still far higher than any western leader.

Slight difference with North Korea pal - most of them are behind a ringfence of any external media whatsoever and think North Korea won the world cup. Not a like for like comparison by any stretch...

 

[Federberg]

I would question those polls, but then I'm more of a sceptic. I very much doubt Russians in the hinterland with stagnant living standards and declining mortality are all that enthused, but that's just me

 

[britbox]

I would question those polls, but then I'm more of a sceptic. I very much doubt Russians in the hinterland with stagnant living standards and declining mortality are all that enthused, but that's just me

Fortunately for Putin, 75% of Russians live in urban areas.

 

[Federberg]

And unfortunately for Russia, apart from St Petersburg and Moscow the income disparity is "yuge!"

 

[britbox]

Good read for you here Fberg...

http://users.polisci.wisc.edu/gehlbach/documents/FGMR Putin.pdf

Personally, I think disputing Putin's popularity within Russia is a flawed argument, whatever you think of him.

 

[Federberg]

I'll read it later thanks.

Personally I think believing a former head of the KGB's popularity on its face, when he has created an authoritarian society where mafiosi have a lot of sway, and you have a history of communist eyes and ears watching you seems rather naive to me. But hey... we'll both believe or disbelieve what we want to right?

 

[britbox]

I'll read it later thanks.

Personally I think believing a former head of the KGB's popularity on its face, when he has created an authoritarian society where mafiosi have a lot of sway, and you have a history of communist eyes and ears watching you seems rather naive to me. But hey... we'll both believe or disbelieve what we want to right?

You might not like Putin, fair enough... and you can disbelieve the widespread evidence of his popularity within Russia as much as you like.

 

[Federberg]

You misunderstand me. I neither like nor dislike him. I'm just trying to view him as what he is. I have a great deal of sympathy with Russian foreign policy. I don't think they have much of a choice in terms of their strategic aims. Maybe one or two qualms about how he goes about it. But again, he doesn't really have much recourse

 

[britbox]

You misunderstand me. I neither like nor dislike him. I'm just trying to view him as what he is. I have a great deal of sympathy with Russian foreign policy. I don't think they have much of a choice in terms of their strategic aims. Maybe one or two qualms about how he goes about it. But again, he doesn't really have much recourse

My argument was based on your skepticism of his popularity within Russia itself... which appears to be widely acknowledged even among his most bitter opponents.

 

[Billie]

Wait, they didn't vote him in. He marched in with an army. You really OK with that? And Putin has manipulated his "elected" status, putting a puppet in for his interim. Also he's a thin-skinned, barely-veiled brown shirt. I'm surprised that none of that disturbs you.

They did vote to go back to Russia, by a majority. The army was already there. Talk about puppets, in Ukraine, a coup with Nazi tendencies towards Russians. You don't have a problem with that? They can just say: you are not Russians, you can't speak Russian, you are not as equal as us? I know how I felt when that was the choice presented to me. How would you feel if you were cut off from the rest of your American brothers and sisters?

 

[Billie]

Based on the level of support for him within Russia... it's not even an assertion - it's fact.

There are lots of countries who support and like Putin, not just Russia and Russians. What he found of his country when he took the reins, and all of the troubles they surround him with, the sanctions, I really don't know who could have done a better job in reviving that country. It could always be better just like in any country, but people support him for a reason.

You know it's funny how all the Russian media are biased and there is no freedom, but is the Western media any better? At least he never supported extremists and Nazi tendencies and I gather he never will, so that is a good thing in my books.

 

[Federberg]

Is it possible that the poll margins are widening to such an extent now that a Brexit type surprise is getting less and less likely? I'm hearing that HRC is now starting to eye up Texas. Texas!!!!? Wtf!! If that's the case this could be a blow out on a Reagan like scale. Even Trump won't be able to whine about rigging then surely? Say it's so, pleaaaaaaase.. say it's so

 

[Moxie]

Is it possible that the poll margins are widening to such an extent now that a Brexit type surprise is getting less and less likely? I'm hearing that HRC is now starting to eye up Texas. Texas!!!!? Wtf!! If that's the case this could be a blow out on a Reagan like scale. Even Trump won't be able to whine about rigging then surely? Say it's so, pleaaaaaaase.. say it's so

Clinton is spending $ in TX. Here is Nate Silver's electoral map, and he's been the best at predicting the last 2 election cycles:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The question is if it will be enough of a mandate to squelch notions of "rigging," (which is ludicrous, btw.) At this point, Trump appears to be making no attempt at reaching out to undecided voters, only to shoring up his base. My mother, ever the Oracle, says that he's priming them for his Media empire, TrumpTV in conjunction with Breibart, or whatever, post-defeat. Mark her words.

If anything, disenfranchisement is more likely to happen to minority voters, since this is our 1st presidential election since the Voting Rights Act was essentially neutered by the Supreme Court in 2013. Trump is using racially-coded language to stir people up to monitor the polls on a vigilante basis, and some of his people are taking this to heart. They really can't, though, and any attempt would be a federal offense. I hope that our election day is peaceful, as so the transition.

 

[Federberg]

^yup I go to Nate Silver's website all the time. Thoughts on the final debate? All I'm hearing here is he refused to say that he would accept the result. Even undecideds have to question the lack of patriotism and the attack on core American principles surely?