US Open F: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

[Front242]

I don't think Stan ever had a great serve but agree with your post otherwise. He's always had a relatively average first serve % and throws in quite a few double faults. Not much better than Dimitrov in the service department imo.

 

[DarthFed]

Just watched extended highlights, and it reminded me of a lot of big matches Nole lost, where the opponent just wouldn't wilt under that defensive onslaught, and Nole eventually ran out of clues on how to win it, bar pulling a dodgy MTO, which thankfully didn't upset Stan enough for him to drop serve, which was its intended purpose. Nole has been making hay against players who are either in decline, or else players who are never going to make the grade, and this has caused an inflated reckoning on his share price, imo. He's still a great player, still occasionally brittle if they stand up to him, but I'm glad Stan won this one because of the way he won, and also because Nole's draw - beating JJ, MIA and AWOL - was such a boon to him.

Stan looked swaggering and hitting one-handed backhands like they were back in fashion. He is a big match player - now. He wasn't always, and he's not consistent at it, but that's 3 seasons in a row he's won a major, and it's 11 finals in a row he's won, which is great for him, and the game.

Oh, and isn't his girlfriend gorgeous! :basiate

You make it sound like Nole is just a good defensive player. He has much more offensive shotmaking than a certain player I don't care for, a certain player who is noted for being the best defensive player of all time. Nole's stock price is not inflated, most still have him behind Pete and Nadal despite the fact he won the Nole slam (Pete was garbage on clay) and has been a dominant #1 for a long time now (something Rafa never was). Rafa wasn't on the decline until mid-2014, which is 3 years after Djokovic usurped him as the best player in the world.

I think we can almost grade different eras in the Open era, given how different they are. This homogenised era is a lot different culturally to the fast-paced, knife-in-the-dark period Pete dominated. Pete's period of multi-surface, multi-speed tennis is different to the 70's, where there were slams on two different clay courts, and all the grass courts played differently.

Novak is obviously more than just a bloke who skates across the baseline getting the ball back. He has a great serve too. But he's always been the player in the Big 3 who'd be most likely to defer to strong opposition, or certain conditions in the crowd. Apart, obviously, from Wodger when he faces young Ralph.

And he seemed more like the Nole who lost the USO finals in 2012, than he was the dominant bloke who clouted an ancient Federer a few times, albeit in long struggles against the old geezer, who doubtless wondered when this youngster would allow an old codger to go to bed.

I don't think Nole defers to strong opposition. On paper it goes without saying that facing Rafa, Roger, and even Murray in slam finals is much tougher than facing Stan. But the Stan we've seen in slam finals? That's where "on paper" can be misleading. Nole is a combined 11-7 in finals vs. Roger, Rafa, and Murray but 0-2 vs. Stan and that doesn't count the AO QF Stan won in 2014, a place where the other 3 can't dream of beating Novak. Stan's eyes light up in these big matches and I'm sure Nole would rather see ANYONE else in a major at this point. I don't think you can compare this to 2012, a matchup with Stan blasting everything in sight is way different than the match with Murray in 2012.

 

[lob]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

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[lob]

I meant an old Roger is not easy to beat in a wimby final. Only a prime Nadal did it before 2014. Ask Cilic.

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[Kieran]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

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Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

 

[Backhand_DTL]

You make it sound like Nole is just a good defensive player. He has much more offensive shotmaking than a certain player I don't care for, a certain player who is noted for being the best defensive player of all time. Nole's stock price is not inflated, most still have him behind Pete and Nadal despite the fact he won the Nole slam (Pete was garbage on clay) and has been a dominant #1 for a long time now (something Rafa never was). Rafa wasn't on the decline until mid-2014, which is 3 years after Djokovic usurped him as the best player in the world.

I think we can almost grade different eras in the Open era, given how different they are. This homogenised era is a lot different culturally to the fast-paced, knife-in-the-dark period Pete dominated. Pete's period of multi-surface, multi-speed tennis is different to the 70's, where there were slams on two different clay courts, and all the grass courts played differently.

Novak is obviously more than just a bloke who skates across the baseline getting the ball back. He has a great serve too. But he's always been the player in the Big 3 who'd be most likely to defer to strong opposition, or certain conditions in the crowd. Apart, obviously, from Wodger when he faces young Ralph.

And he seemed more like the Nole who lost the USO finals in 2012, than he was the dominant bloke who clouted an ancient Federer a few times, albeit in long struggles against the old geezer, who doubtless wondered when this youngster would allow an old codger to go to bed.

I don't think Nole defers to strong opposition. On paper it goes without saying that facing Rafa, Roger, and even Murray in slam finals is much tougher than facing Stan. But the Stan we've seen in slam finals? That's where "on paper" can be misleading. Nole is a combined 11-7 in finals vs. Roger, Rafa, and Murray but 0-2 vs. Stan and that doesn't count the AO QF Stan won in 2014, a place where the other 3 can't dream of beating Novak. Stan's eyes light up in these big matches and I'm sure Nole would rather see ANYONE else in a major at this point. I don't think you can compare this to 2012, a matchup with Stan blasting everything in sight is way different than the match with Murray in 2012.

I think what makes Stan at his best such a tough matchup for Novak is that Novak playing solid kind of seems to play Stan into form during a match and he starts to make a lot of seemingly low percentage shots at some point, while it usually wears his opponents down and the gamestyle that disrupts Stan (changes of pace and spin, short slices, attacking the net early in the rally) doesn't come natural to Novak at all so it's difficult for him to suddenly execute it on a high level when he is already under pressure and Stan reached the zone where he is dangerous from basically any place of the court.

When both play at or close to their peak Novak would probably beat Stan on grass and hard court and it would be 50/50 on clay in my opinion but an above average level with a few dips like yesterday that would be enough to beat most other players even at their peak basically puts the result in Stan's hands.

 

[Riotbeard]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

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Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I would say there is a truth in the middle of both sides. At times, Novak has definitely capitulated to strong competition, but there are times when he really hasn't. Especially 2011, there are countless examples of Novak playing tough opponents playing well, even their best tennis and winning. There are more recent examples, but I can also think of a lot of times when Novak has not played well in the face of a great opponent..

I would say Sunday was mostly up to Stan, but the facts are also clear that Novak hasn't been the best version of himself since the F.O., and Novak didn't get much of an opportunity to really play into form at this tournament. That being said Novak rose to the occasion and played much better than I would have expected. Stan just played great, but I do think Novak had opportunities to win this, especially in the second set. Stan beat an opponent playing close to his best.

In 2015-2016, Novak has weathered mid-match storms against inspired opponents (a couple of finals against Andy come to mind), but he has only had two opportunities in finals to face a guy who has the potential to blow him off the court, and in both cases, it happened.

 

[DarthFed]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

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Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I always get a kick out of you mentioning the 2012 matches and then passing over the 2013 USO final which was maybe the worst of all of them. :snicker

Nole definitely had some big match issues for a few years after 2011. He lost finals and semis where he was a clear favorite. But starting with the 2014 Wimbledon final he has turned it around and has gone 6-2 since then with both losses to an on fire Wawrinka. I think Nole had a lot more to regret in the 2015 RG final, his serve was really bad and he was passive from the baseline. Yesterday I thought he played better, he was hitting aggressive but Stan was playing the best defense I've seen him play and kept many points alive that he usually never would have.

 

[Kieran]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

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Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I always get a kick out of you mentioning the 2012 matches and then passing over the 2013 USO final which was maybe the worst of all of them. :snicker

Nole definitely had some big match issues for a few years after 2011. He lost finals and semis where he was a clear favorite. But starting with the 2014 Wimbledon final he has turned it around and has gone 6-2 since then with both losses to an on fire Wawrinka. I think Nole had a lot more to regret in the 2015 RG final, his serve was really bad and he was passive from the baseline. Yesterday I thought he played better, he was hitting aggressive but Stan was playing the best defense I've seen him play and kept many points alive that he usually never would have.

He's gone 6-2 since then because he hasn't faced any great players playing peak tennis. Rafa dispatched him in 4 in Paris in 2014, playing poorly. Roger ran him to the edge at Wimbledon, even though Roger's a long time since his best. Novak has been the, but it kinda galled me watching him struggle against the ancient Federer and people were acting as if he was beating a Federer at his peak. Schitt, Federer got plenty of chops outta Novak the last few years anyway.

I agree about the FO in 2015. Novak began that - similarly to yesterday - in control - but he stood back a bit and allowed Stan back in. Yesterday Stan just ripped it from him, with aggression and great swagger...

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak defers to no one after 2011. He won 2 Wimbledons against Roger, even an old Roger. A USO and a AO against Rafa. Straight-setted a defending champion Rafa at RG.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I always get a kick out of you mentioning the 2012 matches and then passing over the 2013 USO final which was maybe the worst of all of them. :snicker

Nole definitely had some big match issues for a few years after 2011. He lost finals and semis where he was a clear favorite. But starting with the 2014 Wimbledon final he has turned it around and has gone 6-2 since then with both losses to an on fire Wawrinka. I think Nole had a lot more to regret in the 2015 RG final, his serve was really bad and he was passive from the baseline. Yesterday I thought he played better, he was hitting aggressive but Stan was playing the best defense I've seen him play and kept many points alive that he usually never would have.

One reason I feel that Stan has so much success against Novak is that Stan hits a flatter ball that stays low.. Stan's balls puts so much pressure on Novak and Novak has no answer for Stan's down the line backhand. During rallies, Stan keeps the ball in the center of the court and deep. Its the way to play against Novak who relentlessly takes advantage of someone like Rafa who thinks he can create angles vs Novak which is almost impossible because of Novak's length and reach. I mentioned several times during the match chat yesterday(again brilliantly hosted by KS:clap) Stan forces Novak to create his own angles. What this means is Novak is probably the most accurate ball striker besides a prime Federer in history. IF you give Novak a target, he will most likely hit it because he is very comfortable making adjustments on the run. However, If you force him to create his own angles especially on the forehand, the UFEs ratio is raised tremendously. Rafa and his team need to review Stan's victory over Novak because its the perfect strategy to slay the Serbian however Rafa's inability to return Novak's serve is a huge liability. (there is no need to mention Rafa's WTA serve because it is just like Geometry , its a Given and its very bad)

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, I hear what you are saying about Novak, but I think that is a variation on greatness: the ability to consistently play just well enough to beat the competition, whether that competition is peak Rafa in 2011 or the weakish field today.

A few older posts...

The problem is, all these players have to be good to be ranked in the top 100, but it's amazing how they forget what the HELL they're doing when it gets to the crunch! Sometimes it happens with a lead, other times while behind and they totally disappear! It's just frustrating to see world class athletes look so bad at times; Monfils a case in point! :nono

Monfils is a particularly disapppointing character, in the annals of under-achievers--along with Gulbis, Nalbandian, Safin, etc. But again, ALL players stumble, have weaknesses, Kryptonite. You act as if every player is a Monfils or Nalbandian.

Clearly, part of the reason Djokovic has a "so-so" GS finals record is that he more often than not will start slow. While he has won 5 slams after losing the 1st set, it is also a big reason on why he has 9 losses.

Good research. I think another causative factor in his results is that he has a very high "floor." Novak rarely, if ever, plays terribly; even when he's off, he's better than all but a dozen or so players. When he's on, he's good enough to challenge anyone, even if he doesn't seem overwhelming like peak Rafa or peak Federer. As I said to Kieran above, it is another variation of greatness.

I think we can almost grade different eras in the Open era, given how different they are. This homogenised era is a lot different culturally to the fast-paced, knife-in-the-dark period Pete dominated. Pete's period of multi-surface, multi-speed tennis is different to the 70's, where there were slams on two different clay courts, and all the grass courts played differently.

Novak is obviously more than just a bloke who skates across the baseline getting the ball back. He has a great serve too. But he's always been the player in the Big 3 who'd be most likely to defer to strong opposition, or certain conditions in the crowd. Apart, obviously, from Wodger when he faces young Ralph.

And he seemed more like the Nole who lost the USO finals in 2012, than he was the dominant bloke who clouted an ancient Federer a few times, albeit in long struggles against the old geezer, who doubtless wondered when this youngster would allow an old codger to go to bed.

Good stuff, Kieran. It really explains why a player like Andy Murray is far more consistent in making the second week of Slams than a better player like Sampras was. Pete lost the US Open in the 4R twice in his prime--there really is no equivalent to that today, among the Big Three or even Andy.

Court homogenization shows up in the record not only in more consistent Slam results from the top players, but also in the number of Masters won. Not to take anything away from Novak, but his Masters record is partially due to both the best-of-three format, but also homogenization. It also seems that Masters are more valued today than they were in the 90s. Look at Pete's record and how many he skipped--mainly clay. Maybe this is also a factor of the best-of-five, that players were more prone to skip out because of the sheer brutality of the schedule.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

big stan on 3 majors..who'd have thunk it.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I always get a kick out of you mentioning the 2012 matches and then passing over the 2013 USO final which was maybe the worst of all of them. :snicker

Nole definitely had some big match issues for a few years after 2011. He lost finals and semis where he was a clear favorite. But starting with the 2014 Wimbledon final he has turned it around and has gone 6-2 since then with both losses to an on fire Wawrinka. I think Nole had a lot more to regret in the 2015 RG final, his serve was really bad and he was passive from the baseline. Yesterday I thought he played better, he was hitting aggressive but Stan was playing the best defense I've seen him play and kept many points alive that he usually never would have.

One reason I feel that Stan has so much success against Novak is that Stan hits a flatter ball that stays low.. Stan's balls puts so much pressure on Novak and Novak has no answer for Stan's down the line backhand. During rallies, Stan keeps the ball in the center of the court and deep. Its the way to play against Novak who relentlessly takes advantage of someone like Rafa who thinks he can create angles vs Novak which is almost impossible because of Novak's length and reach. I mentioned several times during the match chat yesterday(again brilliantly hosted by KS:clap) Stan forces Novak to create his own angles. What this means is Novak is probably the most accurate ball striker besides a prime Federer in history. IF you give Novak a target, he will most likely hit it because he is very comfortable making adjustments on the run. However, If you force him to create his own angles especially on the forehand, the UFEs ratio is raised tremendously. Rafa and his team need to review Stan's victory over Novak because its the perfect strategy to slay the Serbian however Rafa's inability to return Novak's serve is a huge liability. (there is no need to mention Rafa's WTA serve because it is just like Geometry , its a Given and its very bad)

Playing heavy shots or off pace balls down the middle before going for an angle or a big shot close to the line is certainly an effective strategy against Novak which Stan uses quite well.

But even with Stan playing much closer to his best than Novak he won just a single point more (I think he even was 7 points down after winning the third set) and if I remember correctly outside of the six games in which he managed to break Stan didn't create any further break points while Novak had break points in something like 10-12 different games but just managed to break three times so a single big point turning out the other way could have lead to a very different result.

That's why although Stan was certainly playing better than Novak tactically it's more the mentality which made the difference as even staying in his comfort zone Novak was able to create a lot of chances but squandered many of those by not making makeable returns (despite returning quite well overall) and missing ground strokes in favourable positions, while only a few break points were saved by Stan playing simply too good. So in the end in my opinion Novak's loss is more down to his poor execution when it mattered than him not employing the best possible game plan or Stan using a perfect strategy, although those things certainly contributed to the result as well.

 

[lob]

Still haven't seen the entire match. But Stan did this in the AO14 final too. He was down 0-40 to Nadal at the business end of the first set and squeaked out the game. The guy is slightly mental. Not sure how his mind functions.

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[Carol]

Bah! but Stan lost the next day....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAais-VZEQE#action=share

 

[DarthFed]

Bejaypurs! He dropped a calf in the Wimbledon semi in 2012, rolling over like a Dulux puppy, then followed it with a dereliction of duty in the USO final. In 2013, he took one look at the crowd and deferred to Andy on his historic day, a match Djoker fans love to yawn away by saying he was "tired", po' diddums. Nole had a reputation for brittleness, this much is a matter of record. In 2011, no. But after the Oz final, he was more like his old self. For a while. Until the field declined, then he had another great run at it...

I always get a kick out of you mentioning the 2012 matches and then passing over the 2013 USO final which was maybe the worst of all of them. :snicker

Nole definitely had some big match issues for a few years after 2011. He lost finals and semis where he was a clear favorite. But starting with the 2014 Wimbledon final he has turned it around and has gone 6-2 since then with both losses to an on fire Wawrinka. I think Nole had a lot more to regret in the 2015 RG final, his serve was really bad and he was passive from the baseline. Yesterday I thought he played better, he was hitting aggressive but Stan was playing the best defense I've seen him play and kept many points alive that he usually never would have.

He's gone 6-2 since then because he hasn't faced any great players playing peak tennis. Rafa dispatched him in 4 in Paris in 2014, playing poorly. Roger ran him to the edge at Wimbledon, even though Roger's a long time since his best. Novak has been the, but it kinda galled me watching him struggle against the ancient Federer and people were acting as if he was beating a Federer at his peak. Schitt, Federer got plenty of chops outta Novak the last few years anyway.

I agree about the FO in 2015. Novak began that - similarly to yesterday - in control - but he stood back a bit and allowed Stan back in. Yesterday Stan just ripped it from him, with aggression and great swagger...

Roger was damn good for his current washed up standards in the 2014 final. Stats don't tell everything but the stats in that match were insane from both players. It was his best performance in a major final IMO and he said as much at the time. 6-2 is still impressive given the opposition. Playing a great player in peak form usually means you lose otherwise their form is being overrated to begin with.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

big stan on 3 majors..who'd have thunk it.

Imagine him with a career slam...Now that would make it almost impossible to find a place for him in the history of top players. Just 4 slams , one Masters 1000 (maybe he adds another). But where would you place him if he had the career slam, everything else staying just about the same? Tough call I think...