US Open F: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

Who wins?

  • Wawrinka in straights

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Djokovic by walkover

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wawrinka by walkover

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    15
  • Poll closed .

rafanoy1992

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the AntiPusher said:
Kieran said:
Novak's now gone to 12-9 in GS finals. Not a great ratio, to be fair...

Rafa is 14-6 or 14-7====..what's Rogers

Federer: 17-10 (63%)
Nadal: 14-6 (70%)
Djokovic: 12-9 (57%)
Murray: 3-8 (27%)
Wawrinka: 3-0 (100%)

Other than Wawrinka's record, Nadal has the highest ratio out of these players.

I did some research for myself about The Big Four's record in GS finals when losing and winning the first set:

Federer: 13-3 (81%) when winning the 1st set
4-7 (36%) when losing the 1st set
Nadal: 11-1 (91.6%) when winning the 1st set
3-5 (37.1%) when losing the 1st set
Djokovic: 7-3 (70%) when winning the 1st set
5-6 (45%) when losing the 1st set
Murray: 3-2 (60%) when winning the 1st set
0-6 (0%) when losing the 1st set

By looking at the numbers: Nadal is the best at winning a major after leading 1 sets to love. Meanwhile, Djokovic is the best player at winning a major after losing the 1st set.

What's so interesting about Djokovic GS Finals record is that he has played more GS finals matches in which he lost the 1st set than he wins the first set. What's so fascinating about this even more is that before 2015, he had 10 matches in which he lost the 1st set (4-6) and 4 matches in which he won the 1st set (3-1).

Clearly, part of the reason Djokovic has a "so-so" GS finals record is that he more often than not will start slow. While he has won 5 slams after losing the 1st set, it is also a big reason on why he has 9 losses.
 

the AntiPusher

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rafanoy1992 said:
the AntiPusher said:
Kieran said:
Novak's now gone to 12-9 in GS finals. Not a great ratio, to be fair...

Rafa is 14-6 or 14-7====..what's Rogers

Federer: 17-10 (63%)
Nadal: 14-6 (70%)
Djokovic: 12-9 (57%)
Murray: 3-8 (27%)
Wawrinka: 3-0 (100%)

Other than Wawrinka's record, Nadal has the highest ratio out of these players.

I did some research for myself about The Big Four's record in GS finals when losing and winning the first set:

Federer: 13-3 (81%) when winning the 1st set
4-7 (36%) when losing the 1st set
Nadal: 11-1 (91.6%) when winning the 1st set
3-5 (37.1%) when losing the 1st set
Djokovic: 7-3 (70%) when winning the 1st set
5-6 (45%) when losing the 1st set
Murray: 3-2 (60%) when winning the 1st set
0-6 (0%) when losing the 1st set

By looking at the numbers: Nadal is the best at winning a major after leading 1 sets to love. Meanwhile, Djokovic is the best player at winning a major after losing the 1st set.

What's so interesting about Djokovic GS Finals record is that he has played more GS finals matches in which he lost the 1st set than he wins the first set. What's so fascinating about this even more is that before 2015, he had 10 matches in which he lost the 1st set (4-6) and 4 matches in which he won the 1st set (3-1).

Clearly, part of the reason Djokovic has a "so-so" GS finals record is that he more often than not will start slow. While he has won 5 slams after losing the 1st set, it is also a big reason on why he has 9 losses.

Excellent work..Rafanoy:clap:clap
 

Backhand_DTL

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rafanoy1992 said:
Congratulations to Stan Wawrinka! He once again proved that he is a nemesis to Djokovic (at slams) and when he is ON, he is very tough to beat at a Slam.

As for Djokovic, all the physical nagging injuries finally caught up to him at the final. Also, he became Federer at this year's US Open final with an abysmal 3 for 17 (18%) on break points conversion. Finally, he only served 51% for the whole match so there was something wrong with his shoulder.
Yes, I think especially the first serve percentage which is abysmal for his precision based style of serving, made it fairly obvious that he wasn't ready to play at his top level yet. It's hard to tell if this was the result of something being wrong right now or his problems before and during the tournament negatively affected practicing the serve or forced him to change his service motion in a way where he isn't comfortable with it at the moment. But this tournament overall was probably the worst he served since 2010.

The other problems Novak had in this match are probably more related to his confidence not being that high after his troubles since Roland Garros. For example in my opinion his ground strokes lacked a bit of pace, which combined with Stan's weight of shot making it tough for Novak to compensate for it by taking the ball early, resulted in him barely being able to hit winners from the baseline. With Stan playing as well from the ground as he did it demanded Novak to play with great accuracy and placement to stay ahead in rallies as Stan was able to put him on the defence as soon as Novak didn't find a good enough depth or angle. Also he seemed quite indecisive when he tried to attack with the forehand especially from the middle or his forehand corner and made many crucial unforced errors on those shots.

In recent years I don't think I have seen a hard court match where Novak, apart from some missed second serve returns on break points, returned as well as he did yesterday but was unable to really capitalize on the many neutral rallies he forced his opponent into which shows the extremely high level of Stan's baseline game in this match.

Mentally my impression was that Stan sensed Novak's confidence wasn't that great after Novak failed to get the double break in the sixth and eighth games of the first set and lost his serve on a double fault for 5:4 and exuded supreme confidence himself since the middle of the second set after he saw Novak despite being a set up still being shaky by losing his serve because of some really weak serving including two double faults and being unable to break straight back despite having 0:40 in the following game. On the contrary Novak's inability to win easy points on serve at Deuce and when being break point down and to play the right shots when break point up, where he really had some terrible misses on easy forehands and with returns on second serves seemed to started to weigh on him quite early, which resulted in Stan winning nearly every big point and close game.

Especially in the crucial third set in my opinion Novak was the better player (had a break point in at least three and multiple deuces in at least four of Stan's service games) but was undone by his inferior confidence and mentality on the day. So in some ways this really seemed like an exact reverse of last year's final against Roger.

Nevertheless it was quite a good match, certainly the best Grand Slam final of the year, and during the trophy ceremony Novak genuinely gave the impression that apart from his play on most of the important points he was at peace with his performance so he probably felt like he more or less got the most out of what he had in this match and tournament and this won't be a defeat that's extremely hard to take for him.
 

isabelle

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Stan did it again, he made me laught with his incredible mental, I didn't expect him to beat Nole but I'm not disapppointed at all by this result, I enjoyed this USO
 

kskate2

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Carol35 said:
GameSetAndMath said:
kskate2 said:
You are allowed several toilet breaks throughout a 5 setter. A shower is a diff story.

...... and nobody can say for sure that he actually took a shower. It is just a rumor.

It wasn't a rumor, it was a reality and during his last match in the USO he took another toilet break and his coach was with him :cover

How do you know his coach was with him on the toilet break? Where are you getting this information? The players are escorted to the locker room by tournament staff for toilet breaks so no one can talk to them during MTO's or toilet breaks.
 

Carol

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kskate2 said:
Carol35 said:
GameSetAndMath said:
...... and nobody can say for sure that he actually took a shower. It is just a rumor.

It wasn't a rumor, it was a reality and during his last match in the USO he took another toilet break and his coach was with him :cover

How do you know his coach was with him on the toilet break? Where are you getting this information? The players are escorted to the locker room by tournament staff for toilet breaks so no one can talk to them during MTO's or toilet breaks.

Because they saw him running to the toilet behind Nishi, word!
I think there are many irregulations in the last time, many MTO (in the wrong time) toilet breaks and showers which they should put more attention but I see they don't who knows why........:s
 

Front242

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It's clearly hor$e$h1t. There's no chance a player would be allowed to go to the toilet with their coach given they could be assisting with doping, etc, not to mention just basically coaching. It won't happen, ever.
 

Kieran

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Just watched extended highlights, and it reminded me of a lot of big matches Nole lost, where the opponent just wouldn't wilt under that defensive onslaught, and Nole eventually ran out of clues on how to win it, bar pulling a dodgy MTO, which thankfully didn't upset Stan enough for him to drop serve, which was its intended purpose. Nole has been making hay against players who are either in decline, or else players who are never going to make the grade, and this has caused an inflated reckoning on his share price, imo. He's still a great player, still occasionally brittle if they stand up to him, but I'm glad Stan won this one because of the way he won, and also because Nole's draw - beating JJ, MIA and AWOL - was such a boon to him.

Stan looked swaggering and hitting one-handed backhands like they were back in fashion. He is a big match player - now. He wasn't always, and he's not consistent at it, but that's 3 seasons in a row he's won a major, and it's 11 finals in a row he's won, which is great for him, and the game.

Oh, and isn't his girlfriend gorgeous! :basiate
 

shawnbm

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As to this US Open final, it was a quality match for 90% of it. There were some wonderful rallies and shotmaking displays by both. Stanislas has demonstrated that when he awaits someone in a final of a major (or anywhere else for that matter), he can and will beat anyone across the net in many cases. He has that self-belief and stamina to continue to hit and wallop the ball for hours. His defense was stellar and his bludgeoning shots kept Novak pinned too many feet behind the baseline for too much of the match. Furthermore, he failed to hit the up the T first service to the ad court all night long!! I counted fifteen missed first serves alone and I did not see all of the match!! IF HE HAD THAT SERVICE WORKING, it would have been ugly. He needs to work on that service. In fact, I shall have to check the stats, as I think he could improve on first service and that is a scary thing. You could see years ago that Stanislas had the goods, not he has the mind and he is winning. Good on him! Roger was 17-7 (70% like Rafa is now) going into 2014 at 33-34 and he went to three slam finals in the next two years and lost each one to Nole, by the way.
 

Front242

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^ That's the thing, playing on will make that winning % go down but how many 34/35 year olds reach slam finals? Winning % is a largely bs stat imo for that reason and Borg's is irrelevant given he retired at 25.

Another way of looking at it is this. Let's say, for example, Djokovic played on till age 38 and never reached another slam final (just a random example, obviously about as likely as Oleg MacNoLeg winning the NYC marathon but you get the idea), well his winning % stays the same as now at age 29, but clearly reaching slam finals for the next 9 years would be way more impressive even if he lost every one.
 

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My thoughts on why Stan won:

Djokovic generally wins because he changes his game to prey on his opponent's weakness- either short point shot making or long rally/defensive play.

Stan (when playing at peak form) might be the only player who currently has an advantage against Djokovic in both areas. Stan is the better ball striker, and (with the caveat of when he is "on") can beat Djokovic in a shotmaking game. But, he also has the advantage in long rallies, due to two factors: the weight of shot he hits with (i.e. on each consecutive trade he is gaining advantage) and his defensive movement, which is very underrated.

Del Po (as much as I am fan of his) has shotmaking ability and even the weight of the shot advantage on the forehand side, but not the defensive movement to back it up, so Djokovic can get him moving and win points that way in long rallies or prey on the backhand.

Murray is the reverse- while obviously able to stay in long rallies with Djokovic, he can't build consecutive shots to get an advantage in a rally, but has insane defense/movement. Djokovic can wear Andy down in the long points, and probably beat him in a shotmaking contest too.

As for Roger and Rafa... they at one point had the advantage over Djokovic in both facets of the game, but that has flip-flopped a bunch of times due to age, injuries, Djokovic's improvement from his early to mid 20's, etc. I think Rafa could regain the advantage if he returns to his top form, which is not out of the question. I think Roger's chances at returning to his top form for an extended period of time are low- but maybe for a GS (or the final rounds of a GS) in the next year or two isn't too much to ask for.
 

shawnbm

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By teh way, Kieran, is Ellsworth Vines gone for good?
 

lob

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WTF happened? I stopped following after the first set.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
 

Kieran

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shawnbm said:
By teh way, Kieran, is Ellsworth Vines gone for good?

I can't abandon young Ralph, brother, not until he releases me with another great performance similar to the match he played in my avatar. Once he does, Ellsworth Vines will be once more removed from cryogenic stasis... :popcorn
 

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To take 3 sets from Novak on the second Sunday takes balls. It's not easy to dig yourself out of so many BPs and 0-40 without some serious balls.

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Kieran said:
Just watched extended highlights, and it reminded me of a lot of big matches Nole lost, where the opponent just wouldn't wilt under that defensive onslaught, and Nole eventually ran out of clues on how to win it, bar pulling a dodgy MTO, which thankfully didn't upset Stan enough for him to drop serve, which was its intended purpose. Nole has been making hay against players who are either in decline, or else players who are never going to make the grade, and this has caused an inflated reckoning on his share price, imo. He's still a great player, still occasionally brittle if they stand up to him, but I'm glad Stan won this one because of the way he won, and also because Nole's draw - beating JJ, MIA and AWOL - was such a boon to him.

Stan looked swaggering and hitting one-handed backhands like they were back in fashion. He is a big match player - now. He wasn't always, and he's not consistent at it, but that's 3 seasons in a row he's won a major, and it's 11 finals in a row he's won, which is great for him, and the game.

Oh, and isn't his girlfriend gorgeous! :basiate

You make it sound like Nole is just a good defensive player. He has much more offensive shotmaking than a certain player I don't care for, a certain player who is noted for being the best defensive player of all time. Nole's stock price is not inflated, most still have him behind Pete and Nadal despite the fact he won the Nole slam (Pete was garbage on clay) and has been a dominant #1 for a long time now (something Rafa never was). Rafa wasn't on the decline until mid-2014, which is 3 years after Djokovic usurped him as the best player in the world.

Stan just morphs into a superhuman in the big matches. It's hard to explain but he deserves all the credit in the world. And he is the only player capable of overpowering Nole from the baseline. Djokovic probably would've beaten anyone else yesterday. The slams Stan has won have been done the incredibly hard way, beating the #1 in all 3 finals and having a fairly tough road just to get there.
 

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No wonder Donna fell for him. With balls like that, which girl can resist you? :D
I just want to congratulate Stan, I am so glad for him, like my brother won a gs or something. He played like a MAN, hence his nickname. Really gutsy play by him, there were moments in which the match was really really tight, but the dude is just made of steel. Regarding Mister Novak's injury, it wasn't really clear what he struggled with in the end, but neither the arm nor the shoulder seemed to act up. This could have been a lot quicker and a much more painful scoreline if Stan's serve wasn't so up and down, but I am not complaining. I am merely pointing out that Wawrinka himslef has declined, and his serve doesn't pack the punch it did in the past.
 

Kieran

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DarthFed said:
Kieran said:
Just watched extended highlights, and it reminded me of a lot of big matches Nole lost, where the opponent just wouldn't wilt under that defensive onslaught, and Nole eventually ran out of clues on how to win it, bar pulling a dodgy MTO, which thankfully didn't upset Stan enough for him to drop serve, which was its intended purpose. Nole has been making hay against players who are either in decline, or else players who are never going to make the grade, and this has caused an inflated reckoning on his share price, imo. He's still a great player, still occasionally brittle if they stand up to him, but I'm glad Stan won this one because of the way he won, and also because Nole's draw - beating JJ, MIA and AWOL - was such a boon to him.

Stan looked swaggering and hitting one-handed backhands like they were back in fashion. He is a big match player - now. He wasn't always, and he's not consistent at it, but that's 3 seasons in a row he's won a major, and it's 11 finals in a row he's won, which is great for him, and the game.

Oh, and isn't his girlfriend gorgeous! :basiate

You make it sound like Nole is just a good defensive player. He has much more offensive shotmaking than a certain player I don't care for, a certain player who is noted for being the best defensive player of all time. Nole's stock price is not inflated, most still have him behind Pete and Nadal despite the fact he won the Nole slam (Pete was garbage on clay) and has been a dominant #1 for a long time now (something Rafa never was). Rafa wasn't on the decline until mid-2014, which is 3 years after Djokovic usurped him as the best player in the world.

I think we can almost grade different eras in the Open era, given how different they are. This homogenised era is a lot different culturally to the fast-paced, knife-in-the-dark period Pete dominated. Pete's period of multi-surface, multi-speed tennis is different to the 70's, where there were slams on two different clay courts, and all the grass courts played differently.

Novak is obviously more than just a bloke who skates across the baseline getting the ball back. He has a great serve too. But he's always been the player in the Big 3 who'd be most likely to defer to strong opposition, or certain conditions in the crowd. Apart, obviously, from Wodger when he faces young Ralph.

And he seemed more like the Nole who lost the USO finals in 2012, than he was the dominant bloke who clouted an ancient Federer a few times, albeit in long struggles against the old geezer, who doubtless wondered when this youngster would allow an old codger to go to bed.

:popcorn