US Open - Day 5 - Discussion (Men)

[Denis]

Well I wont be part of that, seen enough rafa matches to know they guy can be virtually impossible to beat. The way he could defend and dominate, well only novak could match that and not on clay.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well, it's kind of a vicious circle. Having no confidence means less spite in the shot, which leads to more trouble in the rally. But suffering physical wear and tear reduces confidence. He's in a bind, either way, and it's a common problem for players at a certain stage of their career...

You can have all the confidence in the world but with rafa's current game you will not win a slam. The confidence drops because of the lack of level. It's not the other way around.

But when you have Rafa's current game you won't have all the confidence in the world. Now obviously, this isn't a chicken and egg thing because we know what comes first in this case (decline first, then loss in confidence), but the loss of confidence surely isn't helping him to try to manage that decline. That's what you don't seem to be taking into account. Rafa now is seemingly playing with the pressure of wanting better results, as opposed to just trying to play better and see what happens then. He's too anxious/nervous/lacking in confidence. None of this of course negates the fact that as you said, his game has fallen apart completely (lack of confidence won't make you slow. The fact that he's slower is due to a decline).

 

[Denis]

Well, it's kind of a vicious circle. Having no confidence means less spite in the shot, which leads to more trouble in the rally. But suffering physical wear and tear reduces confidence. He's in a bind, either way, and it's a common problem for players at a certain stage of their career...

You can have all the confidence in the world but with rafa's current game you will not win a slam. The confidence drops because of the lack of level. It's not the other way around.

But when you have Rafa's current game you won't have all the confidence in the world. Now obviously, this isn't a chicken and egg thing because we know what comes first in this case (decline first, then loss in confidence), but the loss of confidence surely isn't helping him to try to manage that decline. That's what you don't seem to be taking into account. Rafa now is seemingly playing with the pressure of wanting better results, as opposed to just trying to play better and see what happens then. He's too anxious/nervous/lacking in confidence. None of this of course negates the fact that as you said, his game has fallen apart completely (lack of confidence won't make you slow. The fact that he's slower is due to a decline).

In the greater scheme of things this is marginal. Confidence might get him past f3, but it will not get him past novak. And those are the wins that actually matter.

 

[Kieran]

If Rafa was confident, he'd move better. A player who's laden with heavy worry moves slower and less well than one who's filled with the joys of spring. He'd hit harder, and with more surety. He'd serve better. I can't think of one aspect of his game that wouldn't improve if he was filled with confidence. Maybe he wouldn't improve to 2013 levels, but he'd be far more competitive and dangerous player than he currently is...

 

[Front242]

You don't move better as you get older. It's called age.

 

[Denis]

If Rafa was confident, he'd move better. A player who's laden with heavy worry moves slower and less well than one who's filled with the joys of spring. He'd hit harder, and with more surety. He'd serve better. I can't think of one aspect of his game that wouldn't improve if he was filled with confidence. Maybe he wouldn't improve to 2013 levels, but he'd be far more competitive and dangerous player than he currently is...

One can only hope that uncle Toni is telling rafa the same thing. :snicker

 

[Kieran]

You don't move better as you get older. It's called age.

Nobody said you do. But he would certainly move better if he wasn't laden with anxiety...

 

[Front242]

You don't move better as you get older. It's called age.

Nobody said you do. But he would certainly move better if he wasn't laden with anxiety...

Count me out of those who think this is all down to anxiety and confidence. He game has just gone south. Short balls, too many with no pop on them in the centre of the court, way more errors than usual and he's a step slower, probably two steps slower. That's why he's losing. And of course 'cos the rest of tour can see he's beatable because of all the above.

 

[Kieran]

You don't move better as you get older. It's called age.

Nobody said you do. But he would certainly move better if he wasn't laden with anxiety...

Count me out of those who think this is all down to anxiety and confidence. He game has just gone south. Short balls, too many with no pop on them in the centre of the court, way more errors than usual and he's a step slower, probably two steps slower. That's why he's losing. And of course 'cos the rest of tour can see he's beatable because of all the above.

And nobody said its all down to anxiety and confidence, either.

Cheer up, brother, Dublin just hammered Mayo! :clap

 

[House]

I would say 5% of these losses should be contributed to "confidence." People are incredulous that Roger is playing so well in his old age, but look at his game. It's as easy on the body as possible, and he keeps taking steps to make it even easier. Rafa on the other hand is so physical, that it's no surprise the drop off is going to much more dramatic. Doesn't mean he can't recover it, but it's not confidence. He's just playing like crap.

 

[Kieran]

That's what we're all saying, House. And he has a lot of work ahead to correct it. Fortunately, he's never scared of a bit of hard work.

Feli v FFS should be an interesting one though...

 

[Denis]

Rafa is giving us surprise by surprise, yesterday he started to play strong and sharp including with the serve and deep shots, Fog was playing well too. Later Rafa's level started to fall down quickly and obviously lost a match which was in his hands but his mind gave a trick on him again
It's clear that he can't play with constancy giving better opportunities to his opponents and it doesn't matter who is to the other side of the net, his confidence is unstable like the "jelly" and if he doesn't change that he will continue losing against anyone. Definitely he needs help, someone to remind him who he is and what much better results he can do

That's what we're all saying, House. And he has a lot of work ahead to correct it. Fortunately, he's never scared of a bit of hard work.

Feli v FFS should be an interesting one though...

Not all of us, here is a quote of one poster who has been particularly been vocal in this respect. There have been others. You too have been playing the confidence card a lot.

BS has been the only Nadal supporter being frank about the drop in level as early as Oz this year.

 

[Kieran]

I've been quite frank about that myself. And I agree with Broken, that there's technical and mental issues. But it goes back even further, because Rafa has declined since the US Open 2013. He kinda lost intensity for the rest of that year, so none of us minded, or thought of it as a decline. It was like the demands of the summer had wasted him, and he got what he wanted from the year, anyhow, although of course he'd have wanted London too.

He reached the Oz final in 2014, and the conclusion of that final was obviously disastrous for him physically, but in the way he got there, we didn't mind that, though it was obvious that both Kei and Grigor gave him a hard time. That happens, and a player might still win the slam (ref: Novak v Anderson, Wimbo 2015).

But since Oz 2014, he's beaten who? Apart from the second week in Paris that year, he's been more or less struggling. This year, of course he's been "very beatable". Who could deny it?

By the way, Tignor has a good article about the match with FFS, where he gives great credit to the Italian - and Spaniard - for the level of play:

Fognini dominated the rallies, but he wasn’t the only one providing the entertainment. Rafa, as he will, fought against the fifth-set ground-stroke tsunami. He ran as he always runs, tried every spin and angle he could, pushed back against the tide, and was carried along by a crowd that chanted his name. He forced Fognini to end points with blazing winners, and Fognini did—he hit 70 of them, 20 in the fifth set alone. At one point late in the fifth, the level of play had soared so high that I jumped a little in my seat when Nadal hit a ball that clipped the net. It was a rare flaw in the masterpiece.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It's the first loss in his career after being up 2 sets to 0, so in that respect it is the worst.

It's not. He was up 2 sets to love against Federer in Miami in 2005, and lost. Trust me, losing to Federer has to rank as an all-time low... :snicker

It is the first loss in grandslam matches after leading 2-0 in sets. He has 151-0 when leading 2-0 in GS matches.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, it's kind of a vicious circle. Having no confidence means less spite in the shot, which leads to more trouble in the rally. But suffering physical wear and tear reduces confidence. He's in a bind, either way, and it's a common problem for players at a certain stage of their career...

You can have all the confidence in the world but with rafa's current game you will not win a slam. The confidence drops because of the lack of level. It's not the other way around.

But when you have Rafa's current game you won't have all the confidence in the world. Now obviously, this isn't a chicken and egg thing because we know what comes first in this case (decline first, then loss in confidence), but the loss of confidence surely isn't helping him to try to manage that decline. That's what you don't seem to be taking into account. Rafa now is seemingly playing with the pressure of wanting better results, as opposed to just trying to play better and see what happens then. He's too anxious/nervous/lacking in confidence. None of this of course negates the fact that as you said, his game has fallen apart completely (lack of confidence won't make you slow. The fact that he's slower is due to a decline).

Good analysis. Confidence also plays a role here and you cannot write it off completely as Denisovich does. Obviously, the decline is the reason for loss of confidence. But, the loss of confidence makes Rafa loses big points more often than not leading to loss of more matches that he "should have won" this year. Rafa has lost as many as six matches this year which are called lottery matches . A detailed statistical analysis is provided by 538 in the podcast.

 

[Denis]

You can have all the confidence in the world but with rafa's current game you will not win a slam. The confidence drops because of the lack of level. It's not the other way around.

But when you have Rafa's current game you won't have all the confidence in the world. Now obviously, this isn't a chicken and egg thing because we know what comes first in this case (decline first, then loss in confidence), but the loss of confidence surely isn't helping him to try to manage that decline. That's what you don't seem to be taking into account. Rafa now is seemingly playing with the pressure of wanting better results, as opposed to just trying to play better and see what happens then. He's too anxious/nervous/lacking in confidence. None of this of course negates the fact that as you said, his game has fallen apart completely (lack of confidence won't make you slow. The fact that he's slower is due to a decline).

In the greater scheme of things this is marginal. Confidence might get him past f3, but it will not get him past novak. And those are the wins that actually matter.

You can have all the confidence in the world but with rafa's current game you will not win a slam. The confidence drops because of the lack of level. It's not the other way around.

But when you have Rafa's current game you won't have all the confidence in the world. Now obviously, this isn't a chicken and egg thing because we know what comes first in this case (decline first, then loss in confidence), but the loss of confidence surely isn't helping him to try to manage that decline. That's what you don't seem to be taking into account. Rafa now is seemingly playing with the pressure of wanting better results, as opposed to just trying to play better and see what happens then. He's too anxious/nervous/lacking in confidence. None of this of course negates the fact that as you said, his game has fallen apart completely (lack of confidence won't make you slow. The fact that he's slower is due to a decline).

Good analysis. Confidence also plays a role here and you cannot write it off completely as Denisovich does. Obviously, the decline is the reason for loss of confidence. But, the loss of confidence makes Rafa loses big points more often than not leading to loss of more matches that he "should have won" this year. Rafa has lost as many as six matches this year which are called lottery matches . A detailed statistical analysis is provided by 538 in the podcast.

Never dismissed it completely, see post above pretty much what you repeat, I got sick and tired of people blaming Nadals decline to confidence all the time.

 

[Busted]

I would say 5% of these losses should be contributed to "confidence." People are incredulous that Roger is playing so well in his old age, but look at his game. It's as easy on the body as possible, and he keeps taking steps to make it even easier. Rafa on the other hand is so physical, that it's no surprise the drop off is going to much more dramatic. Doesn't mean he can't recover it, but it's not confidence. He's just playing like crap.

Another problem is - guys know they can beat him now and that's gotten in his head as well. For God's sake - Feliciano Lopez, #19 in the world and never won a Slam, actually said something like, "When I'm playing my best he can't beat me." :laydownlaughing That's just WRONG! LOL! There's no mystique to Nadal amongst the lower ranked players anymore. McEnroe was talking about it during Fed's match - how Roger had lost that intimidation factor with the lesser players in 2013 when he had back problems, but has gotten it back and doing so at 34 is remarkable. Nadal needs to do what Roger did - drop weight, get leaner and work on his speed, his net game and start coming forward to shorten points. He looks bulky\muscle-bound, heavy-footed and sort of lumbering on the court. Stop worrying about his underwear modeling contract and start getting his body ready for TENNIS instead.

 

[brokenshoelace]

For the record, I agree with House. Rafa's results, in general, are due to the fact that he's playing like utter garbage. However, once you examine each defeat, there can be no denying that some could have been avoided if he was more sure of himself. I mean, even while playing far from his best tennis, he was two sets to love and a break up against Fognini. Surely if he hadn't been losing so often he would have stepped on Fognini's neck and finished the match. After all, we are talking about arguably the greatest front runner in history (forget his record after being up 2 sets. Check out his record in slams after winning the first set. It's ridiculous).

Nevertheless, even if some of those defeat would have been avoided by playing the big points better, they only would have delayed the inevitable, due to the fact that Nadal is indeed, playing like crap.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Another problem is - guys know they can beat him now and that's gotten in his head as well. For God's sake - Feliciano Lopez, #19 in the world and never won a Slam, actually said something like, "When I'm playing my best he can't beat me."

I'm willing to be serious money he didn't say that.

 

[Front242]

I would say 5% of these losses should be contributed to "confidence." People are incredulous that Roger is playing so well in his old age, but look at his game. It's as easy on the body as possible, and he keeps taking steps to make it even easier. Rafa on the other hand is so physical, that it's no surprise the drop off is going to much more dramatic. Doesn't mean he can't recover it, but it's not confidence. He's just playing like crap.

Another problem is - guys know they can beat him now and that's gotten in his head as well. For God's sake - Feliciano Lopez, #19 in the world and never won a Slam, actually said something like, "When I'm playing my best he can't beat me." :laydownlaughing That's just WRONG! LOL! There's no mystique to Nadal amongst the lower ranked players anymore. McEnroe was talking about it during Fed's match - how Roger had lost that intimidation factor with the lesser players in 2013 when he had back problems, but has gotten it back and doing so at 34 is remarkable. Nadal needs to do what Roger did - drop weight, get leaner and work on his speed, his net game and start coming forward to shorten points. He looks bulky\muscle-bound, heavy-footed and sort of lumbering on the court. Stop worrying about his underwear modeling contract and start getting his body ready for TENNIS instead.

Only his quads are bulky these days. Other than that and a reasonable sized left bicep he's lost pretty much all the mass he had in 2004-2006/2007 and isn't exactly cover model material anymore by a longshot unless they Photoshop some pecs and abs onto him.