US Open Betting Odds

[Kieran]

Thanks for that.

I suppose it takes a while for the system to catch up. Here's the odds 3 days ago, and Rafa's odds have moved only slightly outwards. I'm sure the real activity will take place once the implications have sunk in...

Here are the odds of outright winning USO as of today, the 27th July.

Novak Djokovic 13/8
Rafael Nadal 18/5
Andy Murray 11/2
Roger Federer 8
Stan Wawrinka 14

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I hope the bookies know something we don't if they now reckon that Andy only has a slightly worse chance than Rafa of winning in New York.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Bookies believe so much in Rafa that his odds have not gone up drastically even
after his announcement of his wrist injury had sunk in. From 18/5 Rafa's odds
have increased only to 9/2; I was anticipating that it would shoot upto 10.
Here are the latest odds

Novak Djokovic 6/4 --------- 40%
Rafael Nadal 9/2 -------------- 18%
Andy Murray 11/2 ----------- 15%
Roger Federer 8 --------------- 11%
Stan Wawrinka 14 -------------- 7%

The odds for swiss folks have not changed an iota. Since my last post in this thread,
the odds for Novak has further reduced, while that of both Rafa and Andy has increased.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds, as of Sunday the 3rd August. Rafa is no longer the second in line
to win the USO.

Novak Djokovic 6/4 --------- 40%
Andy Murray 11/2 ----------- 15%
Rafa Nadal 6 ----------------- 14%
Roger Federer 8 ------------- 11%
Stan Wawrinka 14 ------------ 7%

Field has 13% chance to win. I think this is the highest chance Field had in a long time in a GS.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Murray might not even be seeded in the top 8 and he's second favourite now? I repeat my earlier sentiments - hopefully the bookies know something we don't...

 

[herios]

Murray might not even be seeded in the top 8 and he's second favourite now? I repeat my earlier sentiments - hopefully the bookies know something we don't...

Well, Murray's odds have not changed a bit, Rafa's dropped.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds, 24 hours after the loss by Novak and the Man.

Novak Djokovic 7/5 --------- 42%
Andy Murray 5 -------------- 17%
Rafa Nadal 6 ----------------- 14%
Roger Federer 8 ------------- 11%
Stan Wawrinka 15 ------------ 6%

Basically, Andy's odds have decreased and Stan's odds have increased, understandably.

Unundertandably, Novak's odds has decreased slightly.

Rafa's and Roger's odds remain the same.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds, about seven hours after the Toronto final.

Novak Djokovic 7/5 --------- 42%
Andy Murray 5 -------------- 17%
Rafa Nadal 7 ----------------- 12.5%
Roger Federer 7 ------------- 12.5%
Stan Wawrinka 15 ------------ 6%

It took a whole week of hard work for Roger to finally reach the odds that Rafa
had while sitting home with an injury. The "field" has 10% chance of winning.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tsonga's odds range from 20 to 33 depending on which betting house you are looking at.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Major changes in Odds of winning USO. Finally, Fed has squeaked past Rafa. Also,
Baby replaces Man in top 5. This is after the first two rounds of Cincy.


Novak Djokovic 7/5 ------------ 42%
Andy Murray 9/2 --------------- 18%
Roger Federer 15/2 ------------ 12%
Rafael Nadal 17/2 -------------- 11%
Grigor Dimitrov 16 --------------- 6%

 

[herios]

I do not see the reason to give better odds to Grigor than to Stan.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I put Stan, Grigor and Raonic in the same tier, in that order, with not much between them.

The only reason Federer and probably Murray have better odds than Rafa is the uncertainty over his participation. If Nadal announces he's playing New York I'll be very surprised if he isn't back up to 2nd favourite a day or two later.

 

[herios]

I put Stan, Grigor and Raonic in the same tier, in that order, with not much between them.

I don't. For me, the ceiling for Stan is higher than for Grigor or Milos, at least for now.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds, a couple of hours after Cincy final.

Novak Djokovic 8/5 ------------ 38%
Andy Murray 9/2 --------------- 18%
Roger Federer 5 ---------------- 17%
Rafael Nadal 8 ------------------ 11%
Stan Warinka 16 ---------------- 6%

Amazingly, Andy's odds are still better than Fed's. Novak's odds have increased a bit
and Fed's odds have come down considerably. Field has 10% chance of winning.

 

[tented]

Here are the latest odds, a couple of hours after Cincy final.

Novak Djokovic 8/5 ------------ 38%
Andy Murray 9/2 --------------- 18%
Roger Federer 5 ---------------- 17%
Rafael Nadal 8 ------------------ 11%
Stan Warinka 16 ---------------- 6%

Amazingly, Andy's odds are still better than Fed's. Novak's odds have increased a bit
and Fed's odds have come down considerably. Field has 10% chance of winning.

None of that makes sense to me. I'd love to hear their reasoning behind these decisions.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

It's crazy that Murray is still deemed to be more likely than Federer. Perhaps that will change in the next couple of days following Roger's Cincy success. The odds are based on a variety of things, it would be hard to separate it out and say "this explains why Murray's odds are better than Federer's".

As for the Novak part, that actually does make sense - GSM means by Novak's odds increasing that they have gotten slightly longer, i.e. he is deemed less likely to win it than before (notice he has gone from 42% chance to 38% chance), a reflection of his poor losses this fortnight.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As TF7 says, odds are complex stuff and in fact even the betting houses will not provide
any explanation. They will just throw the numbers at you.

For Andy fans, here is one way to look at it. In 2012 when he won USO, Andy bombed
out in both Toronto and Cincy in R16 itself. So, his warm-up this year is going better
as he reached R16 and QF in Toronto and Cincy respectively. Assuming nobody says
anything nasty to him forty five minutes before the match, he will probably at least
reach a QF and at that point you never know how the field looks like. Having said
all that, I certainly would not bet a penny on him winning USO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

One more thing to keep in mind is that the odds that I am reporting in this thread
are the HIGHEST odds that you can get for a particular player some betting house.
Note that if you have already decided to bet on say Federer, it is better to place your
bet in the house that gives him odds of 5 as opposed to another house that gives
him odds of 4.

So, the odds that you see for different players in my posting are not necessarily
given by the same betting house.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds three hours after the announcement by Rafa. Finally,
the oddsmakers have come to senses and recognize that Fed is the second favorite.


Novak Djokovic 13/10 ------------ 43%
Roger Federer 15/4 --------------- 21%
Andy Murray 9/2 ------------------ 18%
Stan Wawrinka 16 ---------------- 6%
Grigor Dimitrov 18 --------------- 5%

 

[TennisFanatic7]

That's a huge boost to Roger's chances. Understandable given that his roadblock opponent is out of the tournament and he's just won Cincinnati. I wonder how much of a boost he would have had though if he'd won Cincy and Nadal was still in the tournament.

It looks to me as if the bookies are giving him significantly more chance because Rafa isn't playing, than they are because of his Cincinnati title.