US Open Betting Odds

[GameSetAndMath]

His best chance is for Novak and Ralf not to make it past their opponent prior to meeting him in the draw. Oh, and Berdych can't be in his quarter either. :nono

Looks like may be one should create a bomb scare and make all players go away, the way you are describing.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I have to say I don't rate Roger's chances here. Who's going to take out Djokovic and or Nadal?

Murray can't be expected to get it done at the moment.
Berdych has a horrible record against both of those guys.
Wawrinka - does lightning strike twice?
Tsonga has gone totally off the radar.
Del Potro won't be fully fit even if he plays.
Dimitrov could probably trouble Novak but doesn't match up well vs Rafa.
Raonic I think could take one of them out over 3 sets on his day, but 5?
Ferrer, Gulbis, Nishikori.... Meh.

I really fancied Roger's chances at Wimbledon because of Nadal's struggles on grass (doesn't apply here), Novak's poor recent record against the other Big Four guys in majors (shouldn't be an issue after Wimbledon) and Murray's all round poor form (still a factor). I do think he *could* take Djokovic out but it's a tough ask.

 

[DarthFed]

I like you Darth, but I like you even more when you underestimate Nole. I bet you must have licked your chops when Federer had to face Nole in Wimbledon final? After all Nole is not really that good on grass.

One thing I am certain this year is that Nole is completely healthy (knock on wood it stays that way), which wasn't the case last year, and he is in much better state of mind. That is actually the most important thing for him - his mental stability because even slightly injured he can still compete and win like in 2011.

I like you too Billie

I don't feel like I'm underestimating him. I fancied Roger's chances in the Wimbledon final for sure, and I'd fancy them tomorrow if they replayed it. Djokovic played great, best I've seen him look on grass and deserves the credit there but it still was close. I'd expect another war if they play at USO, I don't see any reason not to. Roger is only marginally worse than 2011 and Djokovic is not playing like that either. Maybe this time Roger won't gag...I can hope

Where did Nole go in Greece for his honeymoon?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I have to say I don't rate Roger's chances here. Who's going to take out Djokovic and or Nadal?

Murray can't be expected to get it done at the moment.
Berdych has a horrible record against both of those guys.
Wawrinka - does lightning strike twice?
Tsonga has gone totally off the radar.
Del Potro won't be fully fit even if he plays.
Dimitrov could probably trouble Novak but doesn't match up well vs Rafa.
Raonic I think could take one of them out over 3 sets on his day, but 5?
Ferrer, Gulbis, Nishikori.... Meh.

I agree with all other comments except for Wawrinka. Wawrinka's win is not
a lightning. Lightning is an euphemism for fluke. Wawrinka beat both Novak and
Rafa at AO. Also, Wawrinka played close matches against Novak in both AO
and USO of last year. Also, he beat Fed in MC. So, Wawrinka's game has definitely
substantially improved. His wins over big players is not a fluke or lightning.

I think Wawrinka can take one of them out. The other one may fall early.
But, it is too much to ask for both of them to go away. Winning them against
both, one after the other would certainly be impossible for Roger. But, I think
Roger can possibly take one of them.

Contrary to many folks on this board, I would still give Roger some chance
to beat Rafa at USO. No, I am not hallucinating and Neither am I saying
Roger is the favorite in that match. I would give Roger at least a 25%
chance in that match while most including Fed fans such as Darthfed
and BB give him 0% chance.

After all Rafa has never beaten Roger at USO (he he).

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I have to say I don't rate Roger's chances here. Who's going to take out Djokovic and or Nadal?

Murray can't be expected to get it done at the moment.
Berdych has a horrible record against both of those guys.
Wawrinka - does lightning strike twice?
Tsonga has gone totally off the radar.
Del Potro won't be fully fit even if he plays.
Dimitrov could probably trouble Novak but doesn't match up well vs Rafa.
Raonic I think could take one of them out over 3 sets on his day, but 5?
Ferrer, Gulbis, Nishikori.... Meh.

I agree with all other comments except for Wawrinka. Wawrinka's win is not
a lightning. Lightning is an euphemism for fluke. Wawrinka beat both Novak and
Rafa at AO. Also, Wawrinka played close matches against Novak in both AO
and USO of last year. Also, he beat Fed in MC. So, Wawrinka's game has definitely
substantially improved. His wins over big players is not a fluke or lightning.

I think Wawrinka can take one of them out. The other one may fall early.
But, it is too much to ask for both of them to go away. Winning them against
both, one after the other would certainly be impossible for Roger. But, I think
Roger can possibly take one of them.

Contrary to many folks on this board, I would still give Roger some chance
to beat Rafa at USO. No, I am not hallucinating and Neither am I saying
Roger is the favorite in that match. I would give Roger at least a 25%
chance in that match while most including Fed fans such as Darthfed
and BB give him 0% chance.

After all Rafa has never beaten Roger at USO (he he).

I'm perhaps being harsh on Stan with the wording, I admit, but I do think his potential to assist Roger is limited. He can only clear one of Nole and Rafa out of Federer's way because he'll be seeded to face one of them in the semi finals and Roger will be expected to face the other one in the other semi. And for Stan to even come into play for the Big Three, he has to get to the semi final stage in the first place which is by no means a given for him. Depends on the draw...

The best Stan scenario for Federer would be for Wawrinka to take out Nadal in the semi finals while Roger has to get through Djokovic and then Wawrinka for the title, which is still a toughie for him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I have to say I don't rate Roger's chances here. Who's going to take out Djokovic and or Nadal?

Murray can't be expected to get it done at the moment.
Berdych has a horrible record against both of those guys.
Wawrinka - does lightning strike twice?
Tsonga has gone totally off the radar.
Del Potro won't be fully fit even if he plays.
Dimitrov could probably trouble Novak but doesn't match up well vs Rafa.
Raonic I think could take one of them out over 3 sets on his day, but 5?
Ferrer, Gulbis, Nishikori.... Meh.

I agree with all other comments except for Wawrinka. Wawrinka's win is not
a lightning. Lightning is an euphemism for fluke. Wawrinka beat both Novak and
Rafa at AO. Also, Wawrinka played close matches against Novak in both AO
and USO of last year. Also, he beat Fed in MC. So, Wawrinka's game has definitely
substantially improved. His wins over big players is not a fluke or lightning.

I think Wawrinka can take one of them out. The other one may fall early.
But, it is too much to ask for both of them to go away. Winning them against
both, one after the other would certainly be impossible for Roger. But, I think
Roger can possibly take one of them.

Contrary to many folks on this board, I would still give Roger some chance
to beat Rafa at USO. No, I am not hallucinating and Neither am I saying
Roger is the favorite in that match. I would give Roger at least a 25%
chance in that match while most including Fed fans such as Darthfed
and BB give him 0% chance.

After all Rafa has never beaten Roger at USO (he he).

I'm perhaps being harsh on Stan with the wording, I admit, but I do think his potential to assist Roger is limited. He can only clear one of Nole and Rafa out of Federer's way because he'll be seeded to face one of them in the semi finals and Roger will be expected to face the other one in the other semi. And for Stan to even come into play for the Big Three, he has to get to the semi final stage in the first place which is by no means a given for him. Depends on the draw...

The best Stan scenario for Federer would be for Wawrinka to take out Nadal in the semi finals while Roger has to get through Djokovic and then Wawrinka for the title, which is still a toughie for him.

The bolded part is true for any specific player, not just Wawrinika, as Rafa and Novak will be
in different halves. What are you thinking?

But, I don't think Wawrinka needs to specifically take out Nadal. If he can take out
any one of them, it would be fine.

I agree with you that Stan is more suspect in getting to his designated spot in SF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Finally, strange things happen. After all, Murray won Wimbledon in 2013
and he neither faced Federer nor faced Rafa despite the fact that both Fed and
Rafa were in his half. Morevoer, not many people knew the names of those
who took out Rafa and Roger.

More recently Novak won Wimbledon last month and he faced only one
top 10 player in the entire tournament.

In WTA, Marion won Wimbledon last year without facing a top 100 opponent. :snigger

 

[TennisFanatic7]

All true and that thing about specifically Stan only being able to take one of them out due to them being in separate halves was a stupid oversight on my part.

Is that what you mean about Bartoli? Sloane Stephens, Kirsten Flipkens and Sabine Lisicki were all seeded, let alone top 100! None in top 10 though so I'm assuming you've just got a bit carried away with the 0 button

 

[Billie]

I like you Darth, but I like you even more when you underestimate Nole. I bet you must have licked your chops when Federer had to face Nole in Wimbledon final? After all Nole is not really that good on grass.

One thing I am certain this year is that Nole is completely healthy (knock on wood it stays that way), which wasn't the case last year, and he is in much better state of mind. That is actually the most important thing for him - his mental stability because even slightly injured he can still compete and win like in 2011.

I like you too Billie

I don't feel like I'm underestimating him. I fancied Roger's chances in the Wimbledon final for sure, and I'd fancy them tomorrow if they replayed it. Djokovic played great, best I've seen him look on grass and deserves the credit there but it still was close. I'd expect another war if they play at USO, I don't see any reason not to. Roger is only marginally worse than 2011 and Djokovic is not playing like that either. Maybe this time Roger won't gag...I can hope

Where did Nole go in Greece for his honeymoon?

Islands, where else.

Trust me my darling, you are underestimating Nole, always have, but it's OK, I am used to it and it amuses me more than anything. And you have every right to believe in your guy.

 

[herios]

All this speculation about against who has Roger more chances in the SF, might be just a theoretical exercise. We are again assuming the seeding will play out although in recent slams it did not.
Just a reminder, this year at the AO only 1 (Nadal) of the top 4 made the SF, at RG only 2 (Nadal and Djokovic) and at Wimbledon again only 2 (Djokovic and Federer).

That is why I do not spend energy on what can Nole do against a Roger or anyone else, because there is no point. A Wawrinka, Gilbis, Raonic or Dimitrov might spoil the whole thing, by the time we are there, anyway.

 

[Billie]

Herios, you have taken a party pooper title away from me it seems.:laydownlaughing

Yeah so many scenarios are possible, even if Nole made all the finals here since 2010, I don't take it for granted that he will be there this year again. I learned my lesson!

But people have to discuss something.

 

[Kieran]

I'd expect another war if they play at USO, I don't see any reason not to. Roger is only marginally worse than 2011 and Djokovic is not playing like that either. Maybe this time Roger won't gag...I can hope

That would be a lovely scenario, rounded off by a Fedal final there for the first time...

 

[herios]

Herios, you have taken a party pooper title away from me it seems.:laydownlaughing

Yeah so many scenarios are possible, even if Nole made all the finals here since 2010, I don't take it for granted that he will be there this year again. I learned my lesson!

But people have to discuss something.

I have a subject which could be also speculated about, that is who will be the next "Robredo" Roger could stumble on at the USO? The only problem is Darth will not participate in this topic

 

[herios]

I'd expect another war if they play at USO, I don't see any reason not to. Roger is only marginally worse than 2011 and Djokovic is not playing like that either. Maybe this time Roger won't gag...I can hope

That would be a lovely scenario, rounded off by a Fedal final there for the first time...

Wishes, wishes

 

[Kieran]

I'd expect another war if they play at USO, I don't see any reason not to. Roger is only marginally worse than 2011 and Djokovic is not playing like that either. Maybe this time Roger won't gag...I can hope

That would be a lovely scenario, rounded off by a Fedal final there for the first time...

Wishes, wishes

I don't mind either one, but a Fedal match would be less strain on the heart...

 

[Kieran]

Herios, you have taken a party pooper title away from me it seems.:laydownlaughing

Yeah so many scenarios are possible, even if Nole made all the finals here since 2010, I don't take it for granted that he will be there this year again. I learned my lesson!

But people have to discuss something.

I have a subject which could be also speculated about, that is who will be the next "Robredo" Roger could stumble on at the USO? The only problem is Darth will not participate in this topic

Maybe that would be whoever he's scheduled to face before a match with Rafa... :snigger

 

[herios]

Herios, you have taken a party pooper title away from me it seems.:laydownlaughing

Yeah so many scenarios are possible, even if Nole made all the finals here since 2010, I don't take it for granted that he will be there this year again. I learned my lesson!

But people have to discuss something.

I have a subject which could be also speculated about, that is who will be the next "Robredo" Roger could stumble on at the USO? The only problem is Darth will not participate in this topic

Maybe that would be whoever he's scheduled to face before a match with Rafa... :snigger

That could be Nole and that would not be a novelty. I was thinking someone new.

 

[DarthFed]

Herios, you have taken a party pooper title away from me it seems.:laydownlaughing

Yeah so many scenarios are possible, even if Nole made all the finals here since 2010, I don't take it for granted that he will be there this year again. I learned my lesson!

But people have to discuss something.

I have a subject which could be also speculated about, that is who will be the next "Robredo" Roger could stumble on at the USO? The only problem is Darth will not participate in this topic

Not happening, if he loses before QF it will be Berdych or possibly Murray if the latter gets his act together. Roger knows it is time to dig in and show he can still play, make up for the disastrous last 24 months.

 

[Kieran]

It'll be interesting to see how these change now that Rafa is out of Canada and Cinci.

Nole will become prohibitive favourite, but Federer's odd will sharpen massively. Murray's shouldn't change at all...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the current odds. Keep in mind that the news broke just a couple of hours or
so ago and so it will take time for its effect to fully show up.


Novak Djokovic 33/20
Rafael Nadal 4
Andy Murray 5
Roger Federer 8
Stan Wawrinka 14

No change in the odds for the Swiss folks yet.

Novak's and Andy's decreased and Rafa's increased.

But, I don't think it is due to the effect of the announcement of Rafa's withdrawal
from the NA Masters. I expect drastic changes in the odds in the next 24 hours.
I will keep monitoring this every day for the next three days and then go back
to old routine of once in a week.