US Open Betting Odds

[Kieran]

You're unusually optimistic today, Darth. Are you sure you're alright? If you need to get it off your chest, please pm me, I'm a good listener... :snigger

 

[DarthFed]

I might be overzealous in saying he "should" beat Nole at USO. But I think if he arrives fresh that is a close one. Why is it so much different than 2011? Is Roger that much worse because Nole is certainly not better...

I was encouraged by one thing after the Wimbledon match, his press conference where he said the return was his big problem. I've been saying that for years on here. Maybe, just maybe he will start returning aggressively. That's the main reason he is no longer elite IMO. Nole and Rafa are naturally better from the baseline regardless of surface but Roger has the considerably better serve and still has more all around play. It is the return that make them a lot better and it was the difference at Wimbledon. Nole did a better job returning Roger's amazing serve better than Roger returned Nole's above average serve.

 

[DarthFed]

You're unusually optimistic today, Darth. Are you sure you're alright? If you need to get it off your chest, please pm me, I'm a good listener... :snigger

You mistake pessimism with disappointment. I will never see a loss as some great accomplishment for instance.

You also might deem me "pessimistic" in the middle of a match but I think by now I have a good sense of Roger's chances in a match based on how the action is going and on the past. That's why my celebration over him winning the 4th set of that final was pretty tempered. Roger was magically still alive but where he least wanted to be.

 

[Kieran]

In fairness to Roger, using the bigger racket seems to have taken with him, and maybe helps him more than I thought it would. Edberg is another factor, undeniably a positive influence, for me. But age is definitely a factor. I expect him to be a bit cocky at the US Open, and have a charge at it, but with age, concentration becomes an issue, recovery from long matches, nerves. It can get harder to say that one tournament necessarily indicates what's going to happen in the next one...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds of outright winning USO as of today, the 27th July.

Novak Djokovic 13/8
Rafael Nadal 18/5
Andy Murray 11/2
Roger Federer 8
Stan Wawrinka 14

The odds for Novak has decreased little bit. But, the odds for other players
have not moved even a bit.

The odds increased actually, meaning they are giving him a better chance to win and a lesser payout. It is all based on bets received thus far and it's not like the odds changed a lot.

I agree with your explanation, but I thought this is referred to by saying the odds decreased.
uzzled

 

[DarthFed]

^ I could be wrong but I think of it as though the bookies are saying Nole's odds of winning have increased and therefore the payout has decreased. I just like to gamble, I don't know the language that well so maybe I was mistaken. Only language I need to know is the % they are paying out vs. what I think the % is

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Do I think Federer can still win another major? Yes.

Could he do it going via Nadal? No.

Could he do it going via Djoker? Yes, but Djokovic is the favourite.

Could he do it going via Murray? Yes.

Much will depend on who's on the other side of the court. As long as he's still in contention at the business end of a major then he's always got a chance.

I would still prefer that Roger be drawn in the same half as Rafa at USO, due to
several reasons. If he is drawn with Novak, there is 99% chance that Roger will actually
face Novak in SF, assuming Roger reaches that far. On the other hand, if he is drawn
with Rafa, there is a considerably much less chance that Roger would have to actually
face Rafa in SF, again assuming that Roger reaches that far. So, I think overall it
increases Roger's chances of reaching final if he is drawn in the same half as Rafa.

Finally, this also gives one more chance for Novak to trip up and not face Roger.

 

[Kieran]

I would still prefer that Roger be drawn in the same half as Rafa at USO, due to
several reasons. If he is drawn with Novak, there is 99% chance that Roger will actually
face Novak in SF, assuming Roger reaches that far. On the other hand, if he is drawn
with Rafa, there is a considerably much less chance that Roger would have to actually
face Rafa in SF, again assuming that Roger reaches that far. So, I think overall it
increases Roger's chances of reaching final if he is drawn in the same half as Rafa.

Finally, this also gives one more chance for Novak to trip up and not face Roger.

I love the way you're admitting that Roger v Rafa is just a mismatch that your boy can't win. You hope he'll get another injury break, or someone else will man-up and do what Roger hasn't been able to, since 2007.

But bear in mind, Rafa has reached the final in his last 3 US Opens, and Roger hasn't gotten that far since 2009. Like I said above, I wouldn't set too much store in Wimbledon. It isn't easy to look at that and say it'll hold in Flushing Meadows. Roger's not the man he was, and maintaining any half-decent form will be problematical, going forward...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger's not the man he was, and maintaining any half-decent form will be problematical, going forward...

Yes, clock is ticking and a bit fast at that.

I think Roger has some chances in the next

a. 0 French Opens
b. 1 Australian Open
c. 2 US Opens
d. 3 Wimbledons

as long as he remains a contender and gets some help from draw gods.

 

[DarthFed]

Do I think Federer can still win another major? Yes.

Could he do it going via Nadal? No.

Could he do it going via Djoker? Yes, but Djokovic is the favourite.

Could he do it going via Murray? Yes.

Much will depend on who's on the other side of the court. As long as he's still in contention at the business end of a major then he's always got a chance.

I would still prefer that Roger be drawn in the same half as Rafa at USO, due to
several reasons. If he is drawn with Novak, there is 99% chance that Roger will actually
face Novak in SF, assuming Roger reaches that far. On the other hand, if he is drawn
with Rafa, there is a considerably much less chance that Roger would have to actually
face Rafa in SF, again assuming that Roger reaches that far. So, I think overall it
increases Roger's chances of reaching final if he is drawn in the same half as Rafa.

Finally, this also gives one more chance for Novak to trip up and not face Roger.

Reasonable thought but I don't think Nole has much chance losing a semi at USO this year unless he plays Roger. Murray has a chance but probably not much of one. This means that Roger would still likely have to play Nole in the final anyways.

Roger isn't beating Nadal just like he isn't winning a 5th set vs. anyone good. The bad memories build up and it is something he clearly remembers. And the worse it gets the more unlikely it gets. Roger was Rafa's 2nd easiest match at AO this year, that says it all.

 

[herios]

Roger's not the man he was, and maintaining any half-decent form will be problematical, going forward...

Yes, clock is ticking and a bit fast at that.

I think Roger has some chances in the next

a. 0 French Opens
b. 1 Australian Open
c. 2 US Opens
d. 3 Wimbledons

as long as he remains a contender and gets some help from draw gods.

3 Wimbledons? uzzled

I guess you included here the legends event...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger's not the man he was, and maintaining any half-decent form will be problematical, going forward...

Yes, clock is ticking and a bit fast at that.

I think Roger has some chances in the next

a. 0 French Opens
b. 1 Australian Open
c. 2 US Opens
d. 3 Wimbledons

as long as he remains a contender and gets some help from draw gods.

3 Wimbledons? uzzled

I guess you included here the legends event...

Hey, the worm who is over 35 beat Andy at Queens. Why not?

p.s. BTW, hope you did not misinterprest my message. I am not saying that
Fed will win 3 more wimbledons. I am just saying that he has some chances
of winning in the abovementioned slams.

 

[Billie]

I like you Darth, but I like you even more when you underestimate Nole. I bet you must have licked your chops when Federer had to face Nole in Wimbledon final? After all Nole is not really that good on grass.

One thing I am certain this year is that Nole is completely healthy (knock on wood it stays that way), which wasn't the case last year, and he is in much better state of mind. That is actually the most important thing for him - his mental stability because even slightly injured he can still compete and win like in 2011.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This USO is probably the best chance for Fed with Murray in Doldrums, Nadal somewhat
declining considering his sub-par performance in clay (compared to his usual standards)
& on grass and Novak returning after wedding (he may need few tournaments
to get back to normalcy).

Also, Novak may have to take some toruney off due to impending arrival. Hopefully,
it will not be any of the two NA Masters and USO. As much as Novak is a hindrance to
Fed, I don't want Fed winning it aided by Novak's absence.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Does anybody know the approximate due date for Nole's little bundle?

 

[Moxie]

I like you Darth, but I like you even more when you underestimate Nole. I bet you must have licked your chops when Federer had to face Nole in Wimbledon final? After all Nole is not really that good on grass.

One thing I am certain this year is that Nole is completely healthy (knock on wood it stays that way), which wasn't the case last year, and he is in much better state of mind. That is actually the most important thing for him - his mental stability because even slightly injured he can still compete and win like in 2011.

What was wrong with Nole last year?

 

[Billie]

Jelena is due at the end of October, maybe even later that that. So the tournaments in danger are Paris and WTF definitely, possibly those 2 in China, but I don't think all of them. Jelena feels great, after the honeymoon in Greece they spent a week in Belgrade and Nole has been practicing with Vajda in MC for 4-5 days.

Nole had neck/shoulder pain last year and had a minor surgery. He also had his private doctor traveling with him during last year's summer NAHC season.

 

[Moxie]

Do I think Federer can still win another major? Yes.

Could he do it going via Nadal? No.

Could he do it going via Djoker? Yes, but Djokovic is the favourite.

Could he do it going via Murray? Yes.

Much will depend on who's on the other side of the court. As long as he's still in contention at the business end of a major then he's always got a chance.

I would still prefer that Roger be drawn in the same half as Rafa at USO, due to
several reasons. If he is drawn with Novak, there is 99% chance that Roger will actually
face Novak in SF, assuming Roger reaches that far. On the other hand, if he is drawn
with Rafa, there is a considerably much less chance that Roger would have to actually
face Rafa in SF, again assuming that Roger reaches that far. So, I think overall it
increases Roger's chances of reaching final if he is drawn in the same half as Rafa.

Finally, this also gives one more chance for Novak to trip up and not face Roger.

Reasonable thought but I don't think Nole has much chance losing a semi at USO this year unless he plays Roger. Murray has a chance but probably not much of one. This means that Roger would still likely have to play Nole in the final anyways.

Roger isn't beating Nadal just like he isn't winning a 5th set vs. anyone good. The bad memories build up and it is something he clearly remembers. And the worse it gets the more unlikely it gets. Roger was Rafa's 2nd easiest match at AO this year, that says it all.

Agreed. Roger should hope not to draw Nadal. Roger won't beat Rafa, and hoping that Nadal flames out before the SF is a bad bet. If Roger had to face either Djokovic or Nadal, he's at least got a punter's chance against Novak. And then there would be the chance that Rafa doesn't make the final, which would be his best option, I'd think.

 

[nehmeth]

Roger isn't beating Nadal just like he isn't winning a 5th set vs. anyone good. The bad memories build up and it is something he clearly remembers. And the worse it gets the more unlikely it gets.

Roger won't beat Rafa, and hoping that Nadal flames out before the SF is a bad bet. If Roger had to face either Djokovic or Nadal, he's at least got a punter's chance against Novak. And then there would be the chance that Rafa doesn't make the final, which would be his best option, I'd think.

The last two times Roger met Novak in the U.S. Open (2010, 2011), he had a lot more than a punter's chance in both meetings.

His best chance is for Novak and Ralf not to make it past their opponent prior to meeting him in the draw. Facing Raonic, Dimitrov, Stan, or even Murray, I think would be preferable. Oh, and Berdych can't be in his quarter either. :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Jelena is due at the end of October, maybe even later that that. So the tournaments in danger are Paris and WTF definitely, possibly those 2 in China, but I don't think all of them. Jelena feels great, after the honeymoon in Greece they spent a week in Belgrade and Nole has been practicing with Vajda in MC for 4-5 days.

Nole had neck/shoulder pain last year and had a minor surgery. He also had his private doctor traveling with him during last year's summer NAHC season.

Hope he does not have to miss WTF too.

I think it is not a big deal if he misses something between USO and WTF.