US Open 2023 [Men] - Grand Slam

[MargaretMcAleer]

I don't think Ruud has been as much disappointing, as the tour putting him back where he belongs -- as a solid and consistent top 10 guy, but not a true elite. His impressive four big title finals last year was largely because of a "wobbly" tour. he was beating 2nd and 3rd tier guys, but always defeated by whatever elite player he faced: Nadal and Novak once each, and Alcaraz twice. I made a comp to Ferrer at some point - not necessarily his game, but his position on the tour. He's the place where the men are separated from the boys, but he's more the "elder boy" than the "younger man" (if that makes sense).

I agree with your comments regarding Ruud, as the tour putting him back where he belongs this year,, I take your point comparing him to Ferrer not his game, but his position on the tour.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Another asterisked tournament due to Nadal's absence...

 

[Kieran]

Don’t worry, Carlito will make sure that Djokovic doesn’t win number 24. We will see how Carlito matches up with Nadal when he returns from injury.

I don’t hold out much hope for Rafa when he returns, other than I hope he enjoys himself and retires on court and not in the doctors rooms.

I’d slightly have Novak favourite in New York, just simply because this is a new test for Carlos and we don’t know how he’ll handle the attempt to retain his title…

 

[kskate2]

I only watched the end of the Cincinnati final and even though Alcaraz lost, I think he's become the player to beat. Novak is a close second, so it is really 1a and 1b, but what I saw was a wily veteran out-witting a younger, and probably (now) slightly better young player. Novak is still great, but he's not the same player he was in 2011-16, maybe not even 2018-21. I just haven't seen him get into an indomitable rhythm since then, we see for periods of time from 2011-21. The current version is still all-time great level, but it isn't quite the GOAT level player we say in 2011-16 and for periods of 2018-21. Alcaraz is, right now, playing as good as garden variety all-time greats and maybe even creeping towards "lesser GOAT" level ala Sampras and Lendl (at least he's heading in that direction), so they're crossing paths on different trajectories, but I think Alcaraz is hungrier and has the slight edge over Novak going into the tournament. Just my opinion, of course.

Medvedev is the darkhorse, a more distant #3. I just don't think he's on the same level as those two. He's almost playing a Big Four era Andy Murray role. Sinner is probably next, though I'm still not certain he has the fortitude (physical and mental) to win a Slam. But he's still improving and a year from now he could be right there with Medvedev, at least. As for Holger Rune, I'd rank him 5th but don't think he is healthy enough--or quite good enough--to really challenge for the title. He's almost there, and I suspect he'll be there by this time next year, at least coeval with Medvedev. I still maintain he's of similar talent to Alcaraz, but still hasn't mastered his emotional game. At some point he's going to put it together and win a Slam and the rest of the tour will be on notice. I can see peak Holger going through spells of utter dominance, even vanquishing Alcaraz, but also with less consistency. But again, I don't think we're quite there yet.

After the "Big Two" and the "next three," it is a significant drop to the "2nd tier" pack: Zverev (who has played better the last few months), Tsitsipas, Ruud, Rublev, etc. But does anyone actually think any of these guys have a chance to win this slam? They'd have to play the best tournament of their life and still probably need some draw magic.

In a similar vein, Zverev and Tsitsipas are really reminding me of Tsonga and Berdych. I think Zverev at least reached a higher peak than those two, but they seem to have settled into a similar position on the tour and in the rankings, just slightly better. More like peak Davydenko or Soderling ("2nd tier+") - but not true elite players. To be elite, I think, you have to be a serious candidate in at least a Slam or two every year, and they've never really gotten there. Sinner too, but he still has room to grow and we may have seen the best of Zverev and Tsitsipas.

I think we have, but it doesn't stop them from consecutively playing the role of spoiler. They're ranked high enough that they could take out a young scalp on a good day in the R16 or the Qtrs

 

[Kieran]

Unbiased, I think Ruud vs. Tiafoe is a tossup. It's the most competitive quarter. I'll concede that Rune would have been the favorite there had he been healthy (and would give Djokovic fits). But with Rune not completely healthy, I look at Ruud and Tiafoe as co-favorites. If Ruud and Tiafoe played 10 times, most likely both players are winning 5 times. Tiafoe can't get a more favorable draw than this to defend his semifinal points.

What do you base your bias toward Tiafoe on? Even in comparison with Casper Ruud? Ruud is younger, has won more titles, been ranked higher, and made 3 slam finals.

Tiafoe has three 250 titles, and no pedigree in big matches this season, at all…

 

[Moxie]

What do you base your bias toward Tiafoe on? Even in comparison with Casper Ruud? Ruud is younger, has won more titles, been ranked higher, and made 3 slam finals.

Tiafoe has three 250 titles, and no pedigree in big matches this season, at all…

But isn't "bias toward" otherwise known as "fandom?" He likes Frances, so why not have faith in him? I like to see someone championing the lesser-lights. Plus, Frances does have a pretty good draw to go deep. He's done well at the USO, and he'll have huge crowd support. In solidarity with the Philly man, I picked Tiafoe over Ruud in my draw. I couldn't quite bring myself to pick him to beat Djokovic, however.

Speaking of the draw. I know it's already been said, but, working my way through it, the top half is ridiculously stacked, and the bottom is very light. Hard not to see Novak making the final. And, unlike Wimbledon, he played a tune-up. He won't be caught off-guard in the final this time.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Don’t worry, Carlito will make sure that Djokovic doesn’t win number 24. We will see how Carlito matches up with Nadal when he returns from injury.

Hmmm .I'm not sure that his conditioning will guarantee that prediction because he still have cramping issues..I needed Meddy in Novak's half darn it

 

[Moxie]

Hmmm .I'm not sure that his conditioning will guarantee that prediction because he still have cramping issues..I needed Meddy in Novak's half darn it

Take heart. First of all, it's been a mild August here in the Big Apple, so I don't expect it to be hot and humid by the final. Second of all, I don't know why you have more faith in Medvedev than in Alcaraz. Sure, I would like to have seen him in Novak's half, but he's a lesser bet. C) (yes, that's a joke,) Alcaraz is WAY more in Novak's game and his head than Medvedev is. Meddie can barely hold his own head together, let alone rent space in someone else's.

 

[El Dude]

 

[Moxie]

View attachment 8687

Dude...that meme was funny the first time you used it. This is the 3rd time. Also the weakest. I'm sure you can find another one.

Sure Rafa fans around here want Novak to lose the USO...that is no revelation. And Kieran has flat out said he doesn't think Rafa has another Major in him.

Curious to know what YOU want out of this US Open. I get the feeling that Alcaraz is still a little too akin to Nadal for you to wrap your arms around him. You've basically said that. So who would you like to see win? Another one for Novak? You did predict he'd come out on top, in the end. A surprise from Sinner? It doesn't feel like there are too many options, though the top half is loaded.

 

[El Dude]

Dude...that meme was funny the first time you used it. This is the 3rd time. Also the weakest. I'm sure you can find another one.

Sure Rafa fans around here want Novak to lose the USO...that is no revelation. And Kieran has flat out said he doesn't think Rafa has another Major in him.

Curious to know what YOU want out of this US Open. I get the feeling that Alcaraz is still a little too akin to Nadal for you to wrap your arms around him. You've basically said that. So who would you like to see win? Another one for Novak? You did predict he'd come out on top, in the end. A surprise from Sinner? It doesn't feel like there are too many options, though the top half is loaded.

Moxie, you remind me of a diehard Democrat or Republican who cannot fathom when people (such as myself) are sick of the partisan BS and don't support either part. I don't "want" anything out of the US Open. I am a fan of the sport itself, first and foremost. As a fan of tennis, I love Alcaraz and Rune and enjoy every player, to various degrees and in different ways. But in terms of who I want to win, with Federer out and without yet having imprinted on a new player, my first choice is always someone new. I like seeing new guys win, and enjoy when a new face wins their first and is considered a threat for a second.

As for who I think will win, I gave my assessment up-thread. I think it will probably either be Alcaraz or Novak (obviously), with Medvedev the darkhorse. Nothing controversial there. The next tier is a big step down: Sinner, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rune, etc. In an ideal world, I'd love to see one of those guys win. But among Alcaraz vs. Novak, I'm indifferent. On one hand, I like seeing Novak build his unsurpassed resume because it is just cool to see such an amazing career continue. On the other hand, I like seeing Alcaraz build his case for greatness at such a young age, and enjoy seeing the "shift of ages" that he's spearheading. But overall I'm ambivalent.

As for the meme, sounds like the lady doth protest too much. Imagine this forum from my perspective: every time I poke my head in, the usual suspects are bagging on Novak and/or worshipping at the throne of Nadal. There's some actual tennis talk thrown in, but endless Rafa fanboyism and Novak hating muddies it to the point that most times I poke my head in, I back out again. Or to use another meme...

 

[Jelenafan]

…I don’t hold out much hope for Rafa when he returns, other than I hope he enjoys himself and retires on court and not in the doctors rooms..

 

[the AntiPusher]

Take heart. First of all, it's been a mild August here in the Big Apple, so I don't expect it to be hot and humid by the final. Second of all, I don't know why you have more faith in Medvedev than in Alcaraz. Sure, I would like to have seen him in Novak's half, but he's a lesser bet. C) (yes, that's a joke,) Alcaraz is WAY more in Novak's game and his head than Medvedev is. Meddie can barely hold his own head together, let alone rent space in someone else's.

Cramping ISN'T Always due to the heat..it's a combination of nerves, the amounts of fluids a player looses and able to replenish as evident in the RG semis. Acourse Daniil game is not where Carlitos game is now but he has defeated Novak several times previously..How many players can say that is on their resume? I wanted Novak to have to go through Daniil and Carlos to be champion .

 

[Kieran]

But isn't "bias toward" otherwise known as "fandom?" He likes Frances, so why not have faith in him? I like to see someone championing the lesser-lights. Plus, Frances does have a pretty good draw to go deep. He's done well at the USO, and he'll have huge crowd support. In solidarity with the Philly man, I picked Tiafoe over Ruud in my draw. I couldn't quite bring myself to pick him to beat Djokovic, however.

Speaking of the draw. I know it's already been said, but, working my way through it, the top half is ridiculously stacked, and the bottom is very light. Hard not to see Novak making the final. And, unlike Wimbledon, he played a tune-up. He won't be caught off-guard in the final this time.

They’re not necessarily the same. A fan can be objective, and that’s basically what I asking for, since his post was “unbiased”. What’s the reason for picking Frances in these circumstances? There’s maybe a favourable draw and very good reasons to pick Frances to go deep - but there’s an equally good reason to say he might go out in round one. Because he’s not trending.

I’m just curious about what rationale people have when they make unlikely predictions…

 

[Kieran]

Cramping ISN'T Always due to the heat..it's a combination of nerves, the amounts of fluids a player looses and able to replenish as evident in the RG semis. Acourse Daniil game is not where Carlitos game is now but he has defeated Novak several times previously..How many players can say that is on their resume? I wanted Novak to have to go through Daniil and Carlos to be champion .

I think Danii would at least represent a speed bump for Novak, like you’re saying, he has previous. But that might have the effect of sharpening Novak up. At Wimbledon, he hasn’t had a challenging match in several years so when Carlos hit him, he wasn’t able for it. Novak also gets the privilege of starting a day earlier.

But looking at the potential draws, match by match, Carlos has it tougher. Usually the worst case scenario never happens, but a Sinner/Med combo before the final it tougher than the Rune/Med combo on grass. If Carlos is really up for this and not struggling like he was since Wimbledon, I think he’ll go into the final in his best form..

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, you remind me of a diehard Democrat or Republican who cannot fathom when people (such as myself) are sick of the partisan BS and don't support either part. I don't "want" anything out of the US Open. I am a fan of the sport itself, first and foremost. As a fan of tennis, I love Alcaraz and Rune and enjoy every player, to various degrees and in different ways. But in terms of who I want to win, with Federer out and without yet having imprinted on a new player, my first choice is always someone new. I like seeing new guys win, and enjoy when a new face wins their first and is considered a threat for a second.

As for who I think will win, I gave my assessment up-thread. I think it will probably either be Alcaraz or Novak (obviously), with Medvedev the darkhorse. Nothing controversial there. The next tier is a big step down: Sinner, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rune, etc. In an ideal world, I'd love to see one of those guys win. But among Alcaraz vs. Novak, I'm indifferent. On one hand, I like seeing Novak build his unsurpassed resume because it is just cool to see such an amazing career continue. On the other hand, I like seeing Alcaraz build his case for greatness at such a young age, and enjoy seeing the "shift of ages" that he's spearheading. But overall I'm ambivalent.

As for the meme, sounds like the lady doth protest too much. Imagine this forum from my perspective: every time I poke my head in, the usual suspects are bagging on Novak and/or worshipping at the throne of Nadal. There's some actual tennis talk thrown in, but endless Rafa fanboyism and Novak hating muddies it to the point that most times I poke my head in, I back out again. Or to use another meme...

View attachment 8688

You've made it clear how much you try not to be partisan. (Talk about protesting too much.) Hey, I gave you a hard time for using the same meme 3 times. You deserve that. Get a new meme.

And maybe you should "poke your head in" more often. There is plenty of conversation that isn't Novak-slagging and/Nadal worship. Frankly, there's not much to say about Nadal these days. And, yes, we do bag on Novak, but he makes such an easy target. Meantime, there's a big Sinner fan, Tiafoe fan, @tented has been bagging on Isner and now is celebrating that he's retiring. There's Rune to worry about. And LOTS of hating on the Clown Princes. With you gone, there's only AP to give heart to Felix, and even he's losing hope. Then there's Margaret, Keli and me still trying to cheerlead for Babycakes.

There's plenty going on that isn't all Alcaraz/Djokovic. And...Rafa, who? One thing going on is the USO draw. Brutally unbalanced. It's going to be another one of those Majors where it will be on-days and off-days for interesting matches, on the men's side. All of the action is going to be when the top half plays, I'm afraid, until the QFs, anyway.

And speaking of scandalous, I was looking into tickets to the USO. No freebies in my business, due to strikes, I guess. The nose-bleeds in Ashe are each about $180 for the cheapest! They were $30-$60 not that long ago. (OK, $30 was like 18 years ago, but still. It doesn't match the rate of inflation.) And I looked at grounds passes for next Thursday...$200 for two! I think these are resale tickets, but it's really a shame. I don't see how anyone can go to the USO anymore. At least grounds passes should be approachable.

 

[Moxie]

They’re not necessarily the same. A fan can be objective, and that’s basically what I asking for, since his post was “unbiased”. What’s the reason for picking Frances in these circumstances? There’s maybe a favourable draw and very good reasons to pick Frances to go deep - but there’s an equally good reason to say he might go out in round one. Because he’s not trending.

I’m just curious about what rationale people have when they make unlikely predictions…

Oh, gosh...I never thought we had to make rational predictions. I went with Tiafoe in my draw, v. Ruud, just for the fun of it!

No, I take your point that Philly guy is arguing, as if from a considered position, that Ruud and Tiafoe have the same chance in that potential QF, or whatever it is projected to be. Clearly, Tiafoe doesn't have the same pedigree, but I still think he's got some intangibles at the USO. It's not the wildest prediction. And why not go out on a limb for the guy you like?

 

[Kieran]

Oh, gosh...I never thought we had to make rational predictions. I went with Tiafoe in my draw, v. Ruud, just for the fun of it!

No, I take your point that Philly guy is arguing, as if from a considered position, that Ruud and Tiafoe have the same chance in that potential QF, or whatever it is projected to be. Clearly, Tiafoe doesn't have the same pedigree, but I still think he's got some intangibles at the USO. It's not the wildest prediction. And why not go out on a limb for the guy you like?

I agree with that but imagine if somebody constantly predicts greater things for a player than he’s capable of - isn’t it fine to ask what’s the basis of these predictions? What’s the thought process? I’m genuinely curious as to what people’s thought processes are in these things.

As for your prediction, I get that it’s based on easy draws, given how lousy both men are playing. These things can happen, despite their form. But Ruud is a lad with a pedigree, at least..

 

[El Dude]

You've made it clear how much you try not to be partisan. (Talk about protesting too much.) Hey, I gave you a hard time for using the same meme 3 times. You deserve that. Get a new meme.

And maybe you should "poke your head in" more often. There is plenty of conversation that isn't Novak-slagging and/Nadal worship. Frankly, there's not much to say about Nadal these days. And, yes, we do bag on Novak, but he makes such an easy target. Meantime, there's a big Sinner fan, Tiafoe fan, @tented has been bagging on Isner and now is celebrating that he's retiring. There's Rune to worry about. And LOTS of hating on the Clown Princes. With you gone, there's only AP to give heart to Felix, and even he's losing hope. Then there's Margaret, Keli and me still trying to cheerlead for Babycakes.

There's plenty going on that isn't all Alcaraz/Djokovic. And...Rafa, who? One thing going on is the USO draw. Brutally unbalanced. It's going to be another one of those Majors where it will be on-days and off-days for interesting matches, on the men's side. All of the action is going to be when the top half plays, I'm afraid, until the QFs, anyway.

And speaking of scandalous, I was looking into tickets to the USO. No freebies in my business, due to strikes, I guess. The nose-bleeds in Ashe are each about $180 for the cheapest! They were $30-$60 not that long ago. (OK, $30 was like 18 years ago, but still. It doesn't match the rate of inflation.) And I looked at grounds passes for next Thursday...$200 for two! I think these are resale tickets, but it's really a shame. I don't see how anyone can go to the USO anymore. At least grounds passes should be approachable.

You can give me a hard time for using the meme again, but...it is a funny meme and part of the fun of it is finding new contexts to use it. So preliminary trigger warning, Moxie: I'll probably use it again. Oh, and I use other memes.

I get that Novak can be...annoying. I used to detest his shirt-ripping. But I've also grown to appreciate him - for his perhaps unsurpassed ability on court, and also for his quirky and idiosyncratic views, some of which I share. But it is hard not to notice that there is a strong correlation between Rafa fans and Novak haters. In fact, it is probably almost 100%. I just find the endless partisan BS tedious. At some point shouldn't we appreciate all the greats, especially those--like the Big Three--who have brought us probably the greatest tennis in history?

Who knows, maybe some of the diehard anti-Novaxers will come to appreciate him after he's gone.

That's disheartening about the USO ticket prices and yet another symptom of the larger picture of more and more Americans being cut out of the "American Dream." I guess this is what happens when we spend all our money on war and our politicians serve banks and corporations and care more about imperialism than they do the actual citizenry. But that's for another forum...

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Looking forward to Muller vs Djokovic as Muller is undefeated against him.