Well. I'm conflicted. Because on the one hand, I don't think I see Wawrinka or Medvedev beating Fed. Not because Fed looks amazing. Though he's looked much better since the first two rounds. But because he always deals with Wawrinka well and Medvedev hasn't looked great... all the time. And while Fed can win not looking great the whole time. Medvedev hasn't proven that yet. Doesn't mean neither can beat him. But it does mean he's the favorite against both. I think it would take Stan a full 5 sets to take out Fed. He's looked solid so far. Looked great tonight against an apparently ailing Djokovic. But still. It's Fed. He's 3-23 vs Fed. Even now. It's just not likely. A different match up that he just does not thrive in. Fed neutralizes Stan better. And Stan can't attack Fed's backhand like Nadal or Djokovic can.
Medvedev may have a better chance because we're seeing how tough an out he is. Making the last 2 hard court masters finals before the US Open was not entirely surprising and a long time coming. He's played and won more hard court matches than anyone over the last 2 or 3 seasons I think. And he doesn't have the scar tissue against Fed that Stan does. Though he has yet to beat Fed in the three matches they've played. But. While Fed certainly doesn't play as much as Medvedev, on hard courts or otherwise. Fed has been the man to beat on hard courts, even with Djokovic back, since Fed's return in 2017. Furthermore, it's still Fed in best of 5. And it's just a different match up. That he hasn't shown too much success against yet.
But. Dimitrov first. If he's here. You can't count him out. He's got a chance. He's playing fairly well. But he got a walkover and has played virtually no one. But until Goffin, neither had Fed. Still. He's 0-7 against Fed. His chances just don't seem high.
But as bleak as all three of these men's record against Fed looks... I just keep waiting for all that to change. And while I don't think it looks like it's gonna be this week, it's gotta happen sometime. Upsets are upsets for a reason. Because they are a surprise. Is this the time? Do we get the first new grand slam finalist of the year in the year's last slam? And if we do, is it even from this side.
Maybe Nadal is more vulnerable than he looks and more vulnerable than Fed. I mean. The guys on his side do not have the pedigree of Dimitrov and Fed's possible semifinal opponent. Other than Cilic, who is the only one we know he has to play. And Nadal hasn't actually lost here since 2016 (4r, Pouille, 8-6 in 5th set tiebreak). But. The same thing applies to him that applies to Fed. Eventually the upsets start. It'll be a surprise. AND. Guys like Berrettini and Rublev are still actual surprises. They are relatively unknown. To everyone. And Nadal. Nadal will have done his homework for sure. But he hasn't played Berrettini and he's only played Rublev once. Here in 2017, he ended Rublev's first big stage taking run in the quarters. So does Rublev have the goods now? Does Cilic? Will La Monf surprise us and finally make his first grand slam final? Almost certainly not if he has to play Nadal. Are we STILL SLEEPING on Berrettini? Little Schwartzman is kickin again. Is Zverev finally playing well enough again to contend with and beat the best in the world? He has yet to beat Nadal. So not likely. But he's here. Had to grind. But did. And won. Even though he's been struggling all year, against most of the field he's a tough out. Can he translate that to success against Nadal? He hasn't played him on hard courts since the AO in 2017. A match he took to 5 sets. And well. That brings up the rub. Even if any of these guys can surprise Nadal in the first set. He'll likely tag back in the second and probably win the match even if he has to go 5. Same old story. Beating him in 5 sets has just been near impossible if your name isn't Djokovic or Federer (and it isn't Wimbledon). (And I swear... if ol' Andujar upsets La Monf, which seems quite possible because La Monf is always injured, and then comes through to the semis by luck or by grinding out a 5 setter against Rublev or Berrettini, I'm gonna be SO FRIGGIN happy for him. It'd be the feel good story of the year.)
So I don't know whether I believe we're on a collision course for Federer and Nadal in the final. A match we've all been waiting for their entire careers. Their first US Open meeting. I'm inclined to think that if one of them isn't going to get there, it's gonna be Fed. That's how it's been of late. But really.... only at the US Open last year and the AO this year. Since then, he's been straight gold. Until Rublev in Cincy 3 weeks ago. So I just don't know.