I thought he had a good chance against Nadal in 2010 simply because of the surface. It wasn't as slow in 2010 as it is now - even though it was slower than than it was in 2008 and 2009. I find it ironic that the US Open chose to slow down the court after Roger won 5 years in a row - and he's never won it again. There's definitely something to the fact that the court is slower than in his heyday that gets in Roger's head. He commented again this year that it was playing like a clay court and I couldn't help but thing - then you might as well have played the French Open!
Anyway...it's going to be interesting to see what the rest of the year brings for Roger. He's definitely having some kind of a mental block with his backhand and his game in general. I think it took at lot of him mentally to get back to #1 in Feb - cuz his game has just not been there mentally for the last 6 months. Just stupid mistakes and shots that even I can see coming from a mile away.
He wasn't playing well in 2010 and Rafa was really amazing that tournament, even I can admit that. Roger was playing better in 2011 and Rafa was worse, of course with the matchup and Rafa being totally in his head at the time id still have pegged Nadal as the slight favorite but it'd have been pretty close to 50-50 IMO.
I can believe they slowed it down because most of the tour has gotten slower and slower. Unfortunately Roger's strengths are on the wrong side of things at this point, the tournament directors like long rallies and all around wars of attrition for whatever reason.
I'm hoping like hell he sits out the rest of the year. I don't think he's hurt at all but he could easily say his back or knee is hurting and sit out. He looks more mentally burned out than physically. I think that was an underrated part of his resurgence last year, it was probably really good mentally to be off the tour for 6 months after basically playing non-stop for over 15 years.