Upset Corner - Wimbledon 2018 Edition

[GameSetAndMath]

This is your one-stop place to discuss upsets; projected, happening live as well as done & dusted ones.
Primary purpose is to alert other people so that they can catch upsets as they happen live (sort of like NFL Red Zone Channel). I will leave it up to you to determine whether something is considered an upset or not (ranking positions need not be the only criteria).

Let us begin by projecting some upsets once the Monday's schedule comes out.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are three potential upsets (of seeded players) on the opening day. Confidence level is shown in parentheses.

1. Coric might get upset by Medvedev. (51%)
2. Pouille might get upset by D. Kudla (60%)
3. Meyer might get upset by Struff. (80%)


Here are couple of false alarms. But, the matches should be interesting.

a. Gasquet will not be upset by Monfils.
b. Grigor will not be upset by Stan.

 

[britbox]

Here are three potential upsets (of seeded players) on the opening day. Confidence level is shown in parentheses.

1. Coric might get upset by Medvedev. (51%)
2. Pouille might get upset by D. Kudla (60%)
3. Meyer might get upset by Struff. (80%)


Here are couple of false alarms. But, the matches should be interesting.

a. Gasquet will not be upset by Monfils.
b. Grigor will not be upset by Stan.

Do you mean that you give Struff an 80/20 chance of winning with those confidence stats?

 

[Moxie]

I know this won't be big on everyone's radar, but Nicolas Jarry (66) just beat Filip Krajinovic (30). Our friend @mrzz is a supporter of the young Chilean, I think, and he seems to be too busy to post much these day, so I mention it on his behalf.

 

[Horsa]

I know this won't be big on everyone's radar, but Nicolas Jarry (66) just beat Filip Krajinovic (30). Our friend @mrzz is a supporter of the young Chilean, I think, and he seems to be too busy to post much these day, so I mention it on his behalf.

That's very kind of you. I hope Mrzz is o.k. too & miss him as I think he's 1 of the most interesting people on here & can both give & take a joke. I really enjoy reading his stuff as I think he's got such a captivating way of writing. It hauls you in, keeps you interested & leaves you wanting more.

 

[herios]

I know this won't be big on everyone's radar, but Nicolas Jarry (66) just beat Filip Krajinovic (30). Our friend @mrzz is a supporter of the young Chilean, I think, and he seems to be too busy to post much these day, so I mention it on his behalf.

I think is worth mentioning in Krajinovic's defense, that he played here his first match after being out for most of this year. But good win by Jarry nonetheless

 

[herios]

Here are three potential upsets (of seeded players) on the opening day. Confidence level is shown in parentheses.

1. Coric might get upset by Medvedev. (51%)
2. Pouille might get upset by D. Kudla (60%)
3. Meyer might get upset by Struff. (80%)


Here are couple of false alarms. But, the matches should be interesting.

a. Gasquet will not be upset by Monfils.
b. Grigor will not be upset by Stan.

You are pretty good, got 2 out of 3, as both Coric and Mayer got bounced.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Do you mean that you give Struff an 80/20 chance of winning with those confidence stats?

Yes.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Grigor trailing 1-2 in sets. Dude seriously lacks confidence.

 

[herios]

Grigor trailing 1-2 in sets. Dude seriously lacks confidence.

You misfired on this one and on Richey, the former SF.
2 more upsets in the books

 

[monfed]

Coric babyfed out. now if sela can do his job then this thread is money

 

[Denis]

lol @ babyfed.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You misfired on this one and on Richey, the former SF.
2 more upsets in the books

Yep, what I though of as false alarms turned out to be real upsets.

Five upsets on a single day! That is good competition with WTA which saw 6 upsets today :lulz2:

1. Grigor [6] taken out by Man
2. Coric [16] taken out by Medvedev and that too in straight sets.
3. Gasquet [23] taken out by La Monf in straight sets.
4. Krajinovic [28] ousted by Jarry
5. L. Meyer[32] shown the door by Struff.

p.s. Grigor should commit suicide. Just a few days back someone who had not played for an year and who does not have a hip, beat Stan, but Grigor could not. Further, Stan generally sucks on grass also.

 

[Moxie]

^ I will say, though, that I considered Mayer v. Struff to be a coin flip, when I was doing my draw. (I think I went with Mayer, though.)

 

[herios]

There was another upset today which did not involve a seeded player.
Bemelmans, ranked 104 defeated Johnson ranked 42.

 

[Moxie]

There was another upset today which did not involve a seeded player.
Bemelmans, ranked 104 defeated Johnson ranked 42.

I'm glad you mentioned that one. That was a heart-breaker for Johnson. 8-6 in the 5th.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Here are three potential upsets (of seeded players) on the opening day. Confidence level is shown in parentheses.

1. Coric might get upset by Medvedev. (51%)
2. Pouille might get upset by D. Kudla (60%)
3. Meyer might get upset by Struff. (80%)


Here are couple of false alarms. But, the matches should be interesting.

a. Gasquet will not be upset by Monfils.
b. Grigor will not be upset by Stan.

4/5 upsets materialized. Not bad, GSM. I give you credit, even for the last two, although you doubted them.
I consider False-b the biggest ATP upset of the first day. I think very few people here are rooted for the upsettee, while some (including myself) may feel sentiment to the upsetter (Stan) who, already with this win inched back from the brink. Two, three more wins here and he's back in contention to the top 100 or so. A repeat of that in Montreal/Cincy and the dreaded scenario of him having trouble qualifying into USO main draw, is gone.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are my upset projections for Day 2, listed in order of my confidence.

1. Alex De Minaur will oust seed #29 Marco Cecchinato, the Cindrella of RG.
2. Khachanov will defeat Ferrer (both unseeded though).
3. J. Chardy will oust seed #26 Shapo
4. Tiafoe will show the door for #30 Verdasco.

As I learnt my lesson yesterday, I am no longer going to project false alarms (upsets projected in media by pundits that I don't agree with).

 

[Moxie]

^ All of those are very possible, and I don't think any would be called a shock. I called 3 & 4 as ones to watch tomorrow on the other thread. Would anyone be shocked if Khachanov beat Ferrer? I'm not sure of their rankings, relatively, but I doubt it. As to #1, I'd almost think De Minaur would be the one upset, given his hype. And Cecchinato is perfectly positioned to be the guy with good clay results who bombs early on grass.

And what about Ebden v Goffin...no feel for an upset there?

 

[Moxie]

BTW, Ferrer is ranked 37 and Khachanov 40. I think we've asked this before, but can players ranked that closely actually "upset" each other? We all know this thread is about big upsets and discussing them. But what constitutes a "minor upset?" 20+ points in rankings difference? General perception between the 2 players? In either case, I don't think Khachanov v Ferrer qualifies, however it shakes out. How does it qualify in your grading?