Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[tented]

For some, it is little bit mysterious, see Milos for example.

I see what you mean now. I stopped after looking at the first few guys, because they were consistent.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

For some, it is little bit mysterious, see Milos for example.

I see what you mean now. I stopped after looking at the first few guys, because they were consistent.

The funny thing is his points in ATP website are higher than that in the live rankings page.
This kind of error should never happen in race points. As live rankings is little ahead, the race
points of any player in live ranking is supposed to be higher than that in ATP website.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After today's loss against Ferrer, Murray went back a step and is now in position 10.
Clock is ticking on him with just three weeks of tourneys before WTF. Will he right
the ship in time?

He probably needs to take a wild cared in Vienna and then go to Valencia instead of
Basel (which is a crowded place with Rog, Rafa, Stan, Grigor, Milos and JMDP in it).

 

[herios]

After today's loss against Ferrer, Murray went back a step and is now in position 10.
Clock is ticking on him with just three weeks of tourneys before WTF. Will he right
the ship in time?

He probably needs to take a wild cared in Vienna and then go to Valencia instead of
Basel (which is a crowded place with Rog, Rafa, Stan, Grigor, Berdych).

What is he superman to play 6 weeks in a row?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You are right six weeks in a row is too much. Besides, even if he qualifies
by working that hard and make it to WTF, he will be beat down by everybody
once he gets there.

Also, Andy has not signed up even for Basel/Valencia.

He might even decide to throw in the towel and just play Bercy.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Bummer, the two folks that I am rooting for, Andy and Grigor, are at the bottom of the
list of contenders with just three weeks to go. The outlook does not look promising for
either one, barring a miracle like winning Bercy outright.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

grigor is playing Stockholm next week where he is defending champion.

 

[Bounce It !!]

Bummer, the two folks that I am rooting for, Andy and Grigor, are at the bottom of the
list of contenders with just three weeks to go. The outlook does not look promising for
either one, barring a miracle like winning Bercy outright.

I too am disappointed for Grigor, he's had a great year. I hope he can at least salvage a top 10 finish. As to Andy, not so much, just not one of my favorites. I do think it will take until 2015 for Andy to get his game back.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It does not help Murray too much play an ATP 250 next week. This is because even if
he does well there and wins it, all the 250 points will not count towards race. This is because
he has played too many tournaments and so if he enters and wins next week's ATP 250,
it would serve as a replace for Rotterdam where he got 90 points. So, his maximum gain
would only be 160 points.

In view of that he is better off skipping next week's 250 events and instead
try to do well in the 500 event of the following week. Also, he should shy away
from Basel and go to Valencia (where only Ferrer can beat him )

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Bummer, the two folks that I am rooting for, Andy and Grigor, are at the bottom of the
list of contenders with just three weeks to go. The outlook does not look promising for
either one, barring a miracle like winning Bercy outright.

I too am disappointed for Grigor, he's had a great year. I hope he can at least salvage a top 10 finish. As to Andy, not so much, just not one of my favorites. I do think it will take until 2015 for Andy to get his game back.

Well, it would be nice to have contrasting styles in action at WTF and that was the
primary reason I wanted Murray also there.

 

[herios]

Bummer, the two folks that I am rooting for, Andy and Grigor, are at the bottom of the
list of contenders with just three weeks to go. The outlook does not look promising for
either one, barring a miracle like winning Bercy outright.

I too am disappointed for Grigor, he's had a great year. I hope he can at least salvage a top 10 finish. As to Andy, not so much, just not one of my favorites. I do think it will take until 2015 for Andy to get his game back.

Well, it would be nice to have contrasting styles in action at WTF and that was the
primary reason I wanted Murray also there.

Milos has a contrasting style to any of the other top 10 players, therefore you SHOULD like him

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. You got me. I don't want that much of a contrast. He has a contrasting hair style too.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Shanghai is over, at least for the contenders for the remaining slots in WTF, and so I am updating the situation about race points. This will officially released on Monday, the 13th October.

As said before, for all practical purposes, we have two slots open ( Novak, Rafa and Roger officially qualified, Stan and Kei are almost shoe in and Cilic has inside route) with five contenders vying for them. Their points and the point diff from the guy immediately above them are shown below.

1. Tomas Berdych CZE 3945
2. Milos Raonic CAN 3735 ------ 210
3. David Ferrer ESP 3715 ------ 20
4. Andy Murray GBR 3655 ----- 60
5. Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3450 --- 205

Basically, less than 500 points separating these five guys and so anything can happen.
However, as you can see from the point difference above, it looks like Berdych is beginning
to distance himself from others and Dimitrov is also beginning to distance himself from
others, though in the wrong direction. So, it appears at this time that Berdych will
make it and Grigor will miss the cut (although it is completely mathematically possible for Berdych to not make the cut and for Grigor to make the cut when the dust settles). Assuming this,
there is a real fight for the last slot among Raonic, Ferrer and Murray with a mere
80 points separating these three. That is toooooooooooooooo close to call.

All these five contenders are in action in the indoor ATP 250 tournaments of next week:
Raonic in Moscow, Berdych and Grigor in Stockholm, Ferrer and Murray in Vienna.
Cilic is also in Moscow, but he has already qualified via the inside route. The following
week Grigor and Milos are playing in Basel 500 and the other three contenders viz., Berdych,
Ferrer, and Murray are playing in Valencia 500. Finally, everybody will be in the mandatory Bercy 1000.

I think this is probably the closely contested race at least in recent times
that I can remember off the top of my head.

 

[El Dude]

A couple things that have come to the fore from Shanghai. One, Roger is almost certainly going to be in the top 2, with Rafa dropping to 3. Here's the race rankings for the top 3:

1. Djokovic 9010
2. Federer 8020
3. Nadal 6745

Now Roger has a slim chance of stealing #1 from Novak. As far as I can tell, they both have a max of 3000 points for the rest of the year - Basel/Valencia (500), Paris (1000), and World Tour Finals (1200 or 1500), but it seems that Novak is playing in Basel or Valencia, so his max total is 2500 and Roger's 3000. This evens out Novak's participation at the China Open.

Its hard to imagine Roger out-playing Novak so significantly that he'll get 1000 more points, even with the extra ATP 500, but we also have to factor in Novak's impending fatherhood. If Roger wins Basel, the gap is narrowed to 500ish points so this could be close. The up-shot is that Paris might actually matter significantly this year, and Roger and Novak might both be really gunning for the title.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Finally, ATP has officially recognized that Stan Wawrinka has qualified for the WTF. Congrats ATP. snigger

 

[GameSetAndMath]

A couple things that have come to the fore from Shanghai. One, Roger is almost certainly going to be in the top 2, with Rafa dropping to 3. Here's the race rankings for the top 3:

1. Djokovic 9010
2. Federer 8020
3. Nadal 6745

Now Roger has a slim chance of stealing #1 from Novak. As far as I can tell, they both have a max of 3000 points for the rest of the year - Basel/Valencia (500), Paris (1000), and World Tour Finals (1200 or 1500), but it seems that Novak is playing in Basel or Valencia, so his max total is 2500 and Roger's 3000. This evens out Novak's participation at the China Open.

Its hard to imagine Roger out-playing Novak so significantly that he'll get 1000 more points, even with the extra ATP 500, but we also have to factor in Novak's impending fatherhood. If Roger wins Basel, the gap is narrowed to 500ish points so this could be close. The up-shot is that Paris might actually matter significantly this year, and Roger and Novak might both be really gunning for the title.

Of course, Novak is still the leading contender to finish as YE #1. But, Roger's chances
are not as slim as you think in view of the following.

1. There is a chance that Novak might be forced to miss Bercy even though it is currently
in his schedule. If that happens, Roger may even surpass Novak in race points at
the end of Bercy as Roger will add his Basel (out of 500) and Bercy (out of 1000)
points and Novak will not add anything. Novak's lead is only 990 in race.
Of course, to do so he either needs to win Bercy outright or win Basel and
reach the finals of Bercy.

2. Assuming Novak is forced to miss Bercy, he will be playing in WTF after three
weeks gap. He may be mentally and physically rusty when he comes back.
Besides, WTF is not like grand slams where you can play up to form. One
needs to be sharp right from the beginning. Also, just merely winning the
RR matches may not be enough. One needs to win them efficiently as well.
If thee players in Novak's group are tied with 2 wins each, the two with
more sets won (or more games won in case there is a tie for the sets as well)
will get to advance to the semifinals. So, being rusty might actually can
cost an SF spot.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Shanghai is over, at least for the contenders for the remaining slots in WTF, and so I am updating the situation about race points. This will officially released on Monday, the 13th October.

As said before, for all practical purposes, we have two slots open ( Novak, Rafa and Roger officially qualified, Stan and Kei are almost shoe in and Cilic has inside route) with five contenders vying for them. Their points and the point diff from the guy immediately above them are shown below.

1. Tomas Berdych CZE 3945
2. Milos Raonic CAN 3735 ------ 210
3. David Ferrer ESP 3715 ------ 20
4. Andy Murray GBR 3655 ----- 60
5. Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3450 --- 205

Basically, less than 500 points separating these five guys and so anything can happen.
However, as you can see from the point difference above, it looks like Berdych is beginning
to distance himself from others and Dimitrov is also beginning to distance himself from
others, though in the wrong direction. So, it appears at this time that Berdych will
make it and Grigor will miss the cut (although it is completely mathematically possible for Berdych to not make the cut and for Grigor to make the cut when the dust settles). Assuming this,
there is a real fight for the last slot among Raonic, Ferrer and Murray with a mere
80 points separating these three. That is toooooooooooooooo close to call.

With only three weeks of indoor tournaments left and all five contenders playing in all three weeks, I was looking at the career record in indoor matches of the contenders. Murray (76.4%) is at the top of the list with Raonic (75.9%) following fairly closely. Grigor (60.9%), Berdych (60.5%) and Ferrer (59.0%) are way down the list in that order.

On the other hand, if you look at the 52 week record in indoor matches Grigor (76.9%) head the list of contenders followed by Murray (66.7%), Milos (66.7%), Berdych (64.7%) and Ferrer (62.5%)

Looked from this view point it looks like Ferrer will surely miss the bus being last
in both the lists and two of the other folks would make it.You can draw your own conclusions
as to who will get the remaining two slots.

 

[tented]

If Roger finishes the year No. 1, he will be the first player to do without having won a major that year since McEnroe, in 1982. (Connors did it twice: 1975 & 1977.)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Roger finishes the year No. 1, he will be the first player to do without having won a major that year since McEnroe, in 1982. (Connors did it twice: 1975 & 1977.)

He leads the tour in the following categories in 2014: matches played (71), mathes won (61),
top 10 wins (13), Appearances in Finals (9), hard court wins (45) and ATP 1000 matches wins (26).

 

[tented]

If Roger finishes the year No. 1, he will be the first player to do without having won a major that year since McEnroe, in 1982. (Connors did it twice: 1975 & 1977.)

He leads the tour in matches played (71), mathes won (61), top 10 wins (13),
appearances in finals (9), hard court wins() and Masters wins ().

Sure, he's no Caroline Wozniacki; he only ends the year like her.



Obviously I'm simply pointing out the rarity of an ATP player finishing the year No. 1 without having won a major that year. If Federer ends No. 1, then he will have earned it -- same as I said about Wozniacki. They don't set the rules, they only follow them.