Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[Front242]

I expect Raonic to beat Nishikori in Tokyo but even so they should both make it imo as they're well ahead on points. Yes, Kei's the local hero in Tokyo but he had a much tougher semi and has lower back and leg pain now so it'll be tough if Milos plays like he did against Simon and if he serves well. I'd like to see Dimitrov make the WTF too but I don't think he will. A lot is riding on Murray v Djokovic if they meet in the Shanghai QF. If Djokovic wins again and the others get to the same stage or better that's really gonna make it tough for him to qualify but he may beat Djokovic next time, who knows. Maybe yes, maybe no. Novak wants to retain number 1 too so he'll be very focused.

 

[herios]

I will not predict anything, because a lot can still happen. I just keep fingers crossed that Milos will make it. I know this is not a popular choice, but I could care less.
Tonight he can grab 200 points. Ajde

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Interestingly, Murray has neither signed up for Basel nor for Valencia. 5 of the top 10
players are playing in Basel and 3 of the top 10 players are playing in Valencia. 2 have not
signed up. They are Novak and Berdych. (in case you are wondering, no I did not make
an arithmetic error. Andy is not in top 10).

While Novak will not play that week, I believe Andy and Berdych will ask for a
wild card from one of the two torunaments and will get it. If they have sense, they
should ask for wild card from Valencia which has a weaker fied. Basel is loaded
with Roger, Rafa, Stan, Milos and Grigor. Valencia only has Kei, Ferrer and Cilic.

 

[Bounce It !!]

Poor David Ferrer. He's actually had a great career, but has just been overmatched in finals of big tournaments - in Slams (0-1), WTF (0-1) and Masters (1-6) he's a total of 1-8 in finals.

He's been solid in ATP 500s (7-9) and pretty good in ATP 250s (13-7), but he's clearly a player who has accrued a bunch of titles by being consistently very good, but not great. I think you could make an argument that Ferrer has the best career of any player not to win a Slam (mind you, not the best player).

No way. We had a SHEEP (Slamless Heroic Everlasting Excellent Player) thread discussing
specifically this. Davydenko and Nalbandian are the two prime contenders from the players
of recent times for this award. Davydenko has actually won a WTF and won two Masters.
I think the same applied to Nalby too. Ferrer's results do not come close to it. Ferrer has
won only one Masters, where as these guys have won two. Also, these guys have actually
won WTF.

I think you're being hyperbolic, GSaM, especially if we take my specific words--" I think you could make an argument that Ferrer has the best career of any player not to win a Slam." Look beyond titles - Ferrer has done much better at Slams, much better year in and year out, certainly than Davydenko but also (arguably) than Nalbandian. Compare their Slam records, for instance:

Ferrer: 1 F, 5 SF, 9 QF
Davydenko: 0 F, 4 SF, 6 QF
Nalbandian: 1 F, 4 SF, 5 QF

Ferrer's records at Slams is better. Or look at titles won:

WTF/Masters/500/250

Ferrer: 0/1/7/13
Davydenko: 1/3/1/16
Nalbandian: 1/2/1/7

Davydenko and Nalbandian--as you point out--had more wins at WTF and Masters, but David was better at lesser tournaments.

There are other factors, though, and it really would require an in-depth study. But again, I didn't say he WAS, but that an argument could be made - and I stand by that.

Ferrer has 21 doubles titles, and made $24 Million being David Ferrer. Not bad for the 2nd tier.clapclap

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nobody said Ferrer is a bad player or anything like that. Only assertion being made is that
he is not a contender for SHEEP, the best player not to have won a slam.

Ferrer surely cannot be accused of not making good use of his talent. I think he did
as best as anyone with that talent level could do.

 

[Front242]

Marcelo Ríos would have to be in the SHEEP discussion having reached world number 1 and won 5 masters. Ferrer has just the Paris masters to his name in terms of big titles compared to Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome and Hamburg for Ríos. I see from Wiki also that he was the first player to win all three clay-court ATP Masters Series since the format started in 1990.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After the finals of Beijing and Tokyo, here is the current situation that will be officially
released tomorrow, Monday, the 6th of October. There are three open spots in WTF
(Novak, Rafa, Fed and Stan have qualified by virtue of accumulating enough points
and Cilic has qualified by virtue of winning USO). There are six contenders.
I am listing them below along with their race points. I am also listing the point difference
so that you can quickly see as to how tight the race is.

1. Kei Nishikori JPN 4265
2. Tomas Berdych CZE 3775 ----- 490
3. Milos Raonic CAN 3735 ----- 40
4. Andy Murray GBR 3575 ----- 160
5. David Ferrer ESP 3545 ---- 30
6. Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3415 --- 30

As you can see Kei has really distanced himself from other contenders and so is probably
virtually certain to make it to London (barring a complete collapse of his glass house body).

That leaves only two spots open with five contenders. As you can see mere 40 points
separate Berdych and Raonic and mere 30 points each separate Murray from Ferrer and
Ferrer and Dimitrov. So, these last two spots can really go to any of these folks considering
there are two ATP 1000 and two ATP 500 events (not to mention the three ATP 250 events)
need to be played before the WTF.

It has now become certain that the two long shot candidates that we had before
(Tsonga and Gulbis) have no chance anymore to make it to WTF.

 

[Front242]

^ Plus Gulbis is injured now (shoulder) too so he can't even play and according to isabelle so is Tsonga but no idea what his injury is.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Plus Gulbis is injured now (shoulder) too so he can't even play and according to isabelle so is Tsonga but no idea what his injury is.

1. I don't know what is the specific injury with Tsonga, but he is not playing in Shanghai.
Monfils is also not playing in Shanghai and I think he said it was knee injury.
Now, these two are supposed to be the leading lights of France in DC finals.

2. Contrary to what you say, Gulbis is playing and is in the draw in Shanghai.
He may meet Rafa in QF, if he manages to win against Milos in R16.

 

[Front242]

Good to hear Ernie's ok. Hope he wins a few matches. He's always entertaining.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Marcelo Ríos would have to be in the SHEEP discussion having reached world number 1 and won 5 masters. Ferrer has just the Paris masters to his name in terms of big titles compared to Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome and Hamburg for Ríos. I see from Wiki also that he was the first player to win all three clay-court ATP Masters Series since the format started in 1990.

Marcel Rios probably definitely has better achievements than both Davy and Nalby (not to
mention Ferrer). Rios has reached #1 ranking, he has won Grand Slam Cup (old version
of WTF) and has won 5 Masters at different and important places.

I personally have not watched any of his matches and so cannot comment anything
on his play beyond what is said by the numbers above.

I looked at his Wiki page; boy, he sounds very controversial. He seems to be involved
in a plethora of controversies everything ranging from speeding ticket to dropping wife
from a moving car.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is considerable discrepancy in the race points of various players between ATP site
version and the live ranking version. Clearly, one of them is wrong as the points should
between these two versions are supposed to be identical at the beginning of a new tournament.

One thing folks should keep in mind is that even in ATP race points, not all points earned
this year are to be added. There is a limit of 18 tournaments and apart from the requirement
that points earned in GSs and other mandatory tournaments cannot be substituted by
points won in other tournaments (even if they are higher).

I don't have time to figure out who is wrong, but ATP is safer to trust than live rankings.

 

[tented]

There is considerable discrepancy in the race points of various players between ATP site
version and the live ranking version. Clearly, one of them is wrong as the points should
between these two versions are supposed to be identical at the beginning of a new tournament.

One thing folks should keep in mind is that even in ATP race points, not all points earned
this year are to be added. There is a limit of 18 tournaments and apart from the requirement
that points earned in GSs and other mandatory tournaments cannot be substituted by
points won in other tournaments (even if they are higher).

I don't have time to figure out who is wrong, but ATP is safer to trust than live rankings.

The Live Rankings site always makes adjustments at the beginning of a tournament (i.e., taking away the previous year's points, adding first-round points for this week's tournament), whereas the ATP site always waits until a tournament is over before making adjustments.

For example, the Live site lists the top players' points exactly 10 points higher than the ATP site. The former has already added the 10 points they will receive for the first round of Shanghai, while the latter won't add them until next week.

 

[Front242]

Marcelo Ríos would have to be in the SHEEP discussion having reached world number 1 and won 5 masters. Ferrer has just the Paris masters to his name in terms of big titles compared to Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome and Hamburg for Ríos. I see from Wiki also that he was the first player to win all three clay-court ATP Masters Series since the format started in 1990.

Marcel Rios probably definitely has better achievements than both Davy and Nalby (not to
mention Ferrer). Rios has reached #1 ranking, he has won Grand Slam Cup (old version
of WTF) and has won 5 Masters at different and important places.

I personally have not watched any of his matches and so cannot comment anything
on his play beyond what is said by the numbers above.

I looked at his Wiki page; boy, he sounds very controversial. He seems to be involved
in a plethora of controversies everything ranging from speeding ticket to dropping wife
from a moving car.

Yeah, bit of a loon alright!

 

[Kieran]

Rios was...odd. He had immense skill, but he wasn't a big bloke. Very naturally gifted and he's the first player I ever saw hit the leaping two-hand backhand.

The GS Cup was different to the WTF, it was a strange and temporary construct, not recognised by the ATP. The WTF was played back then, under one of its previous names, so you had both. Sampras was the only man to win both, in 1997...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The GS cup was the "WTF" organized by ITF. There was also a "WTF" organized by ATP.
They both got merged into one about 10 years ago.

ATP did not recognize the GS Cup. However, GS cup was paying lot more money and
I think more prestigious when both were there.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is considerable discrepancy in the race points of various players between ATP site
version and the live ranking version. Clearly, one of them is wrong as the points should
between these two versions are supposed to be identical at the beginning of a new tournament.

One thing folks should keep in mind is that even in ATP race points, not all points earned
this year are to be added. There is a limit of 18 tournaments and apart from the requirement
that points earned in GSs and other mandatory tournaments cannot be substituted by
points won in other tournaments (even if they are higher).

I don't have time to figure out who is wrong, but ATP is safer to trust than live rankings.

The Live Rankings site always makes adjustments at the beginning of a tournament (i.e., taking away the previous year's points, adding first-round points for this week's tournament), whereas the ATP site always waits until a tournament is over before making adjustments.

For example, the Live site lists the top players' points exactly 10 points higher than the ATP site. The former has already added the 10 points they will receive for the first round of Shanghai, while the latter won't add them until next week.

I am aware of the fundamental differences that you are mentioning. But, I believe there are
differences even after accounting for that. I am talking about race points (where the removal
of old points do not come into picture). As live rankings add instantaneously (as and when
players progress from one round to another) and ATP updates only at the end of the week,
they both are supposed to be the same (race points) at the end of the week. I will
investigate further if and when I get some time.

 

[Kieran]

It was definitely prestigious, it caught all the big names, but I never considered it as being anything other than an attempt at usurping. The WTF - as we have it now - existed then, and under the same qualifying criteria. From memory, the GS cup was to do with results in the majors.

There was a hullabaloo and razzmatazz about it, tv channels lapped it up, but it was never a proper year end event, as opposed to the actual WTF (which may have been known as The World Championships then, or whatever).

But I agree with your point, the ITF organised it as such, and it carried more weight in coin than anything else...

 

[tented]

^ I'm talking about the difference between this ATP page:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

and this Live Rankings page:

http://live-tennis.eu/race

The ATP page lists Djokovic as having 8,650 points. The Live Rankings page lists him as having 8,660 points. It has already added the 10 points for the first round of Shanghai, hence "Live Rankings", whereas the ATP site won't add any points until next week.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ I'm talking about the difference between this ATP page:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

and this Live Rankings page:

http://live-tennis.eu/race

The ATP page lists Djokovic as having 8,650 points. The Live Rankings page lists him as having 8,660 points. It has already added the 10 points for the first round of Shanghai, hence "Live Rankings", whereas the ATP site won't add any points until next week.

For most, that is the only difference and that difference is understood. For some, it is
little bit mysterious, see Milos for example.