The Slam Race - Who are you Buying/Selling?

[Moxie]

These losses have become a bad habit. I still contend he only won the USO against Novak because the latter was so caught up in the CYGS hype he lost it mentally. (We saw the same thing happen to Serena and the Bryan Brothers, when they were also on the cusp of this rare achievement, only to falter near the finish line.) But when Novak wasn’t distracted, he beat Daniil in straight sets. The Russian has now lost two major finals after being up 2-0. He had all the momentum going into the fifth against Rafa at the USO. Yet he lost all of them. It’s telling he doesn’t have what it takes to finish these finals.

Medvedev's loss in 2019 to Rafa was a lot about it being his maiden voyage, and Rafa letting him back in. Arguably, Rafa should have won it in straights. The fifth set was still hard-fought. No shame losing to an ATG.

While I take your point about what happened to Novak in 2021, including opting for the Olympic Games, Medvedev had a game plan for that final, and he executed it. But I'm rather with you that, circumstances being different, not sure that Meddie would have won that final.

Medvedev may be not that different from Tsitsipas and Zverev, except that he got lucky, in the timing. I'd like to think so, though.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Medvedev's loss in 2019 to Rafa was a lot about it being his maiden voyage, and Rafa letting him back in. Arguably, Rafa should have won it in straights. The fifth set was still hard-fought. No shame losing to an ATG.

While I take your point about what happened to Novak in 2021, including opting for the Olympic Games, Medvedev had a game plan for that final, and he executed it. But I'm rather with you that, circumstances being different, not sure that Meddie would have won that final.

Medvedev may be not that different from Tsitsipas and Zverev, except that he got lucky, in the timing. I'd like to think so, though.

Sorry, Moxie but I totally disagree you here. Medvedev is way above both Tsitsipas and Zverev.

Also, while Djokovic was more than likely tired in that 2021 US Open Final, I still have to give Medvedev full credit in that match. We have seen other players outside of the Big 4 and Stan crumble even if Djokovic was extremely tired or down and out. They mentally disappear when they have a chance to win the match.

Finally, Medvedev did reach the 2022 AO Final and had a 2-0 set lead over Nadal before Nadal stormed back in the match.

 

[Moxie]

Sorry, Moxie but I totally disagree you here. Medvedev is way above both Tsitsipas and Zverev.

Also, while Djokovic was more than likely tired in that 2021 US Open Final, I still have to give Medvedev full credit in that match. We have seen other players outside of the Big 4 and Stan crumble even if Djokovic was extremely tired or down and out. They mentally disappear when they have a chance to win the match.

Finally, Medvedev did reach the 2022 AO Final and had a 2-0 set lead over Nadal before Nadal stormed back in the match.

I'm not sure "way" above is true. I've said any number of times that Medvedev had a game plan for that 2021 USO final, and he executed. Big credit. In this, alone, he's better than the Greek and Sasha. Had his opportunity and took it. Do I think it was aided? A bit, yes. The 2019 USO final should never have gotten to 5, but the AO final in 2022, Nadal was just tougher than he was. Look, I like Medvedev, he's got a quirky game, and he's also smart and funny. But he lacks something when it comes to the kill shot. I think he has another Major in him, maybe two, but he's got a few things to think about. And he'd be better off if he faced Tsitsipas or Zverev in the finals.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I'm not sure "way" above is true. I've said any number of times that Medvedev had a game plan for that 2021 USO final, and he executed. Big credit. In this, alone, he's better than the Greek and Sasha. Had his opportunity and took it. Do I think it was aided? A bit, yes. The 2019 USO final should never have gotten to 5, but the AO final in 2022, Nadal was just tougher than he was. Look, I like Medvedev, he's got a quirky game, and he's also smart and funny. But he lacks something when it comes to the kill shot. I think he has another Major in him, maybe two, but he's got a few things to think about. And he'd be better off if he faced Tsitsipas or Zverev in the finals.

I think way above is fair statement, imo. Because he is 6-2 in Slam SFs. Zverev is 1-6 in the Slam SFs, Tsitsipas is pretty much non-existent at Wimbledon and US Open.

Yes, Medvedev needs to finish the slam finals but at the very least he is reaching them and beating the players such as Tsitsipas and Zverev. By the way, he is also beating them on Best of three format.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I'm not sure "way" above is true. I've said any number of times that Medvedev had a game plan for that 2021 USO final, and he executed. Big credit. In this, alone, he's better than the Greek and Sasha. Had his opportunity and took it. Do I think it was aided? A bit, yes. The 2019 USO final should never have gotten to 5, but the AO final in 2022, Nadal was just tougher than he was. Look, I like Medvedev, he's got a quirky game, and he's also smart and funny. But he lacks something when it comes to the kill shot. I think he has another Major in him, maybe two, but he's got a few things to think about. And he'd be better off if he faced Tsitsipas or Zverev in the finals.

At the AO this year, a couple of those matches Meddy played which went to 5 sets, should not have gone 5 sets, he lost his serve when it mattered and his focus.
Meddy had a good game plan to come out hard and fast against Sinner, not his usually approach to his matches, though seeing he had soo much time on the court before the final compared to Sinner, quite frankly it was a good tactic, he has to pace himself better at times at GS tournaments, and win against lower ranked players and not having to go and win in 5 sets. A hard lesson learnt going forward in 2024 especially at GS level.
In my opinion Meddy has a much better chance of winning another GS, than Zverev ( who I am giving 1 more year) and have sold The Greek God

 

[El Dude]

This is where Elo is helpful. Peak Elo of the three mentioned:

Medvedev 2316 (Open Era #29)
Zverev 2303 (Open Era #31)
Tsitsipas 2258 (Open Era #50)

So Elo says Medvedev and Zverev--at their best (2021)--were very close, and significantly above Tsitsipas. Zverev was really quite good in 2021: Two Masters, the Tour Finals, and Olympic Gold. Not to mention two ATP 500s and two Slam SF. He went 31-4 after WImbledon, 47-8 after Munich. Quite a year, and kind of reminiscent of Marcelo Rios' 1998 season (but with a higher Elo). His Slam SF losses were both five-setters, one to Tsitsipas, the other to Novak. His Slam QF loss was also to Novak.

Players who play at that level for several years tend to win Slams. Zverev slipped, though, and hasn't been the same player since, mostly due to that gruesome injury at Roland Garros. But he's been improving, so if he can return to where he was in 2021, he's got to be considered a legit Slam contender. Not sure he'll be that good again, though.

 

[MatchPoint]

Hard to imagine Joker or Alcaraz not winning another Slam.
But, after the disgrace in Melbourne, it would not be surprising to see them both finish 2024 slamless.
Joker's level is atrocious, and Alcaraz has still never recovered from that career-defining flop in the USO SF.

 

[El Dude]

Hard to imagine Joker or Alcaraz not winning another Slam.
But, after the disgrace in Melbourne, it would not be surprising to see them both finish 2024 slamless.
Joker's level is atrocious, and Alcaraz has still never recovered from that career-defining flop in the USO SF.

 

[Moxie]

Hard to imagine Joker or Alcaraz not winning another Slam.
But, after the disgrace in Melbourne, it would not be surprising to see them both finish 2024 slamless.
Joker's level is atrocious, and Alcaraz has still never recovered from that career-defining flop in the USO SF.

Welcome, MatchPoint! I don't know what would make you think that Alcaraz, at 20, won't win another Slam. At 36, you could make an argument against Djokovic, however. Novak's level at this AO was definitely sub-par, overall. Does he recover and come back? History suggests he will, even if increasingly briefly. As to Alcaraz, I don't see why you call his loss at USO this year to be "career-defining." If I'd call anything "career-defining" in his short career, I'd say it was his final win last year over Djokovic.

 

[MatchPoint]

Welcome, MatchPoint! I don't know what would make you think that Alcaraz, at 20, won't win another Slam. At 36, you could make an argument against Djokovic, however. Novak's level at this AO was definitely sub-par, overall. Does he recover and come back? History suggests he will, even if increasingly briefly. As to Alcaraz, I don't see why you call his loss at USO this year to be "career-defining." If I'd call anything "career-defining" in his short career, I'd say it was his final win last year over Djokovic.

Actually, I NEVER said that Alcaraz "won't win another Slam".
I said just the opposite:
"Hard to imagine Joker or Alcaraz not winning another Slam."

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If his career ended right now, Medvedev would be in the same tier as guys like Cilic, Thiem, and Michael Chang. All of them are consistently able to get deep into slams, but have trouble winning semis and finals, finishing with just the one slam. Medvedev probably moves into the Wawrinka tier with a 2nd slam, and the Andy Murray tier with a 3rd slam.

 

[El Dude]

You also said "Alcaraz has still never recovered from that career-defining flop in the USO SF."

"Never" implies a long period of time, when we're talking about six months and one Slam ago. "Career-defining flop"...well, every player "flops," and we're talking about a 20-year old with two Slam trophies on his shelf. He's going to have his ups and downs and growing pains.

 

[MatchPoint]

You also said "Alcaraz has still never recovered from that career-defining flop in the USO SF."

"Never" implies a long period of time, when we're talking about six months and one Slam ago. "Career-defining flop"...well, every player "flops," and we're talking about a 20-year old with two Slam trophies on his shelf. He's going to have his ups and downs and growing pains.

Fair enough.
But still, the loss in the USO SF was beyond egregious.
Especially, with the entire tennis world expecting a rematch with Joker in the USO Final.
No way to sugarcoat that horrfic flop.
After that loss, he suffered a series of horrible losses to inferior players.
Horrid finish to 2023, which added some tarnish to the luster of the Wimby Crown
And, failing to make the AO SF, as a heavy pre-tourney favorite to win his Quarter, has just raised more questions which magnify Charlie's current run of flopdom.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think Shapovalov could get there with the right coach as far as contending. He’s not making the right moves as far as team. His serve is far too inconsistent. You can’t be serving like 15 aces one match and then 12 double faults the next match.

Sinner is definitely on the rise. I wouldn’t bet against him winning a few more. Medvedev should win some more. Alcaraz for sure.

I think if Zverev wants a slam, then he is going to have to make his move this year. I think he is flirting with other players passing him by. Speaking of which he really seemed to take it to heart when the media threw it in his face at the one French that Alcaraz passed him by. It lit a fire in him to at least give Alacaraz a run for his money. It didn’t seem to light a fire anywhere else.

Tsitsipas, well…who knows what goes on in that head.

FAA runs so hot and cold. I think his confidence is shot. It’s so weird because Denis and Felix play so well and bold in team competitions and generally so sporadic in tournaments.

Rune will land in his own once he really gets out of his own way. I see him competing for slams more likely in 2025 if he rights his ship this year.

 

[El Dude]

I think Shapovalov could get there with the right coach as far as contending. He’s not making the right moves as far as team. His serve is far too inconsistent. You can’t be serving like 15 aces one match and then 12 double faults the next match.

Sinner is definitely on the rise. I wouldn’t bet against him winning a few more. Medvedev should win some more. Alcaraz for sure.

I think if Zverev wants a slam, then he is going to have to make his move this year. I think he is flirting with other players passing him by. Speaking of which he really seemed to take it to heart when the media threw it in his face at the one French that Alcaraz passed him by. It lit a fire in him to at least give Alacaraz a run for his money. It didn’t seem to light a fire anywhere else.

Tsitsipas, well…who knows what goes on in that head.

FAA runs so hot and cold. I think his confidence is shot. It’s so weird because Denis and Felix play so well and bold in team competitions and generally so sporadic in tournaments.

Rune will land in his own once he really gets out of his own way. I see him competing for slams more likely in 2025 if he rights his ship this year.

I hear you about Zverev, but think he has more time than that. The top-end talent of the future isn't as domineering as the last 20 years. In other words, no matter how good Alcaraz, Sinner, and Rune get, it is highly unlikely that they'll dominate the tour like Roger, Novak, and Rafa did.

And of course there's always the possibility of him doing a Goran Ivanisevic. I know Goran's Slam win was unusual, but Zverev is a similar caliber (even better) player than Goran was in his prime. Goran's prime was 1990ish to 96ish (age 18-25), then he started slipping in 1997-2000 and seemed basically done by 2001, then won Wimbledon at age 29. Zverev turns 27 (hard to believe) in a couple months, so the clock is ticking. But it also means he probably has a few years of at least close-to-peak play.

 

[Moxie]

Actually, I NEVER said that Alcaraz "won't win another Slam".
I said just the opposite:
"Hard to imagine Joker or Alcaraz not winning another Slam."

Yes, but you're comparing what's left of a 36-year-old's career in the same breath as what's left of a 20-year-old's career. Djokovic may have 1 or 3 left in him, but Alcaraz was the first great teenager we've had since Rafa. If he plays until 35, say, he could contest 50+ more Slams.

Fair enough.
But still, the loss in the USO SF was beyond egregious.
Especially, with the entire tennis world expecting a rematch with Joker in the USO Final.
No way to sugarcoat that horrfic flop.
After that loss, he suffered a series of horrible losses to inferior players.
Horrid finish to 2023, which added some tarnish to the luster of the Wimby Crown
And, failing to make the AO SF, as a heavy pre-tourney favorite to win his Quarter, has just raised more questions which magnify Charlie's current run of flopdom.

I think you're not just being too hard on Alcaraz, you're overstating his losses of late. He lost at the USO to Medvedev (also former USO champ,) and it went 4, so I don't see why that's "beyond egregious." He lost at the AO in QF to Zverev, again in 4. These guys aren't chopped liver. I totally disagree that anything "tarnishes the luster" of his Wimbledon win. Neither Roger nor Novak had 2 Majors at age 20. And it took Rafa until 22 to win on 2 different surfaces. I've just compared him to the Big 3, and more than a few people have said it's unfair to have the same expectations, which I agree with. Just a bit of perspective. In any case, a little patience with Charly would be fair.

 

[Moxie]

I hear you about Zverev, but think he has more time than that. The top-end talent of the future isn't as domineering as the last 20 years. In other words, no matter how good Alcaraz, Sinner, and Rune get, it is highly unlikely that they'll dominate the tour like Roger, Novak, and Rafa did.

I was trying to say something similar, above, whether I articulated it or not. That once Novak is truly done, and I think we all know that Rafa is close to it, there is likely to be more of a "musical chairs" at the Slams. I do hope that Alcaraz and Sinner prove to be fairly dominant, with Rune in the mix. That would be fun. But that's why I give chances to Medvedev...who has put himself in good position more than a few times, even if he's come up short all but one of them. And, sure, Zverev, and some surprises, too. Though I'm with @Sundaymorningguy on Tsitsipas. He'd need a head adjustment to win a Major.

 

[El Dude]

Fair enough.
But still, the loss in the USO SF was beyond egregious.
Especially, with the entire tennis world expecting a rematch with Joker in the USO Final.
No way to sugarcoat that horrfic flop.
After that loss, he suffered a series of horrible losses to inferior players.
Horrid finish to 2023, which added some tarnish to the luster of the Wimby Crown
And, failing to make the AO SF, as a heavy pre-tourney favorite to win his Quarter, has just raised more questions which magnify Charlie's current run of flopdom.

OK, but again, he doesn't have to be Rafa or Novak or Roger to be the future of tennis. In fact, he doesn't even have to be singularly dominant to be part of the future of tennis. Imagine a world in which the best players of the next decade end their careers with 9 (Alcaraz), 7 (Sinner), and 5 (Rune) Slams (or whatever totals they end up with). Isn't that enough? Have our expectations calibrated so thoroughly to the Big Three?

 

[El Dude]

I was trying to say something similar, above, whether I articulated it or not. That once Novak is truly done, and I think we all know that Rafa is close to it, there is likely to be more of a "musical chairs" at the Slams. I do hope that Alcaraz and Sinner prove to be fairly dominant, with Rune in the mix. That would be fun. But that's why I give chances to Medvedev...who has put himself in good position more than a few times, even if he's come up short all but one of them. And, sure, Zverev, and some surprises, too. Though I'm with @Sundaymorningguy on Tsitsipas. He'd need a head adjustment to win a Major.

Agree on all accounts. For me the best case scenario is that Rafa and Novak are done with winning Slams after 2024, and we see a new field emerge of Alcaraz and Sinner at the top, with Rune being the deadly wildcard, Medvedev hanging around being the challenger and then a closer-than-Big-Three-era second tier of a dozen or so players, all of whom win Masters and half at least are serious dark-horses at Slams.

Meaning, I'm looking forward to an era where the question isn't which of three players win a Slam, but which of half a dozen or more, while still having a small group of true elites that set the course. Best of both worlds, really - sort of a middle ground of 98-03 and 03-23.

My prediction is that Djokodal win 1-2 Slams this year, 0-1 in 2025, and 0 in 2026. Meaning, we're basically already in the new era, just with a bit of echo from the past one.

 

[El Dude]

Big Three Slams: 2004-23 (20 years): 65 of 79 Slams (82%).

Of those 20 years, the Big Three won the majority of Slams in all but two years (2014, 2016), and all four Slams 8 times (40%).

We're going to see a lot more parity in the next decade or two, or at least I hope so!