I'm not surprised to hear you say this, but it is sad, because I know you especially had such hopes for him. We're probably all selling on Felix.
I was looking at the ATP website, and noticed Montpellier. (FAA still in.) Denis Shapavolov lost to Bublik today. He's only a year older than Felix, 25, but didn't we once have hopes for him? He's totally gone off the radar. My only point here is that there is a difference, and sometimes a chasm between expectations and results.
Look at your examples above. I know that the All-Europe 12-and under was won by Rafa, where he beat Gasquet, and Monfils came in third. They were all that close, in potential. But they differed wildly in outcome. Even though Gasquet and Monfils had really good careers.
I guess my only point here is that it's so hard to judge potential, against swimming in the deep end of the pool. Raw talent is only part of it. I think everyone has made the same point here, in one way or another. They can be limited by injuries, by game, but it really does seem to have a lot to do with who has the drive, the ambition, competitiveness, added to the talent.
Well I always first notice players when they show up in the top 200 or so at a young age, and then especially top 100 as a teenager. If you remember my "benchmarks of greatness," that's sort of the "first cut" (or benchmark): reaching the top 100 at 18 (that is, before turning 19). There are also players that I hear about first here or elsewhere, like Christian Garin way back in the day. Someone here mentioned Garin I think like 10 years ago...not sure why. But he certainly didn't do anything early in the rankings to take notice of.
Anyhow, at that point, usually no one has seen them play - they're just a name, age, and ranking. But it is sort of like "Here's a young guy with potential" because it takes a lot to reach the top 100 at 18 years old - and a high percentage of those players turn out to be at least second tier types, and more so: every all-time great reaches that first benchmark. In other words, among players during the ATP ranking era (so Borg onward), it has been accomplished by every 6+ Slam winner (though not every such player turns into a great player...there are some duds, ala Donald Young, and many just become good to very good players).
The last two players to do so were Arthur Fils and Luca Van Assche. Fils reached the top 100 (#63) on May 29th last year, about a week before turning 19, after winning his first title at Lyon. Van Assche snuck into the top 100 (#91) on April 3 last year, a bit over a month before his 19th birthday. So both reached that first benchmark, but just barely. Since then, both continued to rise, Fils a bit more quickly, reaching as high as #36. But now both are on the clock, and in order for them to be serious contenders to be elite players, they need to at least consolidate in the top 30 or so and make further gains soonish. People seem more excited about Fils, understandably, but we shouldn't (yet) sleep on Van Assche. But the next year or so should tell us a lot about both.
Felix did reach that benchmark, entering the top 100 in 2019 at age 18.
Shapovalov also reached that benchmark, and looked very promising what seems like an era ago. You of course must remember his claim to early fame: upsetting Rafa in Montreal in 2017 as a wildcard, when he was just 18 years old. He followed that up with a fourth round US Open run, beating a young Daniil Medvedev, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kyle Edmund, before being taken out by Pablo Carreno Busta. It was hard not to be excited about him. He finished the year at #51 and looked poised to break out as a new young star. But his ascent--while it continued--was slow. He reached #27 in 2018 and #15 in 2019 - a good trajectory, but not the type you see from young all-time-greats-to-be. In other words, by 2019 it should have been clear that his ceiling was lower than it looked in 2017. He didn't go deep in Slams and only won his first (and only) title in late 2019. He has pretty much stalled out since then, hanging out in the top 20 for four years and then struggling with injury last year.
FAA has had a roughly similar career arc, but has been a bit more successful with a handful of 250/500 titles, at least, and as high as #6 in 2022. I haven't
totally given up on him - I still think he can be a good player and maybe win a Masters or two, but I'm selling on what i thought he'd be a couple years ago: a multi-Slam winner, maybe better than that (for a bit there, I thought I was being overly cautious predicting 2-3 Slams and not true greatness).
But all of this supports your point: Young players show up on the radar and at first, if we haven't really gotten to know them (that is, see them play a good amount), they're just a young guy with potential. But then they start diverging paths - and the three you mention are a good example of how widely they can diverge from a similar early (age 17ish) place. Or here you go:
Gasquet and Rafa were close in early 2003, bu then Rafa jumped ahead. They both sort of stagnated (rankings-wise) in 2004 to early 2005, and then both jumped in 2005 - but Rafa supernova-ed from #50ish to #2, while Gasquet went from #100ish to top 20, and never really got much better (sort of like Shapo). Berdych was a bit later, but was actually ranked higher than Rafa for a bit in late 2004 after he won at Palermo and reached the 4th round of the US Open, but then took a slower path. Still, he was a better player than Gasquet, a fixture in the top 10 for seven years or so.
Looking ahead for the next Fils/Von Assche, there's an 18-year old Czech (19 in September) who is currently #127: Jakub Mensik. So maybe he's worth noting. At the least, he's got a good chance of breaking the top 100 well before his 19th birthday. Juncheng Shang has been hanging out in the 100-300 range for a couple years, but turns 19 in a couple days and seems to have missed the boat on that first benchmark. Dino Prizmic is the only other 18 year old in the top 200: he's at #169 and turns 19 in August. All the players born in 2006-07 are outside of the top 400, so quite a ways from knowing who among them will emerge. The only other pup I've stuck a pin in is American Alex Michelsen, who reached #94 last November, but he had turned 19 a few months earlier.
