The Slam Race - Who are you Buying/Selling?

[El Dude]

Maybe Zverev. At least he is trying.

Yeah, I would rank Zverev ahead of Stefanos, who might have fallen behind Rublev and even Hurkacz for possible future Slam winner, or at least is now in a similar category.

Zverev is easy to underrate his chances, because he's been around awhile and has only made one Slam final, all the way back in 2020. But he's reached the SF seven times, and I see regular semifinalists as serious contenders, so he's still ahead of "Mr Quarterfinals" Andrey Rublev and guys like Hurkacz.

Tsitsipas should be right up there too, but he just doesn't have the heart of Rublev or the servbot-could-get-lucky-at-Wimbledon specialization of someone like Hurkacz.

My Slam tiers, in terms of likelihood of winning Slams going forward:

Very likely (would be surprised if they didn't win more): Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic

Serious contenders (better than 50-50): Medvedev, Rune (once he wins his first, he'll join the tier above)

Darkhorses (they have the ability, but probably less than 50-50 chance at this point): Zverev, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz

"So You're Telling Me There's a Chance" (It could happen, I guess, because similar or even worse players have won Slams, but would require the stars to align just right): Fritz, De Minaur, Ruud, Dimitrov, Tiafoe, etc.

Too soon to tell: Shelton, Fils, Von Assche

Tsitsipas and Zverev really should be right there with Medvedev as regular serious contenders, but they both have a tendency to fritz out late in the tournament (with no insult meant for Taylor).

Rublev and Hurkacz are probably somewhere between "darkhorse" and "so you're telling me..." but I'm being a tad generous, because both have qualities that give them a better chance of winning a big one.

Rune is probably still more of a darkhorse, but he remains a bit of a wildcard would could put together a run and plow over everyone, or hang out as an erratic talent for another year or two. There's a lingering fear that he'll be another Tsitsipas disappointment, but I think his fire in the belly will eventually earn him multiple Slam titles.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Yeah, I would rank Zverev ahead of Stefanos, who might have fallen behind Rublev and even Hurkacz for possible future Slam winner, or at least is now in a similar category.

Zverev is easy to underrate his chances, because he's been around awhile and has only made one Slam final, all the way back in 2020. But he's reached the SF seven times, and I see regular semifinalists as serious contenders, so he's still ahead of "Mr Quarterfinals" Andrey Rublev and guys like Hurkacz.

Tsitsipas should be right up there too, but he just doesn't have the heart of Rublev or the servbot-could-get-lucky-at-Wimbledon specialization of someone like Hurkacz.

My Slam tiers, in terms of likelihood of winning Slams going forward:

Very likely (would be surprised if they didn't win more): Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic

Serious contenders (better than 50-50): Medvedev, Rune (once he wins his first, he'll join the tier above)

Darkhorses (they have the ability, but probably less than 50-50 chance at this point): Zverev, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz

"So You're Telling Me There's a Chance" (It could happen, I guess, because similar or even worse players have won Slams, but would require the stars to align just right): Fritz, De Minaur, Ruud, Dimitrov, Tiafoe, etc.

Too soon to tell: Shelton, Fils, Von Assche

Tsitsipas and Zverev really should be right there with Medvedev as regular serious contenders, but they both have a tendency to fritz out late in the tournament (with no insult meant for Taylor).

Rublev and Hurkacz are probably somewhere between "darkhorse" and "so you're telling me..." but I'm being a tad generous, because both have qualities that give them a better chance of winning a big one.

Rune is probably still more of a darkhorse, but he remains a bit of a wildcard would could put together a run and plow over everyone, or hang out as an erratic talent for another year or two. There's a lingering fear that he'll be another Tsitsipas disappointment, but I think his fire in the belly will eventually earn him multiple Slam titles.

I would say that Rune is a darkhorse contender rather than serious contender as of right now until he reaches a Slam SF. The good thing about Rune is that he is only 20 years old (21 in late April) so he has time to improve as player. But he is in the phase in which he needs to work on his endurance, shot selection/tolerance and “mental” discipline on the court. It is good that he is showing some fire in his belly at a young age, but he needs to use that fire in a proper way.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I was very disappointed at Rune and his lost to French WC Cazaux, at the AO, for a lot of reasons, mentally, shot selection for starters

 

[kskate2]

Yeah still a Mental Midget though

And that's the part that will forever hold him back. Technically and physically he has all the weapons and they actually hold up pretty well under pressure. It's his head that does him in.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I would sell my stocks on Tsitsipas winning a slam. I think that ship has sailed in my opinion. Not only he did not improve his return of serve and backhand, I feel like mentally he has regressed since that blown 2-0 set lead against Djokovic in 2021 RG Final.

As for Zverev, I will hold my stocks on him winning 1 slam. On one hand, he has a consistent game to reach the SF of slams (especially RG), on the other hand, he is just mentally weak. I just do not know on how many chances he could get before the door shuts on him on winning a single slam.

 

[Moxie]

I actually think there's still a chance Zverev wins a slam. Remember how he was doing against Nadal at RG. He often plays like a total beast. Needs to avoid 5 setters just like Medvedev and who knows. I could see him challenging at RG in future in fact. Still young. Immense power and big serve and he's done really well tbh after coming back from his injury.

You've mentioned how Zverev played against Nadal at RG a few times. That match didn't finish 2 sets. I don't think Zverev's problem is his game. He was up 2 sets to love on Thiem in the US Open final, and found a way to lose. Zverev lacks testicular fortitude. Or as Margaret put it more succinctly, he's a mental midget. Same with Tsitsipas, IMO. Maybe they'll just too "blonde" and bland to win Majors. I'm selling both.

 

[Moxie]

My Slam tiers, in terms of likelihood of winning Slams going forward:

Very likely (would be surprised if they didn't win more): Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic

Pretty easy, but Djokovic is trending towards "sell."

Serious contenders (better than 50-50): Medvedev, Rune (once he wins his first, he'll join the tier above)

Personally, I think Medvedev and Rune are also "very likely." If you need this category, I'd put Rafa in here. If he plays Roland Garros, he's a serious contender, even on one leg.

Darkhorses (they have the ability, but probably less than 50-50 chance at this point): Zverev, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz

Ridiculous to group Nadal with these guys, and you didn't even mention him first. (Always with the "tell.") I don't see why not put Ruud in here...he's a good clay man. (You suggested below he could go here. I'd put him in.) Also, while I don't love their games, I'd give Rublev and Hurkacz more of a chance than Tsitsipas and Zverev, just because they have more grit.

"So You're Telling Me There's a Chance" (It could happen, I guess, because similar or even worse players have won Slams, but would require the stars to align just right): Fritz, De Minaur, Ruud, Dimitrov, Tiafoe, etc.

As per above, I'd put Ruud above, and probably kick Zverev and Tsitsipas down here. They're the kind of talented guys like Dimitrov who probably will never get past their own egos and short-comings. I'd give Fritz more of a chance, at the USO. I think Tiafoe is past his sell-by date, and I don't think De Minaur has the weapons. Most of these guys are spoilers. Including Tsitsipas and Zverev.

Too soon to tell: Shelton, Fils, Von Assche

Tsitsipas and Zverev really should be right there with Medvedev as regular serious contenders, but they both have a tendency to fritz out late in the tournament (with no insult meant for Taylor).

Rublev and Hurkacz are probably somewhere between "darkhorse" and "so you're telling me..." but I'm being a tad generous, because both have qualities that give them a better chance of winning a big one.

Rune is probably still more of a darkhorse, but he remains a bit of a wildcard would could put together a run and plow over everyone, or hang out as an erratic talent for another year or two. There's a lingering fear that he'll be another Tsitsipas disappointment, but I think his fire in the belly will eventually earn him multiple Slam titles.

I feel very optimistic about Rune. I think he's got the game and the desire. I think 2024 will be a good year for him.

 

[El Dude]

Ridiculous to group Nadal with these guys, and you didn't even mention him first. (Always with the "tell.")

Oh, man. You are absurd when it comes to your "Rafanoia," Moxie.

The players have different reasons to be in their categories. I put Rafa there because I'm unclear about his health. It has nothing to do with his ability. If he's healthy, he's probably still the favorite at RG. But with a one year layoff and an almost immediate injury that saw him miss AO, I see him as a darkhorse.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I am selling Greek God, I should have down that years ago, he wont get a proper coach, quite frankly if he did get a proper coach it would take some time to correct the bh and bhand slice, mentally weak., he has stated many times his father is the best coach for him, I rest my case.
As for Zverev, another Mental Midget, he would have a better chance of winning a GS than the Greek God, he was also under pressure from journalists at the AO with his up coming domestic abuse charge which will go to court in May this year, there were questions put to him about this, in his pressers, I know innocent until proven guilty though this must have been on his mind at the AO, I am not making excuses for him, still I will see how he goes in 2024, before I give up on him completely.
The most disappointing result for me was Rune getting beaten by the WC from Fance Cazaux, shot selection,his focus wasnt at the level it should be. He has built a good new team around him, having 'fire in the belly' to me is a good asset though that dosent win tennis matches on a whole. Hopefully we will see him play the type of tennis he is most capable of in 2024.

 

[don_fabio]

The most disappointing result for me was Rune getting beaten by the WC from Fance Cazaux, shot selection,his focus wasnt at the level it should be. He has built a good new team around him, having 'fire in the belly' to me is a good asset though that dosent win tennis matches on a whole. Hopefully we will see him play the type of tennis he is most capable of in 2024.

Yes it was.

I am looking forward to see Rune on clay and in RG. He claims he loves the clay, it gives him more time for the shots and he likes that he says. If he improves his physical issues by then, he could get a good result in RG. I feel his game will click on clay, maybe he can reach his first SF at a slam this year RG.

edit:
With that been said, I'm buying Rune stocks while they are down. It's a good investment I suppose. I'm beginning to like him. He has this FU attitude on the court, something that other 2 (Alcaraz, Sinner) lack, which makes him interesting as a player.

 

[don_fabio]

I am selling Greek God, I should have down that years ago, he wont get a proper coach, quite frankly if he did get a proper coach it would take some time to correct the bh and bhand slice, mentally weak., he has stated many times his father is the best coach for him, I rest my case.

Greek is a penny stock.

Penny Stock
High risk of loss: Penny stocks are inherently risky. Due to their low liquidity and small market capitalisation, they are susceptible to price manipulation, fraud, and sudden declines. Investors may experience substantial losses, and some penny stocks may even become worthless.

 

[El Dude]

I wouldn't worry too much about Rune getting upset. It happens, especially at his age. It is easy to lose sight of the big picture and make too much of individual tournaments. He's also the type that will probably have the stray upset like that.

Think of Roger in 2001-02. He made two QFs in 2001, but none in 2002, but his overall results were better, winning his first Masters, 3 titles vs 1, TF semifinals, etc. Even in 2003 when he won his first Slam, he didn't reach the QF at any other Slam (same with Rafa in 2005).

At Holger's age, the key is general improvement - going deeper in more and more tournaments, fine-tuning the things he needs to work on. If we're approaching the end of 2025 and he hasn't won his first Slam, I may start re-calibrating expectations and worrying about him being another Tsitsipas. But right now, at 20-21, he's still in that early window of rising towards his first Slam title. Anything before turning 22 (May 2025) or so, is still very much on pace for a great career.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

edit:
With that been said, I'm buying Rune stocks while they are down. It's a good investment I suppose. I'm beginning to like him. He has this FU attitude on the court, something that other 2 (Alcaraz, Sinner) lack, which makes him interesting as a player.

Come to think of it, Sinner reminds me a lot of Pete Sampras. Not much of a personality, just very businesslike and has a sustainable game (one that won't result in a lot of injuries). Probably the surest bet in men's tennis right now is that Sinner is going to win many slams over the next 10-12 years.

 

[don_fabio]

Come to think of it, Sinner reminds me a lot of Pete Sampras. Not much of a personality, just very businesslike and has a sustainable game (one that won't result in a lot of injuries). Probably the surest bet in men's tennis right now is that Sinner is going to win many slams over the next 10-12 years.

I have no doubt in Sinner's success in forecoming years. It's not the personality that wins matches. I just mentioned it to say that it is one of the things which makes Rune an interesting player to follow.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Yes it was.

I am looking forward to see Rune on clay and in RG. He claims he loves the clay, it gives him more time for the shots and he likes that he says. If he improves his physical issues by then, he could get a good result in RG. I feel his game will click on clay, maybe he can reach his first SF at a slam this year RG.

edit:
With that been said, I'm buying Rune stocks while they are down. It's a good investment I suppose. I'm beginning to like him. He has this FU attitude on the court, something that other 2 (Alcaraz, Sinner) lack, which makes him interesting as a player.

I am not selling stocks in Rune at all, it is just of late he has been very disappointing, I didnt expect him to go out like he did at the AO to a WC, it was how he lost, okay maybe I am expecting too much of him at this stage, of course he will have ups and downs, anyway lets see how he performs in 2024, he does have a good team around him and quite frankly I am glad he got rid of Patrick M.

 

[Front242]

I am not selling stocks in Rune at all, it is just of late he has been very disappointing, I didnt expect him to go out like he did at the AO to a WC, it was how he lost, okay maybe I am expecting too much of him at this stage, of course he will have ups and downs, anyway lets see how he performs in 2024, he does have a good team around him and quite frankly I am glad he got rid of Patrick M.

Not a good look to have a coach involved in a doping scandal so I agree it's good he ditched Patrick and maybe that was why.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Not a good look to have a coach involved in a doping scandal so I agree it's good he ditched Patrick and maybe that was why.

I am not quite sure why he parted from Patrick M, in hindsight it was a good decision to part ways with Patrick M, Patrick M has a 'big mouth' period., he comes out in the press constantly to defend his academy, though at the end of the day the onus is on Halep.

 

[Front242]

I am not quite sure why he parted from Patrick M, in hindsight it was a good decision to part ways with Patrick M, Patrick M has a 'big mouth' period., he comes out in the press constantly to defend his academy, though at the end of the day the onus is on Halep.

100% it's her fault and tbh I'm not sure I believe his story about giving her contaminated collagen. Sounds like utter bs tbh. There's no way this was found in collagen. https://www.npr.org/2022/10/25/1131097262/simona-halep-failed-drug-test-roxadustat

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

100% it's her fault and tbh I'm not sure I believe his story about giving her contaminated collagen. Sounds like utter bs tbh. There's no way this was found in collagen. https://www.npr.org/2022/10/25/1131097262/simona-halep-failed-drug-test-roxadustat

There is a post for Halep's doping in the WTA forum, maybe you should post that link there, Halep will be defending her ban, case to be held in early February which is on that post.

 

[Front242]

There is a post for Halep's doping in the WTA forum, maybe you should post that link there, Halep will be defending her ban, case to be held in early February which is on that post.

Yeah not gonna derail this thread and I know there's a thread about her case cheers. Was just saying it's good Rune has distanced himself from Patrick and all that crap.