JesuslookslikeBorg
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The Rankings Thread (ATP)
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El Dude
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Wow, people are really overrating Thiem, imo. I was early on the bandwagon and thought he'd be a sleeper this year, but I don't see him as a future #1. Future top 10? Definitely, perhaps within clay court season. Future top 5? Given the weakness of players born in 1988-94, sure. But #1? I just don't see it.
As for Novak, he's taking advantage of a relatively weak era right now. Thiem is coming into his own and Kyrgios isn't far behind, but higher upside guys like Zverev and Fritz are probably 2-3 years away from greatness. So I think Novak will be #1 this year and probably next, with a chance to go deep into 2018. But I think Obsi is right that it will be sometime around Wimbledon that he loses it.
As for Novak, he's taking advantage of a relatively weak era right now. Thiem is coming into his own and Kyrgios isn't far behind, but higher upside guys like Zverev and Fritz are probably 2-3 years away from greatness. So I think Novak will be #1 this year and probably next, with a chance to go deep into 2018. But I think Obsi is right that it will be sometime around Wimbledon that he loses it.
ftan
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Fiero425
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El Dude
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Its all just a bit of fun. As for Kyrgios, I put him in there because of all of the players close or in their prime, he seems to be able to reach an explosive level that puts him up there with the big-boys. Think of the players that you could imagine beating Novak: there simply aren't that many. Roger and Rafa are too old and in decline, Andy doesn't have it, Berdych? Tsonga? Nishikori? Nope. Maybe Milos on fast courts if Novak loses half a step, but that's hard to imagine. Zverev and Fritz are 2-3 years away from prime time, so that leaves NicK. For better or worse, he just seems the best hope to be a "Novak Killer."
He also reminds me a bit of Wawrinka in that way: nearly unbeatable when on, but only on so rarely. Actually, there's an interesting parallel in that Stan finished his age 21 year at #30, about Nick's ranking now at the same age. But then Stan went on to stagnate for a good *seven years*, until he broke through in 2013. I don't think that will happen to NicK, though.
He also reminds me a bit of Wawrinka in that way: nearly unbeatable when on, but only on so rarely. Actually, there's an interesting parallel in that Stan finished his age 21 year at #30, about Nick's ranking now at the same age. But then Stan went on to stagnate for a good *seven years*, until he broke through in 2013. I don't think that will happen to NicK, though.
Kieran
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Novak is definitely dominating an era as weak and unfortunate when it comes to bona fide challengers as Roger did, when he racked up his first 9 or 10 majors, so it's going to be the case that even at 70%, Nole will stay top, so long as things remain the same. And I agree, Nick has the arrogance and explosive power and skill to win big. My big worry for him is that he isn't the brightest - even in tennis oncourt smarts - and he so far seems unable or unwilling to learn. But that can change, and as you say, it's all a bit of fun...
El Dude
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Actually, Nick's lack of brightness might help him against Novak: He might be too stupid to realize he's playing Novak and should lose 
.
As for the "weak eras" argument, I was actually fiddling about with a blog about this, comparing Novak's unparalleled dominance over the last year and half to Roger's best years. I actually think the tour has been weaker over the last year and a half than it ever was under Roger, with the possible exception of 2004. But by 2005 Rafa was playing at a very high level and dominating clay, and Novak started getting good in 2007.
But more so, as I said in another thread, the second tier talent of Roger's generation was stronger than the second tier talent today. Safin, Roddick, Hewitt, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Ferrero, etc...these guys were more competitive than the group of second tier today: Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Cilic, Gasquet, etc.
Actually, it seems that a lot of really dominant years in tennis history weren't only about a great player destroying everyone, but other factors - maybe an injury or decline from other top players, a change in generations, etc. Even looking at Rafa's best years--who had the misfortunate of his peak overlapping with Roger and Novak--you can see some of this: in 2013, Roger was AWOL, and there was only really Novak and Andy to contend with. In 2010, Novak was struggling, Andy was Andy, and Roger was in decline. In 2008, Roger was dealing with mono, Andy and Novak were just getting good.
When you have years where several top players are in peak form you get something like 2012, the Year of the Big Four.
But where Roger and Novak are similar is that they combined a couple major factors: a very high level of talent across all surfaces and amazing health and the resulting consistency. This allowed them to take advantage of the weaknesses of lesser players and dominate the way Roger did and Novak is. Not every great player can do this.
.As for the "weak eras" argument, I was actually fiddling about with a blog about this, comparing Novak's unparalleled dominance over the last year and half to Roger's best years. I actually think the tour has been weaker over the last year and a half than it ever was under Roger, with the possible exception of 2004. But by 2005 Rafa was playing at a very high level and dominating clay, and Novak started getting good in 2007.
But more so, as I said in another thread, the second tier talent of Roger's generation was stronger than the second tier talent today. Safin, Roddick, Hewitt, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Ferrero, etc...these guys were more competitive than the group of second tier today: Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Cilic, Gasquet, etc.
Actually, it seems that a lot of really dominant years in tennis history weren't only about a great player destroying everyone, but other factors - maybe an injury or decline from other top players, a change in generations, etc. Even looking at Rafa's best years--who had the misfortunate of his peak overlapping with Roger and Novak--you can see some of this: in 2013, Roger was AWOL, and there was only really Novak and Andy to contend with. In 2010, Novak was struggling, Andy was Andy, and Roger was in decline. In 2008, Roger was dealing with mono, Andy and Novak were just getting good.
When you have years where several top players are in peak form you get something like 2012, the Year of the Big Four.
But where Roger and Novak are similar is that they combined a couple major factors: a very high level of talent across all surfaces and amazing health and the resulting consistency. This allowed them to take advantage of the weaknesses of lesser players and dominate the way Roger did and Novak is. Not every great player can do this.
Kieran
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El Dude said:Actually, Nick's lack of brightness might help him against Novak: He might be too stupid to realize he's playing Novak and should lose
I'm with brother Fiero on the levels of competitiveness of both eras you mentioned. But it's an interesting take on Nick, I think you could be right. Sometimes a player can be so dim (comparatively) that he doesn't actually realise the enormity of the occasion. One other thing in his favour is that he's definitely a bloke who enjoys the big matches. What he needs after this is the great hunger that the legends have, that terrible pain when they lose, and so on. I hope he gets to that stage, because he's definitely a potentially great player.
I'm much more excited about the prospects for that generation. I wonder who the great rivalries will be, and who'll own who, etc, maybe six years down the line. And of course, it could be that the great rival to one of these current youngsters is still only a kid aged 14 or so...
El Dude
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On a different note, watching Kyrgios play I have faith he'll be in the top 10 by the end of the year, along with Thiem and maybe Raonic and Goffin. Actually, it could get really crowded among players in the #6-15ish range, with a sea change beginning, players like Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, and Gasquet trickling out, and others trying to get in.
By the way, it looks like live-tennis.eu is celebrating April Fools this year: http://live-tennis.eu/
By the way, it looks like live-tennis.eu is celebrating April Fools this year: http://live-tennis.eu/
There's a good chance that Kyrgios will end his career as an all-time great but not among GOAT candidates. Rather, someone like Jimmy Connors.
GameSetAndMath
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Just 120 points separate Fed and Andy. Andy has lot to defend during the clay warm-up season, but fed has almost nothing. So, it looks to me that Fed might get #2 seed at RG, assuming there are no hick-ups in his comeback.
Fed has just 950 to defend in clay warm-up (rome 600, madrid 10, mc 90, Istanbul 250).
Andy has 1340 to defend in clay warm-up season (madrid 1000, rome 90, munich 250).
Andy has to outperform Fed by 270 points to retain #2 seeding at RG.
Fed has just 950 to defend in clay warm-up (rome 600, madrid 10, mc 90, Istanbul 250).
Andy has 1340 to defend in clay warm-up season (madrid 1000, rome 90, munich 250).
Andy has to outperform Fed by 270 points to retain #2 seeding at RG.
GameSetAndMath
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Meanwhile Murray will be #1 in the new rankings to be released day after tomorrow. No, this is not an April fools joke.
Fiero425
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GameSetAndMath
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Fiero425 said:
In case it is not clear, I was referring to the other Murray who will be #1 in doubles for the first time in his career this Monday. :clap
