The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[Jelenafan]

It’s shaping up to be a very Intriguing battle for YE # 1:

The HC season should be very interesting as you have 3 players at the top, (Alcaraz, Novak, Medvedev) but Novak has zero points to defend from here to the USO. Post USO he does have finalist points in Paris Masters and championship points in Torino, whereas Carlos has no late season points to defend.

Medvedev is the HC wildcard because this has historically been his best part of his season, nothing but his beloved HC , and he is fully capable of winning a couple of Masters and the USO.

So Canada & Cincy Masters should be fun as the guys jockey to position for the USO.

Im hoping that Holger can snag the # 4 ranking/seeding before the USO, he’s only 25 points from 5th (Tsitsipas) and within 180 points from 4th (Ruud) & very few points to defend through the USO. He's moving up and not getting the big guys until the SF’s can’t hurt.

Can’t see Casper Ruud repeating his FO feat & returning to the USO finals & YE ATP finals defending his points but you never know.

Add that we finally have the Asian swing of the tour back on with more points and Shanghai Masters and more player bitching the season is overcrowded.

 

[El Dude]

What a weird sight:

 

[Fiero425]

Vince Van Patten! But Fiero, you’re actually selling short his moment of glory, it was an actual ATP tournament, I think it was the Japanese indoor and he beat 3 top 10 players in a row, Jose Luis Clerc, Vitas Geralaitus, and Johhny Mac, then beat Edmundsun in the final. Talk about being in the zone.

I remember as a regular player being in the zone, the ball seems as big as a house and you glide through the court, alas the feeling doesn't last, LOL.

Back in the day, it was a bit of a mess w/ tournaments sanctioned & giving away points! Everything was so free-hand! I recall some guy was trying to come up w/ points earned by Borg back then! He found them all except 10 pts.! I figured it was something small & inconsequential! I guessed Nations Cup and was right! That Seiko event IMO was little more than an exhibition event, but it gave away lots of money so it was sanctioned! CRAZY times!

 

[El Dude]

Carlos Alcaraz has a 2344 Elo, which is 22nd in the Open Era. I think he's all but guaranteed to reach 2400 and maybe even has a shot at 2500.

Look at the names ahead of him, but before 2400, that I expect him to pass this year:

13. Rosewall 2388
14. Smith 2381
15. Agassi 2376
16. Wilander 2371
17. Edberg 2370
18. Nastase 2363
19. Roche 2355
20. Ashe 2354
21. Ferrer 2348
22. Alcaraz 2344

#12 is none other than Pete Sampras (2407) whose Elo, as I've said before, was lowered by his relatively poor clay play (his peak Elo on other surfaces was 2500+).

Most notable on that list are Agassi, Wilander, Edberg - true ATGs, if more modest ones. As a group, this is the "lesser great" cohort - so think of the fact that Alcaraz, at age 20, is likely going to pass all or most of these guys.

 

[Fiero425]

Carlos Alcaraz has a 2344 Elo, which is 22nd in the Open Era. I think he's all but guaranteed to reach 2400 and maybe even has a shot at 2500.

Look at the names ahead of him, but before 2400, that I expect him to pass this year:

13. Rosewall 2388
14. Smith 2381
15. Agassi 2376
16. Wilander 2371
17. Edberg 2370
18. Nastase 2363
19. Roche 2355
20. Ashe 2354
21. Ferrer 2348
22. Alcaraz 2344

#12 is none other than Pete Sampras (2407) whose Elo, as I've said before, was lowered by his relatively poor clay play (his peak Elo on other surfaces was 2500+).

Most notable on that list are Agassi, Wilander, Edberg - true ATGs, if more modest ones. As a group, this is the "lesser great" cohort - so think of the fact that Alcaraz, at age 20, is likely going to pass all or most of these guys.

Mon Dieu! You're in such a rush trying to make Carlos great B4 his time! What's the rush? He's scary good, but I'm not sure how long it'll last!

 

[Kieran]

What a weird sight:

View attachment 8507

I know I asked before and with the excitement of the match I forget, but did Rafa’s not get protected ranking?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I know I asked before and with the excitement of the match I forget, but did Rafa’s not get protected ranking?

I think the protected ranking is only used for tournaments. It doesn't get reflected on the actual world rankings. Rafa played his last match 6 months ago today, so he should qualify for it when he applies.

 

[Kieran]

I think the protected ranking is only used for tournaments. It doesn't get reflected on the actual world rankings. Rafa played his last match 6 months ago today, so he should qualify for it when he applies.

Cheers!

 

[Jelenafan]

Mon Dieu! You're in such a rush trying to make Carlos great B4 his time! What's the rush? He's scary good, but I'm not sure how long it'll last!

C’mmon Fiero, we all know ElDude is a statistics/data/rating groupie ( in a good way) and i betcha to get him going his paramours whisper “sweet numbers” in his ears. ; )

 

[El Dude]

I did a proper thread on this here:

Alcaraz and Elo (and speculations on what to expect going forward)

First, from the Rankings thread: Carlos Alcaraz has a 2344 Elo, which is 22nd in the Open Era. I think he's all but guaranteed to reach 2400 and maybe even has a shot at 2500. Look at the names ahead of him, but before 2400, that I expect him to pass this year: 13. Rosewall 2388 14. Smith...

www.tennisfrontier.com

And no, I'm not saying that he'll be as good as the B3 (Murray? Sure, I'll go out on a limb). But...the numbers--and eye-ball test--show a very special player. I don't see Hewitt as the low-end like some, but more like Boris Becker. Meaning, I see Becker as the baseline or floor for what we can expect to see, based upon historical precedents and what we've seen so far.

 

[the AntiPusher]

It’s shaping up to be a very Intriguing battle for YE # 1:

The HC season should be very interesting as you have 3 players at the top, (Alcaraz, Novak, Medvedev) but Novak has zero points to defend from here to the USO. Post USO he does have finalist points in Paris Masters and championship points in Torino, whereas Carlos has no late season points to defend.

Medvedev is the HC wildcard because this has historically been his best part of his season, nothing but his beloved HC , and he is fully capable of winning a couple of Masters and the USO.

So Canada & Cincy Masters should be fun as the guys jockey to position for the USO.

Im hoping that Holger can snag the # 4 ranking/seeding before the USO, he’s only 25 points from 5th (Tsitsipas) and within 180 points from 4th (Ruud) & very few points to defend through the USO. He's moving up and not getting the big guys until the SF’s can’t hurt.

Can’t see Casper Ruud repeating his FO feat & returning to the USO finals & YE ATP finals defending his points but you never know.

Add that we finally have the Asian swing of the tour back on with more points and Shanghai Masters and more player bitching the season is overcrowded.

Interesting

 

[Front242]

Mon Dieu! You're in such a rush trying to make Carlos great B4 his time! What's the rush? He's scary good, but I'm not sure how long it'll last!

His main issue is fitness though he held up well in grass season. Interesting to see how things go with regard to staying fit at the speed he runs.

 

[Jelenafan]

His main issue is fitness though he held up well in grass season. Interesting to see how things go with regard to staying fit at the speed he runs.

Well Carlos retired with an injury vs Holger at the Paris Masters late last fall & that prevented him from the YE Atp finals in Torino. Then he got reinjured so he had to skip the first slam in Australia. Of course he got the cramps in Roland Garos in the Semis versus Novak.

OTOH, he played three consecutive exhausting 5 set matches at the USO before besting Ruud in the finals so thats as brutal a test of fitness as you’re going to get.

Injuries could be another matter, plus at 20 your body has to still be somewhat adjusting.

This year I’m assuming Carlos is playing the Asian swing of the tour which has not been done in 3 years so none of the younger players have experienced a full globe trotting calendar season. By the YE champs they’re usually on fumes.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Well Carlos retired with an injury vs Holger at the Paris Masters late last fall & that prevented him from the YE Atp finals in Torino. Then he got reinjured so he had to skip the first slam in Australia. Of course he got the cramps in Roland Garos in the Semis versus Novak.

OTOH, he played three consecutive exhausting 5 set matches at the USO before besting Ruud in the finals so thats as brutal a test of fitness as you’re going to get.

Injuries could be another matter, plus at 20 your body has to still be somewhat adjusting.

This year I’m assuming Carlos is playing the Asian swing of the tour which has not been done in 3 years so none of the younger players have experienced a full globe trotting calendar season. By the YE champs they’re usually on fumes.

This is why I am in favor of moving the Asian swing to January and using it as a ramp up to the AO, which can be pushed to February. This would make space for a mid-season break in between the French Open and Wimbledon. That would greatly improve the quality of tennis played in the 2nd half of the season, plus you could move Indian Wells and the US Open to October, which would keep me more interested in the sport during the American football season, rather than some unimportant Asian swing event.

 

[Jelenafan]

I talked about it earlier but there’s looming a real battle for the # 4 ranking before the USO. The 4th place is huge because it’s the potential difference between meeting Alcaraz, Novak & Medvedev in the qtrs as opposed to the Semis at Flushing Meadows.

Here are the players ranked # 4 through # 8 as of this Monday with their points. I’ve put in parentheses the points #5-# 8 are out of 4th place:

4. Ruud 5005
5. Tsitsipas 4850 (-155)
6. Rune 4825 (-180)
7. Rublev 4525 (-480)
8. Sinner 3975 (-1,030)

Now are the points each is “defending” between here and the USO:

Ruud 620
Tsitsipas 610
Rune 100
Rublev 415
Sinner 430

Highly improbable Sinner can reach #4, even say his winning the 2 NA Masters the rest would all have to crash & burn, so realistically it’s one of the other 4.

I believe Rublev & Ruud are playing this week.
If Casper Ruud doesnt win this week’s Swedish Open defending 250 points at best (ergo he makes it all the way to the final) retains 4th but he’s in a virtual tie with Tsitsipas & Rune with only 30 points between. Not reaching the final he slips to 5th or even 6th in the ranking.

Obviously on paper Holger Rune has the best shot, he plays Umag (250) next week while Tsitsipas plays Los Cabos (250). If any of these guys can snag a Masters (1000 points) it makes life easier. Wouldn’t discount beautiful hair ( Rublev) because he is the kind of steady, consistent player who could win a 250 & make the SF’s or Finals of the Masters.

Ruud has a tough row to hoe, as he also has a boatload of points to defend from the USO onward to the end of the season.

Tsitsipas is more than capable of catching fire of course.

Inexplicably though Stefano has a horrible track record at the USO , never gotten past the 3rd round. So if he snags the #4 by then that would be interesting.

 

[tented]

I talked about it earlier but there’s looming a real battle for the # 4 ranking before the USO. The 4th place is huge because it’s the potential difference between meeting Alcaraz, Novak & Medvedev in the qtrs as opposed to the Semis at Flushing Meadows.

Here are the players ranked # 4 through # 8 as of this Monday with their points. I’ve put in parentheses the points #5-# 8 are out of 4th place:

4. Ruud 5005
5. Tsitsipas 4850 (-155)
6. Rune 4825 (-180)
7. Rublev 4525 (-480)
8. Sinner 3975 (-1,030)

Now are the points each is “defending” between here and the USO:

Ruud 620
Tsitsipas 610
Rune 100
Rublev 415
Sinner 430

Highly improbable Sinner can reach #4, even say his winning the 2 NA Masters the rest would all have to crash & burn, so realistically it’s one of the other 4.

I believe Rublev & Ruud are playing this week.
If Casper Ruud doesnt win this week’s Swedish Open defending 250 points at best (ergo he makes it all the way to the final) retains 4th but he’s in a virtual tie with Tsitsipas & Rune with only 30 points between. Not reaching the final he slips to 5th or even 6th in the ranking.

Obviously on paper Holger Rune has the best shot, he plays Umag (250) next week while Tsitsipas plays Los Cabos (250). If any of these guys can snag a Masters (1000 points) it makes life easier. Wouldn’t discount beautiful hair ( Rublev) because he is the kind of steady, consistent player who could win a 250 & make the SF’s or Finals of the Masters.

Ruud has a tough row to hoe, as he also has a boatload of points to defend from the USO onward to the end of the season.

Tsitsipas is more than capable of catching fire of course.

Inexplicably though Stefano has a horrible track record at the USO , never gotten past the 3rd round. So if he snags the #4 by then that would be interesting.

Thanks for compiling and posting these numbers. They’re certainly revealing.

Based on all of this, my money is on Rune to enter the USO #4. He’s trending, so to speak, and only has 100 points to defend, basically putting him 80 points away from No. 4 — that seems quite attainable. I can also easily imagine Ruud and Tsitsipas not defending all of their points, thus helping Rune rise above them.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

This is why I am in favor of moving the Asian swing to January and using it as a ramp up to the AO, which can be pushed to February. This would make space for a mid-season break in between the French Open and Wimbledon. That would greatly improve the quality of tennis played in the 2nd half of the season, plus you could move Indian Wells and the US Open to October, which would keep me more interested in the sport during the American football season, rather than some unimportant Asian swing event.

The AO wont be moved from January, because of the school holidays in Victoria and most of the east coast of Australia ( Sydney, Queensland) the only way it will be moved to February which is the hottest and most humid month in our Summer, if the school holidays are moved, which I cannot see happening

 

[Jelenafan]

Thanks for compiling and posting these numbers. They’re certainly revealing.

Based on all of this, my money is on Rune to enter the USO #4. He’s trending, so to speak, and only has 100 points to defend, basically putting him 80 points away from No. 4 — that seems quite attainable. I can also easily imagine Ruud and Tsitsipas not defending all of their points, thus helping Rune rise above them.

I know, but I don't want to jinx the kid! LOL

 

[El Dude]

Tsitsipas is more than capable of catching fire of course.

 

[Moxie]

The AO wont be moved from January, because of the school holidays in Victoria and most of the east coast of Australia ( Sydney, Queensland) the only way it will be moved to February which is the hottest and most humid month in our Summer, if the school holidays are moved, which I cannot see happening

You keep insisting that the AO won't be moved because of school holidays, but I find that to be a rather provincial reason to keep them where they are, if an international sport wants to change its place on the calendar. As you say, the heat and humidity in January, and therefore the health of the players, seems reason enough. Do you really think that kids make up any majority of ticket sales? I know their parents buy the tickets, but do kids really go every day? Would there be a significant drop in attendance if the kids were in school during the fortnight?

The USO is during school holidays for the first week, then the kids go back to school. I wouldn't mind if they moved it to a little later. Late August/early Sept. is very hot here, and humid, and in the heart of hurricane season.