The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[GameSetAndMath]

Oh, no I want top four seeding for Roger in Wimbledon and I think it is feasible.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Oh, no I want top four seeding for Roger in Wimbledon and I think it is feasible.

Surely he'll have to win IW or Miami for that to be feasible. Or Raonic needs to drop a lot of points between now and then.

Have you done the sums or is it just wishful thinking?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed is currently #7. As Thiem and Monfils are playing against each other, only one of them might possibly overtake Federer. So, even if that happens, Fed will be in top 8 for the Miami seedings.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Oh, no I want top four seeding for Roger in Wimbledon and I think it is feasible.

Surely he'll have to win IW or Miami for that to be feasible. Or Raonic needs to drop a lot of points between now and then.

Have you done the sums or is it just wishful thinking?

It is too early to spend time on detailed calculation. However, it is not wishful thinking either.
Fed may not be in top four in the rankings, but he is almost sure to be top four in the seedings of Wimbledon, thanks to grass court formula. Fed has a SF showing last year and a F showing the previous year and they will come in handy.

The guy who would lose out will not be Milos. It is highly likely to be the Man.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Oh, no I want top four seeding for Roger in Wimbledon and I think it is feasible.

Surely he'll have to win IW or Miami for that to be feasible. Or Raonic needs to drop a lot of points between now and then.

Have you done the sums or is it just wishful thinking?

It is too early to spend time on detailed calculation. However, it is not wishful thinking either.
Fed may not be in top four in the rankings, but he is almost sure to be top four in the seedings of Wimbledon, thanks to grass court formula. Fed has a SF showing last year and a F showing the previous year and they will come in handy.

The guy who would lose out will not be Milos. It is highly likely to be the Man.

Stan's got a very large lead on Fed though in points, and he is probably favourite now to make the final here from the top half. He could well win the whole thing too.

Here's how I would call it at the moment. To have a good shot at a top 4 seeding (without counting on other players to stumble), Fed should have at least 4K points at the beginning of the grasscourt season. We can't count on him picking up lots of points during the clay-court season (despite only having a Monte Carlo QF to defend, and nothing at RG). We also can't count on him playing Miami after this week. So in reality I would say if he doesn't win IW a top 4 Wimbledon seeding is not terribly likely.

But maybe we shouldn't hope for it anyway. It seems that difficult draws just motivate Roger more.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Fed is currently #7. As Thiem and Monfils are playing against each other, only one of them might possibly overtake Federer. So, even if that happens, Fed will be in top 8 for the Miami seedings.

As you say, Fed will be at worst #8.

Fed will be #7 unless

1) Fed loses in QF AND Thiem makes the semis or Monfils makes the final;
2) Fed loses in SF AND Thiem makes the final or Monfils wins the title;
3) Fed loses the final against Thiem or Monfils.

Should Fed win the title, he will even go up to #6, overtaking Nadal.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Stan's got a very large lead on Fed though in points, and he is probably favourite now to make the final here from the top half. He could well win the whole thing too.

On the other hand, he's currently a break down to Nishioka in the deciding set ... :cover

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

A top four seeding at Wimbledon will be good.

 

[Federberg]

Wow! If... and I mean big IF... Roger wins Indian Wells, he'll overtake Rafa in the rankings to No. 6. Raonic is not a million miles away, nor is Kei for that matter. Cream rising back to the top? Realistically he's at worst the real No. 3 in the world at the moment in any case

 

[britbox]

Wow! If... and I mean big IF... Roger wins Indian Wells, he'll overtake Rafa in the rankings to No. 6. Raonic is not a million miles away, nor is Kei for that matter. Cream rising back to the top? Realistically he's at worst the real No. 3 in the world at the moment in any case

Definitely, also thinking about it, he's dining out on a free lunch for the last 6 months of the year. Should (fitness and schedule permitting) end up in the Top 4 by the year end at a bare minumum.

 

[DarthFed]

Wow! If... and I mean big IF... Roger wins Indian Wells, he'll overtake Rafa in the rankings to No. 6. Raonic is not a million miles away, nor is Kei for that matter. Cream rising back to the top? Realistically he's at worst the real No. 3 in the world at the moment in any case

Yeah I think it's nuts that he is already back up to at least #8 after IW. That's basically on 7 tournaments with missing 2 slams last year and the YEC. At the start of the year I was just hopeful he could somehow get a top 4 seed at Wimbledon. If he wins IW that's all but a given. Even if he doesn't win IW his chances of getting a top 4 seed are great especially with Wimbledon having its own ranking system which would help him out (Roger made the final in 2015 and semi last year).

 

[Federberg]

It could be sooner. He's not that far away from Kei. A good run in Miami, with Kei having a stinker (in comparison to last year) from now until after would almost guarantee 4th going into the clay court swing


CH Player Name Age Ctry Pts +/- Current Tournament Previous Tournaments Next Pts Max Pts



1 CH
Andy Murray 29.8 GBR1 12005 - -35 - Lost in Indian Wells R64 - -

2 1
Novak Djokovic 29.8 SRB1 8915 - -910 - Lost in Indian Wells R16 - -

3 CH
Stan Wawrinka 31.9 SUI1 5285 - +90 Indian Wells QF - 5465 6105

4 CH
Kei Nishikori 27.2 JPN1 4730 +1 - Indian Wells QF - 4910 5550

5 3
Milos Raonic 26.2 CAN1 4480 -1 -600 - - - -

6 1
Rafael Nadal 30.7 ESP1 4145 - -270 - Lost in Indian Wells R16 - -

7 1
Roger Federer 35.6 SUI2 3485 +3 +180 Indian Wells QF - 3665 4305

8 7
Dominic Thiem 23.5 AUT1 3465 +1 +90 Indian Wells QF - 3645 4285

9 6
Marin Čilić 28.4 CRO1 3420 -2 -170 - Lost in Indian Wells R64 - -

10 5
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 31.9 FRA1 3310 -2 -170 - Lost in Indian Wells R64 - -

 

[El Dude]

The way Roger is playing, I don't see why he can't at least hold his own in clay season and at least go deep.

But I don't think Roger is too concerned about seeding. What he seems to be doing is using the lesser tournaments as warmups, and then going all out in the big tournaments. I think he is focused on winning Slams and, to a slightly lesser extent Masters, and perhaps even has #1 at the back of his mind. But this will shift in clay season. Maybe he goes into clay season thinking, "I'll push on the gas if I think I have a legit shot at winning, but mainly I'm going to cruise and stay healthy to be ready for grass season. I'm not going to ruin my legs to try to win clay."

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Fed is currently #7. As Thiem and Monfils are playing against each other, only one of them might possibly overtake Federer. So, even if that happens, Fed will be in top 8 for the Miami seedings.

As you say, Fed will be at worst #8.

Fed will be #7 unless

1) Fed loses in QF AND Thiem makes the semis or Monfils makes the final;
2) Fed loses in SF AND Thiem makes the final or Monfils wins the title;
3) Fed loses the final against Thiem or Monfils.

Should Fed win the title, he will even go up to #6, overtaking Nadal.

With Thiem's loss, Roger is now guaranteed to be #7 or higher on Monday.

A win over Kyrgios - plus perhaps a few points at Miami - ought to be enough to secure top 8 seeding for RG.

If Nadal hast a good clay season, #5-8 may be the safest place to be for RG.

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[GameSetAndMath]

Even if Roger wins IW, he will not get into top four at least at this time. So, the chances of a Fedal match in Miami is literally nil.

But, in Miami, Fed will be underdog in only three of the six matches he is scheduled to play.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

With Kyrgios having withdrawn, Fed's top 8 ranking should be pretty secure until the grass season.

Another couple of wins and a top four seeding at Wimbledon will not look out of the question.

It will be interesting to see this weekend how Roger does in tough matches on consecutive days.

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[Front242]

Today's match was tough as hell alright. But he got through it.

 

[MartyB]

Wow! If... and I mean big IF... Roger wins Indian Wells, he'll overtake Rafa in the rankings to No. 6. Raonic is not a million miles away, nor is Kei for that matter. Cream rising back to the top? Realistically he's at worst the real No. 3 in the world at the moment in any case

Is that a definite if Fed wins IW he will jump to 6? That is pretty amazing. As stated below if he has a very good run in Miami it will be interesting to see where his rankings will be and what he enters in the clay court season...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Kyrgios having withdrawn, Fed's top 8 ranking should be pretty secure until the grass season.

Don't think we can be so sure of that. There are three Masters and RG before grass. They together are worth 5000 points. Also, there are several itsy bitsy tourneys including a Barcy 500. So, lot of things could change, especially since Fed is going on a hiatus and will lose MC points during the hiatus.

If Fed wins IW and/or he reaches SF in Miami also, it is reasonably secure.

 

[Federberg]

Is that a definite if Fed wins IW he will jump to 6? That is pretty amazing. As stated below if he has a very good run in Miami it will be interesting to see where his rankings will be and what he enters in the clay court season...

Yup. That would be a definite. And he would only be 175 points behind Raonic