The Fall of Rafael Nadal

DarthFed

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14085 said:
Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Twisted wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
Let me just say again, just because you find those 5th set losses deplorable, it doesn’t mean he would have otherwise have won them. Just because he should have beaten Del Potro and Safin in those matches “on paper,” doesn’t do justice to the matches, as they were played, and the opponents on the day. It’s difficult to say that you overrate Roger, because he’s so good, but sometimes you do. And you underrate the opponent. It’s not like he lost those matches to chumps. And of course he was given a decent chance to win them, if not even being favored. He has a better record than almost anyone at 3 of the 4 Majors. However, there are reasons that the opponent was better on the day, and that Federer is human enough to have an off day. He isn’t missing those 3 or whatever Majors simply because he sucks at 5th sets. It’s more complicated than that, and the opponents he faced had something to say about it. For the record, it’s not that Rafa became “so weak” after winning RG. He injured his wrist, missed all of the USO season, and then had to have his appendix out. That’s quite a lot of bad luck. The rebound has taken longer than expected, I’ll give you that. But, yes, it left Djokovic without his greatest competitor. Hopefully that changes in 2016. Additionally, I’m going to be shocked and dismayed if the whole rest of the field just folds up its tent and gives up. There has to be a couple of young players with enough starch in their shorts to step up at least occasionally.
Well there are many ways to view the same situation. 3-8 in those matches I mentioned speaks to itself. A loss is a loss, meaning it is an awful result because aside from dying on court there is no worse result than losing. It is an individual sport so there is nowhere to hide. You either prove yourself superior or inferior. No one wants to be the embarrassed dude losing a match. It isn’t team sports where a player can do great and the rest of his team stinks and loses the game. You either do well (win) or you don’t (lose). You’ve probably seen me mention in other forums but that five set record in the biggest matches, instead of the Rafa H2H, is probably the worst number of Roger’s career. It does speak to how incredible a player he is that he is still the greatest/most successful to date given he struggles badly in close matches against top competition. For the most part in his prime Roger either won easily or lost a 5 set war at slams. As for Rafa’s struggles you are in denial at what’s taken place. He didn’t stink last year because of a 2 month wrist injury the year before or having his appendix removed. He was just another year older. He isn’t moving as well and the topspin isn’t as deadly. Without great movement and the deep high bouncing topspin he is not going to play at an elite level period. There is no great serve to lean on, and he can’t end points on his own terms. Add to that a player’s confidence naturally takes a hit as the bad results pile up. I do think he will have a better 2016 but health is not his problem right now (for a change).</blockquote>
Twisted wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
Let me just say again, just because you find those 5th set losses deplorable, it doesn’t mean he would have otherwise have won them. Just because he should have beaten Del Potro and Safin in those matches “on paper,” doesn’t do justice to the matches, as they were played, and the opponents on the day. It’s difficult to say that you overrate Roger, because he’s so good, but sometimes you do. And you underrate the opponent. It’s not like he lost those matches to chumps. And of course he was given a decent chance to win them, if not even being favored. He has a better record than almost anyone at 3 of the 4 Majors. However, there are reasons that the opponent was better on the day, and that Federer is human enough to have an off day. He isn’t missing those 3 or whatever Majors simply because he sucks at 5th sets. It’s more complicated than that, and the opponents he faced had something to say about it. For the record, it’s not that Rafa became “so weak” after winning RG. He injured his wrist, missed all of the USO season, and then had to have his appendix out. That’s quite a lot of bad luck. The rebound has taken longer than expected, I’ll give you that. But, yes, it left Djokovic without his greatest competitor. Hopefully that changes in 2016. Additionally, I’m going to be shocked and dismayed if the whole rest of the field just folds up its tent and gives up. There has to be a couple of young players with enough starch in their shorts to step up at least occasionally.
Well there are many ways to view the same situation. 3-8 in those matches I mentioned speaks to itself. A loss is a loss, meaning it is an awful result because aside from dying on court there is no worse result than losing. It is an individual sport so there is nowhere to hide. You either prove yourself superior or inferior. No one wants to be the embarrassed dude losing a match. It isn’t team sports where a player can do great and the rest of his team stinks and loses the game. You either do well (win) or you don’t (lose). You’ve probably seen me mention in other forums but that five set record in the biggest matches, instead of the Rafa H2H, is probably the worst number of Roger’s career. It does speak to how incredible a player he is that he is still the greatest/most successful to date given he struggles badly in close matches against top competition. For the most part in his prime Roger either won easily or lost a 5 set war at slams. As for Rafa’s struggles you are in denial at what’s taken place. He didn’t stink last year because of a 2 month wrist injury the year before or having his appendix removed. He was just another year older. He isn’t moving as well and the topspin isn’t as deadly. Without great movement and the deep high bouncing topspin he is not going to play at an elite level period. There is no great serve to lean on, and he can’t end points on his own terms. Add to that a player’s confidence naturally takes a hit as the bad results pile up. I do think he will have a better 2016 but health is not his problem right now (for a change).</blockquote>
</blockquote>
I haven’t actually seen you mention on other websites about Roger’s 5th set record being the worst of his CV, but there is an argument for that. It’s actually one of the perplexing things about his overall great play. But that doesn’t mean that he would have or should have otherwise won all of those matches you mention. It’s fair to bring in the opponent and the context, which I have already elaborated on. I’m not sure why I’m in denial about Rafa’s chances for 2016. His problems in 2015 weren’t about his wrist or his health, they were about his confidence, which he was straightforward about. He was finding form and confidence towards the end of this year. He’s a step slower with the dodgy knees, but quickness isn’t the only element of his game. I’ve never said he’s going to retake tennis. But, and especially with the dearth of up-and-comers, there is no reason to think that he doesn’t have a chance to get in the mix. Fed fans have been hoping the same for rather a long time now. No one can pretend that Roger still has a Major in him, at 34, and Rafa doesn’t, at 29. Another point, which you failed to address, and since you’ve restated that winning is the only thing, and that short of dying there is no worse result than losing: why is Federer’s record of reaching finals and SFs, (and QFs) interesting to you, in the ones he didn’t win?
[/quote]

At face value those records mean little but in order to win the tournament you have to make the final.  It's not like Roger lost most of the semifinals in that streak of 23 or most of the finals in that streak of 10.  So those streaks and the number of wins he did post just goes to show how dominant he was.  Way more dominant than anyone else has been.  Still, due to what you mentioned, those records are not among his most important.  Obviously the most important record of his is major titles.  After that it is probably weeks at #1 and consecutive weeks at #1.  The problem for Roger is that out of all his records the major titles might be the easiest to break.  Roger peaked late and has only won 1 slam since AO 2010 when he was 28 and 1/2.  So despite how dominant he was in his prime this leaves the door open for players who are great early and/or in their 30's.  Even just getting it to 19 would have probably put it out of reach of the current group and been difficult to surpass in the next 20 years.
 

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The fall and dramatic decline of Rafa continues but not really:

 

his is fall is far steeper than his rank. He is playing around top 100 tennis with substandard fitness.

how quickly people forget. Dustin brown was ranked around 105 when he spanked Rafa like a hapless insect.

today was not the new low. His low has already been reached.

he has no ground game and substandard fitness given his style of play.

he has a weak serve and he has no return. how the hell does anybody expects him to win anything in this shape is beyond me.

 

it is clay or nothing. And since he is going to Miami you can write clay off too now.

 

i think he has one shot left: it has to be in 2017 and it had to be on clay.

 

he has to get back to his roots.  It is clay or nothing.

 

it will take about 9 months of hard work on the fitness front to try to make something happen in 2017.

 

i think he is done for 2016. He can't win anywhere with this pathetic level of fitness.

rio and Hamburg hardly classify as real titles.
 

EdbergsGhost

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It's more like the fall of the illusions some of his fan base had built their hopes around.  Being up a break in the fifth set and then to lose 2-6, that's bad.  :-(   While you contend that his issue is fitness and lack of drive, there could also be other factors contributing to his decline.  Maybe after this loss, some of his fans will openly discuss the realities with you.
 

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I think there are a number of reasons contributing to Nadal's current place in the game.

1. Movement - I disagree he's "unfit".  He is fit and still moves quite well relatively speaking.  The "relatively speaking" bit is important because in his heyday, he was the best mover in the game bar none (and arguably the greatest mover I'd seen in the business EVER - Djokovic could lay a claim to that now also, bit thats beside the point).  He's slipped in that respect - and some of this is inevitable - father time. Could he be fitter?  Maybe... but he's pretty fit.</li>

2. The Serve - His second serve is a liability.  Verdasco, Djoker and Uncle Tom Cobley and all are all teeing off on it.  Nadal's second serve was severely punished today... and it's become a pattern.  That then puts a lot more pressure on the first serve - and it was plain to see.

3. Mental Strength - Once one of Nadal's biggest selling points - you can sense he's second guessing himself a lot.  He's lost that mental edge that contributed to his greatness during his prime. For the last year, he's been noticeably tight on the big points.

4. The field are smelling blood. Happens to the best of them. He's no longer invincible... and everyone knows it.

5. Lack of Evolution - What has Nadal added to his game in the last 3 or 4 years?   Nada.  Nothing at all.  You stand still and you're going backwards.  Look at the evolution of Djokovic and Federer in the last few years... Look at the changes Federer's made to stay relevant.

Now Nadal is still a Top 5-10 player.  He's not a sub-100+ player.  He's still a good tennis player.  He'll win more than he loses.  Nothing he's doing now is particularly different to anything different than a 5-10 ranked player - they win more than they lose, get upset in a few tournaments but do things a little better than the majority of the field.  Heck, he may even win more big titles....  but that's not the Rafael Nadal people (particularly his fans) expect.  They expect a lot more...  and there lies the problem. Expectations need to be revised.
 

Carol

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14828 said:
It’s more like the fall of the illusions some of his fan base had built their hopes around. Being up a break in the fifth set and then to lose 2-6, that’s bad.
wpml_sad.gif
While you contend that his issue is fitness and lack of drive, there could also be other factors contributing to his decline. Maybe after this loss, some of his fans will openly discuss the realities with you.

The same illusions than many of you are weating and hoping for the "18" which I don't think is going to happen, the same illusions than most of you are thinking that Novak is the "oasis" who is the only one who can stop Nadal and as you can see, after his injuries, anyone can stop him.

The reality? I agree with some of the things that britbox says, the serve (huge problem) and lack of evolution though when the head is not working well then the body either. I think he needs more someone who can helps him mentally than anything else, he has a good coach but I don't think he is the best "mentalist"

I don't believe in the "decline", I believe he needs a change before it would be too late

He said after the match: " it has hurt me, it took me by surprise, I thought I was ready to win. But I have to take it in the best way, life goes on and I will keep working hard"
 

EdbergsGhost

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14829 said:
5. Lack of Evolution – What has Nadal added to his game in the last 3 or 4 years? Nada. Nothing at all. You stand still and you’re going backwards. Look at the evolution of Djokovic and Federer in the last few years… Look at the changes Federer’s made to stay relevant.

This is the primary point for me. Watching other players against him, they've obviously begun to figure out how to hit his spin and are punishing the ball - especially when he drops it short. Truly, he's gone backwards standing still, as you say.

Conditioning - the bursts of power and speed, as well as stamina do seem to have gone away for some reason. :unsure:
 

herios

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14839 said:
britbox wrote:
5. Lack of Evolution – What has Nadal added to his game in the last 3 or 4 years? Nada. Nothing at all. You stand still and you’re going backwards. Look at the evolution of Djokovic and Federer in the last few years… Look at the changes Federer’s made to stay relevant.
This is the primary point for me. Watching other players against him, they’ve obviously begun to figure out how to hit his spin and are punishing the ball – especially when he drops it short. Truly, he’s gone backwards standing still, as you say. Conditioning – the bursts of power and speed, as well as stamina do seem to have gone away for some reason.
wpml_unsure.gif

 

Aging, that is the reason. Human body is at peak at 25, from there is downhill. Some steeper than others.
 

DarthFed

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The main thing is movement.  He doesn't track everything down anymore and is often not in position to line up the forehand.  The other problem is what BB mentioned.  When we think of Nadal's improvements over the years from when he first came what are they?
  1. His serve improved from being a total liability to being serviceable but rarely was a real weapon.  Big exceptions were the USO runs.
  2. He is no longer allergic to net but still is not someone looking to come in, he definitely won't make a consistent living up there.
  3. His backhand has always been solid especially his passing shots off that wing but as a baseline shot it is still mostly neutral.  Similar to the serve it is not a shot that consistently takes it to his opponents.
Basically what the above highlights is that he lacks weapons in a major way.  When his movement was out of this world he more than made up for it as he kept so many points alive and was eventually able to take control with his forehand (his primary/only point-ending weapon).  Combine the loss of movement with the loss of confidence from bad results and this is where Rafa is.
 

ClayDeath

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14091 said:
Clay Death wrote:
Rafa doesn’t care to win.
Ahahaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaa. Of all the false-confidence and delusional grandiose claims you make about Nadal, this has to take the cake.

 

it must be hard to be this clueless.

 

 

better learn to live with what I say because it is the bloody truth.

i just call the reality on the ground. truth has to hurt a few.

some of us are just better at spotting the trends years before they happen.

 

 

but if the last 3 years don't tell you anything the i think you may want to take up arm wrestling competitions.

they are a little easier to follow.

fishing rodeos are easy to follow also:
  1. you catch the wish
  2. you weigh the fish
 

calitennis127

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14866 said:
Broken_shoelace wrote:
<blockquote>
Clay Death wrote:
Rafa doesn’t care to win.
Ahahaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaa. Of all the false-confidence and delusional grandiose claims you make about Nadal, this has to take the cake.</blockquote>
it must be hard to be this clueless. better learn to live with what I say because it is the bloody truth. i just call the reality on the ground. truth has to hurt a few. some of us are just better at spotting the trends years before they happen. but if the last 3 years don’t tell you anything the i think you may want to take up arm wrestling competitions. they are a little easier to follow. fishing rodeos are easy to follow also:
  1. you catch the wish
  2. you weigh the fish

Nadal was never as good as you believed he was. He won a number of key matches by outlasting opponents more so than demonstrating superior tennis-playing ability.
 

ClayDeath

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it is not quite that simple.

he was plenty good enough on clay and he proved that for a decade.

his 46 titles on clay spell that out also. 46 clay titles against a far superior competition of modern times.

but heavy topspin game requires supreme fitness and immense physicality.

his youth is gone now. his game is very heavily dependent on these 2 things I just mentioned.

without these 2 things, he cant fight them. he is like a hapless, legless wounded duck out there.

now add to that the fact that his heart is not in it. there is very little fire in the belly.
 

Carol

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14869 said:
Clay Death wrote:
<blockquote>
Broken_shoelace wrote:
<blockquote>
Clay Death wrote:
Rafa doesn’t care to win.
Ahahaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaa. Of all the false-confidence and delusional grandiose claims you make about Nadal, this has to take the cake.</blockquote>
it must be hard to be this clueless. better learn to live with what I say because it is the bloody truth. i just call the reality on the ground. truth has to hurt a few. some of us are just better at spotting the trends years before they happen. but if the last 3 years don’t tell you anything the i think you may want to take up arm wrestling competitions. they are a little easier to follow. fishing rodeos are easy to follow also:
  1. you catch the wish
  2. you weigh the fish
</blockquote>
Nadal was never as good as you believed he was. He won a number of key matches by outlasting opponents more so than demonstrating superior tennis-playing ability.

Well, then starting winning  very young GS and MS  I would say that he was not just too good but also a genius but according to you can you imagine if he would have been good? he would have got at least more than 20 GS  :yahoo:
 

ClayDeath

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these are my players and it can never change but Rafa did walk away from the sport without actually walking away.

he gave up his chance to stare down history. he was just 3 slams away from history and more glory.

that also could have stopped Djokokvic from overtaking him (rafa), Sampras, and Federer which is exactly what djokovic is going to do.

it is not rocket science. djokovic is working night and day on his game and his fitness.

 

and now we are down to just one small chance: 2017

rafa has one last shot to make something happen on clay but it will have to be in 2017.

why? because he has no fitness and he has lost considerable amount of his physicality.

it will take 9 months of real hard work to get the fitness and physicality back.

will he do it?

the answer is no.
 

ClayDeath

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these are my players and it will never ever change:
  1. Vilas
  2. Muster
  3. The Clay Warrior (Rafa)
  4. Emerson
  5. Laver
 

Denis

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This match really is the turning point though in public opinion.

I remember in 2014 people started cautiously mentioning that Rafa was losing it. Then after last years AO people started speculating about the fall, then during the clay season especially after the Madrid loss against Murray people were calling it on the boards: Rafa is done. Now it seems mainstream media is talking about nothing else.

I still expect him to do well during the clay season, he was awful last year and still got some results. He is playing better than that. I don't think though he can beat Djokovic on clay anymore.
 

ClayDeath

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14881 said:
This match really is the turning point though in public opinion. I remember in 2014 people started cautiously mentioning that Rafa was losing it. Then after last years AO people started speculating about the fall, then during the clay season especially after the Madrid loss against Murray people were calling it on the boards: Rafa is done. Now it seems mainstream media is talking about nothing else. I still expect him to do well during the clay season, he was awful last year and still got some results. He is playing better than that. I don’t think though he can beat Djokovic on clay anymore.

he really doesn't have the fitness to beat anybody, let alone the game.

this year could be worse than last year.

 

in fact you can count on it at the current rate.
 

herios

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14883 said:
Denis wrote:
This match really is the turning point though in public opinion. I remember in 2014 people started cautiously mentioning that Rafa was losing it. Then after last years AO people started speculating about the fall, then during the clay season especially after the Madrid loss against Murray people were calling it on the boards: Rafa is done. Now it seems mainstream media is talking about nothing else. I still expect him to do well during the clay season, he was awful last year and still got some results. He is playing better than that. I don’t think though he can beat Djokovic on clay anymore.
he really doesn’t have the fitness to beat anybody, let alone the game. this year could be worse than last year. in fact you can count on it at the current rate.
At least, one of your wishes comes true. Rafa will go very early to South America, perhaps he is on his way already to his buddy, Pico

 

 

 

 
 

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Great post BB, well said.  I was reluctant to write Rafa off, and I am still not doing that, but after a year that he had, I think we are starting to see a decline in Rafa's movement.   He was a beast tracking down every single ball, not even Nole can do that in his prime now.  Rafa used to out work and out last everybody up to few years ago.  Sadly I think that his physical game is the price he is paying now.   The fact that his serve is not a weapon for him or his return, how is he then going to beat the best players, or even the very aggressive ones who happen to go for it on any day and can blow other players off court?    I think that he is still as professional and trains as hard as he can, just might not be enough for the results his fans hope for.  But I won't say that he won't win any big titles, because frankly we don't know that and he won't give up trying.
 

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14901 said:
Clay Death wrote:
<blockquote>
Denis wrote:
This match really is the turning point though in public opinion. I remember in 2014 people started cautiously mentioning that Rafa was losing it. Then after last years AO people started speculating about the fall, then during the clay season especially after the Madrid loss against Murray people were calling it on the boards: Rafa is done. Now it seems mainstream media is talking about nothing else. I still expect him to do well during the clay season, he was awful last year and still got some results. He is playing better than that. I don’t think though he can beat Djokovic on clay anymore.
he really doesn’t have the fitness to beat anybody, let alone the game. this year could be worse than last year. in fact you can count on it at the current rate.</blockquote>
At least, one of your wishes comes true. Rafa will go very early to South America, perhaps he is on his way already to his buddy, Pico

ha ha. so true. now he will play rio and Buenos aires.

but that is not enough. he has to skip Miami but we know he wont.

Â