The Early French Open Thread

[Moxie]

I'm hoping Rafa gets drawn on Roger's side, in Berdych's quarter. That's his best chance to make the final, IMO.

I agree with you. That is definitely the best possible draw for Rafa.

Having said that he also needs benign opponents, especially in the first two rounds
as that is when he is likely to be more vulnerable. He does not want Andujar in R1 and
Verdasco in R2 or something like that.

After first 2 round winds, some confidence will come back to him.

I disagree with you on this: he can deal with types like Verdasco and Andujar in early rounds. They play similarly enough to his game, and they'll give him rhythm. Over 5 sets, I don't give either much chance. What he doesn't want is a tall guy with a big serve, a la Isner in 2011, when his confidence was low. Or a tall guy with an attacking game on a hot streak, like Soderling in 2009. He'll be much more vulnerable to a guy like that in the early rounds than a Spaniard or a general clay-courter. I'm hoping he gets some of those random French WCs to start. :snicker Anyway, I do agree that if he gets a few rounds in, and a decent draw, he'll settle in and make it to the money rounds. But by the QFs he'll need his confidence and his next gear. Not to mention his forehand.

 

[Moose]

Who would be the man Nole would least want to face in the final - if he gets there, and Rafa doesn't?

A Stan in Form.

I wholeheartedly agree with this. Of all the top players, I think Stan frustrates Nole more than anyone else. Don't know why that is, but given their epic Slam battles in the past, I think Stan would be the one player Nole hopes most to avoid at any event, and particularly at a 5 set Slam showdown.

 

[britbox]

^^and..you were wrong about nadals age. that's it.

It makes any difference?

Yes, 2 years if you have ever covered arithmetic.

 

[britbox]

As it stands I find it hard to look beyond Djokovic. Right now, he's in a league of his own. It will take a rapid turnaround by Nadal to make himself relevant in deciding where the trophy is going... 5 set tennis and a couple weeks may help but I wouldn't bet my house on it.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal isn't losing in the first two rounds. Please.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Because of the Nadal situation, this Grand Slam seems like one that is more anticipated than any other in recent history.

Not really, Rafa results was very similar last year leading up to RG with the lone exception of KEI N pulling up lame in the Madrid final.

 

[Kieran]

Because of the Nadal situation, this Grand Slam seems like one that is more anticipated than any other in recent history.

Not really, Rafa results was very similar last year leading up to RG with the lone exception of KEI N pulling up lame in the Madrid final.

He was definitely playing better in Rome last year, though. He reached the final whereas this year, he didn't even make the semis, by playing awful. There is a similarity between this year and last though, in that he's plainly not dominating clay at all. The last seasons he did were 2012 and 2013, but I think this year has a bit in common with last year, and 2011.

And I hope I'm still saying that just after the final... :celeb:

 

[Fiero425]

Because of the Nadal situation, this Grand Slam seems like one that is more anticipated than any other in recent history.

Not really, Rafa results was very similar last year leading up to RG with the lone exception of KEI N pulling up lame in the Madrid final.

uzzled :nono - How so; losing BA to Fabio in the semi this year? His first loss in a clay semi ever! Another 2 losses on clay in Europe, going into Paris without a European clay title! He's ranked #7 so I'm confused unless I'm missing a year of mediocrity! :cover :angel: :dodgy:

 

[herios]

Because of the Nadal situation, this Grand Slam seems like one that is more anticipated than any other in recent history.

Not really, Rafa results was very similar last year leading up to RG with the lone exception of KEI N pulling up lame in the Madrid final.

He was definitely playing better in Rome last year, though. He reached the final whereas this year, he didn't even make the semis, by playing awful. There is a similarity between this year and last though, in that he's plainly not dominating clay at all. The last seasons he did were 2012 and 2013, but I think this year has a bit in common with last year, and 2011.

And I hope I'm still saying that just after the final... :celeb:

In 2011 he was losing only to Djokovic and won MC. He was a lot better than this year.

 

[brokenshoelace]

This year is definitely worse for Nadal than any other year coming into the FO, let's not even make an argument otherwise.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa's looking way worse and Nole is looking way better than last year. But it is best of 5 which I think could help Rafa in a couple ways. I wonder if Nole would actually prefer having Rafa in his Qtr instead of the finals. It increases Nole's chances of not making the final but it also increases Nole's chances of beating Rafa IMO.

 

[Mile]

How long ago one tournament has such importance like this incoming RG 2015 ? High attitudes, expectations, detroning king and geting new one... or huge fiasco at the end.

 

[Kieran]

How long ago one tournament has such importance like this incoming RG 2015 ? High attitudes, expectations, detroning king and geting new one... or huge fiasco at the end.

What would you consider to be a "huge fiasco?"

 

[Mile]

How long ago one tournament has such importance like this incoming RG 2015 ? High attitudes, expectations, detroning king and geting new one... or huge fiasco at the end.

What would you consider to be a "huge fiasco?"

Good question, for some Nadal losing Slam, for some Nole not to win. Thats why this is becoming even biger. So many tennis veterans showed up with prognosis etc etc. Like some "Maywader-Pacman" in tennis is going to happen.

 

[DarthFed]

How long ago one tournament has such importance like this incoming RG 2015 ? High attitudes, expectations, detroning king and geting new one... or huge fiasco at the end.

What would you consider to be a "huge fiasco?"

A certain bast'ad that has a penchant for biting trophies. That's a fiasco.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa's looking way worse and Nole is looking way better than last year. But it is best of 5 which I think could help Rafa in a couple ways. I wonder if Nole would actually prefer having Rafa in his Qtr instead of the finals. It increases Nole's chances of not making the final but it also increases Nole's chances of beating Rafa IMO.

There's pro's and con's in this one, isn't there? Obviously, neither of them should have peaked in the tournament by the quarters, and since Rafa can only get better, this might not be such an enticing prospect for Nole. Plus, even if he wins that match, he then has two further matches to negotiate, where the pressure will only grow exponentially.

But in the plus column, there's less spotlight on the quarters, and there'd be more pressure on Rafa. Facing Nole so early would only highlight how far he is from fully getting back to his best. It might deflate the great champ even more.

As a Rafa fan, I don't mind what stage he's at when he faces Novak, so long as he's making it through the rounds to get there...

 

[nehmeth]

As a Rafa fan, I don't mind what stage he's at when he faces Novak, so long as he's making it through the rounds to get there...

With two losses to the likes of Fognini and another to Stan, that's not a given the way it was in the past.

 

[Kieran]

As a Rafa fan, I don't mind what stage he's at when he faces Novak, so long as he's making it through the rounds to get there...

With two losses to the likes of Fognini and another to Stan, that's not a given the way it was in the past.

It's not, but I'm expecting the return to play in Roland Garros to have a positive effect on him, plus the format of matches will help him too, I hope...

 

[nehmeth]

As a Rafa fan, I don't mind what stage he's at when he faces Novak, so long as he's making it through the rounds to get there...

With two losses to the likes of Fognini and another to Stan, that's not a given the way it was in the past.

It's not, but I'm expecting the return to play in Roland Garros to have a positive effect on him, plus the format of matches will help him too, I hope...

A lot of people have posted about the pressure on Novak. Ralf's made two of the clay finals, but his results this year are worse than last year - when he still found his form and managed to pull out the victory.

He stated about playing here that he may not win, but he expected to play well. I chuckled a little bit as I read that, because playing well here (for Ralf) means he will win. How much pressure do you think he is putting on himself for a tenth trophy?

 

[Kieran]

Rafa always says the right thing. He'll do his best, etc. But I doubt he's feeling more heat this year, because he's won it so often. I think he's probably more concerned about his form. I know he's working his socks off, but is he going to raise his game in time, is the thing...