All is well General Hercules. Have had family visiting this past week...
Interesting draw. Here is my first glance call. I will post a more thorough draw analysis if I have time.
Sample Projected paths for top 4 (nf - non-factor for them):
(When I separate the players by slashes, it means I believe they have a fair chance and could beat the others in their grouping)
Novak Djokovic - nf, nf, Dimitrov, nf, Del Potro, Murray/Berdych/Wawrinka, Nadal/Federer
Novak has a bit of a challenge in Dimitrov early, if they make it that far, but Dimitrov hasn't shown much stamina in best of 3 , let alone best of 5, but Grigor has a chance if he can blitz in 3. But Nole's first big test will be Del Potro, as long as Juan gets past Rusty Hewitt and Tommy Haas. If Del Potro is healthy and gets that far, I think Juan Martin can beat Nole. About 50-50.
Andy Murray - nf, nf, nf, Almagro, Berdych/Wawrinka, Del Potro/Djokovic, Nadal/Federer
Andy has a pretty easy draw, all the way to the QF. Only Almagro has a chance before that, and not a big one. But then it could get tough for Andy, as Berdych or Wawrinka would loom before him. And if he should get past them, either Del Potro or Djokovic would await in the semis.
David Ferrer - nf, nf, Gulbis, Janowicz, Gasquet/Raonic, Nadal/Federer, Murray/Berdych/Del Potro/Djokovic
David Ferrer has not been in the best form recently, but who knows? Gulbis might have a chance, but Ferrer handled him easily in their only meeting. A Janowicz rematch of their Paris final would be interesting. Janowicz was exhausted by the time he got to Ferrer in the final there, playing his 8th match in 9 days. I think Janowicz could beat Ferrer this time in the 4th round. But if not, Ferrer will probably make it to the semis where either Nadal or Federer will be ready to pounce on Ferrer.
Rafael Nadal - nf, nf, Davydenko, Isner, Federer, nf, nf/nf/Del Potro/Djokovic
Nadal has an easy first couple of rounds, but the third could be tricky depending on the health and energy of Davydenko. Kolya has only lost once to Nadal on hard courts in 7 matches and Kolya leads their H2H 6-5. And that loss on hard courts was their first match in 2006. The other 4 wins by Nadal were on clay. They last played in 2012 in Madrid on the blue clay. The last hc match was in Doha in 2011, where Nadal lost 3 and 2. If Nadal gets past Davydenko, he could have to deal with John Isner again in the 4th round, and we saw how close that was on the high bouncing courts this year of Cincinnati. Should Nadal get past Isner, Federer will probably be there in the QF, as I don't see anyone who should be beating him before that; though this year, I guess anything is possible.
Nadal and Federer have never met at the US Open, even though Federer has 5 USO titles and a final to his credit, and Nadal 1 USO title and a final to his. It would be an interesting battle. Nadal certainly is riding high, and has definitely been the best player during 2013 so far, despite missing the AO and exiting early at Wimbledon. Their last match in Cincinnati was closer than it appeared, and in Cincinnati, the bounce was higher this year than in the past as many players mentioned.
The bounce makes all the difference in matches between these two. Nadal wins close to 100% when the bounce is higher, and Federer nearly 100% when the bounce is lower. Fortunately for Nadal, the trend overall on tour in the last few years favors higher bouncing surfaces, and they have mostly met on higher bouncing surfaces and he has won at a rate of 2 in 3 matches. How will it be in New York on Arthur Ashe at night? Arthur Ashe has been slowed over the past 3 years. Weather could also play a factor. Still, they both have to make the semis for this to play out.
Note there is an extra day off between the Semi and Final this year as the Final will be played on Monday.
To sum up, I think each of the top 4 have a fair chance of being beaten before the semifinal. Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal will have real tests in their QFs. And Ferrer could be gone before that.
Respectfully,
masterclass
