Tennis History “What If’s”

[Moxie]

But (seriously), there are a lot of footballers involved in that, right? One way or another it does not look good.

Only if you go by what Fuentes said, and maybe one of the convicted cyclists. It's worth remembering that he was a doctor to cyclists. He claimed footballers and tennis players, when he was being dragged away. Potentially something self-serving in that, if you ask me. Also worth noting that he didn't say Spanish footballers/tennis players, and he had cyclists from many countries, and it wasn't only Spanish cyclists that went down, by a long stretch. The implication of "Spanish" is a read-in by those who want to read it in. Like Front and Darth. And you, as far as I can tell, re: the footballers. (That's a cheeky tweak, not a slag on you.)

Let's be real: @Front242 brings it up in the tennis context, no other, (point of this thread,) and he's not talking about Ferrer, Moyà or Ferrero...he's trying to implicate Nadal. As @brokenshoelace mentions, this went down in May 2006. Painting Nadal with this brush is a trope for certain Federer fans, to try to wash away the pain of what Nadal has done to Roger's legacy, by tarnishing it with a doping allegation. I'm sorry to be boring here, but I am committed to opposing these kinds of slurs on Rafa. The facts work against Nadal doping in this period, or frankly any period. He was 19 when Fuentes was arrested, and about to win his 2nd RG. He had beaten past world #1s/RG winners at 16, and beat Roger at 17. Even before that, his progress was so good that there would be no reason to enhance it with drugs. For sure, even Roger would have had more reason to dope early, as he was not meeting what people considered to be his potential, early on. And Novak hit a big stall after winning the '08 AO. Rafa had no such lag in results really until '11, facing Novak, if you like, or '15-'16.

If you want to talk about Fuentes and La Liga or whatever, go for it. But what Front is trying to put out there is far removed from logic.

 

[Moxie]

A healthy Del Potro and Soderling would have really shaken things up at the top. That's the biggest loss in recent years imo.

I absolutely think that a healthy del Potro would have changed the game over that last 10 years. Even if just a couple of more Majors and MS1000s. I'm not convinced that Soderling was the same. I think of him as more Berdych-like. He had the weapons to spoil, but not so much the real game to win a Major. Or the head. I'm guessing you think that he could have won RG. Given what it's taken to win RG since 2004, I have a hard time believing he'd be in that group, even though he made 2 finals.

 

[mrzz]

About Soderling, I think people don't take in consideration the huge upward trend he was in. It is not just the RG finals, he was getting better and better, and yes, I think he could have been a huge factor as well. The important thing is that, even back then, he was one the very very few that would step into court firmly believing that he could beat the big 3 + 1 (specially from 2009 onwards).

 

[Moxie]

About Soderling, I think people don't take in consideration the huge upward trend he was in. It is not just the RG finals, he was getting better and better, and yes, I think he could have been a huge factor as well. The important thing is that, even back then, he was one the very very few that would step into court firmly believing that he could beat the big 3 + 1 (specially from 2009 onwards).

While I think he demonstrated a great upside, I don't think anyone can claim that he'd have done better than he did.

 

[Jelenafan]

About Soderling, I think people don't take in consideration the huge upward trend he was in. It is not just the RG finals, he was getting better and better, and yes, I think he could have been a huge factor as well. The important thing is that, even back then, he was one the very very few that would step into court firmly believing that he could beat the big 3 + 1 (specially from 2009 onwards).

Uhh.. he was 1-16 versus Methuselah, hardly evident of a firm belief.

ETA: Versus Djokovic 1-6, versus Rafa 2-6

4-28 versus the big 3

 

[mrzz]

Uhh.. he was 1-16 versus Methuselah, hardly evident of a firm belief.

ETA: Versus Djokovic 1-6, versus Rafa 2-6

4-28 versus the big 3

The problem is that this is his lifetime stat against them. If you look at what happened in 2009 and 2010 (excluding 2011 because it is when his condition started to show, even if in early 2011 he was still playing well) you see a COMPLETELY different stat.

So, yeah, the belief was there. With reasons for it.

 

[Ricardo]

I absolutely think that a healthy del Potro would have changed the game over that last 10 years. Even if just a couple of more Majors and MS1000s. I'm not convinced that Soderling was the same. I think of him as more Berdych-like. He had the weapons to spoil, but not so much the real game to win a Major. Or the head. I'm guessing you think that he could have won RG. Given what it's taken to win RG since 2004, I have a hard time believing he'd be in that group, even though he made 2 finals.

Berdych like? I know you are trying but this is silly.

 

[Ricardo]

Uhh.. he was 1-16 versus Methuselah, hardly evident of a firm belief.

ETA: Versus Djokovic 1-6, versus Rafa 2-6

4-28 versus the big 3

simpleton thinking. Stan is similarly bad against Djoker in lifetime h-h, but when it comes to meeting in the biggest matches in recent years he has more than a decent chance to beat Novak. Logic/common sense don't mix with certain fans (if you notice their similarities)

 

[isabelle]

if my aunt had bollocks...

 

[Moxie]

Berdych like? I know you are trying but this is silly.

Why?

 

[Moxie]

The problem is that this is his lifetime stat against them. If you look at what happened in 2009 and 2010 (excluding 2011 because it is when his condition started to show, even if in early 2011 he was still playing well) you see a COMPLETELY different stat.

So, yeah, the belief was there. With reasons for it.

I don't know if this is right. And why exclude 2011? He won 1 title in 2009, 2 in 2010 (one of which was his lone MS1000 in Paris,) and 4 in 2011, though he didn't play the whole year. In 2011, he basically only lost to Big 3 plus del Potro, but not so in 2010. Not really completely different stats. He was on a really good run of winning at the very last, but still not against the Big 3, so the sample size is kind of small to project the future from it, and I don't see why he would have great reason to have a strong belief v. Big 3.

 

[mrzz]

I don't know if this is right. And why exclude 2011? He won 1 title in 2009, 2 in 2010 (one of which was his lone MS1000 in Paris,) and 4 in 2011, though he didn't play the whole year. In 2011, he basically only lost to Big 3 plus del Potro, but not so in 2010. Not really completely different stats. He was on a really good run of winning at the very last, but still not against the Big 3, so the sample size is kind of small to project the future from it, and I don't see why he would have great reason to have a strong belief v. Big 3.

As I said, it was in 2011 that his condition started to manifest itself, so it obviously affected de results. But his 2011 was still better than what I remember.

Breaking down the H2H

Against Nadal

0x2 pre-2009
2x3 2009/2010
0x1 2011

(five matches on clay, two off-clay)

Against Djokovic

0x3 pre-2009
1x1 2009/2010
0x1 2011


Against Federer (by far his worst record)

0x8 pre-2009
1x7 2009/2010
0x1 2011

Against Murray

1x2 pre-2009
1x1 2009/2010

Combined Djokovic, Nadal and Murray

pre-2009 1x7
2009/2010 4x5
2011 0x2



Rankings:

2006: year end: 25 best 25
2007: year end: 41 best 23
2008: year end: 17 best 17
2009: year end: 8 best 8
2010: year end: 5 best 4
2011: year end: 13 best 4
2012: year end 192 best 12


The sample against the big 3 + 1 is small, yes, but it is completely obvious that he was in an upward trend (and two years is not that small) and that trajectory was simply cut off by an external factor (during 2011). His rankings tells the same story.

And, more importantly, I remember the matches. He was taking it to them.

Additional notes is that the guy has an extremely dominant record against second tier players (5x0 against Tsonga, 7x1 against Berdych, 10x4 against Ferrer). Who else has such a record against those guys? Only the big three. A note against my argument is a losing record against del Potro.

So for me is quite obvious he was going to make noise. Another note, he was doing almost 10 years ago what most players are struggling to do now. So, I really cannot see how can anyone doubt that he was going to at least keep doing what he was doing (and that includes beating big boys at the majors). Again, I remember the matches. He was going to do more than that.

 

[Jelenafan]

The problem is that this is his lifetime stat against them. If you look at what happened in 2009 and 2010 (excluding 2011 because it is when his condition started to show, even if in early 2011 he was still playing well) you see a COMPLETELY different stat.



So, yeah, the belief was there. With reasons for it.

Yes in 2009 Soderling was 2-1 versus Nadal, beating him in the FO and in indoor HC at the ATP YE finals. However in 2010 he was 0-2 versus Nadal on red clay and grass.

Versus Methuselah he was 1-7 in 2009-10.

He played Djokovic once in 09-10 beating him for a 1-0 record. Even if you take into account Djokovic wasn’t hitting his stride until 2011 that’s a small statistical sample for them.

So your sample is 2 years only, (09-10) when he was 3-10 versus the big 2, and 4-11 versus the big 3. Other players have had similar stats against the big 3 for a couple of years ( Berdych, Del Potro) but IMO it’s hard to project from that it would have been drastically different tennis history because of the Soderling factor. Other players who actually WON a Major ( versus the big 3+1) ie Del Potro, Cilic didn’t actually sustain that competitiveness consistently over a period of more than a year or two.

Of course the one outlier is Wawrinka.

 

[Jelenafan]

Sorry Mrzz, didn’t see your earlier post, but the point still stands that it’s one thing to say he had won Majors and was going upwards as opposed to saying he was going to win Majors in the future...

 

[Ricardo]

Sorry Mrzz, didn’t see your earlier post, but the point still stands that it’s one thing to say he had won Majors and was going upwards as opposed to saying he was going to win Majors in the future...

That was not his point, learn to read.

 

[brokenshoelace]

But (seriously), there are a lot of footballers involved in that, right? One way or another it does not look good.

I don’t know how many. They said over 30 clients and he said among which are footballers, tennis players and cyclists. So I actually don’t think it’s A LOT of footballers since it’s only 30 clients divided over 3 sports.

 

[Moxie]

As I said, it was in 2011 that his condition started to manifest itself, so it obviously affected de results. But his 2011 was still better than what I remember.

Breaking down the H2H

Against Nadal

0x2 pre-2009
2x3 2009/2010
0x1 2011

(five matches on clay, two off-clay)

Against Djokovic

0x3 pre-2009
1x1 2009/2010
0x1 2011


Against Federer (by far his worst record)

0x8 pre-2009
1x7 2009/2010
0x1 2011

Against Murray

1x2 pre-2009
1x1 2009/2010

Combined Djokovic, Nadal and Murray

pre-2009 1x7
2009/2010 4x5
2011 0x2



Rankings:

2006: year end: 25 best 25
2007: year end: 41 best 23
2008: year end: 17 best 17
2009: year end: 8 best 8
2010: year end: 5 best 4
2011: year end: 13 best 4
2012: year end 192 best 12


The sample against the big 3 + 1 is small, yes, but it is completely obvious that he was in an upward trend (and two years is not that small) and that trajectory was simply cut off by an external factor (during 2011). His rankings tells the same story.

And, more importantly, I remember the matches. He was taking it to them.

Additional notes is that the guy has an extremely dominant record against second tier players (5x0 against Tsonga, 7x1 against Berdych, 10x4 against Ferrer). Who else has such a record against those guys? Only the big three. A note against my argument is a losing record against del Potro.

So for me is quite obvious he was going to make noise. Another note, he was doing almost 10 years ago what most players are struggling to do now. So, I really cannot see how can anyone doubt that he was going to at least keep doing what he was doing (and that includes beating big boys at the majors). Again, I remember the matches. He was going to do more than that.

In many ways, you and I said they same things, though I said them and round terms, and you gave stats. (Thanks.) But we have a different conclusion, to some extent. (You are more certain, while I am more skeptical about where it would lead.) I will respect that you remember watching him play, when he started coming well-into his own, and I don't really. I remember his 2 signature matches, the RG v Nadal in '09, and the one v. Fed in '10, of course, but not a lot of his late '10, early '11 until the end. I don't think there was any evidence that he was ill in 2011, as he was having his best year ever. He won the last tournament he played. (Sweden.) If Front were suspicious about doping in anyone but Nadal, he'd think this was mysterious, but no matter.

Borg pegged Robbie early for top status. It took him longer than expected, but he did make good on his great upsets, unlike so many others. Sure, he was very good, also pretty erratic, and didn't have a great head. But, hey, you could say the same about Wawrinka, and he won 3 Majors, and Wawrinka's only a year younger. But then, I think, they'd have been competing for the same open slots, and it's possible if Soderling won a Major, Stan might have won less. Del Potro I see differently, if you know what I mean.

 

[brokenshoelace]

In terms of eye-test, and I fully acknowledge how subjective this is, Soderling looked to me a step below his 2009/2010 level in 2011.

 

[mrzz]

Funny enough one of the matches I have a better recollection about Soderling is the Brisbane final in 2011 (beating Roddick). It is an ATP 250, yes, but that day I said to myself "this guy is playing absolute top level tennis".

The evidence that he was experiencing effects of his condition in 2011 is partly already shown in the data above. If you look closer to his rankings history, you see that from his peak #4 during 2011, he had a small decline during the year dropping to #6, to finally fall to #13 by year end.

Then, you can see his rankings in 2012 month by month:

Jan: 14
Feb: 25
March: 30
April: 32
May: 67
June: 154
July: 194

So of course the guy was trying to hang in there, specially in 2011, but looking at his extremely sharp drop in early 2012, it is a huge stretch to assume that he was completely ok in the initial part of his way down, which happened in 2011. I don't know the details, but I would bet that during the year he probably had to stop for a few weeks often to fight the early effects of mono.

Answering a comment from @Jelenafan, I fully agree that nothing can be considered as a completely reliable indicator that someone will start to win majors in the future. I don't know what else could anyone else have done at that time (apart from winning a major). So, yes, it is obviously subjective in the end, but the guy gave as possible reasons to believe as anyone possibly could.

 

[Moxie]

Funny enough one of the matches I have a better recollection about Soderling is the Brisbane final in 2011 (beating Roddick). It is an ATP 250, yes, but that day I said to myself "this guy is playing absolute top level tennis".

The evidence that he was experiencing effects of his condition in 2011 is partly already shown in the data above. If you look closer to his rankings history, you see that from his peak #4 during 2011, he had a small decline during the year dropping to #6, to finally fall to #13 by year end.

Then, you can see his rankings in 2012 month by month:

Jan: 14
Feb: 25
March: 30
April: 32
May: 67
June: 154
July: 194

So of course the guy was trying to hang in there, specially in 2011, but looking at his extremely sharp drop in early 2012, it is a huge stretch to assume that he was completely ok in the initial part of his way down, which happened in 2011. I don't know the details, but I would bet that during the year he probably had to stop for a few weeks often to fight the early effects of mono.

Answering a comment from @Jelenafan, I fully agree that nothing can be considered as a completely reliable indicator that someone will start to win majors in the future. I don't know what else could anyone else have done at that time (apart from winning a major). So, yes, it is obviously subjective in the end, but the guy gave as possible reasons to believe as anyone possibly could.

Mrzz, you missed where I said this above, but Soderling didn't play another match after he won Bstaad (Swedish Open) in July of 2011. His ranking dropped in April of 2011 from 4 to 5, and his clay results weren't great, so that may have been the indicator, but all drop after that was due to lack of play.