Roland Garros / French Open 2023 [Men] - Grand Slam

[Moxie]

Oh my! Where've you been hiding?

I love the Baron like a brother, but he just came out presuming that Nadal fans would be as upset as the Fed fans were about Nadal potentially losing his lead in the Slam count.

No one gave Djokovic a chance yesterday and w/o gloating, I like to point out their folly! It's been shameful for quite a while now!

This is patently untrue, but just like Fox News, you think if you keep slinging it, it'll stick. Basically everyone on this thread expected yesterday's match to be tight, and more than a few, for example Kieran, said you can't bet against Novak. There is nothing wrong with people hoping that Alcaraz would pull off the win. That's not even hate-watching...Alcaraz has genuine fans on here, myself included. I know your hyperbole knows no bounds, but spreading lies that are provably false should be the limit.

 

[Kieran]

They also insisted that the disparate H2H between Nadal and Federer didn't matter, as long as Federer was in command in the Slam count. When Rafa tied Roger in the Slam count, they assured us, (figuring it would never happen,) THEN the H2H would matter, and we could discuss. Except they abdicated before we had a chance to discuss it in the context of a tie in the Slam race, and then Rafa subsequently passing Roger in it. #chickens

I'm with you. I'm more than happy with all that Rafa has accomplished, and will forever be a proud fan. It's the Fed fans that were invested in the Slams, as you say. Honestly, a while back, I was going to be happy if he got #15 to pass Pete, which took 3 years.

Very much agree. As a Borg fossil and Sampras cheerleader, Rafa has upheld the aesthetic. Football fans are tied unfortunately for life to a single club, but fans of an individual sport align themselves to an aesthetic, and Rafa has ticked all the boxes of my aesthetic tennis player family tree..

 

[Jelenafan]

I feel like I'm in a time-warp, reading the last 2 pages. Is it Sunday afternoon, and Novak already won the title? While he's highly favored, the match has yet to be played. (See @MikeOne's post, above.)

He’s going to win. I garauntee it.

 

[Fiero425]

He’s going to win. I garauntee it.

I hate presuming, but can't see how Ruud can muster the game to even stay in the match! He should go down in straights, but I won't add this FO to Novak's fan blog until the championship point is won! Karma w/b a b!tch if I were to presume too soon in writing!

 

[britbox]

This "Slam absolutism" becomes rather tedious. Novak going +1 over Rafa doesn't automatically crown him GOAT. There are other factors that should be considered. If we want statistical backing, I'd say +200 weeks at #1 is a stronger argument (or technically +178 as he's at 387, but he's got a good chance of reaching 400+). But even then, you can't stop there...just using that as a more significant element of Novak's resume that stands out.

I do think Novak has the best statistical resume of any player - that is pretty much inarguable at this point. But as important as Slams are, you can't just ignore everything else. Otherwise we're back to silly notions like Jan Kodes (3 Slams) was greater than Ilie Nastase (2 Slams). Or Gaudio was greater than a couple dozen better Slamless players.

The Slam record is meaningful, and it does offer a certain degree of bragging rights. But reducing everything to that single number is rather silly.

Or to put it another way, the Slam record is the biggest jewel in the crown, but not the only jewel - and not the whole crown.

I actually agree. That is why I said transcendent GOAT - because he will be perceived to be by more casual observers who will look at that statistic without any nuance. However, when you look at the body of work with context, it doesn't really change much - indeed might even rubber stamp it. Incidentally, when the media crowned Pete "the GOAT" - it was purely based on overtaking Roy Emerson's major count. No serious tennis observer ever had Emerson as the mystical GOAT. In fact, the whole GOAT phenomenon seemed to get traction courtesy of Michael Jordan and Basketball. Prior to that, being "one of the greatest ever" was more than sufficient.

 

[Moxie]

Ruud has a legitimate chance, especially tomorrow.

Tennis is very psychological, sometimes it’s just about the law of averages catching up.

1.Ruud is too good to never beat djoker, he’s 0-4, he’s primed for a win.
2. He’s peaking at the right time after a subpar season
3. This is his 3rd slam final. If it were his first, i would give him little chance but he has the experience now.
4. He’s younger and fresher. Novak vs alcaraz was intense, even if was just two hard fought sets. Even carlitos body broke down.
5. Djokovic will have the pressure as favorite and with chance to break slam record
6. This is Ruud’s favourite surface
7. Djokovic will go into final feeling like he already played the final when he beat alcaraz, he may experience a drop in intensity. This is what happened in 2021 when he beat rafa in semis and started against tsitsipas lacking the same intensity he had against rafa and saw himself down 2 sets. Same thing happened when he lost to stan in finals after beating nadal earlier

Of course djokovic has a lot on his side being the better player overall, having more experience but the margins are small. The difference between novak and ruud is small, maybe a bit better backhand, movement etc.. any of above factors can be an equalizer or tip things in Ruud’s favour. Ruud is primed for a win and will be ready. If novak plays his best, he wins but that’s hard to do day in day out and any mental or physical factor can decide the match.

Tactically, ruud has a big weapon - forehand. His serve is good. His bh is not comparable to djokovic’s. I think if Ruud just tries to hit fh winners like mad, he will lose but if he plays consistent, dictates with his forehand without red lining and get gets to djokovic mentally and physically, he can win. Somehow, i feel he has a good shot given the circumstances and factors i mention.

I agree with many of your points as to why Ruud has a shot, or why, at least, it could be a well-contested final and not a mere coronation.

Your #7 is especially interesting, but contains one factual error: In 2015, when Novak lost to Stan in the finals, Nadal had withdrawn due to injury. Novak only won the title once going through Rafa, and that was in 2021.

But to your #7 point, I think there could be a drop in intensity after Friday. If you feel you need to peak for the SF, it could disrupt rhythm. Plus, there's just the pressure of the closing of opportunities, and he's succumbed to it before.

Surely, Ruud has to play his best tennis, and consistently. He has to do what Medvedev did to him at the USO in 2021, when Novak was going for the CYGS: get right up on top of him, keep the pressure on, and make him feel like it's slipping away. I think Stan got him the same way in the 2015 RG. Novak won the first, thought it was tight, then tried to just play not to lose. He gave Stan space to build confidence. Casper doesn't have Stan's ability to hit through Novak. Nor Meddie's quirkiness, serve and height. He absolutely will have to play an immaculate first set, and then see how much he can work the old man's body and nerves. Big ask. But one thing Ruud is is sturdy. And he's peaking at the right time.

 

[Moxie]

He’s going to win. I garauntee it.

Forgive me if this is rude, but I'll take the spelling error as a sign. I know I'm a bitch and an old schoolmarm, but I am grasping at straws here.

 

[Jelenafan]

Forgive me if this is rude, but I'll take the spelling error as a sign. I know I'm a bitch and an old schoolmarm, but I am grasping at straws here.

 

[Moxie]

I actually agree. That is why I said transcendent GOAT - because he will be perceived to be by more casual observers who will look at that statistic without any nuance. However, when you look at the body of work with context, it doesn't really change much - indeed might even rubber stamp it. Incidentally, when the media crowned Pete "the GOAT" - it was purely based on overtaking Roy Emerson's major count. No serious tennis observer ever had Emerson as the mystical GOAT. In fact, the whole GOAT phenomenon seemed to get traction courtesy of Michael Jordan and Basketball. Prior to that, being "one of the greatest ever" was more than sufficient.

I've always said the GOAT thing goes back to Michael Jordan. I think it also tracks to the internet age. Not only could sports pundits debate sports greatness, we all could, on the internet. I'm not sure what a "transcendent" GOAT means, or your recent "stylistic" GOAT, for Roger. (Which, sadly, never caught on.)

It's worth remembering that, while Roger is done, Rafa is not. Everyone keeps trying to call this some version of a closed question, including a couple of years ago, when some folks were happy to decide it was a done deal, with Rafa ending with the fewest Majors. Oops.

For what it's worth, when Rafa got to 21 and 22, ahead of Roger and Novak, I don't think most Rafa fans around here screamed out "GOAT," though the tennis pundits liked to do it. This is a complicated discussion. And @El Dude has quoted me correctly to say that I don't think you'll ever separate the 3 of them, effectively.

 

[Moxie]

View attachment 8283

If that's correct, then Ruud wins!

 

[britbox]

I've always said the GOAT thing goes back to Michael Jordan. I think it also tracks to the internet age. Not only could sports pundits debate sports greatness, we all could, on the internet. I'm not sure what a "transcendent" GOAT means, or your recent "stylistic" GOAT, for Roger. (Which, sadly, never caught on.)

It's worth remembering that, while Roger is done, Rafa is not. Everyone keeps trying to call this some version of a closed question, including a couple of years ago, when some folks were happy to decide it was a done deal, with Rafa ending with the fewest Majors. Oops.

For what it's worth, when Rafa got to 21 and 22, ahead of Roger and Novak, I don't think most Rafa fans around here screamed out "GOAT," though the tennis pundits liked to do it. This is a complicated discussion. And @El Dude has quoted me correctly to say that I don't think you'll ever separate the 3 of the, effectively.

Transcendent as in the definition of how his legacy carries over outside of the sport itself, especially in future years. Stylistic GOAT was a preference of my own. Similar to Kieran's aesthetic view of how a player fits a certain type. I don't think the intention was for it to "catch on".

There were plenty of Rafa fans screaming GOAT... one or two even had it in their username... and that was fine. I don't think all Rafa fans have the same collective thought processes by the way. Jelenafan made an interesting point about being an Edberg fan, which makes us part of that same club. What's the collective "Edberg Fan" view? - that's right, there isn't one.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

When talking about Novak's 2015 run, don't forget about the semifinal match against Andy Murray. Not putting away the match in the 3rd and 4th sets, and having to come back out on Saturday, put Novak at a disadvantage. I knew there was no way whoever won that 5th set was going to beat a rested Stan.

 

[Fiero425]

When talking about Novak's 2015 run, don't forget about the semifinal match against Andy Murray. Not putting away the match in the 3rd and 4th sets, and having to come back out on Saturday, put Novak at a disadvantage. I knew there was no way whoever won that 5th set was going to beat a rested Stan.

Novak's had a lot of bad luck @ the FO w/ a Murray WD changing his seed, bad weather w/ rain & wind, & of course continued success of Rafa!

 

[Kieran]

Novak's had a lot of bad luck @ the FO w/ a Murray WD changing his seed, bad weather w/ rain & wind, & of course continued success of Rafa!

Actually, Novak begged the umpire for rain in 2012 against Rafa, because the bloody stupid Paris summer was too hot and dry - funny enough the way Paris summers usually are..

 

[Moxie]

Transcendent as in the definition of how his legacy carries over outside of the sport itself, especially in future years. Stylistic GOAT was a preference of my own. Similar to Kieran's aesthetic view of how a player fits a certain type. I don't think the intention was for it to "catch on".

OK, but these are definitions of yours, that you like. As @El Dude says, rightly, the problem will always be defining terms of what a GOAT is. I mean, you can't even agree that Nadal is the Clay GOAT, so I'm not sure about your definitions.

There were plenty of Rafa fans screaming GOAT... one or two even had it in their username... and that was fine. I don't think all Rafa fans have the same collective thought processes by the way. Jelenafan made an interesting point about being an Edberg fan, which makes us part of that same club. What's the collective "Edberg Fan" view? - that's right, there isn't one.

Those were 2 Nadal trolls, and I know you know what/who I mean. I'm as fanatical as they come as a Nadal fan, and I've never seen the Slam race as over. (Well, except now, as far as Roger is concerned.) And, as I have always said, I don't believe in one GOAT. But thanks for appreciating that not all Rafa fans think or speak in one mind. We don't, as Fed fans don't, Edberg fans, etc.

 

[Kieran]

"clay GOAT - maybe?" will probably be the order of things, in reality. That in itself is actually a huge success... lost on many.

Just reflecting on this, we tend to slightly ignore that the “clay goat” has 4 US Opens from his last 9 played, which is only one short of the record…

 

[Fiero425]

Just reflecting on this, we tend to slightly ignore that the “clay goat” has 4 US Opens from his last 9 played, which is only one short of the record…

I never ignored that fact! The USO is one of those freaky majors that for many reasons, success and failure can't be predicted! I lived thru Borg's attempts on 3 different surfaces, the notable 8 straight finals of Lendl w/ 3 wins, Martina going thru her growing pains ending up w/ only 4, & then unprecedented success of 5 in a row w/ Federer before he dropped off the map getting burned by Novak again and again! I've always been embarrassed by the USO; a 2nd rate major being played under horrible conditions at times w/ bad weather, oppressive heat, gun play, asaults, a murder, planes flying over non-stop back in the day, & fraud needing the draw to be redone at least twice! It should have been moved somewhere else years ago!

 

[Moxie]

Actually, Novak begged the umpire for rain in 2012 against Rafa, because the bloody stupid Paris summer was too hot and dry - funny enough the way Paris summers usually are..

I thought it was in 2013 in the SF that Novak begged the umpire to water the court, but could have been both. In 2012, he only won a set because it rained.

And here is Fiero crying about "bad luck." (And swears he "won't be a hypocrite!" ) It comes to them all. They make fun of Nadal fans for bemoaning his injury issues, but at the slightest option, they moan just as hard. And Rafa, at 22 Majors and counting, still has a higher win pct. at Majors than Novak or Roger, given how many he's missed, due to injury.

 

[Moxie]

I never ignored that fact! The USO is one of those freaky majors that for many reasons, success and failure can't be predicted! I lived thru Borg's attempts on 3 different surfaces, the notable 8 straight finals of Lendl w/ 3 wins, Martina going thru her growing pains ending up w/ only 4, & then unprecedented success of 5 in a row w/ Federer before he dropped off the map getting burned by Novak again and again! I've always been embarrassed by the USO; a 2nd rate major being played under horrible conditions at times w/ bad weather, oppressive heat, gun play, asaults, a murder, planes flying over non-stop back in the day, & fraud needing the draw to be redone at least twice! It should have been moved somewhere else years ago!

The USO is only a "freaky" major in your opinion because Novak has made so many finals, and not won more, even though he's a HC "master." What does it say that Rafa has beaten him in not one but two finals there? And both in 4. It should say, to your tennis history brain, that maybe Rafa is better on HCs than you and many others give him credit for. It bothers you that the outcome is unpredictable? I thought you didn't like your tennis predictable.

Oppressive heat at a Major? Can you say "Australia?" Gunplay and murder, I don't know what you're talking about. Planes flying over? They changed the flight path. Did you not hear a plane flying over in Paris during the women's final today? You're just looking for reasons to complain. (What's new?)

 

[Moxie]

"clay GOAT - maybe?" will probably be the order of things, in reality. That in itself is actually a huge success... lost on many.

I'm pretty sure it's not lost on anyone, except maybe you. "Will probably be the order of things?" Of all of the records of the Big 3, Rafa's on clay are likely to stand the longest. Without revisiting everything, he's won the FO 14 and counting. (Closest is Chris Evert, with 7, in men's, Borg, with 6.) For a man to surpass that, he'd have to play Roland Garros at least 15 times, which is hard enough, and win it at least that many times. Rafa has a 91% win rate on clay. Roger 89% on grass, Novak 85% on HC. (All records.) Nadal is 137-3 in best of 5 on clay. That will stand the test of time, for a while. As will his 81 consecutive wins on clay. Single surface record. Roger's on grass is 65, and Novak's on HC is 45 (not sure if that is the record.)

So, I think you can put away the "maybe." And this is why folks like El Dude say that the GOAT discussion is complicated.