Roland Garros 2018, Paris, France, ATP GRAND SLAM

[herios]

@GameSetAndMath : Andújar IS playing! On protected ranking. He's got Fognini first round. That could be fun.

Smart by him. It means he did not use up his PR slots in meaningless tournaments.
Not just a pretty face...

 

[MartyB]

Come on....please, I haven’t said it’s a dificult draw formNadal but look this one:
Federer’s draw AO
Bedene
Struff
Gasquet
Fucsovics
Berdych
Chung
Cilic

Still tougher than Nadal's drawn.

 

[Moxie]

Still tougher than Nadal's drawn.

It's impossible to compare a finished draw to a potential one, but if Rafa gets Shapalov or Sock in the 3rd round that could be argued as tougher than Gasquet for Rog. Still...pfft. (Though forgive me if I chose to worry about Shapo.) Still, as I said above, when Roger and Rafa are in good shape and playing on their best surfaces, it's easy to complain that their draws were easy, especially if Djokovic and Murray are out or out of form, and other best players not top-form, either. Last Wimbledon looked like a walk in the park, too, by the end. It's not Roger's fault that he's that much better than everyone else on offer, or at their current forms. My point is why argue easy draws when one player is miles ahead of the competition. At Wimbledon last year, I would have said that the most in-form player that Roger might have faced in the final was Cilic, and we know how that went. Likewise, I think the only one people could have hoped to meet Rafa in the 2017 RG final was Wawrinka, and so it goes.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I honestly don't think I've read a single stupider tennis-related narrative this year than "the 10-time champion who only lost twice at the competition has a cake-walk draw."

 

[MartyB]

It's impossible to compare a finished draw to a potential one, but if Rafa gets Shapalov or Sock in the 3rd round that could be argued as tougher than Gasquet for Rog. Still...pfft. (Though forgive me if I chose to worry about Shapo.) Still, as I said above, when Roger and Rafa are in good shape and playing on their best surfaces, it's easy to complain that their draws were easy, especially if Djokovic and Murray are out or out of form, and other best players not top-form, either. Last Wimbledon looked like a walk in the park, too, by the end. It's not Roger's fault that he's that much better than everyone else on offer, or at their current forms. My point is why argue easy draws when one player is miles ahead of the competition. At Wimbledon last year, I would have said that the most in-form player that Roger might have faced in the final was Cilic, and we know how that went. Likewise, I think the only one people could have hoped to meet Rafa in the 2017 RG final was Wawrinka, and so it goes.

My only contention is that the elite clay court players are in the other draw. "Shapo" and Sock are not elite by any stretch on this surface plus a wounded DelPo? Or "Cilic" on clay...Nadal may not drop 4 games in a set the entire tournament.

 

[Moxie]

My only contention is that the elite clay court players are in the other draw. "Shapo" and Sock are not elite by any stretch on this surface plus a wounded DelPo? Or "Cilic" on clay...Nadal may not drop 4 games in a set the entire tournament.

Maybe this is a conversation for another day, or another thread, but I don't think that "elite clay court players" are the threat to Rafa. Elite players would be, and big hitters. The exception would be Thiem, as he's considered currently 2nd best on clay. The best players are inarguably on the other side of the draw. But I would still contend that the bigger threats to Nadal in his draw are a power hitter with spin like Sock, or a wildly talented, swing-for-the-fences youngster like Shapo, who has beaten him (albeit on grass.) Nadal has proven over the years that it's not the clay-courters that beat him at RG.

 

[Moxie]

I honestly don't think I've read a single stupider tennis-related narrative this year than "the 10-time champion who only lost twice at the competition has a cake-walk draw."

That puts my argument more succinctly.

 

[brokenshoelace]

But, for the sake of it, let's have a serious conversation about the draw, and the field's chances in general:

Some of the names who aren't in Nadal's half are irrelevant. Obviously, the bottom half is stronger, no doubt about it, but are we seriously lamenting Nishikori being in the bottom half? What chance would you have given him against Nadal at RG...10%? I legitimately think that's way too generous... so, 5%? Is that what we're fretting over then, a 5%-10% chance? Alright, so what about Wawrinka? Even if we ignore last year's final (and Nadal's ridiculously lopsided h2h record against him...It's 16-3 by the way), Stan is returning from injury and hasn't done anything relevant this year yet...but he's a threat to Nadal at RG? So what about Goffin? Well, he's Goffin... So, that pretty much settles that.

Keep in mind, seeding matters. So we can't lament Nadal not being able to play Zverev before the final... They're the top 2 seeds. They can't play before the finals. However, it's important to note that Zverev, to my knowledge, has never even made it to the second week of a major. If I'm an "anyone but Rafa" fan, Zverev not being able to play Rafa until the final can be a good thing as it means Zverev would have to play the tennis of his life to get to the final, where things, theoretically, can be interesting (of course you can counter-argue by talking about pressure, the moment being too big, and you'd have a point, but it's Nadal in the final of RG...you're an underdog no matter who you are).

Thiem being in the other half is definitely good for Rafa. No debates there.

Djokovic to me, is the most interesting case. Yes, in theory, if Nadal were to play say: Djokovic in the QF, Thiem in the semis, and Zverev in the final, his draw would be "tough." Except, out of those 3, only one guy has a realistic chance, and that's Djokovic (if you want to believe Thiem or Zverev have a good chance that's on you). In his current form, you would much rather for Djokovic not to play Nadal until the final, because by then, this would mean Novak has A) played well B) beaten some good players and C) gained confidence...none of these things he's managed to do all year. Yes it also means he's playing Nadal at his peak, but given the current situation, I'd say Novak would prefer to play him in the final, which wouldn't have been true in previous years.

Now to look at the guys who could actually play Nadal... To me Cilic/DP, should one of them make the semis, are actually interesting opponents. By now we all recognize a number of factors have to come into play to beat Nadal at RG, but 2 that always come up are: Opponent catching fire, and Nadal having an off day. They definitely have the type of game that A) is very dangerous if they catch fire and B) are perfect to punish Nadal if he is having an off day. Despite his dominance last year, Nadal actually had slow starts in both the semis and the final. He was nervous (acknowledged as much), was dropping the ball short, and playing tentatively. Problem is, so where Thiem and Stan, and they failed to capitalize. What ended up happening was Nadal broke first, gained confidence, won the first set, and pretty much crushed them from there. If he actually loses the first set, you take away that insurance policy and all of a sudden he may not be as confident in stepping up his game and cruise...

I'm not trying to say this is a tough draw or anything... but I've always maintained that a DP/Cilic type player, on a good day, is more dangerous than the usual suspects... and Novak is always the guy with the best chance to beat him, and the possibility of him making it to the final makes things slightly more interesting.

 

[Moxie]

^ I've made much the same argument without the fine detail. Thanks. I still think the only one to beat him is Djokovic, and I do think he's better off playing Rafa in a final, for chances of beating him.

 

[Front242]

Imo, the only chance anyone has of beating Nadal is if it's a cold, damp day AND he's up against a ball basher/intelligent aggressive player with a very good serve and hits flat and takes away his time AND they play him on court Suzanne Lenglen which plays typically a good deal faster than centre court Philippe Chatrier. The chances of all those happening are slim to none.

Basically a hard hitter with a big serve needs help from the weather to neutralize Nadal's loopy topspin so cooler and damper air is what the opponent needs. Nadal dislikes these conditions and much prefers hot and sunny days when his topspin makes his shots hit shoulder height and is often unplayable.

 

[Moxie]

Imo, the only chance anyone has of beating Nadal is if it's a cold, damp day AND he's up against a ball basher/intelligent aggressive player with a very good serve and hits flat and takes away his time AND they play him on court Suzanne Lenglen which plays typically a good deal faster than centre court Philippe Chatrier. The chances off all those happening are slim to none.

And even then it would be a tough ask. In best of 5, no one has the spite and venom that Soderling had in his mind for revenge. It would take an amazing good day by anyone on offer.

 

[Front242]

And even then it would be a tough ask. In best of 5, no one has the spite and venom that Soderling had in his mind for revenge. It would take an amazing good day by anyone on offer.

Don't worry, it won't happen.

 

[Mastoor]

This is a likely path for Nole on his way to the final with Rafa:

R1 Qualifier
R2 Ferrer
R3 Bautista
R4 Dimitrov
QF Goffin
SF Zverev/Thiem

It couldn't have been more evened out past round 1, all the good players, which means plenty of good practice for Nole, but also possibility of long matches in case he has a bad day.

 

[Moxie]

Don't worry, it won't happen.

Of that, I'm not worried. It's only happened once. Under very specific circumstances.

 

[Front242]

Of that, I'm not worried. It's only happened once. Under very specific circumstances.

Exactly. Frankly, I doubt there are many Nadal fans worried right now. On the other hand, my confidence in Federer winning Wimbledon is diminished quite a bit and I've a feeling he won't win it this year.

 

[Moxie]

This is a likely path for Nole on his way to the final with Rafa:

R1 Qualifier
R2 Ferrer
R3 Bautista
R4 Dimitrov
QF Goffin
SF Zverev/Thiem

It couldn't have been more evened out past round 1, all the good players, which means plenty of good practice for Nole, but also possibility of long matches in case he has a bad day.

I made the case, above, for a Djokovic path to the final. I don't think it's at all fantastical. I think it would help him if he doesn't play too many long matches, and someone knocks a tough opponent out of his way, along the path. This will be a fitness and commitment test, but his path to the 4th round is completely doable. The 2nd week will show us a lot more where he is in his comeback.

 

[Front242]

I personally doubt Zverev or Thiem will make it to the SF.

 

[Mastoor]

I personally doubt Zverev or Thiem will make it to the SF.

...because....

 

[Moxie]

Exactly. Frankly, I doubt there are many Nadal fans worried right now. On the other hand, my confidence in Federer winning Wimbledon is diminished quite a bit and I've a feeling he won't win it this year.

Why the sudden lack in confidence? Nothing has changed. Roger isn't playing here. He's doing what he did last year to protect his Wimbledon. I think you're just feeling superstitious.

 

[Moxie]

...because....

(Not waiting for the other shoe to drop...) because Djokovic is the other option. I personally hope that we get a Rafa/Novak final.