Roger's Quest for #1 (and Rafa's QF exit implications)

[GameSetAndMath]

I think he will play Dubai and I hope he does. Might as well go for the #1 now in a tournament that isn't near a major. And the reason I say that is that I don't want him to chase it later in the year and do something stupid like last year.

While I agree with you, under the same logic he should actually play Rotterdam. That more or less guarantees that he will get #1 (even if lasts only a few weeks). To compensate, he can skip either Dubai or Miami (former if he does not plan to play on clay and the later if he plans to play on clay).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In case you guys have not read the analysis, 76% of all points (independent of who won them) in the final were decided within a maximum of 4 shots (two shots from each player, the serve is counted as 1 shot). Fed essentially forces this kind of play on hard courts and on grass. However, on clay this percentage will come down to somewhere between 20 and 40. As a result, there will be lot of grinding rallies. That is the concern for Fed (especially after Knee operation).

Further, there is the added concern of "forgetting" this aggressive style of play, if he grinds for a while on clay before Wimbledon.

But, I would like to see Fed play on clay (just Rome and RG). With Novak and Stan not reaching form (at least not as of yet) and
Murray out of action (not to mention a host of others), it is not unimaginable for Fed to win RG, especially if someone else is upset
along the way.

Perhaps, Fed should announce publicly that he is retiring from Clay after this season and then play just Rome and RG.
Fed kind of made a semi-formal announcement before that he is retiring from Davis Cup and has not played in it since.
It looks like he is not keen on playing in 2020 Olympics either. It appears that there is a secret plan of retirement at the
end of 2019 Basel Tourney (or at the end of WTF of 2019 if he qualifies).

 

[El Dude]

Is this inside info or conjecture, Game?

I was kind of hoping that Fed would stick around until 2021, so he could retire at 40 years old. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him play maybe two more years "three-quarters time" years like 2017, so 2018-19, then taper off over a couple years and retire at Basel in 2021. But again, that's pure conjecture and wishful thinking.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Is this inside info or conjecture, Game?

I was kind of hoping that Fed would stick around until 2021, so he could retire at 40 years old. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him play maybe two more years "three-quarters time" years like 2017, so 2018-19, then taper off over a couple years and retire at Basel in 2021. But again, that's pure conjecture and wishful thinking.

No inside info. I don't claim to be privy to what happens in the inner circles of Federer. All my speculation is based on publicly available information (but not an ordinary follower will bother to access). I am putting together two pieces of separate information. One is the following interview. I will post the second piece separately.

Here is a verbatim exchange in a presser last year.

Q. You talked the other day about next year's schedule. You said that all options are on the table. Looking a bit further ahead, if you want to play Tokyo 2020, if you do...
ROGER FEDERER: Okay (smiling).

Q. ...you would have to play two Davis Cup ties at some point. Have you thought at all about when you might schedule these in?
ROGER FEDERER: No, I haven't. I didn't even know the rule, so thanks for the information (laughter).

I haven't officially retired from the Davis Cup, so not because of that reason. It's just because it's always highly unlikely that I'll play at this stage of my career.

You know, I haven't set Tokyo Olympics as a goal either. It hurt not being in Rio, but I was okay without it, too. I was flag bearer twice. I won gold. I won silver. I feel like I achieved a lot of great things at the Olympics.

I'm not thinking that far ahead, yeah.

I can visualize Roger playing in 2020 and beyond and I also can visualize Roger retiring in 2019. But, at least to me, it is difficult to imagine that he will be playing in the circuit in 2020, but still skip Olympics considering the coveted OSG is missing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger extended his with Basel tournament in early 2017 for a period of three more years. The three year period ends with Basel tourney in 2019.

 

[Moxie]

You're basically saying that you think Roger is in for 22 more months, max.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You're basically saying that you think Roger is in for 22 more months, max.

No, it is more of a min. i.e, Roger won't retire before 2019 Basel. These contracts can always be renegotiated for another few
years once they expire, if one chooses to.

 

[El Dude]

There was a tone to his speech at the AO that makes me think we're getting close to the end. I hope I'm wrong. But his incredulity...it is like he thinks he's on borrowed time. I think in some ways it is helping him, because he's staying pretty calm - realizing that any more wins are icing on the cake.

I think we'll see another 1-2 years at a "semi-full" time, and then maybe 1-2 years of reduced tournaments. So 2-4 years, but I don't think 5.

It all depends on his level. If he's fading towards the end of 2018, then I think he'll seriously consider retiring after Basel in 2019. But if the fire is still there, along with the wins, then he'll play 2019 like 2017-18.

All just speculation. Either way he's going to finish with 20+ Slams, 100+ titles, probably 30+ Masters. Not too shabby.

 

[10isfan]

In my fantasy tennis world, Fed flies to Mexico and beats Nadal to claim the number one ranking.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If people really want to know, when Fed would retire, read this article. Fed admits that he would retire if this happens . Before you read it try to guess the answer.

 

[El Dude]

My first guess is it is family related. My second guess is if he thought he no longer had a serious chance to win a Slam.

EDIT: Wrong on both accounts, although my second guess is partially true, if only through correlation.

 

[mrzz]

If people really want to know, when Fed would retire, read this article. Fed admits that he would retire if this happens . Before you read it try to guess the answer.

Board posters would became rational? All majors would be played on clay? Three straight losses to Dimitrov?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is old news. But, there appears to be some sort of tension between Fed and Rotterdam tournament director and former pro Krajicek. Read this article which says Rotterdam ignores Federer published in Oct. 2017. This is another reason why Fed may not play at Rotterdam.

Also, Fed had said that last year he was not fully prepared to play in Dubai as he was in a high after winning AO. Given that Rotterdam is earlier on the calendar by two more weeks, Fed will definitely not have time to prepare for it after a week of partying and a week of family time. He has now learnt that it is not a good idea to participate in a tournament without being fully prepared.

So, I think for all practical purposes Rotterdam will not happen.

Given that one cannot get appearance fee at the GSs and also at the mandatory ATP 1000 events and given that Roger plays very few other events, he would try to milk as much money out of every other event he plays. In the meantime Dubai folks gave Dopapova a WC and she has accepted . Presumably, she would also be getting some appearance fee. That may leave Dubai folks with less money to offer to Fed. So, there is a chance that Dubai may not happen as well.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is one more reason why playing in Rotterdam is a bad idea actually. The field is quite strong there. There are as many as 10 top 25 players playing there. Considering that the format is 3-set matches and considering Fed won't have enough time to seriously prepare for it, he may be prone to upset there.

In contrast, in Dubai there are only three top 25 players in the field. Grigor is the top seed and the only top 10 player. Lucas Pouille and RBA are the other top 25 players. This is because the field is split between Dubai and Acapulco, two 500 events being played in the same week.

Further, Acapulco being in the North America and this tourney being played just the week before IW, many players may find the location of Acapulco convenient. In fact, there are 10 top 25 players participating in Acapulco in comparison to just three in Dubai. This also means that Rafa may be more prone to upset there due to strong field when he comes back there.

 

[10isfan]

GSM, thanks for all your posts. Gathering information for them must take a lot of time. We appreciate your efforts.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It looks like the most probable scenario is both Roger playing in Dubai and Rafa playing in Acapulco.

In that case,

1. If Roger wins Dubai, what Rafa does in Acapulco does not matter. Roger will be #1.
2. If Rafa does not reach SF in Acapulco, what Roger does in Dubai does not matter. Roger will be #1.
3. If Roger reaches final, Rafa must win Acapulco to retain #1 ranking.
4. If Roger reaches SF or QF, Rafa must at least reach finals to retain #1 ranking.
5. If Roger loses in the first or second round, Rafa must at least reach SF to retain #1 ranking.

 

[Moxie]

OK, now you really are a bit obsessed with this #1 business.

 

[Ricardo]

OK, now you really are a bit obsessed with this #1 business.

Why does it bother you if Fed gets back top spot maybe for a few weeks?

 

[Moxie]

Why does it bother you if Fed gets back top spot maybe for a few weeks?

It doesn't, at all. I'm only a bit flummoxed by the fans who were mad that Roger pushed for it last summer by playing Montreal, and now are gaming for it, when it is clearly so much the last, of all the resume burnishers, that he needs. I'm just frankly surprised that they're so frantically doing the math. It really doesn't affect his legacy. Though, for sure, have fun with it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It doesn't, at all. I'm only a bit flummoxed by the fans who were mad that Roger pushed for it last summer by playing Montreal, and now are gaming for it, when it is clearly so much the last, of all the resume burnishers, that he needs. I'm just frankly surprised that they're so frantically doing the math. It really doesn't affect his legacy. Though, for sure, have fun with it.

The situation is totally different. Last year, he choose to play in Montreal hoping to accumulate points that will eventually help him to become YE#1. The trouble was that there is no guarantee that he will become YE#1 even if he wins Montreal and there is the possibility of jeopardizing USO (as it happened).

Now, he is not shooting for YE #1 at this time. He is shooting for #1 ranking that is it. Further, it is guaranteed if he can win Dubai.
Further there is no GS in the vicinity to mess up.

Once Fed becomes #1 (even if for just one week only), I don't want Fed to alter his schedule at all for the sake of rankings until
after the USO is complete. The time to consider altering your planned schedule for the sake of YE#1 should be in the post-USO
part of the season.