Roger's Five Set Matches

DarthFed

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I think it is a cop out to place his 5th set disasters as a lack of fitness or just a bad day at the office. He didn't suddenly lack fitness when he was up 2 match points vs. Novak at 2 straight US Opens and then barely put another ball in play. He didn't lack fitness when he blew the USO final against DP out his arse. He didn't lack fitness when he blinked against Rafa at 2008 Wimbledon, Safin at 05 AO, etc.

There are different types of mental strength and Roger just doesn't handle the do or die moments very well at the end. This has mainly been a big problem the last half of his career. His 5 set play turned to disaster from 2008 on and perhaps not coincidentally that's when he started becoming really poor as a frontrunner too.
 

Front242

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DarthFed said:
I think it is a cop out to place his 5th set disasters as a lack of fitness or just a bad day at the office. He didn't suddenly lack fitness when he was up 2 match points vs. Novak at 2 straight US Opens and then barely put another ball in play. He didn't lack fitness when he blew the USO final against DP out his arse. He didn't lack fitness when he blinked against Rafa at 2008 Wimbledon, Safin at 05 AO, etc.

There are different types of mental strength and Roger just doesn't handle the do or die moments very well at the end. This has mainly been a big problem the last half of his career. His 5 set play turned to disaster from 2008 on and perhaps not coincidentally that's when he started becoming really poor as a frontrunner too.

Good point but equally I could cite matches where fitness was definitely an issue but yeah the do or die moments are very much an issue and have been for many years now. His break point conversion has also been absolutely lousy for years now and he keeps getting quizzed on it by the media, quite rightly so 'cos it's a terrible stat that has lost him a lot of matches.
 

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Front242 said:
Good point but equally I could cite matches where fitness was definitely an issue but yeah the do or die moments are very much an issue and have been for many years now. His break point conversion has also been absolutely lousy for years now and he keeps getting quizzed on it by the media, quite rightly so 'cos it's a terrible stat that has lost him a lot of matches.

I just don't agree that that has anything necessarily to do with mental strength. Break point conversion is almost entirely about technical ability. It's just like break point saved percentage is correlated with the percentage of first serve balls and the strength of your second serve.

Roger has one of the best tiebreak records in ATP history. Surely that involve pressure involved points, and he also has one of the best hold percentages at the end of sets in history. What that tells us, is probably that his return is not that good, but his serve is.... It does not tell us that suddenly he becomes a mental giant when serving, or that he becomes a mental midget when returning.

Anyway, i'd argue that his fifth set winning percentage has more to do with the fact that he is a better player than most of the tour, and never gets to play the lesser players to pad his stats like some of the other top fifth set win guys do.
 

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Haelfix said:
Front242 said:
Good point but equally I could cite matches where fitness was definitely an issue but yeah the do or die moments are very much an issue and have been for many years now. His break point conversion has also been absolutely lousy for years now and he keeps getting quizzed on it by the media, quite rightly so 'cos it's a terrible stat that has lost him a lot of matches.

I just don't agree that that has anything necessarily to do with mental strength. Break point conversion is almost entirely about technical ability. It's just like break point saved percentage is correlated with the percentage of first serve balls and the strength of your second serve.

Roger has one of the best tiebreak records in ATP history. Surely that involve pressure involved points, and he also has one of the best hold percentages at the end of sets in history. What that tells us, is probably that his return is not that good, but his serve is.... It does not tell us that suddenly he becomes a mental giant when serving, or that he becomes a mental midget when returning.

Anyway, i'd argue that his fifth set winning percentage has more to do with the fact that he is a better player than most of the tour, and never gets to play the lesser players to pad his stats like some of the other top fifth set win guys do.

That last paragraph makes a lot of sense. He does, however, have a poor record against the big four in 5 set matches and most definitely could've won a few more of those he lost but there you go. He didn't.

PS: The rest of your post makes sense too lol. Just highlighting the last paragraph in particular to help explain the 5th set win/loss ratio better. Cheers.
 

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Ps, Ross Case at number 1 in that 5th set rankings list won zero slams. I'm sure Roger is gutted to be at 155 with 17 slams :p He won a slam in doubles though.
 

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^ I agree with that last bit, too. I always definitely thought this at Roger's peak, and, even now, he's less likely to go five in early-mid rounds. And yes, he's a great front-runner. For all his 1000+ career matches, he didn't have to play as many 5-setters as some, so he has less "muscle-memory" for them. I don't think it was "fitness" in his prime, though it could be more so now. And I don't think it can be put down to that he wasn't playing that well in the match, anyway. (That's a bit fannish as to some of the matches.) Clearly he handles stress situations, based on TB record, so that does leave the mental aspect of the 5th set. I quote Kieran's rather poetic turn of phrase: "he doesn't like it when players cling to him." He has spent so much of his career dusting off players in 3 or 4 sets. Of course, he HAS galvanized and won important 5-setters, but the feeling in general is, when he gets to the 5th set, it's not where he wants to be. It often feels like he doesn't have a plan, because he thought he'd have been done by then. I thought this past Wimbledon felt like that, along with the AO 09 final, when he went into the 5th of each with momentum.
 

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DarthFed said:
I think it is a cop out to place his 5th set disasters as a lack of fitness or just a bad day at the office. He didn't suddenly lack fitness when he was up 2 match points vs. Novak at 2 straight US Opens and then barely put another ball in play. He didn't lack fitness when he blew the USO final against DP out his arse. He didn't lack fitness when he blinked against Rafa at 2008 Wimbledon, Safin at 05 AO, etc.

There are different types of mental strength and Roger just doesn't handle the do or die moments very well at the end. This has mainly been a big problem the last half of his career. His 5 set play turned to disaster from 2008 on and perhaps not coincidentally that's when he started becoming really poor as a frontrunner too.

As I pointed out in my OP it does not seem to be deteriorating with old age or anything
like that. He seems to be at a 50/50 win ratio at almost all points of time in his career.

If you look at his 5 set record from 2008, he is actually 12-9 which is better than
his career average.

Having said that, this can be explained by the fact that he lets matches against
lesser players go to 5 sets these days which he would have won in 3 or 4 sets in
hay days. So, his 5 set win ratio is seemingly becoming better while his play is
actually deteriorating.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Roger is collectively 2-7 (22.22 %) against other members of big four, with
all his wins coming against Nadal.

He is 2-3 against Nadal, 0-3 against Novak and 0-1 against Murray.
 

Front242

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^ That Murray AO '13 5 set loss was the best example of Roger being gassed in the 5th set. He had nothing left in set 5 and did well to even bring it that far.
 

Moxie

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Front242 said:
^ That Murray AO '13 5 set loss was the best example of Roger being gassed in the 5th set. He had nothing left in set 5 and did well to even bring it that far.

Fair enough. He was post-30 at that point, and Murray has a punishing defensive game.
 

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Front242 said:
^ That Murray AO '13 5 set loss was the best example of Roger being gassed in the 5th set. He had nothing left in set 5 and did well to even bring it that far.

Actually, till that day Andy has never beaten Roger in a Grandslam independent of the
number of sets needed.
 

Front242

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^ Yup. Had to happen some day and it took till he was a grandad and 5 sets.
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
DarthFed said:
I think it is a cop out to place his 5th set disasters as a lack of fitness or just a bad day at the office. He didn't suddenly lack fitness when he was up 2 match points vs. Novak at 2 straight US Opens and then barely put another ball in play. He didn't lack fitness when he blew the USO final against DP out his arse. He didn't lack fitness when he blinked against Rafa at 2008 Wimbledon, Safin at 05 AO, etc.

There are different types of mental strength and Roger just doesn't handle the do or die moments very well at the end. This has mainly been a big problem the last half of his career. His 5 set play turned to disaster from 2008 on and perhaps not coincidentally that's when he started becoming really poor as a frontrunner too.

As I pointed out in my OP it does not seem to be deteriorating with old age or anything
like that. He seems to be at a 50/50 win ratio at almost all points of time in his career.

If you look at his 5 set record from 2008, he is actually 12-9 which is better than
his career average.

Having said that, this can be explained by the fact that he lets matches against
lesser players go to 5 sets these days which he would have won in 3 or 4 sets in
hay days. So, his 5 set win ratio is seemingly becoming better while his play is
actually deteriorating.

Yes, he's forced to play more 5-setters. But I thought you told us he's not getting better at 5-setters, statistically? Anyway, not massively. Just to be clear.
 

DarthFed

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Look who he has beaten in 5 set matches since 2008. The only good players on that list figure to be Roddick and DP (twice).
 

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Front242 said:
Btw, Roger himself admitted to pretty much tanking 2 sets (sets 2 and 4) at the US Open 2010 to conserve energy for the 5th so clearly fitness has been issue for him. If he was the ultimate pro and physical specimen you claim he is, he wouldn't have done that but he obviously needed to and that was 4 years ago. If he gets to a 5th set now his chances obviously go way down. I was impressed he didn't lose set 5 against Novak at Wimbledon 6-1 or 6-2 to be honest. He had nothing left at the AO '13 against Murray in the 5th set either and it wasn't like Murray's level went way up either, Roger was just wrecked at that stage. Winners were flying past him from everywhere 'cos he couldn't rally anymore.

Tell the whole story, why don't ya! :lolz: He wasn't conserving energy for the fifth set - he was conserving energy for the final, which was scheduled for the next day.

He was to face Rafa in the final and he said himself that he wanted to have something left after the semi, for the final. This doesn't mean he was gassed or isn't fit. It means he was being sensible.

Against Murray, he was coming off a long five-setter against J-W, and he was gassed. This is normal in a bloke who's 31 years old.

It isn't because of age that his fifth set record is poor, because as GSM said, it isn't a recent development. Federer has always been well-conditioned and never caught cramp, had issues in the fifth with exhaustion...
 

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Haelfix said:
I just don't agree that that has anything necessarily to do with mental strength. Break point conversion is almost entirely about technical ability. It's just like break point saved percentage is correlated with the percentage of first serve balls and the strength of your second serve.

Roger has one of the best tiebreak records in ATP history. Surely that involve pressure involved points, and he also has one of the best hold percentages at the end of sets in history. What that tells us, is probably that his return is not that good, but his serve is.... It does not tell us that suddenly he becomes a mental giant when serving, or that he becomes a mental midget when returning.

Anyway, i'd argue that his fifth set winning percentage has more to do with the fact that he is a better player than most of the tour, and never gets to play the lesser players to pad his stats like some of the other top fifth set win guys do.

He doesn't pad his stats too well against the top players, though, that's the flaw in this thinking.

Break point conversion isn't "almost entirely about technical ability" - it's about being able to snap up an opportunity. The technical part varies, but on bp's great players raise their game - mentally and technically - to snatch the opportunity. On bp's saved, it's about nerve too. The game becomes most mentally taxing when the stakes get higher - not less.

Roger also has a poor final set record, compared to other great players, and compared to the other top players today. I think he's 33rd in that list. This further suggests his problem with players who stick a gun in his mush and don't leave him be to dazzle...
 

shawnbm

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Roger's record in the fifth set is less sparkling than one would expect, but his record in beating lesser players, even on off days over the years, is better than many other hall of famers. Many greats, including Nadal and Novak now (to say nothing of Sampras, Agassi, Wilander, McEnroe, etc) in their best years, lost a lot more matches in the first week of majors and at lesser events than Federer's best five or six years. They were upset more often; Roger was hardly ever upset by anyone other than another hall of famer or top three or four player. Would I prefer Novak or Rafa to play for me in a fifth set against any other player over Roger? Yes, but that does not diminish Federer's greatness. Every player would likely tell you they don't want to go to the fifth set--better to win sooner so as to avoid the stress and the fatigue. I would have preferred Connors or Borg over McEnroe or Lendl or some others in a fifth or a deciding set (I think Borg's record was better than Connors but they were both pretty solid); yet, that does not diminish the greatness of the other guys.

Look at some golfing greats as an example, where pressure putting is like a tiebreak or fifth set in terms of stress, pressure, big moment, etc. None other than Lord Byron Nelson himself famously said in the 1960s that if he had to bet the "family jewels" on an eight foot putt, he'd want Arnold Palmer to putt it for him. Now, this all time great battled many times against Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, the later years of Walter Hagen, and others and he picked Palmer. Does that mean the others may not be equally great to Arnie? No, just that they could get it done in a different way than relying on pressure putting so much. Jack Nicklaus once added that if Hogan could putt he would own all the records, not Jones, Palmer or Nicklaus. Hogan was not a good pressure putter or putter in general, yet he was so good from tee to green he could still win everything for years on end without being able to do that aspect of the game as well as Palmer (or Nicklaus or Woods for that matter). Roger is kind of like that--his greatness was incredible consistency and ability to simply play at a much higher level than others that he did not have to survive through the big pressure moments to get his titles. He simply outperformed everyone "tee to green" (or in three or four sets) and that is his measure of greatness. He is not superhuman and his weakness is that getting tight causes him to overhit--but he was able to overcome that for many years as well. Now, it is harder for him to do.
 

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Kieran said:
Break point conversion isn't "almost entirely about technical ability" - it's about being able to snap up an opportunity. The technical part varies, but on bp's great players raise their game - mentally and technically - to snatch the opportunity. On bp's saved, it's about nerve too. The game becomes most mentally taxing when the stakes get higher - not less.

Let us test this

ATP break point saved stat: points won total points % matches

1. John Isner 100 136 74 35
2. Ivo Karlovic 97 135 72 41
3. Roger Federer 130 184 71 45
4. Feliciano Lopez 152 217 70 43
5. Edouard Roger-Vasselin 185 265 70 38
6. Jack Sock 112 161 70 26
7. Milos Raonic 105 151 70 34
8. Sam Querrey 113 163 69 29
9. Kevin Anderson 147 213 69 38


ATP return of serve saved stat (Murray/Djokovic are in the top 20)

1. Rafael Nadal 229 467 49 52
2. Adrian Mannarino 85 177 48 27
3. Philipp Kohlschreiber 130 280 46 41
4. Dmitry Tursunov 75 163 46 30
5. Roberto Bautista Agut 159 350 45 45
6. Tommy Haas 62 139 45 25
7. Albert Ramos-Vinolas 79 178 44 25
8. Gilles Simon 100 226 44 29
9. David Ferrer 199 451 44 46
10. Daniel Gimeno-Traver 60 136 44 25

More or less a who's who of the best returners in the game (as well as a number of players who make the list b/c they have few games played and larger variance so its worthwhile to look at a few extra years).

Crucially, there isn't a single player that is in both categories.

A better statistic would be if you could subtract a baseline somehow and only look at how this changes in tiebreaks/fifth sets/end of sets, but again you start pushing up against selection bias effects.

Incidentally, imagine the following hypothetical player. Lets say he has a 99% return of serve on his forehand, and a 1% return of serve on his backhand. Most players will serve to his backhand, but occasionally they will mix it up and try to catch him on the fh side so you will see something closer to a 2-3% return of serve average lets say. However on break point, there will be an overwhelming tendency to go after his weakest spot, so you will see something much closer to 1%. Notice how I haven't programmed in anything about mental strength here, yet you can still see a drop in ros percentage even from pure technical ability.
 

DarthFed

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GameSetAndMath said:
Roger is collectively 2-7 (22.22 %) against other members of big four, with
all his wins coming against Nadal.

He is 2-3 against Nadal, 0-3 against Novak and 0-1 against Murray.

This is the main thing, against the great players he simply loses the 5th set no questions asked and in some of those matches he had a mountain of momentum going into the 5th.

The 2nd worst stat of his career and the one that might ruin his legacy if Nadal passes him in slams is the 3-8 record in 5th sets at slam semis and finals. There is no spinning that one. This is do or die in the biggest moments in the sport, where seemingly they are 50-50 at the very worst for Roger (4 at Wimbledon and 3 have been at USO where he is way better than anyone currently playing). If he was a respectable 7-4 in that stat we are talking about him the way basketball fans will talk about Jordan.
 

Kieran

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That's interesting stats, Haelfix, thanks for posting them. :)

Of the top 25, there's nine players in each list. There's even Rafa at #13 on bp's saved, with his WTA serve. Ferrer and Gulbis are the two who occupy #25 on either list, so there are 9 players who are top 20 in one list, but one of the nine is at #25 in the other list.

The huge one-dimensional giants don't feature on the returns list, and interestingly, Federer doesn't, and nor does Djoker feature on the serves list. Yet Federer has a technically gifted return, and Novak has an impressive serve - better than Rafa and Ferrer, I would say...