RG SF - Nadal/Djokovic

[Moxie]

The conditions will be way different from their October encounter where according to some, red clay was muted by weather and heavy damp conditions which negated some of the Nadal topspin. The ball will be bouncing and spinning on a nice hot day. Now on this surface Nadal has more time to set up DTL forehands and backhands , which he needs to break up the pattern of rallies where Novak thrives on.

Can Novak win, of course. How? Naturally high first serve percentage. Second of all, on HC he's so good that he can just stay neutral in most rallies, but not against Nadal on clay, so he has to take risks and get more aggressive to keep Nadal off balance, ie mix in Soderling. Next, shot selection, a middle ground from just defaulting to drop shots galore to really mixing it up. Novak can't get passive or he's sunk. And contrary to popular opinion, Rafa can't just outlast Novak on red clay, I gave the endurance edge to Novak. With Novak he usually lacks the self discipline to stick to the plan, because Nadal is unrelenting in his topspin onslaught, but Rafa can hit short and Novak has to take advantage of that. IF he does this for probably five sets with no major dip he can win.

However that's alot to ask.

Well said!

Well, they would have learned from the Federer fans who attribute Mono, back, etc and of course arthritic old age for every Methuselah loss for the last 13 years. My fave federer fan injury, the mental injury: "he would have won but Nadal is in his head"..LOL

Some folks got used to deciding so long ago that Nadal fans made excuses for his losses, and it has become such a trope that they have failed to recognize how many excuses they've made for Roger over the years. Let's not forget the timeless classic (and convoluted,) "if Roger hadn't been chasing #1 and hadn't played Montreal in 2017, he wouldn't have hurt his back and have won the USO and the YE#1." Which is one of the more arrogant and outrageous Fed fannish claims ever, and it was made by a fair few.

 

[Moxie]

The one thing about this match is that neither Nadal nor Djokovic can’t afford to this match to be super physical because this is only the semi-finals. Even if one them survives this match, they have to quickly recover physically for Sunday especially if Tsitsipas is the other finalist.

Because they're old? I don't wholly agree with this. It won't help, and it could give the other finalist an edge, if his match is over earlier and more quickly, but whichever it is, the all-time greats will still have a big advantage in experience at that level, IMHO.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Because they're old? I don't wholly agree with this. It won't help, and it could give the other finalist an edge, if his match is over earlier and more quickly, but whichever it is, the all-time greats will still have a big advantage in experience at that level, IMHO.

Of course an all-time great will definitely be the favorite in the final. I am just saying that both Nadal and Djokovic will probably wary that they have one more match to go after this match, so they will try to pick spots in order to reserve some energy. The great thing is they are experienced and smart enough to know the situation. Also, they are old enough that the level of play they will produce will be up and down throughout the match like for example 2019 Wimbledon Final.

 

[Moxie]

Of course an all-time great will definitely be the favorite in the final. I am just saying that both Nadal and Djokovic will probably wary that they have one more match to go after this match, so they will try to pick spots in order to reserve some energy. The great thing is they are experienced and smart enough to know the situation. Also, they are old enough that the level of play they will produce will be up and down throughout the match like for example 2019 Wimbledon Final.

I kind of disagree with this. I think they will, or should, play it as a de facto final. They always expect to play each other to the death, and there is so much on the line. We know that Rafa plays always the match in front of him, and he will know if he beats Novak, he will be ready for the next comer. If Novak takes one ounce off to hold in reserve, looking ahead to the final, Nadal will prevail, for sure. This is where Nadal's ethic of play the match in front of you could also be a benefit. Plus he knows how to peak for the last 2 rounds here. 36-0 in SFs. 36-0 in finals.

 

[Moxie]

It's a good sign that people are writing off Novak's chances. I am really hoping he can make this match competitive despite the last year beatdown. Having said that I hope he wins a first set and plants a doubt in Nadal's head. I have to keep believing that Nadal is beatable here so I will go with Novak in 4 sets.

You sound like Novak when you say that Rafa its beatable here. That was his quote in his presser when he retired against Nadal in 2006. You can keep believing that he is, but you've mostly been proven wrong. Time to bring this one back :

 

[shawnbm]

Really based on form alone thus far, I have to go with the Spanish Bull although it could be three hours or longer.

 

[Front242]

Well said!



Some folks got used to deciding so long ago that Nadal fans made excuses for his losses, and it has become such a trope that they have failed to recognize how many excuses they've made for Roger over the years. Let's not forget the timeless classic (and convoluted,) "if Roger hadn't been chasing #1 and hadn't played Montreal in 2017, he wouldn't have hurt his back and have won the USO and the YE#1." Which is one of the more arrogant and outrageous Fed fannish claims ever, and it was made by a fair few.

I don't believe anyone said that. Pretty sure most only said he was gonna be one of the favourites/the favourite at the USO and made an awful mess of his scheduling and that it was a massive opportunity missed, which it was clearly given his results against Nadal in 2017. Looking back at his career, I'm sure he knows he royally screwed up there.

 

[Moxie]

I don't believe anyone said that. Pretty sure most only said he was gonna be one of the favourites/the favourite at the USO and made an awful mess of his scheduling and that it was a massive opportunity missed, which it was clearly given his results against Nadal in 2017. Looking back at his career, I'm sure he knows he royally screwed up there.

I knew you would come back on that. Not many actually said it, but it was heavily, endlessly implied and whined about. What his poor choices and his achy back cost him that fall, as if that were the only factor in who won the USO in 2017, or ended up YE#1.

 

[Front242]

I knew you would come back on that. Not many actually said it, but it was heavily, endlessly implied and whined about. What his poor choices and his achy back cost him that fall, as if that were the only factor in who won the USO in 2017, or ended up YE#1.

And why wouldn't I, since it wasn't true. He missed out on a big opportunity by stupidly coming straight from holiday with no practice heading into Montreal 2017 and injured his back. Clearly, he made a mess of scheduling and lost an opportunity. I don't think anyone said anything that wasn't true since he had the better of Nadal in every match that year. No one said he was going to win it but that if he hadn't hurt his back, he would've obviously been in a much better position.

 

[don_fabio]

The conditions will be way different from their October encounter where according to some, red clay was muted by weather and heavy damp conditions which negated some of the Nadal topspin. The ball will be bouncing and spinning on a nice hot day. Now on this surface Nadal has more time to set up DTL forehands and backhands , which he needs to break up the pattern of rallies where Novak thrives on.

Can Novak win, of course. How? Naturally high first serve percentage. Second of all, on HC he's so good that he can just stay neutral in most rallies, but not against Nadal on clay, so he has to take risks and get more aggressive to keep Nadal off balance, ie mix in Soderling. Next, shot selection, a middle ground from just defaulting to drop shots galore to really mixing it up. Novak can't get passive or he's sunk. And contrary to popular opinion, Rafa can't just outlast Novak on red clay, I gave the endurance edge to Novak. With Novak he usually lacks the self discipline to stick to the plan, because Nadal is unrelenting in his topspin onslaught, but Rafa can hit short and Novak has to take advantage of that. IF he does this for probably five sets with no major dip he can win.

However that's alot to ask.

Agree with every sentence.

 

[don_fabio]

The one thing about this match is that neither Nadal nor Djokovic can’t afford to this match to be super physical because this is only the semi-finals. Even if one them survives this match, they have to quickly recover physically for Sunday especially if Tsitsipas is the other finalist.

Not necessarily, Novak might pull the endurance card and really make it all physical. His first goal is to stop Nadal from winning. By doing this he could easily fail off course, but in the final that leaves at least some chance for the greek. But I don't think Nadal will go down that road of long rallies. He knows he has to be agressive too and keep the points shorter.

 

[don_fabio]

You can keep believing that he is, but you've mostly been proven wrong.

You want to take away my hope? Never!

Seriously, I just have a different feel about this year, despite the odds. I probably sound like Fed fan a decade ago. I haven't seen Novak this motivated on clay since forever and that caveman roar against the italian tells me how much it meant to him, how much he wants this battle today. Unfortunately I can't watch, but I hope you guys throw in a lot of live comments, I will be reading those.

 

[Front242]

Not necessarily, Novak might pull the endurance card and really make it all physical. His first goal is to stop Nadal from winning. By doing this he could easily fail off course, but in the final that leaves at least some chance for the greek. But I don't think Nadal will go down that road of long rallies. He knows he has to be agressive too and keep the points shorter.

Patience is his only hope in my opinion. Move him left and right, point to point and wait for the opportunity to strike. No bs I'm lazy drop shot after drop shot or he's toast like last year.

 

[don_fabio]

Patience is his only hope in my opinion. Move him left and right, point to point and wait for the opportunity to strike. No bs I'm lazy drop shot after drop shot or he's toast like last year.

Yap, he needs to find the right amount of dropshots to make it a weapon that is actually working.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well hopefully, Djokovic at least acquits himself from his abysmal showing last year.

 

[10isfan]

I’m curious if Djoke is as good as Diego. No matter how much he wants the win, I can’t see him getting past Nadal.

 

[napo]

It’s time!
Let’s enjoy The Match of two all time greats!
Hopefully an epic battle.
Idemo !

 

[tented]

After all these years, how can Novak’s overhead *still* be so bad?

 

[don_fabio]

Novak already broken after two long games.

 

[kskate2]

Well that's about 5 droppers from Djoke and we're only in the 2nd game