Race to London'16

[GameSetAndMath]

Two Majors are over and Novak has now officially qualified for the WTF in London O2 Arena.
Needless to say no one else has qualified at this time. It appears that there could be a quite a change in this year's cohorts.

The current cut off for qualification is 6420. Remember that this cut off will keep on decreasing as time progresses and we know how more events get played out. The final cut off figure in 2015 was 4035. I expect that to be around 3200 this year, as Novak is gobbling up all the points available and there seems to be parity among the best of the remaining players.

Roger is at #15 and he has lot of work cut out for him if he does not want his streak to end.
I am giving below all the players who have accumulated at least 1000 points by now. Most likely the final set of qualifiers will be from this list. Those in Green are officially qualified. The bolded players are the ones who will be invited if the selection is made today.

1 Novak Djokovic 7950
2 Andy Murray 4725
3 Rafael Nadal 2930
4 Kei Nishikori 2680
5 Dominic Thiem 2600
6 Milos Raonic 2335
7 Stan Wawrinka 2325
8 David Goffin 1725
9 Gael Monfils 1675
10 Tomas Berdych 1540
11 Roberto Bautista Agut 1445
12 Nick Kyrgios 1340
13 Pablo Cuevas 1208
14 David Ferrer 1170
15 Roger Federer 1140
16 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1080
17 Richard Gasquet 1060

I would like Big Four, Stan, Kei, Thiem and Kyrgios to qualify.

Also, keep in mind that if someone wins a GS, they have inside route to qualification.

 

[Fiero425]

"...Also, keep in mind that if someone wins a GS, they have inside route to qualification."

This is why I didn't understand columnist and people around here talking about how early Nole officially qualified when he actually made it by taking Aussie Opens in Feb.! It made no sense to me to see that supposedly it was the points by Wimbledon that got him in!

 

[nehmeth]

Thanks for this thread GSM.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

"...Also, keep in mind that if someone wins a GS, they have inside route to qualification."

This is why I didn't understand columnist and people around here talking about how early Nole officially qualified when he actually made it by taking Aussie Opens in Feb.! It made no sense to me to see that supposedly it was the points by Wimbledon that got him in!

Not everyone who wins a GS has an automatic entry into WTF without qualifying by being at the top of the ranking charts. Only one such person gets inside route.

According to the rules, the top 7 players in the race get automatically invited to WTF. The next
invitation does not automatically go to the 8th ranked player in the race. It goes to a grand slam winner provided that grand slam winner is at position 20 or less in the race. If there are multiple such players, it goes to the player who is ahead in the race. If there is no such player, it goes to the 8th player in the race.

For example, if Fed wins Wimbledon this year, but is ranked only #12 in the race, he will still get invited to WTF provided the USO winner qualifies via the regular route or is below Fed in the race. Having said that, the chances of Fed winning Wimbledon but not qualifying in the regular route is extremely less.

 

[Fiero425]

"...Also, keep in mind that if someone wins a GS, they have inside route to qualification."

This is why I didn't understand columnist and people around here talking about how early Nole officially qualified when he actually made it by taking Aussie Opens in Feb.! It made no sense to me to see that supposedly it was the points by Wimbledon that got him in!

Not everyone who wins a GS has an automatic entry into WTF without qualifying by being at the top of the ranking charts. Only one such person gets inside route.

According to the rules, the top 7 players in the race get automatically invited to WTF. The next
invitation does not automatically go to the 8th ranked player in the race. It goes to a grand slam winner provided that grand slam winner is at position 20 or less in the race. If there are multiple such players, it goes to the player who is ahead in the race. If there is no such player, it goes to the 8th player in the race.

For example, if Fed wins Wimbledon this year, but is ranked only #12 in the race, he will still get invited to WTF provided the USO winner qualifies via the regular route or is below Fed in the race. Having said that, the chances of Fed winning Wimbledon but not qualifying in the regular route is extremely less.

When has that happened? In the old German "Masters Cup" it occurred when a GS winner dropped off the face of the rankings, kicking out another player (maybe Agassi) who had legitimated qualified! It's time for Fed to give it up and allow someone more deserving to attend like Goffin! l-/ :angel:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I know you are just stirring the pot.

Before, there were two competing end of year events one by ITF and one by ATP. The ITF one was inviting all GS winners and some wild cards. ATP event was purely as per the ranking. Obviously, it is a bad idea to have two competing end of year events as it splits the same pool of players. When they decided to merge them, the rules were formed as a compromise to the way the two tourneys operated.

Goran once made it to the WTF without being in top 8 by virtue of winning Wimbledon. I believe that was the last time this rule was used.

 

[Fiero425]

I know you are just stirring the pot.

Before, there were two competing end of year events one by ITF and one by ATP. The ITF one was inviting all GS winners and some wild cards. ATP event was purely as per the ranking. Obviously, it is a bad idea to have two competing end of year events as it splits the same pool of players. When they decided to merge them, the rules were formed as a compromise to the way the two tourneys operated.

Goran once made it to the WTF without being in top 8 by virtue of winning Wimbledon. I believe that was the last time this rule was used.

I thought it was someone else; maybe an odd clay winner at the FO like Gaudio! Oh well! How is it stirring the pot? It happened and it's factual! :nono :cover

 

[isabelle]

hope to see Thiem in London for his 1st Masters

 

[herios]

hope to see Thiem in London for his 1st Masters

He very well could be, but we have to realize that clay is his strongest surface and although he might grab some more points there post Wimbledon, most likely Domi will be losing ground in the second half of the year.
He has improved on HC, no question, as he won Acapulco, but he will need to show more of that in the next few months.
I am very interested to see if he can keep the pace in ranking, but I think he has to slow down on the pace of his events, because he is playing too much.
At one point it will come back to bite him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed inches up from #15 to #13 in the race.

Hope he gets into top 8 at least by end of Wimbledon, even if he does not win Wimbledon.

 

[Fiero425]

Fed inches up from #15 to #13 in the race.

Hope he gets into top 8 at least by end of Wimbledon, even if he does not win Wimbledon.

He'll drop points from Wimbledon R-up effort last season so it's short-lived unless he can make it back there! :nono :cover

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed inches up from #15 to #13 in the race.

Hope he gets into top 8 at least by end of Wimbledon, even if he does not win Wimbledon.

He'll drop points from R-up effort last season so it's short-lived unless he can make it back there! :nono :cover

This is race thread. We are talking of points accumulated in 2016. We don't worry about points dropping in this thread. :cover:snicker

 

[herios]

Fed inches up from #15 to #13 in the race.

Hope he gets into top 8 at least by end of Wimbledon, even if he does not win Wimbledon.

He'll drop points from Wimbledon R-up effort last season so it's short-lived unless he can make it back there! :nono :cover

You are confusing the ATP ranking (last 52 weeks points) with the current year race, which GSM is talking about, where only the points earned are counted for.
If Roger drops points at Wimbledon (aka does not make the final) it will affect the ranking where right now is #3, not this one where he is not among the top 10.

 

[Fiero425]

Fed inches up from #15 to #13 in the race.

Hope he gets into top 8 at least by end of Wimbledon, even if he does not win Wimbledon.

He'll drop points from R-up effort last season so it's short-lived unless he can make it back there! :nono :cover

This is race thread. We are talking of points accumulated in 2016. We don't worry about points dropping in this thread. :cover :snicker

Tis true; just looking for someone else to make it over The GOAT! He doesn't deserve for this run at O2 to continue while playing less and less!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Even though the race points accumulated by a player will be monotonically increasing, it is NOT necessarily the case that the race rank of a player has to keep improving. Even though your total points increases, if it increases by a larger amount for players below you, then players below you can overtake you. Just a public service announcement

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed inches up to #12 from #13 in the race. Hope, he at least gets into top 8 by the end of Wimbledon and then works on maintaining it the rest of the year. If he cannot make the cut this year, that may be the end.
But, I think he will.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Thiem is now #4 in the race. Only players ahead of him in the race are members of Big Four (except Fed).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger has moved up to #9 in the race now with 2130 points accumulated. Assuming, he did not reinjure himself in the fall today, he should be able to make it to the WTF. The current top 8 are given below (and the order won't change based on the final result, even though points will).

1. Novak 8040
2. Andy 6425
3. Milos 3835
4. Rafa 2930
5. Kei 2905
6. Thiem 2835
7. Stan 2370
8. Berdych 2260.

 

[Fiero425]

Roger has moved up to #9 in the race now with 2130 points accumulated. Assuming, he did not reinjure himself in the fall today, he should be able to make it to the WTF. The current top 8 are given below (and the order won't change based on the final result, even though points will).

1. Novak 8040
2. Andy 6425
3. Milos 3835
4. Rafa 2930
5. Kei 2905
6. Thiem 2835
7. Stan 2370
8. Berdych 2260.

Boy, those Masters' finals really helped Kei stay in the race; even with his body breaking down! :cover uzzled :nono

 

[DarthFed]

Kind of sad that Roger has played 7 tournaments all year, only made one final (of a 250) and yet still is top 10 in the race. This is why I mentioned before that he could be top 10 until age 40 unless he misses almost a full year.