Pre-Gaming Roland Garros

[El Dude]

I absolutely is, if you ask me. First of all, and forgive me the fandom, but it IS Roland Garros: Rafa is a question mark, in terms of level, and even if he'll play, so that's something opened up. (His record there is 112-3. Sorry, I couldn't help myself.) Next question mark is Novak, who is defending. Sinner and Alcaraz skipped Rome due to injury. Will Tsitsipas and Zverev rise to the occasion? It also feels like there are a lot of potential spoilers out there. And maybe it's time to bring back the concept of the Dark Horse.

Yeah, the question marks are huge - which makes it impossible to predict anything. As for "Dark Horses," I'd say anyone who hasn't won a Slam automatically qualifies for the appellation. So for me, Tsitsipas and Zverev would be the lead contenders. This would also be an opportune time for Holger Rune to take a step forward.

As for Rafa, I'm reminded of the character Cap Rooney (played by Denis Quaid) in the Oliver Stone film, Any Given Sunday. If you haven't seen it, he's an aging quarterback trying to come back from injury. There's something he says to Al Pacino, that he would give anything to comeback, but doesn't want to do it and then fold. I imagine Rafa feels the same way - he won't want to play RG unless he believes he has a legit shot, or at least won't go down easy. I can't say I blame him. It would be one thing to make a deep run and lose to Alcaraz or Sinner, quite another to lose in the first round or two to some random low ranked clay grinder.

But again, who the fuck knows what is going to happen!

 

[El Dude]

p.s. to @Moxie . I think it is totally understandable to bring up 112-3...not only is it one of the, if not the single most impressive stats in all of tennis history, but given the current state of Rafadom, some looking back at what he's done is well worthwhile. But he's not done yet.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, the question marks are huge - which makes it impossible to predict anything. As for "Dark Horses," I'd say anyone who hasn't won a Slam automatically qualifies for the appellation. So for me, Tsitsipas and Zverev would be the lead contenders. This would also be an opportune time for Holger Rune to take a step forward.

As for Rafa, I'm reminded of the character Cap Rooney (played by Denis Quaid) in the Oliver Stone film, Any Given Sunday. If you haven't seen it, he's an aging quarterback trying to come back from injury. There's something he says to Al Pacino, that he would give anything to comeback, but doesn't want to do it and then fold. I imagine Rafa feels the same way - he won't want to play RG unless he believes he has a legit shot, or at least won't go down easy. I can't say I blame him. It would be one thing to make a deep run and lose to Alcaraz or Sinner, quite another to lose in the first round or two to some random low ranked clay grinder.

But again, who the fuck knows what is going to happen!

We used to have strict rules about what counted as a Dark Horse. I think they had to be out of the top 20. Inside of the top 20, you were a contender. But that was old times. I think that, these days, anyone who hasn't won a Major qualifies. Why not? Because anyone who isn't Novak, Rafa or Federer has not much proven themselves. Or very much.

Let's go to the Clown Princes: enormous land of opportunity for them. Of the best on offer, they're still in the draw in Rome. Either one could roll into RG will a lot of headwind. If either one of the two of them doesn't win Rome, I'll be disappointed in them. I think Zverev has won it before.

As to RG, I'm with you...who the fuck knows what is going to happen? I'll probably play the draw challenge, for the exercise of it, but seriously, no matter the draw, I can already see that there will be a lot of pick em's that you can't predict.

 

[Moxie]

p.s. to @Moxie . I think it is totally understandable to bring up 112-3...not only is it one of the, if not the single most impressive stats in all of tennis history, but given the current state of Rafadom, some looking back at what he's done is well worthwhile. But he's not done yet.

If you'll allow me another one, he's 137-3 in best of 5 set matches on clay. (This includes when Davis Cup was BO5, and the finals of MS1000 were BO5.) Insane stat. While I don't hold out much hope for his chances at Roland Garros this year, I will hang onto this. As Mary Carillo once said, "Rafa has an instinct for peaking for the last week-end of Roland Garros." I would take help from the draw. But, hey, if it's a wide open year, why not Rafa? Look at the AO 2022.

I don't agree with any notion of him skipping RG this year, and regrouping for next year. It's not going to get any easier, and he's not getting any younger. Chips on the table. If he goes out early, so be it. Die with your boots on, as he seems to want to.

 

[El Dude]

If you'll allow me another one, he's 137-3 in best of 5 set matches on clay. (This includes when Davis Cup was BO5, and the finals of MS1000 were BO5.) Insane stat. While I don't hold out much hope for his chances at Roland Garros this year, I will hang onto this. As Mary Carillo once said, "Rafa has an instinct for peaking for the last week-end of Roland Garros." I would take help from the draw. But, hey, if it's a wide open year, why not Rafa? Look at the AO 2022.

I don't agree with any notion of him skipping RG this year, and regrouping for next year. It's not going to get any easier, and he's not getting any younger. Chips on the table. If he goes out early, so be it. Die with your boots on, as he seems to want to.

If he doesn't play this year, then I think 2022 was his last RG. I don't see him playing in 2025, but who knows - his comment about Rome was a bit cryptic. So unless he's injured, I think he'll give it his all.

But yeah...I think if Rafa makes it through the first few rounds and reaches the QF or even 4R, he becomes the favorite - unless, of course, he's only squeaking by and Novak and/or Alcaraz is playing really well. But I wonder if he has the endurance to make it through seven B05 matches in a row...it is one thing to "play into shape" when you're 27, quite another when you're 37. He really needs a couple gimmes in the first couple rounds, both to get his confidence up and build endurance and momentum.

But I'll be rooting for him! It would be nice to see him go out on top.

 

[Moxie]

If he doesn't play this year, then I think 2022 was his last RG. I don't see him playing in 2025, but who knows - his comment about Rome was a bit cryptic. So unless he's injured, I think he'll give it his all.

But yeah...I think if Rafa makes it through the first few rounds and reaches the QF or even 4R, he becomes the favorite - unless, of course, he's only squeaking by and Novak and/or Alcaraz is playing really well. But I wonder if he has the endurance to make it through seven B05 matches in a row...it is one thing to "play into shape" when you're 27, quite another when you're 37. He really needs a couple gimmes in the first couple rounds, both to get his confidence up and build endurance and momentum.

But I'll be rooting for him! It would be nice to see him go out on top.

I agree that this is probably his last RG. If the BO5 and the size of the court can still favor him, and I'm not sure it can, he could get to the late rounds. And remember, the draw will be full of land mines for others, too. Just think how mad @Front242 will be if Nadal gets to the final against a Cerundolo or even, let's face it, Tsitsipas or Zverev. Could happen. #Iliveinhope

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Latest check on the odds has Alcaraz the favorite. However, he and Sinner and Novak go in without a lot of matches played on clay. It has been suggested on TC that that favor Novak, given BO5 format, and experience. I feel we're in for a wild ride.

Sinner has just begun training again, he is still not 100% that he will play RG, after the scan the hip injury is more serious than first thought btw
Good news for Alcaraz, according to Marca, he will be back practicing with the racket tomorrow ( Monday) for the first time since he lost in Madrid against Andrey Rublev

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If you'll allow me another one, he's 137-3 in best of 5 set matches on clay. (This includes when Davis Cup was BO5, and the finals of MS1000 were BO5.) Insane stat. While I don't hold out much hope for his chances at Roland Garros this year, I will hang onto this. As Mary Carillo once said, "Rafa has an instinct for peaking for the last week-end of Roland Garros." I would take help from the draw. But, hey, if it's a wide open year, why not Rafa? Look at the AO 2022.

I don't agree with any notion of him skipping RG this year, and regrouping for next year. It's not going to get any easier, and he's not getting any younger. Chips on the table. If he goes out early, so be it. Die with your boots on, as he seems to want to.

I agree with the assessment on Rafa. Even though he won AO 2022, he didn't exactly light the world on fire during the clay season that year. He suffered an injury at Indian Wells, and quite frankly, he wasn't the same player ever again (as seen by his performance getting progressively worse as the year went on). But the French Open was wide open that year. Rafa did struggle in the early rounds, and was even on the verge of losing his 4th round match to FAA. Then, he found his vintage form, putting on a masterful performance against Djokovic in the quarterfinal en route to another French Open title.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

BTW if Novak Djokovic dosent reach the final of Roland Garros, Jannik Sinner ( providing he plays) will become the new World No 1 regardless of how far Jannik goes in Paris

 

[mrzz]

BTW if Novak Djokovic dosent reach the final of Roland Garros, Jannik Sinner ( providing he plays) will become the new World No 1 regardless of how far Jannik goes in Paris

Wait, if he gets to #1 provided that he plays, then he at least needs to win a match to get to #1 (after all, not playing and losing in R1 gives you the same zero points).

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Wait, if he gets to #1 provided that he plays, then he at least needs to win a match to get to #1 (after all, not playing and losing in R1 gives you the same zero points).

I should have re-worded thanks Mrzz

 

[El Dude]

Technically players get 10 ATP points just for playing in the R128, but I don't think that would be the difference-maker.

Just to double-check the numbers. Current ATP points (after Rome):

Novak 9860 - 2000 for RG W = 7860 heading into RG
Sinner 8770 - 45 for RG 2R = 8725 heading into RG

So Sinner has +865 points heading into match play at RG. Ways he can become #1:

• Novak wins RG (9860), Sinner reaches the final (10,025)
• Novak loses in the final (9160), Sinner reaches SF or better (9525+)
• Novak loses in the SF or worse (8660), Sinner is #1 no matter what (8725+)

So MM is right, but those are how the numbers look.

 

[Moxie]

I agree with the assessment on Rafa. Even though he won AO 2022, he didn't exactly light the world on fire during the clay season that year. He suffered an injury at Indian Wells, and quite frankly, he wasn't the same player ever again (as seen by his performance getting progressively worse as the year went on). But the French Open was wide open that year. Rafa did struggle in the early rounds, and was even on the verge of losing his 4th round match to FAA. Then, he found his vintage form, putting on a masterful performance against Djokovic in the quarterfinal en route to another French Open title.

Rafa has won the French Open with every iteration of himself. Which is why he's the wildest of wild cards. He won it before he even thought about it. He won it when everyone expected him to, (many times.) He won it when he was the most dominant player in the clay season, and he won it when he'd won nothing on clay prior. He won it when it looked like he'd reinvented clay tennis, and he won it when he came in with no confidence. He won it when they played the French Open in the fall, when they'd seemingly put up all the obstacles against him.

I know what he's up against, and how he's playing, but I wouldn't count him out. If this is a really open year for Roland Garros, why not a weary Rafa?

 

[mrzz]

One factor to add to the uncertainty is that this year maybe we have more very dangerous floaters and low seeded players than usual. Nadal is a floater to begin with. Apart from that, chilean Tabilo (fresh from takin out Djokovic) is a low seed, so is Baez, Cerundolo, Navone and Etcheverry (all Argentinians who grew up on clay). I bet that at the very very least one of those reaches R4 (therefore likely upsetting a higher seed in R3).

Other floaters we have Fils, Maroszan (who already got Alcaraz), Struf (playing super well), Machac, Borges, Darderi, Zhang, Wild (who took out #2 Medvedev last year), not to mention Murray (hope he loses 0x6 0x6 0x6, but you get my point), Stanimal (who can always catch fire out of the blue), and, last but not least, Monteiro (who will have to play qualies, but recently took out Tsitsipas plus other 5 top 50s in Rome and Madri combined).


Given the current state of affairs, I can see any of those floaters taking out any of the top 4 in round 1 (not saying they will, but it sounds way more credible than in years past).

We could reach the second week with a parade of dark horses. Wouldn't it be fun?

 

[Moxie]

One factor to add to the uncertainty is that this year maybe we have more very dangerous floaters and low seeded players than usual. Nadal is a floater to begin with. Apart from that, chilean Tabilo (fresh from takin out Djokovic) is a low seed, so is Baez, Cerundolo, Navone and Etcheverry (all Argentinians who grew up on clay). I bet that at the very very least one of those reaches R4 (therefore likely upsetting a higher seed in R3).

Other floaters we have Fils, Maroszan (who already got Alcaraz), Struf (playing super well), Machac, Borges, Darderi, Zhang, Wild (who took out #2 Medvedev last year), not to mention Murray (hope he loses 0x6 0x6 0x6, but you get my point), Stanimal (who can always catch fire out of the blue), and, last but not least, Monteiro (who will have to play qualies, but recently took out Tsitsipas plus other 5 top 50s in Rome and Madri combined).


Given the current state of affairs, I can see any of those floaters taking out any of the top 4 in round 1 (not saying they will, but it sounds way more credible than in years past).

We could reach the second week with a parade of dark horses. Wouldn't it be fun?

I definitely said there would be a lot of spoilers, or, to your more cogent point, dangerous floaters. (And thanks for the list, which will help me on my draw challenge.) Hadn't thought about Nadal as a dangerous floater, but he qualifies.

Who knows what could happen, but I have to agree with you that many or all of the top seeds could go out in first or second round, given the state of the top seeds, and the relative state of the field, and the potential spoilers out there. The first week could be a bloodbath. Yeah, it could be fun. For me, I'll still be hoping for my dangerous floater, Rafael Nadal ESP to still be in.

 

[Fiero425]

I have to wonder if the absurd prize money is partly to blame for the entitlement of too many players in this generation. When a player like Tomic, who barely achieved a thing in his career, has $10 million in his bank, I can see why there is less incentive for players to work hard and improve their game.

You're way behind the times! If you can generate a Tik Tok video that goes viril you can become a millionaire overnite these days! It's obscene as much as people complain about $$ being tight or really needing it, we throw it down a rathole all the time over inconsequential $#!t like $2000 for a Taylor Swift concert! These people aren't rich; just everyday workers at H & M, A & F, waitresses, & bus drivers! No matter how expensive, they have to have designer bags & clothes, travel, eating out all the time, & finding new ways of being a totally useless human being! It's only gotten worse as social media makes people envious, entitled, & empty! The Cell phone will probably be the end of us someday!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

According to La Gazzetta, Jannik Sinner has been told by doctors to Rest to avoid his hip injury becoming chronic.It's very likely that he will skip Roland Garros and a final decision will be made latter this week. ( source gazzetta.it/Tennis/atp.sla)

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Rafa has won the French Open with every iteration of himself. Which is why he's the wildest of wild cards. He won it before he even thought about it. He won it when everyone expected him to, (many times.) He won it when he was the most dominant player in the clay season, and he won it when he'd won nothing on clay prior. He won it when it looked like he'd reinvented clay tennis, and he won it when he came in with no confidence. He won it when they played the French Open in the fall, when they'd seemingly put up all the obstacles against him.

I know what he's up against, and how he's playing, but I wouldn't count him out. If this is a really open year for Roland Garros, why not a weary Rafa?

That was my favorite French Open. So was the following year's fall Indian Wells. I loved the switch from the normal routine. I wish the ATP/WTA would put Rome and the FO in the fall on even years and Indian Wells during the fall on odd years. It would keep my interest up in pro tennis during the fall (as everyone knows by now how much I hate the fall schedule as currently constructed).

Speaking of the fall schedule, in hindsight Rafa should have packed it in and rested up after the 2022 US Open, instead of playing injured through the meaningless fall schedule (in which he lost the first match of the Paris Masters and went 1-2 in the ATP Finals, by the way) to try for that 6th Year End #1. He would have entered 2023 healthier.

 

[Moxie]

You all maybe know by now how little I understand betting odds, and how little I think of odds makers, so here's a snapshot of some odds I found on a Vegas betting site:

They also had Dimitrov, Struff, Fonseca and Jack Draper at +8000. Everyone else is +10000 or higher.

Most odds makers out there have Alcaraz the favorite, by a small margin. He's coming off of injury, but said to be going to Paris. Sinner is still a question mark. (Do I have that right, @MargaretMcAleer?) Djokovic is certainly more of a question mark than he's been in years, but, personally, I'd make him the favorite.

Going down the list. Ok, Nadal is Nadal.

Ruud over Tsitsipas? Even with the loss today?

The one that really stuns me is Rune over Zverev, and by +200. At least Zverev is still in Rome...and he's won it before.

To me, it's a weird ordering of things, and I'm sure it will change. But I thought it was a good conversation point. After Rome, everything will get recalculated, but given who's already out, and who's left, I'm not sure how much there is left to know.

Maybe @Front242 who understands these things can give some insight.

Oh, for the record, this is the source of the above.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

You all maybe know by now how little I understand betting odds, and how little I think of odds makers, so here's a snapshot of some odds I found on a Vegas betting site:

View attachment 9466

They also had Dimitrov, Struff, Fonseca and Jack Draper at +8000. Everyone else is +10000 or higher.

Most odds makers out there have Alcaraz the favorite, by a small margin. He's coming off of injury, but said to be going to Paris. Sinner is still a question mark. (Do I have that right, @MargaretMcAleer?) Djokovic is certainly more of a question mark than he's been in years, but, personally, I'd make him the favorite.

Going down the list. Ok, Nadal is Nadal.

Ruud over Tsitsipas? Even with the loss today?

The one that really stuns me is Rune over Zverev, and by +200. At least Zverev is still in Rome...and he's won it before.

To me, it's a weird ordering of things, and I'm sure it will change. But I thought it was a good conversation point. After Rome, everything will get recalculated, but given who's already out, and who's left, I'm not sure how much there is left to know.

Maybe @Front242 who understands these things can give some insight.

Oh, for the record, this is the source of the above.

Apparently at the end of this week we will know whether Sinner will play or not, his doctors have advised him not to play at RG, fearing that his hip injury could become 'chronic"