No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

[Kieran]

And think before your next reply, otherwise I'll bring peak Nalbandian to the discussion.

Well, at least there you'd have a strong ally, our friend Cali will prove from a highlight reel on YouTube that Daveed is not only the mythical GOAT, but that he also has a better serve than Sampras, a better return than Novak, and he's better with his left hand than Rafa...

 

[Riotbeard]

Just to clarify, as I believe I am misunderstood here: I am not saying peak Djokovic would beat peak Nadal. What I am saying is that Novak at his absolute best could beat Nadal on clay at RG even with Nadal in his prime.

Not saying his chances would have been great either but a whole lot better than anyone else. There is no denying Nadal is the best we have ever seen on clay. I'd say around 30%, maybe 40% if cloudy and cold weather. Their matches are very competitive and get decided by only a few points (usually both of them win near 50% of the points).

The whole point was that Novak underachieved and I think Front summarized it quite well a couple of posts ago. Given the h2h on clay outside RG, Novak should have been able to take at least one win from Nadal there. Yes, I know 'would have' 'should have'. Just saying Novak underachieved.

Let's see if this year will be different.

You're talking around yourself a little bit, (see bolded) but let's make it simple: In 2012, Djokovic had hit his stride, from which he has not fallen back, basically. And Nadal was still at a reasonable level. 2013 was still in front of him. So, then, why didn't Nole beat Rafa in the final at RG that year? That's probably the closest you'll ever get to the both of them at their best at RG. And it didn't even go to 5.

You would like Front's argument, because it supports your own. You keep saying that Novak has underachieved against Nadal at RG. And I will say, again, that that is unfair on Nadal and what he can do at RG. Of the other two greatest players of his era, he has played them 11 times at the French Open, (6 being finals and 2 SFs) and beaten them both every time. Yes, it may be different this year, but only if Rafa can't summon his best Roland Garros form. If he can, look out.

Not talking around myself, you just fail to comprehend, unfortunately a bit of a recurring trend with you like not understanding what a tautology is.

My point is not unfair towards Nadal. You have seen the finals between these two too. You have also seen the many masters matches where Novak has beaten Nadal on clay and the level that he had to muster to get there in 2011. His level has clearly not been there at RG facing Nadal, and no this is not solely 'because Nadal doesn't allow Novak to reach his level'. It's underachieving, plain and simple. Nerves, virus, mentally not there, etc. I am not saying that Novak would have beaten him every single time, lets be clear about that, just saying he should have done a whole lot better. Perhaps even getting at least one win out of one of their encounters at RG.

To be fair all the nadal fans are misreading Denis (whether agree with him or not).
1. He is saying Peak Nadal is better than Peak Djokovic on clay.
2. Rafa should and does have a h2h advantage against novak at RG.
3. Novak has never produced his best tennis against Rafa at RG as he has done against Rafa at other slams and clay masters tournaments.
4. As a result, Novak if he had performed better should have better results than he does, perhaps or even probably, novak should have one victory against Rafa at RG. If we are counting that would mean Rafa still would have a head to head advantage at Roland Garros, but the level of dominance is surprising giving how they play at other tournaments.

Also Kieran, the point of a hypothetical argument is that it's hypothetical. Pointing out the real results that everyone knows has no bearing on what Denis is saying, because he isn't saying they didn't happen. Obviously you still have every right to disagree with him and not buy into his hypothetical, but if he were going by results, he wouldn't think there was any need to be making a hypothetical argument.

 

[britbox]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

 

[Federberg]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

I was thinking exactly the same. I can only hope if they meet in the final, it's close to being as epic as Wimbledon 2008!

 

[Fiero425]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

I was thinking exactly the same. I can only hope if they meet in the final, it's close to being as epic as Wimbledon 2008!

Playing like this, Rafa may not even make it out of the early rounds! No doubt he'll play hard, but people see he's vulnerable! If someone as blasé as F3 can beat him twice on his beloved surface, where else is there to go but down; and down hard? Let's just see how he does in Madrid and Rome! :dodgy:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Going back to the topic at hand, and Nole's chances, I'd certainly give him a better chance this year than at any other year he's played. Rafa isn't only stinking the kip out right now, but he's got absolutely no form of beating top players since Paris last year. That's a long time. Whereas Nole is top of the game, though I don't see him being anywhere near his eye-busting, deranged levels of 2011. He hasn't been so thunderboltish, but then, if he's getting the results, why would he need to be?

Also, the rest of the field is poor now. Roger is four years on from his semi-final heroics of RG 2011 (and 3 years on from his semi-final thrashing of 2012), and although he's beaten Nole two of the last three times, I'd give him very little chance over five on clay. Ferrer is game, but he's not that man either. If we're looking at anyone other than Rafa to defeat Nole, we'd need the Hubble telescope and a very thick pair of glasses to find them...

But, one may not have to look very far. Novak can do it himself (by losing focus).

 

[Kieran]

If we're looking at anyone other than Rafa to defeat Nole, we'd need the Hubble telescope and a very thick pair of glasses to find them...

But, one may not have to look very far. Novak can do it himself (by losing focus).

That would be extraordinary, wouldn't it? Because the other side of the coin is this: although Nole looks strong now, he still may not have too many more chances to win Paris, especially if Rafa gets taken out by the Unknown Soldier. The longer it takes, the pressure increases on him. In 2011 we would have thought, oh he has another few years left to win it. Well, it's 2015 now...

 

[Fiero425]

If we're looking at anyone other than Rafa to defeat Nole, we'd need the Hubble telescope and a very thick pair of glasses to find them...

But, one may not have to look very far. Novak can do it himself (by losing focus).

That would be extraordinary, wouldn't it? Because the other side of the coin is this: although Nole looks strong now, he still may not have too many more chances to win Paris, especially if Rafa gets taken out by the Unknown Soldier. The longer it takes, the pressure increases on him. In 2011 we would have thought, oh he has another few years left to win it. Well, it's 2015 now...

Federer was patient and waited for an "unknown soldier" to take out Nadal for him! Heaven knows he wasn't going to win that FO on his own; got the help he needed! Hopefully someone will be as accommodating for Nole to grease his path to his career GS with only Cincinnati his last hurdle to complete his resume and the record books! :eyepop :clap :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Great Hands]

But, one may not have to look very far. Novak can do it himself (by losing focus).

That would be extraordinary, wouldn't it? Because the other side of the coin is this: although Nole looks strong now, he still may not have too many more chances to win Paris, especially if Rafa gets taken out by the Unknown Soldier. The longer it takes, the pressure increases on him. In 2011 we would have thought, oh he has another few years left to win it. Well, it's 2015 now...

Federer was patient and waited for an "unknown soldier" to take out Nadal for him! Heaven knows he wasn't going to win that FO on his own; got the help he needed! Hopefully someone will be as accommodating for Nole to grease his path to his career GS with only Cincinnati his last hurdle to complete his resume and the record books! :eyepop :clap :angel: :dodgy:

He needs Olympic Gold too. Hasn't won that yet.

 

[herios]

I agree that Nole better win it this year. No matter how exceptional a player is, past 30 a GS win is rarity. See Roger a living example. Still second in the world at 33, however he won only 1 slam in the last 4 years.

 

[Puppet Master]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

Exactly this, Wafa has visibly declined on clay and on hards he is unwatchable currently. It's not big news anymore that Nadal lost in a clay tourney. Last time he won all 3 of them was in 2012. However, some folks here didn't quite put things into perspective. Can Djokovic play at this level until the end of RG? Even in '11 he blinked in the semi final (he had a w/o in the quarters). All it takes is a sublime performance and a bad day from Djokovic. I am not saying Nadal is invincible there, but up until now he blinked only once, and that was an anomaly.

 

[mrzz]

Let me put an interesting question: assume an shocking and odd early loss by Djokovic in RG. Who is the favourite? (that assuming Nadal does not revert to anything near his usual level of results, for example failing to reach the finals in the next two MS)

 

[tented]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

I was thinking exactly the same. I can only hope if they meet in the final, it's close to being as epic as Wimbledon 2008!

Oh, come on! That's an insult to Roger, if nothing else. Besides, Rafa's is WAY past producing that level of tennis. Seriously, you think a 2015 Nadal/Nole RG final would inspire a sports writer to write a book, such as Wertheim's "Strokes of Genius" about the '08 Wimbledon final?!

 

[Carol]

Any player that loses in a early round on clay is not so much shocking and odd than these loses by Nadal like we are seeing now, incredible but true
If Rafa wouldn't get his best game/mind for RG I'm not sure who would win that coveted title, but I'm sure it would have a tough fight to get it between, Nishikori, Federer, Novak, Wawrinka, Berdych, Monfils and maybe someone surprising

 

[Federberg]

I look back when it was big news for Federer to drop a set.. then it was matches. Pretty much deja-vu with Rafa on clay. There is a hell of a lot riding on RG for Nadal. Djokovic is the superior player and it kind of feels like the last bastion much like Wimbledon was for Federer in 2008.

I was thinking exactly the same. I can only hope if they meet in the final, it's close to being as epic as Wimbledon 2008!

Oh, come on! That's an insult to Roger, if nothing else. Besides, Rafa's is WAY past producing that level of tennis. Seriously, you think a 2015 Nadal/Nole RG final would inspire a sports writer to write a book, such as Wertheim's "Strokes of Genius" about the '08 Wimbledon final?!

Not really. Roger didn't turn up for the first 2 sets. The highs don't need to be as high if the lows aren't as poor as the dross Roger provided early on. Besides... try not to get your knickers in a twist, I did say close to.... The thing that would get it there is if it was a dramatic final. It isn't even necessarily about the quality of the match. It's the significance of the King of Clay being dethroned in a final at RG

 

[tented]

I was thinking exactly the same. I can only hope if they meet in the final, it's close to being as epic as Wimbledon 2008!

Oh, come on! That's an insult to Roger, if nothing else. Besides, Rafa's is WAY past producing that level of tennis. Seriously, you think a 2015 Nadal/Nole RG final would inspire a sports writer to write a book, such as Wertheim's "Strokes of Genius" about the '08 Wimbledon final?!

Not really. Roger didn't turn up for the first 2 sets. The highs don't need to be as high if the lows aren't as poor as the dross Roger provided early on. Besides... try not to get your knickers in a twist, I did say close to.... The thing that would get it there is if it was a dramatic final. It isn't even necessarily about the quality of the match. It's the significance of the King of Clay being dethroned in a final at RG

If it isn't about the quality, then why did you mention the quality of Roger's first two sets in '08? Or is it about the quality?

I think you've missed the whole point, anyway. There is no way a 2015 RG final will even come close to the epic scale of the '08 Wimbledon final -- and not just for the quality. That was a peak Roger playing a peak Rafa -- not the near wheelchair-tennis level Rafa is bringing to the court these days.

Also, my knickers aren't in a twist -- that's not the state someone needs to be in to disagree with you. Or are you projecting?

 

[Carol]

Yep Novak, you were right, when Rafa is not focus then he is beatable, maybe that happened to you in the AO 14? :idea:

http://youtu.be/plbomcLe1rI

 

[Carol]

Oh, come on! That's an insult to Roger, if nothing else. Besides, Rafa's is WAY past producing that level of tennis. Seriously, you think a 2015 Nadal/Nole RG final would inspire a sports writer to write a book, such as Wertheim's "Strokes of Genius" about the '08 Wimbledon final?!

Not really. Roger didn't turn up for the first 2 sets. The highs don't need to be as high if the lows aren't as poor as the dross Roger provided early on. Besides... try not to get your knickers in a twist, I did say close to.... The thing that would get it there is if it was a dramatic final. It isn't even necessarily about the quality of the match. It's the significance of the King of Clay being dethroned in a final at RG

If it isn't about the quality, then why did you mention the quality of Roger's first two sets in '08? Or is it
about the quality?

I think you've missed the whole point, anyway. There is no way a 2015 RG final will even come close to the epic scale of the '08 Wimbledon final -- and not just for the quality. That was a peak Roger playing a peak Rafa -- not the near wheelchair-tennis level Rafa is bringing to the court these days.

Also, my knickers aren't in a twist -- that's not the state someone needs to be in to disagree with you. Or are you projecting?

Seven years ego Rafa was 21 years old (his Birthday was two weeks before Wimbledon) so I don't think he was on his peak, Federer was :angel: :dodgy:

 

[tented]

^ Rafa peaked earlier than normal, because of his early start. He had already won RG 4 times, been in the Wimbledon final the previous two years, and was a month or so away from winning the Olympic Gold medal and becoming world No. 1 -- in a word, peak.

 

[Federberg]

Oh, come on! That's an insult to Roger, if nothing else. Besides, Rafa's is WAY past producing that level of tennis. Seriously, you think a 2015 Nadal/Nole RG final would inspire a sports writer to write a book, such as Wertheim's "Strokes of Genius" about the '08 Wimbledon final?!

Not really. Roger didn't turn up for the first 2 sets. The highs don't need to be as high if the lows aren't as poor as the dross Roger provided early on. Besides... try not to get your knickers in a twist, I did say close to.... The thing that would get it there is if it was a dramatic final. It isn't even necessarily about the quality of the match. It's the significance of the King of Clay being dethroned in a final at RG

If it isn't about the quality, then why did you mention the quality of Roger's first two sets in '08? Or is it about the quality?

I think you've missed the whole point, anyway. There is no way a 2015 RG final will even come close to the epic scale of the '08 Wimbledon final -- and not just for the quality. That was a peak Roger playing a peak Rafa -- not the near wheelchair-tennis level Rafa is bringing to the court these days.

Also, my knickers aren't in a twist -- that's not the state someone needs to be in to disagree with you. Or are you projecting?

Sigh... I didn't think I would need to explain this to you, but if you're talking about the level of tennis you imply quality yourself. I decided to attack your post in two ways. Quality and historical significance. In discussing quality, in my opinion what makes that final, apart from the dethroning of Federer and Rafa achieving number 1 for the first time, is Federer's fight back which starts in set 3. He had been passive and wasn't playing with confidence before that. I surely don't need to spell out the historical significance bit to you do I?

And now going on to RG 2015. Where as Roger had had his problems at the start of the year in the AO, and he got whipped in the RG final. Rafa is having his own obvious problems now. It's a sketchy parallel, but in 2008 a lot was made out of Roger's first half of the year, and the first noises about decline happened then. Now people are talking about Rafa's decline now. Well... we could easily have similar drama now if Novak goes 2 sets up in a final against Rafa, and Rafa comes raging back. If Novak is able to to finally overcome Rafa deep in a 5th set, people will talk about the match in similar terms to Wimbledon 2008. Is that clear enough for you? I've led you to the water, it's up to you to drink. All you need is a little imagination, it's not that difficult :cover