No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

[britbox]

If it isn't about the quality, then why did you mention the quality of Roger's first two sets in '08? Or is it about the quality?

I think you've missed the whole point, anyway. There is no way a 2015 RG final will even come close to the epic scale of the '08 Wimbledon final -- and not just for the quality. That was a peak Roger playing a peak Rafa -- not the near wheelchair-tennis level Rafa is bringing to the court these days.

Also, my knickers aren't in a twist -- that's not the state someone needs to be in to disagree with you. Or are you projecting?

Sigh... I didn't think I would need to explain this to you, but if you're talking about the level of tennis you imply quality yourself. I decided to attack your post in two ways. Quality and historical significance. In discussing quality, in my opinion what makes that final, apart from the dethroning of Federer and Rafa achieving number 1 for the first time, is Federer's fight back which starts in set 3. He had been passive and wasn't playing with confidence before that. I surely don't need to spell out the historical significance bit to you do I?

And now going on to RG 2015. Where as Roger had had his problems at the start of the year in the AO, and he got whipped in the RG final. Rafa is having his own obvious problems now. It's a sketchy parallel, but in 2008 a lot was made out of Roger's first half of the year, and the first noises about decline happened then. Now people are talking about Rafa's decline now. Well... we could easily have similar drama now if Novak goes 2 sets up in a final against Rafa, and Rafa comes raging back. If Novak is able to to finally overcome Rafa deep in a 5th set, people will talk about the match in similar terms to Wimbledon 2008. Is that clear enough for you? I've led you to the water, it's up to you to drink. All you need is a little imagination, it's not that difficult :cover

You can be as condescending as you want -- and apparently you really, really want to -- but you're not going to convince me a 2015 RG final could ever come close to the '08 Wimbledon final. I don't think you're going to get many takers on that, actually.

How can you possibly know until it unfolds (if it does)?

The drama of the match itself was a huge factor in the significance of the 2008 final. If it had been a one sided blowout one way or the other it wouldn't have been put on the pedestal it enjoys.

Is it as significant outside of the match itself? Maybe not, but it's not that far off. If Djokovic wins a final at RG against Nadal, he completes the career slam against the defending champion and greatest clay court player of all time and has half the calendar grand slam in the bag. It would be hugely significant in every way.

 

[Carol]

Sigh... I didn't think I would need to explain this to you, but if you're talking about the level of tennis you imply quality yourself. I decided to attack your post in two ways. Quality and historical significance. In discussing quality, in my opinion what makes that final, apart from the dethroning of Federer and Rafa achieving number 1 for the first time, is Federer's fight back which starts in set 3. He had been passive and wasn't playing with confidence before that. I surely don't need to spell out the historical significance bit to you do I?

And now going on to RG 2015. Where as Roger had had his problems at the start of the year in the AO, and he got whipped in the RG final. Rafa is having his own obvious problems now. It's a sketchy parallel, but in 2008 a lot was made out of Roger's first half of the year, and the first noises about decline happened then. Now people are talking about Rafa's decline now. Well... we could easily have similar drama now if Novak goes 2 sets up in a final against Rafa, and Rafa comes raging back. If Novak is able to to finally overcome Rafa deep in a 5th set, people will talk about the match in similar terms to

Wimbledon 2008. Is that clear enough for you? I've led you to the water, it's up to you to drink. All you need is a little imagination, it's not that difficult :cover

You can be as condescending as you want -- and apparently you really, really want to -- but you're not going to convince me a 2015 RG final could ever come close to the '08 Wimbledon final. I don't think you're going to get many takers on that, actually.

How can you possibly know until it unfolds (if it does)?

The drama of the match itself was a huge factor in the significance of the 2008 final. If it had been a one sided blowout one way or the other it wouldn't have been put on the pedestal it enjoys.

Is it as significant outside of the match itself? Maybe not, but it's not that far off. If Djokovic wins a
final at RG against Nadal, he completes the career slam against the defending champion and greatest clay court player of all time and has half the calendar grand slam in the bag. It would be hugely
significant in every way.

Yeah, the greatest clay court player of all time in his worst time. Hope to see something diferent and when I say to see something diferent of course I mean to see the best Nadal playing against the best Novak or whoever like he did before beating them

 

[Moxie]

Just to clarify, as I believe I am misunderstood here: I am not saying peak Djokovic would beat peak Nadal. What I am saying is that Novak at his absolute best could beat Nadal on clay at RG even with Nadal in his prime.

...
The whole point was that Novak underachieved and I think Front summarized it quite well a couple of posts ago. Given the h2h on clay outside RG, Novak should have been able to take at least one win from Nadal there. Yes, I know 'would have' 'should have'. Just saying Novak underachieved.

Let's see if this year will be different.

To be fair all the nadal fans are misreading Denis (whether agree with him or not).
1. He is saying Peak Nadal is better than Peak Djokovic on clay.
2. Rafa should and does have a h2h advantage against novak at RG.
3. Novak has never produced his best tennis against Rafa at RG as he has done against Rafa at other slams and clay masters tournaments.
4. As a result, Novak if he had performed better should have better results than he does, perhaps or even probably, novak should have one victory against Rafa at RG. If we are counting that would mean Rafa still would have a head to head advantage at Roland Garros, but the level of dominance is surprising giving how they play at other tournaments.

Also Kieran, the point of a hypothetical argument is that it's hypothetical. Pointing out the real results that everyone knows has no bearing on what Denis is saying, because he isn't saying they didn't happen. Obviously you still have every right to disagree with him and not buy into his hypothetical, but if he were going by results, he wouldn't think there was any need to be making a hypothetical argument.

I know you're trying to be fair, RB, but to your point #1: I'm not clear that he IS saying that peak Nadal is better than peak Djokovic. Read the quote above: " What I am saying is that Novak at his absolute best could beat Nadal on clay at RG even with Nadal in his prime." (And given the rest of the quote, that is a tautology, my friends.) How is this not saying that peak Novak beats peak Rafa? "Prime" substitutes for "peak."

Otherwise to the argument, you and Deni insist that Novak hasn't played his best against Rafa at the FO. Examples are cited in other best of 3 tournaments. But isn't that why they play them best of 5 at Slams? And you insist that the argument is hypothetical, but I have posited why Rafa wins on clay...because he's better. Djokovic's all-court game wins at best of 3, but not best of 5, because it's not a clay game. Rafa's game is more specifically suited to clay, and therefore carries the day. I'm not just trying to pooh-pooh you with reality, I'm trying to make the hypothetical argument. You said we don't have to agree, and I'm giving you a reason why I don't, even in the theoretical.

 

[tented]

You can be as condescending as you want -- and apparently you really, really want to -- but you're not going to convince me a 2015 RG final could ever come close to the '08 Wimbledon final. I don't think you're going to get many takers on that, actually.

How can you possibly know until it unfolds (if it does)?

The drama of the match itself was a huge factor in the significance of the 2008 final. If it had been a one sided blowout one way or the other it wouldn't have been put on the pedestal it enjoys.

Is it as significant outside of the match itself? Maybe not, but it's not that far off. If Djokovic wins a
final at RG against Nadal, he completes the career slam against the defending champion and greatest clay court player of all time and has half the calendar grand slam in the bag. It would be hugely
significant in every way.

Yeah, the greatest clay court player of all time in his worst time.

That sums it up in one sentence.

 

[Federberg]

^that still misses the key ingredient. In the hypothetical scenario I described if Rafa were to come back from 2 sets to love down playing great tennis his recent form would be irrelevant. This is a creative imagining I'm surprised at repeated attempts to bring current realities into this. Please use your imagination

 

[Fiero425]

^that still misses the key ingredient. In the hypothetical scenario I described if Rafa were to come back from 2 sets to love down playing great tennis his recent form would be irrelevant. This is a creative imagining I'm surprised at repeated attempts to bring current realities into this. Please use your imagination

I did say something like that already! Concerning Madrid to Paris, I could more believe Nadal coming back to win the FO, but won't be able to defend his points in the warm-up Masters! Dropping those titles will become moot, but begins to make us believe only the FO is important to Nadal! How many times does he have to shut it all down after that tournament? uzzled :nono :angel:

 

[DarthFed]

Not really. Roger didn't turn up for the first 2 sets. The highs don't need to be as high if the lows aren't as poor as the dross Roger provided early on. Besides... try not to get your knickers in a twist, I did say close to.... The thing that would get it there is if it was a dramatic final. It isn't even necessarily about the quality of the match. It's the significance of the King of Clay being dethroned in a final at RG

If it isn't about the quality, then why did you mention the quality of Roger's first two sets in '08? Or is it about the quality?

I think you've missed the whole point, anyway. There is no way a 2015 RG final will even come close to the epic scale of the '08 Wimbledon final -- and not just for the quality. That was a peak Roger playing a peak Rafa -- not the near wheelchair-tennis level Rafa is bringing to the court these days.

Also, my knickers aren't in a twist -- that's not the state someone needs to be in to disagree with you. Or are you projecting?

Sigh... I didn't think I would need to explain this to you, but if you're talking about the level of tennis you imply quality yourself. I decided to attack your post in two ways. Quality and historical significance. In discussing quality, in my opinion what makes that final, apart from the dethroning of Federer and Rafa achieving number 1 for the first time, is Federer's fight back which starts in set 3. He had been passive and wasn't playing with confidence before that. I surely don't need to spell out the historical significance bit to you do I?

And now going on to RG 2015. Where as Roger had had his problems at the start of the year in the AO, and he got whipped in the RG final. Rafa is having his own obvious problems now. It's a sketchy parallel, but in 2008 a lot was made out of Roger's first half of the year, and the first noises about decline happened then. Now people are talking about Rafa's decline now. Well... we could easily have similar drama now if Novak goes 2 sets up in a final against Rafa, and Rafa comes raging back. If Novak is able to to finally overcome Rafa deep in a 5th set, people will talk about the match in similar terms to Wimbledon 2008. Is that clear enough for you? I've led you to the water, it's up to you to drink. All you need is a little imagination, it's not that difficult :cover

This is spot on. The parallels are fairly obvious. Roger had a disastrous start to 2008 similar to Rafa here in 2015. The thing is that Rafa fans tend to badly overrate the 2008 final from a quality perspective. It was the drama and the stakes that make it so revered. Roger littered the court with unforced errors the entire match and played horrific for the first two sets. After becoming more aggressive he played decent tennis and made a match of it. People tend to forget the first 2 laugher sets when discussing that match.

It is not impossible to see a 2015 final at RG go in a similar fashion. The problem is it might not be a final and in all likelihood it won't play out that dramatically. But the parallels are there, challenger who has been knocking on the door the past few years is facing the badly struggling champion in his kingdom.

 

[Kieran]

This is spot on. The parallels are fairly obvious. Roger had a disastrous start to 2008 similar to Rafa here in 2015. The thing is that Rafa fans tend to badly overrate the 2008 final from a quality perspective. It was the drama and the stakes that make it so revered. Roger littered the court with unforced errors the entire match and played horrific for the first two sets. After becoming more aggressive he played decent tennis and made a match of it. People tend to forget the first 2 laugher sets when discussing that match.

It is not impossible to see a 2015 final at RG go in a similar fashion. The problem is it might not be a final and in all likelihood it won't play out that dramatically. But the parallels are there, challenger who has been knocking on the door the past few years is facing the badly struggling champion in his kingdom.

This is the myth that helps Fedfans face defeat. In fact, Roger didn't litter the court with so many UFE's. He had 52, but 89 winners. In 2007, he had 34 UFE's, but only 65 winners. Nor did he play "horrific" in the first two sets. Nadal was so on top of him, he might have won in 3 sets had he not tightened a little at 3-3, and 0-40 on the Federer serve in the third.

Credit where it's due, chaps, please.

Also, in 2008, Federer was certainly peak, he'd won the previous five Wimbo's (like Rafa going into this years FO), but he was still #1 (Rafa has recently been #5), he reached the semis in Oz, and he'd reached 2 MS semis, two finals, then he reached the final in Paris.

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

 

[DarthFed]

52 by Wimbledon scoring is an enormous amount. I'd bet it's one of the most in tournament history. And Roger was dreadful the first 2 sets, and the routine scoreline shows that not to mention choking the 2nd set away from 4-1 to 4-6. All around it was the worst we'd seen him play on grass in 6 years.

Compared to what Roger did from 2004-2007, the drop off in 2008 was similar, relatively, to Rafa this year. Rafa has never been anywhere near as dominant overall. Roger had only won Halle until the USO, the rest of his results including losing on a surface he had 65 straight wins on was disastrous.

 

[Kieran]

52 by Wimbledon scoring is an enormous amount. I'd bet it's one of the most in tournament history. And Roger was dreadful the first 2 sets, and the routine scoreline shows that not to mention choking the 2nd set away from 4-1 to 4-6. All around it was the worst we'd seen him play on grass in 6 years.

Do the maths. They played 90 points more in 2008 than 2007, and he hit 18 more UFE's, was +37 in winners in 2008, compared to +31 in 2007. In the 2012 Aus final, both Rafa and Nole hit far more UFE's even though they played 40 points and seven games fewer.

Compared to what Roger did from 2004-2007, the drop off in 2008 was similar, relatively, to Rafa this year. Rafa has never been anywhere near as dominant overall. Roger had only won Halle until the USO, the rest of his results including losing on a surface he had 65 straight wins on was disastrous.

It's not similar. Roger went into 2008 as a dominant world #1 and holder of three slams. Rafa came limping into 2015 as world #3 and struggling to get fit, having missed most tourneys since Wimbledon. Their results since January of both years are nowhere near comparable, as I've shown, and Roger was still #1 after the Wimbledon final, whereas Rafa is currently dabbling between #4 and #5.

If you were to look at a Roger that's comparable, you might point to the 2013 version instead...

 

[tented]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

 

[Kieran]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

That's a good point, actually, cos I'm thinking, did he play any matches in 2014 that could be considered "great matches?" Obviously, there's contenders, with the last 3 at the FO and the semi in Oz, but really? Are they DVD, must-have material? There were splashes of greatness in the performances, but, for instance, neither Nole nor Rafa were great in the FO final, and each of them looked like dying men at the end.

I'd go back as far as 2013 US Open final, or certainly, the great semi with Nole in Paris that year...

 

[DarthFed]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

that 2008 Dvd which was likely made by a Rafa fan, certainly wasnt due to Roger's level of play. It was due to it being such a dramatic match. There's no reason to think Rafa is completely incapable of sending a 2015 final to a 5th set even if he falls behind after a lifeless couple of sets.

 

[Riotbeard]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

that 2008 Dvd which was likely made by a Rafa fan, certainly wasnt due to Roger's level of play. It was due to it being such a dramatic match. There's no reason to think Rafa is completely incapable of sending a 2015 final to a 5th set even if he falls behind after a lifeless couple of sets.

Isn't there a thread specifically made for this type of stuff? :laydownlaughing

 

[tented]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

that 2008 Dvd which was likely made by a Rafa fan, certainly wasnt due to Roger's level of play. It was due to it being such a dramatic match.

This has been your party-line for years. A match so great Wimbledon issued it on DVD, Jon Wertheim wrote a book about it, and a huge number of people consider it to be the greatest match ever played -- yet Roger wasn't playing well. :cover

There's no reason to think Rafa is completely incapable of sending a 2015 final to a 5th set even if he falls behind after a lifeless couple of sets.

Come on, Darth. Did you watch last year's final? Rafa could barely limp his way to the finish line in the fourth set, and got a lot of help from Djokovic to pull off the win -- including a DF on championship point.

Look, I know you and many others here hate Rafa with every fiber of your being, but let's be realistic. He will be 29-years-old if he even makes the final in Paris. He hasn't played a full season in years because his body is breaking down. He had to go five sets against Tim "Who?" Smyczek in AO, then promptly lost in straight sets in the next round to a guy he used to own. And you think this same player is going to have some miraculous five-set epic against the greatest returner on the tour?

 

[Kieran]

Isn't there a thread specifically made for this type of stuff? :laydownlaughing

If there is, I never seen it...

 

[britbox]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

Rafa beat the same fella last year. It might be convenient to talk him down as chopped liver but he can still hit a bit - a lot actually. A Rafa-centric view might be that Djokovic ain't going to earn an FO title whether he wins it or not, downplaying expectations to the level that Nadal is playing "wheelchair tennis".

If Nadal makes the FO Final and meets Djokovic (assuming he gets there - not a given either BTW) then there is a hell of lot riding on the match including a career grand slam... and you can rest assured that he ain't playing wheelchair tennis if he makes the finals.

A great match is usually based on competition, not the level of one of the players.

 

[Federberg]

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

that 2008 Dvd which was likely made by a Rafa fan, certainly wasnt due to Roger's level of play. It was due to it being such a dramatic match.

This has been your party-line for years. A match so great Wimbledon issued it on DVD, Jon Wertheim wrote a book about it, and a huge number of people consider it to be the greatest match ever played -- yet Roger wasn't playing well. :cover

There's no reason to think Rafa is completely incapable of sending a 2015 final to a 5th set even if he falls behind after a lifeless couple of sets.

Come on, Darth. Did you watch last year's final? Rafa could barely limp his way to the finish line in the fourth set, and got a lot of help from Djokovic to pull off the win -- including a DF on championship point.

Look, I know you and many others here hate Rafa with every fiber of your being, but let's be realistic. He will be 29-years-old if he even makes the final in Paris. He hasn't played a full season in years because his body is breaking down. He had to go five sets against Tim "Who?" Smyczek in AO, then promptly lost in straight sets in the next round to a guy he used to own. And you think this same player is going to have some miraculous five-set epic against the greatest returner on the tour?

Lol! Are we now saying Rafa was injured in the RG final last year? Oh my stars!

No one is saying the scenario I outlined is probable. It's a hypothetical. If such a thing were to happen it would be an epic. For the life of me I can't understand why this is so hard to see. The parallel would be obvious if it came to pass. But I guess you Rafa-fans are so invested in your narrative for Rafa you can't even entertain the thought. Well good luck to you guys

 

[britbox]

This is spot on. The parallels are fairly obvious. Roger had a disastrous start to 2008 similar to Rafa here in 2015. The thing is that Rafa fans tend to badly overrate the 2008 final from a quality perspective. It was the drama and the stakes that make it so revered. Roger littered the court with unforced errors the entire match and played horrific for the first two sets. After becoming more aggressive he played decent tennis and made a match of it. People tend to forget the first 2 laugher sets when discussing that match.

It is not impossible to see a 2015 final at RG go in a similar fashion. The problem is it might not be a final and in all likelihood it won't play out that dramatically. But the parallels are there, challenger who has been knocking on the door the past few years is facing the badly struggling champion in his kingdom.

This is the myth that helps Fedfans face defeat. In fact, Roger didn't litter the court with so many UFE's. He had 52, but 89 winners. In 2007, he had 34 UFE's, but only 65 winners. Nor did he play "horrific" in the first two sets. Nadal was so on top of him, he might have won in 3 sets had he not tightened a little at 3-3, and 0-40 on the Federer serve in the third.

Credit where it's due, chaps, please.

Also, in 2008, Federer was certainly peak, he'd won the previous five Wimbo's (like Rafa going into this years FO), but he was still #1 (Rafa has recently been #5), he reached the semis in Oz, and he'd reached 2 MS semis, two finals, then he reached the final in Paris.

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

There ain't a HUGE difference pal, because Federer going into Wimbledon 2008 wasn't the same guy who (statistically at least) started 2008. He'd dropped the AO title having won it three times in the last four years whilst sweating like a rapist due to mono at the latter end of 2007. He hadn't won anything of note going into Wimbledon 2008 and been hammered by Nadal at Roland Garros.

Federer's 2007 was the time a few cracks start appearing - he dropped from a 95% winning average to 88% in 2007 and then 81% in 2008. Even though he won the WTF in 2007, he looked out of kilter then.

 

[tented]

Compare this with Rafa now, and I think we can see a huge difference. He can't even beat Triple F, FFFS. The only way this years FO can be compared with 2008 is, as Britbox says, if they meet and play a great match, kinda like they did in 2013. But Rafa is a longer time holding the fort in Paris than Roger did at Wimbledon, so obviously the self-fulfilling prophecy that he should lose someday is going to happen. It's one thing being usurped when you're top of the world and in your prime, and yet another to fall off your perch in your dotage...

This. For all the talk of using your imagination, etc., the Fedfans may as well be saying, "Let's write a script for fantasy tennis -- reality be damned." Because that's what they're really talking about.

Rafa hasn't played at a level for years which could come close to this mythological great final they're imagining. It's as if they haven't even been watching tennis.

Seriously: Name the last match Rafa played which could be truly -- truly -- described as "great"? Something which would merit being put in a time capsule? Or issued on DVD because demand to see it repeatedly is so high?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

But now, all of a sudden, he's going to play at this level in Paris? Give me a break.

Rafa beat the same fella last year. It might be convenient to talk him down as chopped liver but he can still hit a bit - a lot actually. A Rafa-centric view might be that Djokovic ain't going to earn an FO title whether he wins it or not, downplaying expectations to the level that Nadal is playing "wheelchair tennis".

If Nadal makes the FO Final and meets Djokovic (assuming he gets there - not a given either BTW) then there is a hell of lot riding on the match including a career grand slam... and you can rest assured that he ain't playing wheelchair tennis if he makes the finals.

A great match is usually based on competition, not the level of one of the players.

Who says Djokovic wouldn't have earned it? No one I've read. Certainly not me. I think you're the only one. If Novak wins it, he will have earned it. That's straightforward.