Nitto ATP Finals 2024, Turin, Italy

[Kieran]

Yes, it would - with the caveat that Ruud would also have to defeat Rublev 2-0. This might be helpful (from Wikipedia):

View attachment 9796
So if that scenario happens, it would come down to the Game W-L percentage, so as long as Zverev doesn't get blown out, he is almost a shoe-in. Alcaraz is the guy that is currently in the worst shape (of the three) because of his W-L, but it is close enough with Ruud to make things interesting.

I haven't crunched the numbers, but presumably there's a configuration of games that could keep the three-way tie, and then it would be Zverev and Alcaraz because they're ranked higher than Ruud.

Thanks brother!

 

[Kieran]

Both matches today were entertaining, I thought. Even despite the scoreline in the 2nd match. I agree with @Kieran that Medvedev seems to have lost some of his focus, and along with it, his mojo.

His heart is broke. I’m convinced he hasn’t recovered since the Oz final in 2022. He’s timid and deferential and he’s losing his range in shots against the big boys. I don’t think Sinner ought to be handling him this predictably, but he is…

 

[kskate2]

His heart is broke. I’m convinced he hasn’t recovered since the Oz final in 2022. He’s timid and deferential and he’s losing his range in shots against the big boys. I don’t think Sinner ought to be handling him this predictably, but he is…

I've been saying this all year that he is a shell of himself. And while I think he got over the loss to Nads eventually (he had a really good 2023), turning around and dumping another Djokeless final from 2 sets to String Bean is enough to send anyone down a shame spiral. He's getting bossed by folks he used to own. I'd hoped it wouldn't take him an entire year to get his head on straight again, but this year is over and he hasn't won a title.

 

[tented]

 

[tented]

Zverev d. Alcaraz, 7-6(5), 6-4

Alcaraz is clearly not feeling well this week and not playing up to par. He tried today, but you could see he wasn’t up to it.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Zverev d. Alcaraz, 7-6(5), 6-4

Alcaraz is clearly not feeling well this week and not playing up to par. He tried today, but you could see he wasn’t up to it.

Hopefully he can put aside the disappointment of not advancing in the ATP Finals, get over his illness and be ready for the DC Finals in Malaga.

 

[El Dude]

I don't think Alcaraz is technically eliminated yet. If Rublev blows out Ruud, Carlos can sneak in.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I don't think Alcaraz is technically eliminated yet. If Rublev blows out Ruud, Carlos can sneak in.

Oh thanks I thought he was eliminated

 

[mrzz]

I thought I would miss Nadal in the ATP finals, but Alcaraz is filling that gap.

 

[mrzz]

I don't think Alcaraz is technically eliminated yet. If Rublev blows out Ruud, Carlos can sneak in.

I think he is. If Rublev wins by a blowout, there is a three way tie, wins and sets will be equal among the three, but probably Rublev will have the best games percentage (again, if he wins by a blowout). At a first glance I do not think there is a possible result that makes Alcaraz advance.

 

[El Dude]

I think he is. If Rublev wins by a blowout, there is a three way tie, wins and sets will be equal among the three, but probably Rublev will have the best games percentage (again, if he wins by a blowout). At a first glance I do not think there is a possible result that makes Alcaraz advance.

I think it is unlikely, but possible. If Rublev beats Ruud 2-0 in sets, they're in a three-way tie at 1-2 matches and 2-4 sets. Then it comes down to game %, which is a bit tricky. Rublev would have to big enough that Ruud's % is worse than Alcaraz's, but not so good that his is better than Carlos.

 

[mrzz]

I think it is unlikely, but possible. If Rublev beats Ruud 2-0 in sets, they're in a three-way tie at 1-2 matches and 2-4 sets. Then it comes down to game %, which is a bit tricky. Rublev would have to big enough that Ruud's % is worse than Alcaraz's, but not so good that his is better than Carlos.

Checking the standings there is no score that does it for Alcaraz:

Even a 6x4 6x4 would have Rublev surpassing Alcatraz. 7x6 7x6 would have Alcaraz in front of Rublev but Ruud in front of them both.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Does Rublev realize he has a H2H 5-2 over Ruud?

 

[mrzz]

Checking the standings there is no score that does it for Alcaraz:

View attachment 9800
Even a 6x4 6x4 would have Rublev surpassing Alcatraz. 7x6 7x6 would have Alcaraz in front of Rublev but Ruud in front of them both.

That discussion becomes immaterial as Ruud Is classified by winning a set.

 

[El Dude]

Yup. Sinner vs. Ruud, Zverev vs. Fritz. Hard to imagine we don't see a Sinner vs. Zverev final.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Ruud who could barely win a match for months, finds his best tennis and qualifies for the SFs for the 3rd time in 3 appearances of the ATP Finals, confirmed after winning the 1st set against Rublev 6-4.
EDIT: Rublev wins the 2nd set 75, going 3 sets
Ruud d Rublev 64 57 62

 

[Fiero425]

I thought I would miss Nadal in the ATP finals, but Alcaraz is filling that gap.

Yep; a perfect fit! Almost a total waste of a trip! He actually complained about how long the season is so I'm not surprised he went down in flames! He may have been ill as well, but that "Breathe Rite" on his nose tells me he wasn't up to the task at hand! Maybe next year!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Rublev ends the season 43-26 highlighted by his run to the ATP Masters 1000 title in Madrid
Rublev went 0-3 in the round robin stage in Turin, he also lost to Zverev and Alcaraz

 

[kskate2]

I don't understand why Chuck even posted. That ill before he even left home, he should have skipped and rested up for the Davis Cup. He's not beating any top players at less than top shelf on this fast indoor court

 

[El Dude]

Yep; a perfect fit! Almost a total waste of a trip! He actually complained about how long the season is so I'm not surprised he went down in flames! He may have been ill as well, but that "Breathe Rite" on his nose tells me he wasn't up to the task at hand! Maybe next year!

To be fair to Rafa, he came close to winning it a couple times, and went deep four more...two Finals, four Semifinals. He even beat Roger in the 2013 SF. Meaning, he wasn't a pushover at the Tour Finals, he just never won it.

Fun fact: Roger, Rafa, and Novak all lost 18 career matches at the Tour Finals, though with rather different resumes:

Rafa: 11 events, 21-18 (53.8%), 2 finals, 3 semifinals
Novak: 16 events, 51-18 (73.9%), 7 titles, 2 finals, 3 semifinals
Roger: 17 events, 59-18 (76.6%), 6 titles, 4 finals, 6 semifinals
Andy: `8 events, 15-12 (55.6%), 1 title, 3 semifinals

Kind of crazy that in 17 events, Roger didn't make the SF only once - all thanks to losing to Andy Murray and Gilles Simon in 2008.