Nitto ATP Finals 2024, Turin, Italy

[El Dude]

To be fair to Daniil, he had a pretty good year in 2023. No Slams obviously, but he won two Masters and five titles overall. What is concerning, though, is that all of his titles were before Roland Garros, so he hasn't won a title in a year and a half (since Rome 2023). But he's still going deep in Slams - from Wimbledon last year year he's reached two Finals, two Semifinals, one QF and one 4R. He's just sort of taken up the pre-Slam Andy Murray role: always around deep in tournaments, but not winning them.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

At least Medvedev turned up in his match today against Alex de Minaur defeating him in straight sets 62 64
Not like the complete "jerk' he was in his match against Fritz, with no focus at all, and acting like a 'clown on court' losing in straight sets

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner d Fritz 64 64, in a rematch of the USO final
He's won 6 consecutive sets against Fritz and won their last 3 matches
67-6 in 2024
8th win in a row!
Sinner's bhand sliding pass one of the highlights of this match, Fritz threw everything at him, including the 'kitchen sink, Sinner too good when it mattered.

 

[tented]

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Zverev d Ruud 76(3) 63, good match but a disappointing ending from Ruud

In the earlier match,
Alcaraz d Rublev 63 76(8) , Alcaraz recovered well from his 1st round match, good on serve and looked like himself in the long rallies, keeps his finals hopes alive

 

[tented]

 

[El Dude]

This finals really seems to be displaying the different tiers of tennis players right now. Of course it is a spectrum, but it really seems like we have separation between several groups:

Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic
Zverev, Medvedev
Rublev, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Fritz
Dimitrov, De Minaur, Rune, Hurkacz, Berrettini, Khachanov, Shelton, Tiafoe, Paul, Draper, FAA, Fils, Baez, etc

Tsitsipas was formerly in the second group, but has since fallen and seems to be heading for the fourth group. I'd like to put Rune in the third group, but he just hasn't solidified himself there yet. The fourth group is a mixed bag: some guys on the rise (presumably Rune, Shelton, Draper, Fils), some guys who fell back and may or may not rise again (FAA, Berrettini), some guys who have presumably settled in there as being as good as they'll get (Tiafoe? De Minaur?), and some guys who can be really good in certain contexts but aren't quite well-rounded enough to be in the third group (Hurkacz, Khachanov, Baez). Paul is interesting, because he keeps getting better every year, though it is hard to imagine him rising too much further.

I'm not sure Novak still belongs in the first group. I think the AO will tell us a lot.

 

[Kieran]

Okay so, permutations: Who's good at this game?

If Sinner wins a set tonight, he's through, but I'm not sure who goes through with him. If Sinner wins the match then Fritz is through, and if Dannii wins in straights, he's through as group winner, I believe with Sinner second?

That's as clear as mud.

What about tomoro?

 

[El Dude]

I could be wrong, but I think Sinner has clinched a spot in the SF. Even if he loses 0-2 to Medvedev, there will be a three-way tie and he and Medvedev would both be 4-2 in sets, while Fritz is 4-3. So as far as I can tell:

Sinners wins: he and Fritz are in
Medvedev wins 2-1: Sinner and Fritz are in (three-way tie, Sinner with best set w-l, Med and Fritz tied at 4-3 but Fritz has H2H win over ed)
Medvedev wins 2-0: Sinner and Medvedev are in (both at 4-2 set w-l)

Meaning, it is Sinner and Fritz unless Daniil wins 2-0 today, in which case he replaces Fritz.

Tomorrow is a bit more variable, because there are still two matches. I do believe Zverev has already clinched a SF berth, though, as even if he loses 0-2 to Alcaraz and Ruud wins 2-0, Zverev and Ruud would be tied at 4-2, but Zverev beat Ruud.

 

[Kieran]

I could be wrong, but I think Sinner has clinched a spot in the SF. Even if he loses 0-2 to Medvedev, there will be a three-way tie and he and Medvedev would both be 4-2 in sets, while Fritz is 4-3. So as far as I can tell:

Sinners wins: he and Fritz are in
Medvedev wins 2-1: Sinner and Fritz are in (three-way tie, Sinner with best set w-l, Med and Fritz tied at 4-3 but Fritz has H2H win over ed)
Medvedev wins 2-0: Sinner and Medvedev are in (both at 4-2 set w-l)

Meaning, it is Sinner and Fritz unless Daniil wins 2-0 today, in which case he replaces Fritz.

Thanks Dude, these things often vex me!

Tomorrow is a bit more variable, because there are still two matches. I do believe Zverev has already clinched a SF berth, though, as even if he loses 0-2 to Alcaraz and Ruud wins 2-0, Zverev and Ruud would be tied at 4-2, but Zverev beat Ruud.

If Alcaraz wins 2-0 v Zverev, and Ruud beats Rublev 2-0, there’d be 3 players tied on 4-2? How do they separate them? On games won?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner holds to love to win the 1st set 63( Sinner already qualified for the SFs).Medvedev is out of the finals and Fritz, who was cheering for Sinner? strange that moves on!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

In the earlier match Fritz d Alex de Minaur 57 64 63, improving to 4-5 against Alex
Despite his 3rd defeat of the week, Alex de Minaur obtained his personal best PIF ATP ranking of No 9 and will travel to Malaga for DC Finals next week

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner d Medvedev 63 64
For the first time since February 2020. first meeting, against Medvedev, Jannik leads their H2H 8-7. Sinner is now 68-6 in 2024!
Jannik did not lose a set in the group stage and wins the Nastase Group! and Taylor Fritz takes 2nd place.

 

[Kieran]

Sinner d Medvedev 63 64
For the first time since February 2020. first meeting, against Medvedev, Jannik leads their H2H 8-7. Sinner is now 68-6 in 2024!
Jannik did not lose a set in the group stage and wins the Nastase Group! and Taylor Fritz takes 2nd place.

That rivalry is extraordinary. Danii won the first six matches, but now he’s basically a whipping boy. It’s sad to see a man who was one of the best in the Thiem/Zverev/Sissy/Med generation go into a black hole and look unlikely to come back…

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

That rivalry is extraordinary. Danii won the first six matches, but now he’s basically a whipping boy. It’s sad to see a man who was one of the best in the Thiem/Zverev/Sissy/Med generation go into a black hole and look unlikely to come back…

Main problem with Meddy especially this year, in matches where he should have won, little things started to irritate him,loses focus and loses matches, he brought on board Gilles Simon to his coaching team, quite frankly I havent seen any improvement in Meddy's overall game, he will finish the year ranked No 5, ( he didnt win a title in 2024) hopefully in 2025, he can more focused in matches for starters.

 

[El Dude]

Thanks Dude, these things often vex me!

Yeah, it is tricky.

If Alcaraz wins 2-0 v Zverev, and Ruud beats Rublev 2-0, there’d be 3 players tied on 4-2? How do they separate them? On games won?

They go with H2H then percentage of games won. So in that case, Ruud beat Alcaraz, so Ruud gets in. But if Ruud wins 2-1 and Alcaraz 2-0, Alcaraz gets in because he'd be 4-2 and Ruud 4-3 in sets.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, it is tricky.

They go with H2H then percentage of games won. So in that case, Ruud beat Alcaraz, so Ruud gets in. But if Ruud wins 2-1 and Alcaraz 2-0, Alcaraz gets in because he'd be 4-2 and Ruud 4-3 in sets.

But if they’re all tied at 4-2, and Alcaraz has defeated Zverev 2-0, Zverev defeated Ruud 2-0, and Ruud defeated Alcaraz 2-0, it comes down to games won?

 

[Kieran]

Main problem with Meddy especially this year, in matches where he should have won, little things started to irritate him,loses focus and loses matches, he brought on board Gilles Simon to his coaching team, quite frankly I havent seen any improvement in Meddy's overall game, he will finish the year ranked No 5, ( he didnt win a title in 2024) hopefully in 2025, he can more focused in matches for starters.

Yeah that’s right, he’s gone the same direction as Rune. Completely lost his bearings. I’m not sure Simon is the guy to jazz up a players game - or confidence - to be honest. Simon makes a glass of water look colourful…

 

[El Dude]

But if they’re all tied at 4-2, and Alcaraz has defeated Zverev 2-0, Zverev defeated Ruud 2-0, and Ruud defeated Alcaraz 2-0, it comes down to games won?

Yes, it would - with the caveat that Ruud would also have to defeat Rublev 2-0. This might be helpful (from Wikipedia):

So if that scenario happens, it would come down to the Game W-L percentage, so as long as Zverev doesn't get blown out, he is almost a shoe-in. Alcaraz is the guy that is currently in the worst shape (of the three) because of his W-L, but it is close enough with Ruud to make things interesting.

I haven't crunched the numbers, but presumably there's a configuration of games that could keep the three-way tie, and then it would be Zverev and Alcaraz because they're ranked higher than Ruud.

 

[Moxie]

Both matches today were entertaining, I thought. Even despite the scoreline in the 2nd match. I agree with @Kieran that Medvedev seems to have lost some of his focus, and along with it, his mojo.